FiveThirtyEight discusses how politics shapes how people perceive the economy.
The U.S. economy is objectively awful right now. The unemployment rate is at levels not seen since the Great Depression and this quarter’s decline in gross domestic product is expected to be the worst on record. Most economists believe it will take years to recover from this recession.
In the most recent Quinnipiac University national survey, 69 percent of Republicans described the U.S. economy as “excellent” or “good.” Similarly, nearly two-thirds of Republicans in both Civiqs’s daily tracking polls and in a June 11-15 Associated Press/NORC Poll said that the nation’s current economy is at least leaning toward good. By contrast, only around 10 percent of Democrats thought that the national economy was doing well in those surveys.
Of course, the difficulty is that these attitudes aren’t just partisanship either. After eight years of Obama’s presidency, racial and economic anxiety became increasingly intertwined to the point that racial resentment was a much stronger predictor of economic pessimism under Obama than it had been under George W. Bush. That is, white people — especially white Trump voters — believed that Black people were getting ahead while they were left behind.
Take the 2016 American National Election Studies survey. Before Trump took office, the more racial discrimination white people thought their own group faced, the more likely they were to say that the economy was worse than it had been a year earlier.
Greatest Economy in History
China’s Fault
Great Day for George Floyd
Trump even said Jobs Numbers ‘Great day’ for George Floyd.
Trump Approval Rating
Approval rating chart from FiveThirtyEight, anecdotes are mine.
Core Support
When Trump makes a Tweet or a claim, no matter what it is, his core supporters tend to believe it.
Core support is roughly 36-38% of the country and perhaps 80-90% of Republicans.
They will back Trump no matter what he says or does. And in the case of the economy they believe what he says as well.
Independents Will Decide the Election
Similarly, there is a huge percentage of core Democrats who will automatically disagree with anything Trump says or does.
The core voters in neither party will not decide the election. The independents and swing voters will.
Each dip in favorability ratings represents a dip in how independents will vote. And that shows up in the polls as well.
Florida Polls
Going back a bit further, Trump is behind in 14 consecutive polls.
I discussed the setup in Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?
Key Reasons
- Independents go for Biden by 22 points (40-18 percent); however, a large number, 42 percent, are undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.
- By wide margins, Florida voters prefer Biden to Trump to manage immigration (50-40 percent), coronavirus (49-36 percent), and race relations (52-34 percent).
- By a 4-point spread, they trust Trump (47 percent) over Biden (43 percent) on the economy.
- Defections among core supporters are part of the president’s problem: 9 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of those who approve of Trump, and 8 percent of 2016 Trump voters back Biden in the matchup.
So Trump can appeal to the base all he wants, but he better do something about independents, race relations, and immigration.
Instead, Trump has been going backwards.
If Trump does not win Florida, the election is over.
Think about the economy for a bit. How does “greatest economy ever” sound to 20 million people out of work?
The core may be convinced, but that won’t matter anyway. What about the independents?
Mish
Thank you Cuomo for the the state of the ny economy. Don’t forget the nursing homes or is that Trump’s fault as well. While we are at it lets see if we can blame Trump for the cival war as well!
Dump the Trump
Polls are worthless at this point and Mish knows that. The fact is that this election will not be decided on the economy, or any of the other peripheral issues. It will be decided on political positions. It will be decided on whether we want the United States of America to become the socialist / communist state that the Democrats clearly want it to be.
The Democrats have shown their true colors to the country in their support for the domestic terrorists burning and looting our cities. The Democratic Governors and Mayors have given their permission to destroy our history and deface our monuments. They have allowed thousands of people to become victims of the violence and destruction.
The American public has witnessed this firsthand it the images are burned into their psyche. The independent voters who decide every election, are moderate by their nature, looking at both sides without particular allegiance to either. They look at the issues, and the issue in this election is whether we want power in the US turned over to a party which supports the socialist / communist agenda of BLM and Antifa.
The Democratic party has clearly thrown their support to the actions of BLM and Anitifa and they cannot separate themselves at this point in the game.
This is the issue which will decide the election.
