Among independents, the percentage drops to 19 percent.
Huge Warning Shot
The latest Associated Press NORC poll is a huge warning shot for Republicans. It shows Trump’s Approval Ratings Slip on the Economy and Immigration
In March 2025, a few months into Donald Trump’s second term, his overall job approval was 42%. Similar shares approved of how he was handling of the economy (40%) and immigration (49%).
Since then, fewer adults have a positive view of how Trump is handling his job overall, the economy, and immigration. Border security remains his best issue on the poll with 50% approval, including getting positive marks from nearly all Republicans, 19% of Democrats, and 36% of independents.
AP-NORC Trump Approval
There continues to be stark partisan divisions in how Trump’s job performance is viewed by the public. Overall, 6 in 10 have a negative opinion, including about 9 in 10 Democrats and 7 in 10 independents. Conversely, 8 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency.
Issue-specific approval ratings tend to show a similar pattern with disapproval outweighing approval and largely driven by partisan differences. There is one exception: border security. Half of the public approves of how the president is handling border security.
An extension of health care subsidies is still uncertain. Approval of Trump’s handling of health care was 34% last month; now it’s 29%. Most of the decrease comes from Republicans. In November, 68% of Republicans had a positive view of Trump’s handling of health care. Now, while still a majority, it is down to 59%.
AP-NORC Immigration
AP-NORC Issues
Republicans will not decide the midterm election. Nor will Democrats as a block. Rather independents, young voters, and Hispanics will. Add to that list non-MAGA republicans who have had enough.
In 2024,Trump made historic inroads on young voters, Hispanics, Blacks, and independents.
They were all upset with Biden’s handling of inflation, the economy, housing, and the border. Well, it’s Trump’s economy now and he has made a genuine mess of things other than border security.
Those who thought Trump would have a somewhat sensible policy on immigration were wrong. The hardline xenophobics in the administration won the day.
The lead graph is telling. Even Republicans struggle to say the economy is good.
Trump’s Response
Trump’s response is to tour the nation telling people this is the greatest economy ever, inflation is nonexistent, and affordability is a hoax.
Trump’s denial is the same as Biden’s, but even more extreme.
Powell Blames Tariffs for Inflation, Says Job Growth Is Negative
On December 10, I reported Powell Blames Tariffs for Inflation, Says Job Growth Is Negative
In the press conference, Powell blamed tariffs and said the BLS overestimated jobs.
And in case you missed it, please note President Trump Promised a Manufacturing Boom. Where Is It?
The answer is China.
Related Posts
December 13, 2025: Republican Congresswoman Calls Trump’s Immigration Policies Un-American
Miami Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar rips Trump.
December 12, 2025, Two Failed Senate Health Care Bills, Eyes on the House
The Senate rejected proposals from Democrats and Republicans. What now?
December 12, 2025: Trump Says Kevin Warsh Back in the Picture for Next Fed Chair
Will it be Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett?
A country with a miniscule savings rate cannot expect to enjoy ever increasing wealth.
What astounds me that it took until the latest report to identify TrumpCO as idiots for calling things “BIG BEAUTIFUL” and “GREATEST” and so on — which furthers my disdain for the Bullshit that is spewed by BOTH parties whenever their faction is in power.
American Politics are the model for a world full of Politicians who KNOW that repetition will fool some but not most of us.
Out of all the accounts that post here on Mish’s blog, I think yours is the most likely to be from a foreign government. Every single post features fatalism & false equivalence and an insistence that US self governance is hopeless. It’s what I would instruct my lackeys to post if I was trying to undermine a foreign adversary.
Why blame the voter in the mirror when it’s more comfortable to blame someone somewhere out there?
Stop whining.
This is hard data that democrats are smarter than republicans. And democrats are not really smart, to begin with.
Yes, if the smartest kid in one of my classes could not utter a single piece of good sense, then the entire system is considered a failure. We are fucked.
Who are these 56%? How is it that people getting bs’d to infinity and beyond keep getting snowed with the same utter nonsense? Oh right, they think being loyal to a party is a 2 way street. LOL, the naivety is stunning in its consistency.
