Existing Home Sales Rise 3.2 Percent, Meaningful?

Let’s have a fact check on the NAR’s improving affordability claims.

The National Association of Realtors reports Existing-Home Sales Rise 3.2 Percent in May.

“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December. This is great news for the housing market and the economy,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum. Even with mortgage rates ticking up compared to earlier in the year, they remain lower than a year ago and are essentially at the long-term historical average. Income gains are also outpacing home price growth by a small margin in most parts of the country.”

Affordability Nonsense

“The new record-high May home price reflects solid fundamentals for homeowners and ongoing supply constraints,” Yun said. 

So we have record high prices and rising interest rates and Yun yaps about improving affordability.

But that’s what Yun’s measure says “The Housing Affordability Index registered at 105.6, up from 97.5 a year ago.”

Existing-Home Sales Month-Over-Month

Changes have been essentially trendless for years.

Key March 2026 Statistics

• Sales Month-Over-Month: 3.2% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month.
• Sales Year-Over-Year: 3.2% increase in existing-home sales year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million.
• Inventory Units: 1.55 million units: Total housing inventory, up 3.3% from April and up 0.6% from May 2025.
• Inventory Supply: 4.5-month supply of unsold inventory, no change from last month and down slightly from 4.6 months one year ago.
• Median existing-home price:$429,300: Median existing-home price for all housing type.
• 1.3% increase from one year ago ($423,700)—the 35th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Market Time: 29 days median time on market for properties, down from 32 days last month, up from 27 days in May 2025

Existing-Home Sales Year-Over-Year

Existing Home Sales Supply

The NAR does not seasonally adjust much of its data as evidenced by the above chart.

Nonetheless, we can see rising supply over time. But rising supply has not helped sales.

Existing-Home Sales vs Mortgage Rates

There are sometime jumps in sales when rates drop. However, there has not been any lasting traction.

Sales have basically gone nowhere even as rates fell from 7.62 percent to 6.05 percent.

But rates have risen again. The current Mortgage News Daily rate is 6.68 percent.

MND is more accurate than the Freddie Mac data in my chart because it includes points and fees. I use Freddie Mac data because I have a download from the St. Louis Fed.

The only conclusion is home prices are still too high, mortgage rates are too high, or both.

Synopsis

• Real Income falling
• Home prices rising
• Mortgage rates rising
• Yun claims affordability is improving

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