Our choices in November are a 77 year-old life-time politician, who is developing cognitive problems, vs. a 74 year-old NYC real estate developer with narcissistic personality disorder. The Founders knew the system they designed wouldn’t last a century. The system is well past its expiration date and is stinking up the whole house.
Look for Biden to choose a woman of color as VP…then she will become the first woman president…Biden is toast…in more ways than one…and this election…sorry Trump…is not about the economy…only to your Wall Street cronies…this is about status…
In my opinion Trump is less scary than AOC and Antifa. That will be the choice.
I hope not. I hope Trump sees the handwriting on the wall and withdraws before their Convention. If Trump stays on the ticket, the Republicans will be slaughtered, and lose the Senate as well as more House Seats, and AOC’s type will get everything they want.
Let me guess. You’re white and you watch FOX News regularly.
That’s the only reason to be afraid of a 5’2 lady and some peaceful protestors.
You missed the part about the hundreds of victims of violent attacks, and the thousands of lives ruined by the looting and arson. Thankfully the American public did not, and they will forever associate the domestic terror they witnessed with the Democratic party and their authoritarian agenda.
Good ol’ antifa. A non existent fox news created boogeyman. My favorite part about the whole antifa thing is that the name means Anti Fascist. Since when did the right start openly supporting fascism?
Antifa is truly anti-fascist the same way Rev. Jimmy Swaggart is truly a man of God and Caitlyn Jenner is truly a woman. Anyone can call themselves anything they want.
Many of those clowns have always supported fascist KKK for fear of the minorities.
Short term, that will be presented as the so-called “choice.” As if which of turd in a sewer you pick as your favorite, really matters.
Longer terms, we’re good to go though. Seeing as how the, infinitely better than either of those alternatives in every possible way, Taliban is still going from strength to strength. And are simultaneously outbreeding the above turd show at least three to one. Hence, even if present life under a jackboot in the camps is no better than life in any other concentration camp, the future doesn’t look quite so bleak.
Revisit the topic after the end of July.
You’ll see even worse outlook then. It will continue to plummet through the election
Stock market is drunk on Fed juice and provides cover like a fig-leaf for Trumps naughty bits.
I don’t think most core supporters actually believe all the rhetoric of their leaders, they just say they do when asked because they’re supporters. For some reason they take a side and stick to it regardless, like a cult.
Although they can’t make it official, UBI and deflation is here. I suspect the dems will be less generous if they win big.
Biden is already committing to fully reverse the Trump Tax Giveaway and normalize capital gains taxes for wealthy people.
That money is going to go towards debt service as well as some extra long term support for people needing training to participate in the 21st century economy.
…and to fairydust which which will make hope and change great again….
Dear Leader just has to steal some more. Then, he will be even Dearer to all his children!
Dear Leader Trump did steal. About a trillion a year, for starters, from our grandkids, to give to his biggest campaign donors.
we can all search the internet and find articles to fit our narrative…ie:
At the same time you have to look at those who feel they have been left behind…and trump did not drain the swamp by putting Mnuchin at the helm of the Treasury…he fleeced 35,000 people to the curb with Indy Mac and then sold it and walked with a cool $235 million…
So please don’t tell me that either party cares a list about the “middle Class” or any other class…
As a swing voter I was thinking seriously about voting for the Donald in Nov. Not now. It is rare to see such ineptitude, stupidity, and lack of common sense in a leader during the series of crises over the last 4 months.
Like you could handle these problems better? Do you think Biden could do a better job handling the problems? Give me a break.
Tu quoque is a fallacy.
Normally, politicians gain huge amounts of popularity in times of crisis. Virtually every world leader has 20% more popularity than they did before the crisis. Canada, England, France, New Zealand, it doesn’t matter. They are all up. Even Cuomo in NY gained popularity, despite the massive death toll in New York. All a politician needs to do is to say something like “This will be a very trying time. I’ve assembled a team of the best experts I can find, and we will be getting guidance from them. We are a great country, and we can beat this if we all work together. ” Having said that, anything that happens to the economy is not his fault. Deaths are not in his control, and he can’t be blamed for those, either.