Those 56 percent of “leaders” are elected by the same fools that think Voting “counts.”
“Those who thought Trump would have a somewhat sensible policy on immigration were wrong. The hardline xenophobics in the administration won the day.”
There was a mass invasion of illegal immigrants under Biden.
Not really true. What happened was immigration collapsed during COVID and then bounced back dramatically over the next couple of years. If you averaged it out it was pretty consistent with the decade overall. It was similar with inflation, it collapsed under COVID because the economy was shutdown then exploded after it was reopened due to supply chain and employment issues. The media of course works hard to make it all about politics.
People have goldfish memory. Also, those goldfish are delusional. Democrat voters are the most reliably obedient voting block today. They believed the economy was good, inflation was just a mirage and the border was fine.
There’s no point in attempting to reason with delusional people. See Jon’s comment.
Cute. That in no way contradicts what Mish wrote. Biden handled it poorly; and now Trump more than overcorrected the other way.
Trump got away with calling things hoaxes when they were things your average politically disconnected American didn’t have direct knowledge for … (russia, impeachment, tax fraud, etc, etc) but calling affordability a hoax (which is basically ‘who are you going to trust? me or your lying eyes’) will undermine people’s support and make them question if they were lied to all along.
Exactly. Makes it easy to say none of these people should ever be re-elected for anything ever an easy conclusion to reach. Yet most of our congress are incumbents. Riddle me that.
We’ll see how they feel next summer after everyone files their 2025 tax returns. A lot of people will receive higher returns and/or have to pay less taxes.
Also, many people vote for the lesser of two evils. Republicans are the lesser of two evils.
People rarely vote for the lesser of two evils, they mostly vote their pocketbook which is how Trump got elected last time around. And it won’t matter if people get higher tax refunds if their healthcare costs doubled and inflation is out of control with endless rate cuts.
Polymarket not looking good for republicans.
https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms?tid=1765817108267
Agree that people vote with their pocket book. They voted for Trump as they knew their pocket book would be A LOT worse if they voted for Harris.
They voted for Trump as they BELIEVED their pocket book would be A LOT worse if they voted for Harris.
Fixed that for you. It should be very clear by now that even Harris would not be this bad at the job.
So, if a wonderful Man #2 approached you and you later found out that he had the CLAP, after a hot night … and then you found out earlier that Man #1, last night’s date, had genital worts: you would love Man #1 more, right?
But, your Love is easy. You have no standards.
And, you will SLEEP (VOTE) for anyone who is presented so long as he is from your side of the tracks.
Wake up: both Men are flawed. Both men Lied to you. BOTH MEN MADE YOU ILL.
So you’re still not sure who gave you the clap?
There are only two times in my adult lifetime when the economy has actually been good: the mid 1980s and late 1990s.
Those are the only two times when it felt like all boats were rising and things couldn’t get any better.
I would add the late 2010s up to Covid to that list.
The republican party(those in the driver seat) has made the voters think everything is culture not policy. It will be interesting to see if those voters would actually vote for a dem. Or even primary a moderate republican.
When dems get back in power it will be about trans in sports etc because republican policies are not good for the average republican.
The whole trans in sports was an incredibly rare occurrence and I doubt anyone would be silly enough to promote it again. The right act like it is the bread and butter of the left regardless of the reality. All’s fair for these parties in their extremist representations.. I am hoping for a true moderate from either party to get some traction in our polarizing press.
‘Trans in sports’ is still a current hot button issue judging by the number of stories in the last few months on foxnews.com
A piggy will always react angrily to the word trans, and fox sells rage.
The only culture war topic I care about is litter boxes in public bathrooms. If there’s no litter box, I just take a dump on the floor in protest.
You do know the real reason some classrooms have kitty litter in a closet. Yes? No?
Trans-gender-bender-genital-mutilation-there-are-67-genders nonsense is still being shoehorned into every headline and plotline the woke marxists can get away with. The damage to corporate profitability is still catastrophic. The damage to society is even higher.
People tell themselves the weirdest things.
He thinks 67 has something to do with gender oh my god.
