Here we go again with strong reports, major revisions, and very suspect data.
Understanding the Lead Chart
Before discussing the March 2026 data, it is important to understand the lead chart.
Every January (typically), the BLS has annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls and household population employment. The BLS does not back revise the household charts.
Because the BLS does not back revise, we see ridiculous numbers such as employment rising by over 2 million in a month (first yellow arrow).
To correct for the population adjustments, the BLS provides an adjustment series to normalize employment levels to match nonfarm payrolls. The BLS calls this “experimental” data but the regular posted data is known silliness.
The experimental series is LNS16000000, “Employment Adjusted to CES Concepts“.
For 2024, the BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.
For 2025, the BLS admits that it overcounted employment by 1.4 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2026.
We did not suddenly add 2.245 million jobs in January of 2025, all US-Born. (Difference between the dashed blue line and the yellow line).
Moreover, there is no valid historical data on full vs parttime employment, on foreign born employment, and many other BLS data series. And there won’t be. There are no back adjustments key data components.
All posts on foreign-born employment, parttime employment, etc., suffer this flaw. All year-over-year (or December-to January) analysis you find on these stats is permanently flawed.
BLS Notes
Effective with revised data for January 2026, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey.
The 2026 update was delayed by a month due to the 2025 federal government shutdown. With the release of February data, all household survey data for January 2026 were revised to incorporate the new population estimates.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS did not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2025 and earlier months.
The “usual practice” paragraph above explains why the published data series is flawed.
Again, all standard year-over-year household data comparisons are therefore nonsense.
Experimental Data for March
BLS states it is planning an update to the original 2025 experimental series to account for the size and timing of the updated (2026) population controls, extending the backcast to the April 2020 Census base where applicable. However, this update is not yet available and will be provided “as soon as practicable.”
Although we do not have all the month-by-month revisions we need, we do have the baseline number.
For March, the “Research series, employment adjusted to CES concepts, seasonally adjusted” was 156,843,000.
That is an employment decline of 217,000. In contrast, the BLS main report says employment declined by only 64,000.
Realistically, this means the unemployment rate is bogus as well.
My Charts
I will continue to use what the BLS refers to as “experimental data” in my charts because the official series household data is admitted nonsense.
Year-over-year household data comparisons are simply wrong. When the BLS releases the full experimental details, I will update the lead chart.
The BLS normally releases that series in January. The BLS did post full-year data in February.
However, the BLS has not yet released the month-by-month revisions. So, the solid red and yellow lines on my chart (or any other chart you can find) are not as shown.
Meanwhile, my lead chart, while the best anyone can do, is still inaccurate.
The household data, including the stated headline unemployment rate, is bogus.
Monthly Job Report Details
- Nonfarm Payroll: +178,000 to 158,637,000 – Establishment Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +92,000 to 274,858,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -396,000 to 170,087,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 to 61.9% – Household Survey
- Employment:-64,000 to 162,848,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: -332,000 to 7,239,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.4% – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: +488,000 to 104,771,000 – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 8.0% – Household Survey
Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector
Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +178
- Manufacturing: +15
- Construction: +26
- Leisure and Hospitality:+44
- Private Education and Health Care: +91
- Professional and Business Services: +2
- Information: -3
- Financial: -15
- Retail: +10
- Wholesale: +3
- Government: -8
In February, private education and health (down by 42,000), was impacted by strikes.
The rebound in March was expected.
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000
- The change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000.
- With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 7,000 lower than previously reported.
Part-Time Jobs
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: +101,000 to 4,947,000
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +39,000 to 22,728,000
- Total Full-Time Work: +335,000 to 134,676,000
- Total Part-Time Work: -188,000 to 28,478,000
- Multiple Job Holders: -14,000 to 8,357,000
The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.
These numbers are highly unreliable for reasons noted above. Year-over-year comparisons are invalid, period.
Hours and Wages
- Average weekly hours of all private employees fell by 0.1 at 34.2 hours.
- Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees fell by 0.1 hours to at 33.1 hours.
- Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell by 0.1 hours to 40.0 hours.
A tenth of an hour does not sound like much. But multiplied across 158 million, that’s a lot of hours.
Of course, this data is only as good as the data collection.
Hourly Earnings
This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.
Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.09 to $37.38. A year ago the average wage was $36.11. That’s a gain of 3.5%.
Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.05 to $32.07. A year ago the average wage was $31.02. That’s a gain of 3.4%.
Those gains are reportedly beating inflation. But that’s nonsense too because the CPI does not count property taxes or homeowners’ insurance in its calculations.
Unemployment Rate
Alternative Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
- The official unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.
- U-6 is much higher at 8.0 percent.
Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.
The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.
As noted above, the entire series is flawed.
The more accurate experiment data shows an employment decline of 217,000 for March. The published unemployment rate is based n a decline declined by only 64,000.
In addition, the entire series is flawed by poor response rates, deportations, illegals not answering phones etc.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.
The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.
For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
Birth-Death Methodology Explained
I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the usual calculation is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report?
I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number.
Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey
- The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
- The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.
If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.
Negative Revisions
On September 9, 2025 I commented New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming to Job Reports
The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.
Sure enough. With the January 2026 report, the BLS revised nonfarm payrolls lower for last year by over 1 million jobs.
Foreign-Born Employment
The numbers in my charts are seasonally adjusted. Foreign born employment is not adjusted, compounding comparison errors.
And we have no BLS revised data for foreign born employment. So, all such foreign and US-born comparisons with BLS data remain nonsense.
A second major problem with foreign-born employment is the BLS makes no distinction between US citizens who were foreign born and genuine foreign workers.
Final Thoughts
The annual benchmarks are posted but the experimental, far more accurate detail isn’t.
All the household data is flat out wrong.
Do not make year-over-year comparisons on household data.
The best series is the “experimental” data but the full BLS is again delayed.
More Huge Negative Revisions Are Coming
Q: How do we know that?
A: For details, please see my February 27, 2026 post BLS Private Payrolls for 2025 Q2 Overstated by ~847,000
The Business Employment Dynamics report shows -321,000 vs Payroll report +526,000. Believe BED.
Finally, although everyone knows (or should know) how awful these reports are, the markets still react to the data. For example, the immediate reaction in the bond market was higher yields.
Related Posts
February 11, 2026: BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs
For the second year, the BLS annual benchmark revision was hugely negative.
February 11, 2026: Another Look at the Incredible January 2026 Jobs Report
Do you believe the nonfarm payroll report for January 2026?
The bottom line is: Wee there an increase in jobs or not? I can’t tell from that commentary. By the way Trump is president for the next three years!
If this spike is “adjusted” downwards in the next 12 months I will be convinced.
The fix is in and has been for years, I’ve been trapped in disbelief.
What a convenient time – spectacular job growth in the midst of a failing war.
President Donald Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shortly after the release of weaker-than-expected jobs data. In August so there is that.
Just want to appreciate Mish for this. His breakdowns are probably second to none.
“The rest is disability fraud”
From March 2015 to March 2021, disability was fairly flat at ~30 million. Exactly with the roll out of the vax, disability increased distinctly, even now maintaining that same angle of increase so that we now have 36 million disabled. The vax seems to have made people more “fraudulent” for some reason.
Population – With a Disability, 16 Years and over (LNU00074597) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Trump took whatever little credibility the government had and somehow made it even lower.
Just a few Points:
1. Erika McEntarfer (Nominated by Biden), was Fired by Trump for groundless reasons according to various sources. The reality however, is that Erika McEntarfer‘s Position as Head of the BLS, serves at the pleasure of the President. There is no legal requirement to give any reason. So was this all simply BS and just meant to stir up controversy. They should put their energy to better use, and fight to have the rules changed perhaps.