Instead, Trump said “poof, it will go away on it’s own”, and suggested drinking disinfectant. He assembled experts, then disregarded them, refusing to wear masks, and mocking states that did try to fight the virus. He led the resistance to following the recommendations. As a result, if the virus turned out to be nothing, he might gain support, but he took ownership of any problems in the economy, and took ownership of every death.
He initially had a win-win position, where he would gain support if the virus turned out to be nothing, and he would gain support if the virus turned out to be serious. Instead he took a win-lose position, where he would lose support with every case and every death. His popularity is down as a result, but that was a choice he made, so he really can’t complain about it.
Trump in usual fashion spoke stupid making it way to easy for democrats to claim he did nothing. Unfortionately he did act, with democrats calling him crazy for doing it. Like closing the border from China. What is important is the complete insanity on the left has made it possable for Trump to bring world peace, and they will say he RUINED THE WORLD. This is no longer about Trump all republicans are now getting this treatment. If this continues, goodbye republican party. hello mob rule
First you ask 20 questions about Trump/Biden, then you ask how the economy is going. Gosh, I wonder what responses you’ll get.
How about if you prime the people you’re polling with questions that get their minds to hear a question as, “Gosh, an act of God happened and it was bad. Now, given that, is the economy doing worse or better than what you would expect after this disaster?”
Or, first you ask a question to remind the people whether their party is in or out of power. Then you note the positive correlation between the party that is not in power and the economy. (As@Realist points out that’s as easy as finding a + correlation between the economy and the party in power.) Then you ask what they think of the economy.
You don’t actually believe this is an “Act of God”, do you? The timing is UNBELIEVABLY suspicious. The Bankers were going to need a massive bailout right about now, CV or not. This Miracle Microbe provides blame-free bailouts. A little TOO perfect if you ask me.
Were they bribing the participants? Who thinks the economy is good? No one I know, everyone is scared. When the unemployment ends and rent/mortgage comes due it’s gonna be a really big weight on everything and everyone. Plus there may be a return of lockdowns..
I’ve had several people cancel home improvement projects. They’re almost instantly replaced with new ones though..bummer because I’d really like to get some fishing in.
The mere fact that there are “opinion” differences about whether “the economy” is “doing great” or not, should, but of course won’t, illustrate quite clearly to the dunces how useful all so called “measures” of “the economy” really is.
I wonder if a single person in the US believes in the “greatest economy ever” idiocy. Either people don’t pay attention and therefore wouldn’t care about that statement, or they know that we’re an overly financialized economy, basically a Fed-run, debt-laden Ponzi scheme.
It’s a weird talking point for Trump to keep returning to if there is no audience for it. He would be better served harping on China or protestors, where he could at least try to make a cogent point.
I think disconnection from the economy is to be found worldwide , before the pandemic, and more so after.
Does anyone know where this is all headed now ?
What I see is people looking for government support, people trying to guess how anything will be in a few months time, starting from a variety of often synthetic previous bases of one kind or another, starting from positions that were already disparate, not only in terms of wealth and opportunity, but in so many other ways as well.
Insecurity is going to be amplified for those opposed to a government due to this, not because of the nature of a government per se, it would be the same but reverse if the opposing team were in power, but because of the new reliance on governments that is taking place.
Surprised the Dems are so negative. The tech industry is mostly liberals, and they are VERY well paid. Bankers too claim to be liberal.
Most Bankers and Wall Street Types only side with the “Left” for political cover. It’s like a shield against criticism, but most don’t ACTUALLY want to pay more in taxes.
Most Democrats in all industries recognize the need to fund government as part of our civic and patriotic duty. The Republican strategy is to rack up the credit card and leave the bill for the grandkids.
Given that Democratic America is the moneymaking, productive part of the economy, it makes sense that Democrats understand pay as you go.
Given that Republican states are generally subprime economic basket cases, it is no surprise they end up going the payday lending route on national finance as well.
They got that playbook from the democrats! Or did you forget obamacare already.
Obamacare is going to be saving a lot of people in red states who would otherwise die from the GOP’s incompetent handling of coronavirus.
I like the almost-immediate 80% improvement in the Trumptard perception of the economy from 11/16 to 1/17. Miraculous!