Yup they will find something. First it was black people them gay people now trans
Yeah i did not make my comment to really be about the issue. Im not a fan of trans in sports. I guess they have a lot more issues than most people so i will cut them some slack. But its such a small topic. I would rather have the debt addressed. But that would not be easy.
The way i see it if you are a citizen of this country and you want to wear a dress / go to church / shoot guns etc have at it. Just dont hurt anyone else who is trying to live their dream.
The economy has been poor for many years. The stock market, which many mistake for the economy, keeps going up. Consumption, which “powers” our economy, relies on “number go up” (increasing P/E multiples) instead of increasing production. So either the Fed prints money or the stock market prints it. While the United States relies on financial “deals”, China actually produces something. It is almost like the Eloi and the Morlocks.
While Trump didn’t cause this situation his policies to counteract this trend are actually making it worse. The main causes are systemic (reserve currency, Fed QE encouraging “wealth effect”, poor anti-trust enforcement, stock based compensation and stock buybacks, convoluted tax code, unlimited campaign contributions, etc.) and happen to varying degrees under either party.
I am not optimistic because I see no acknowledgement of reality, which means when reality hits it is going to hurt bad (or worse).
Just like the collapse of the British Empire which thought it could rely on managing the finances of all its dominions.
However, I think it is potentially worse for the US. A great creation of the US – AI – will destroy jobs. As the US economy has evolved to efficiently allocate capital rather than manage labour it is almost uniquely exposed to a sudden massive drop in employment. Countries with a strong social safety net may manage the transition better.
Independents represent the plurality of voters, and decide the elections. Politicians, if they want to keep their jobs should swing to the left or right during elections, while governing from the center for independents. Imagine if Trump had:
I could come up with a dozen more, but Trump could easily win over independents and moderates of both parties and set MAGA Republicans up to rule for a decade. But he is tied into the worst instincts of MAGA instead of showing true leadership. And sadly, MAGA would do whatever Trump told them to do, because they believe he is a very stable genius.
And… he’s a lying, narcissistic moron.
Trump seems to only be interested in the trappings of power; such as destroying the East Wing so he can build a huge ballroom. There are plenty of places in DC that have big ballrooms.
I imagine that he wants to replicate his daily experience of descending a grand staircase to an adoring gathering of dressed-to-the-nines, all standing, applauding him rapturously, while he graciously receives their adoration.
That affirmation is what he lives for, not the annoying details of how to replace Obamacare, or negotiations with the other side.
Yeah instead they tend to run to the sides then swing to the middle at elections. Being in the middle does not separate you from the other side.
Forget the far right. The kids want a ‘United States of Europe.’ On social media, the upcoming generation is expressing more European solidarity than the continent has seen in decades.
https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-of-europe-online-propaganda-social-media-memes/
The “United States of Europe” panic is always amusing — especially from Americans. The US already runs a far more tightly coupled union than the EU ever has: federal taxes, debt, courts, police, currency, and states with much less real sovereignty. So the sovereignty lectures don’t really hold.
To Mish’s credit, he criticises both Washington and Brussels. But figures like JD Vance don’t. Vance defends one of the most centralised federal systems on earth while attacking the EU for “threatening sovereignty”. Basically nationalism with selective blindness.
A united, strategically autonomous Europe isn’t feared because it’s authoritarian — it’s feared because it competes. A fragmented Europe is comfortable. A strong one isn’t.
The kids seem to understand that. Funny how many adults suddenly don’t.
Europe is not that competitive anymore, given the recent German energy collapse. Whatever is competitive in Europe has been bought by the Chinese or is co-owned by them. These surveys are fake, to support the “war on Russia” narrative.
Former European here. And the kids over there nowadays are as clueless as the kids over here.
Europe is not that competitive anymore, given the recent German energy collapse. Whatever is competitive in Europe has been bought by the Chinese or is co-owned by them. These surveys are fake, to support the “war on Russia” narrative.
Former European here. And the kids over there nowadays are as clueless as the kids over here.
What they want is to not starve in the streets… which is the next act in this Fascist shitshow.
As a former European, I’ve been hearing this since the early 1990s (when it was “European Economic Community”, and federalist groups were considered a marginalized cult). The reality is that they have the unelected elites in Brussels to piss off most members, and have turned desire for unity into just tolerance.