2. So now under the same rules, William Wiatrowski served as the acting BLS head. And then finally Brett Matsumoto was appointed as the new BLS Commissioner, and is pending Senate Confirmation.
3. Seems like a straight forward, and accurately done set of circumstances. All done correctly.
Trump said he fired her because she was trying to make him look bad. From Copilot: “What Trump said about firing Erika McEntarfer
According to reporting from The Independent, Donald Trump publicly accused Erika McEntarfer, then‑Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), of manipulating jobs data to harm him politically. In a Truth Social post, he wrote:
“I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes.”
He also claimed the jobs numbers were “rigged”, according to POLITICO, and called for her removal immediately after a weak jobs report.
Context from the reporting
Thanks as always for your excellent Unenjoyment Report works.
Myself, I’m a pretty big fan of U6 due to it’s comprensive and less flawed (my understanding?) nature.
Checkout Shadowstats.com. It has its critics but you get CPI and employment data that is as before Reagan and every administration thereafter monkeying with the numbers to make them look better through modeling GIGO.
The fat canary is singing:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/half-of-planned-us-data-center-builds-have-been-delayed-or-canceled-growth-limited-by-shortages-of-power-infrastructure-and-parts-from-china-the-ai-build-out-flips-the-breakers
Excellent link.
On shoring was always a ruse by Trump that his cult and those that voted for him in ‘16, ‘20, and ‘24 were sold on. Neither Trump nor his advisors were or are capable of implementing such a policy. It was and is another bankrupt idea by The Donald that he couldn’t execute like his casinos, his hotels, his airlines, his university, his ties, his steaks and almost EVERYTHING this buffoon dressed up in suit playing a businessman and now president has failed at.
But he could implement tariffs that was another grift by the Grifter-In-Chief so he could make more money for him, his family and those in on the grift but never MAGA.
The man has been a grifter his entire adult life and in ‘24 was enabled by an electorate searching for an easy fix to a problem that took decades to create thanks to some of the same people voting for neoliberal politicians or not voting at all.
A short 6-months ago if I had made this comment as I’ve done in other commentaries about Chump’s trade, tax, fiscal, defense, healthcare, economic, foreign affairs etc., policies, I was accused of TDS.
I have to ask, who was and is deranged if you still buy into Trump’s lies?
Will this information be used to drive Fed policy?
If so, what will that mean? If not, then what will drive Fed policy?
Asking for a friend.
The Fed may use ADP numbers as well, but even an improvement MoM in ADP numbers would lead the Fed to hold or raise rates.
BLS = Bureau of Lying Statistics
This started with St. Reagan due what this Manchurian candidate of the Right and his supply side puppeteers implemented in the guise of efficiency but in fact cutting back on real data collection through surveys.
GIGO
And why would Ronnie Raygun’s economic policy marketed as Reaganomics, as if it were a new economic theory invented by him but was in fact a retread of the GOP 1920s economics and 1920s fiscal policy, begin gutting data information conveying inflation and jobs information?
To whitewash their failed economics by reporting falsified data on CPI and jobs.
So Trump is in fact only is only copying on steroids what the mind addled Reagan started to make his economy look better.
Rinse and Repeat
b
meantime the forestry dept is moving to Utah https://morethanjustparks.substack.com/p/breaking-trump-administration-orders
The pigs are stampeding.
For being called “The Bureau of Labor Statistics” the BLS doesn’t seem to understand either labor or statistics all that well.
Key Point
For March, the “Research series, employment adjusted to CES concepts, seasonally adjusted” was 156,843,000.
That is an employment decline of 217,000. In contrast, the BLS main report says employment declined by only 64,000.
The research series is far more accurate.
Realistically, this means the unemployment rate is bogus as well.
Everything is lies and/or false. Haven’t had a TV in the house since 2023.
You’ll thereby be less misinformed.
Unfortunately, under the current administration, it is difficult to believe anything that comes out of dc.