The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Falter 1.7% in June
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June. Sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018).
Percent Sales by Price Range
Percent Changes From Year Ago by Price Range
The NAR’s Supplemental Data provides a look at regional differences.
Supplemental Data
Weighted Contributions
Down 10% on a 35.7% distribution overwhelms up 1.0% on a 39.4% contribution.
I calculate net weighted sales as -4.72% year-over-year based on the the NAR’s Sales Distribution Percentages.
Seasonal Adjustments
I bounced this off Calculated Risk who tells me there was a huge seasonal adjustment this year. To my way of thinking, seasonal adjustments should not affect year-over-year comparisons.
But it did, as presented.
It’s one hell of a seasonal adjustment.
Explaining the Sales Decline
Please also see Existing Homes Prices Up 88th Month: NAR Can’t Figure Out Why Sales Are Down
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Am I the only one who feels that we are being lied to 24/7/365 by everyone involved in the FIRE sector?
No you are not.
You just need to remember that leeches always want their hosts to be calm and relaxed and that the bloodletting is normal – just fine and must be this way.
After looking into the police and fire pensions in my suburban locale, a for sale sign might the best home improvement I can make. Thinly populated areas do not have that problem. Might be a good time to make that move before real erosion takes place.
Guess I bought into a declining market. No matter. I need a place to live and I’m locked in under 4% on a brick house in Norman, OK.
“To my way of thinking, seasonal adjustments should not affect year-over-year comparisons.”
…
Calendar effect. June 2018 had 5 Fridays. June 2019 only had 4. Existing home sales counted when closed. Many closings occur on a Friday for several reasons. 1) everyone involved due a check at closing likes a Friday close —> head to bank —> knock off early for weekend and celebrate 2) Buyer wants a Friday close in order to move in immediately. The mortgage is pro rated … clock starts ticking at closing. Closing on say a Tuesday and then not able to move till Saturday could easily cost buyer $hundreds.