Lately they’ve been promoting militarism and potential “War with Russia” to cover their historically enormous political failures. Hence the surveys.
Every administration gets blamed for the economy. That’s mostly global cycles and bad luck. To be fair to Trump, he inherited a deteriorating global situation that would have challenged anyone.
What isn’t excusable is the drift into open, transactional corruption — enriching himself, family, and allies. Corruption isn’t victimless. The cost always lands on the public. This is why it amazes me that the Republican numbers are holding up.
When Amazon pays ~$40m for a Melania “documentary”, that money doesn’t come from Bezos — it comes from Prime subscribers. Repeat that pattern across branding, licensing, crypto and foreign money and it adds up.
Bad economic policy is cyclical. Corruption is extraction. The bigger question — and the one worth watching — is whether all this confidence is based on the assumption that prosecution can be avoided entirely. If so, how? That’s the real risk to the system – what is he cooking up to avoid the orange suit.
You are dead on I voted for Trump all three times. Hillary and the Clintons were perhaps the most corrupt organization in modern history in this country That was an easy choice. And let’s be honest, the democrat policies on immigration would destroy this country so they had to be stopped But the grift with Trump is not good I mean it started with his personal attorney on day 1 and only gets worse But I would still vote for him over the democrat options and their policies
how are the Clinton’s more corrupt than Trump?? he’s literally making billions from foreign governments (Saudi Arabia UAE, Vietman etc…) while negotiating important policy issues with them (tariffs, weapons sales, chip sales).
he owns a crypto company and has made bilions from that while making decisions on crypto policies. he called TikTok a massive security risk then flipped when it helped him win and they gave him $$. now it’s likely to be sold to his buddy Ellison. i could go on and on.
the things i mentioned are not debatable, Trump isn’t denying any of it. On the Clinton’s it’s all conspiracy theories and nonsense. T
I guess that’s a positive of sorts: Trump is openly corrupt. Corruption is bad in politics because the corruption influences decisionsmaking which is in his interest not ours, that it’s open is doesn’t undo any of that. but it confuses people to think its ok because he’s not being covert about it. when you hide something it makes you look guilty. his genius is not hiding it. and MAGA doesn’t care.
bu bu bu whatabout…. BS!
The republicans are gonna get trounced in the mid-terms if things stay as is and that will mean the house will impeach Trump, and if Republican losses are bad enough maybe the Senate will convict. So a Trump stimmy might not be far off the cards.
Why do you feel that there will be credible mid-term elections?
Exactly. His behaviour only makes sense if he assumes accountability isn’t a live risk. That’s the tell. Once the New Year is past, I wouldn’t be surprised if things get a lot more “creative”.
If not the minority will be eaten by the majority and you can take that to the bank…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-isnt-certain-his-economic-policies-will-translate-to-midterm-wins-455e0d46?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcyLOykBGzy2aCI1dKBrEOBXBhQ4PAJjDzBgy_fNAvQUZK3KmGff1J7&gaa_ts=69400e54&gaa_sig=Gf_detWl9pQnpDbkCWDgi4QgiSjnRMHf2TQe_X7iIULQdOSWFvTyWrXyRoNuXaKjT_iB9uWrwEkRVX8hn9f5lA%3D%3D
President Trump conveyed uncertainty about whether Republicans would maintain control of the House in next year’s midterm elections because some of his economic policies have yet to take full effect.
I gotta give credit to Trump for knowing his economic policies are a total failure.
323 days until November 3 midterms….;)
“Trump’s response is to tour the nation telling people this is the greatest economy ever, inflation is nonexistent, and affordability is a hoax.”
And sadly, many in his cult will believe him. Just like they believe him when he says the same things about his first term. Even though the US lost 2.7 million jobs in his first term. And gained 16 million jobs during Biden’s term.
I wonder what the jobs numbers will be after his second term? There’s a good chance they will be negative again.
It is difficult to find success in anything Trump has done except promote himself and in killing people without due process.
Ideal GOP presidential material then /s
Asset owners are happy, wage earners the opposite. I guess the politicians will tackle affordability by spending more money. lol