Household Pulse Charts
I created the above chart from Household Pulse Surveys by the Census Bureau.
This is week #12. Data were collected between July 16, 2020 to July 21, 2020.
Here are more charts I made from the survey data.
No Pay
Nearly 100 million people reported no pay in the reference week. Of them 37,744,514 were retired.
62.173 million people were not retired and received no pay. 4.293 million said they did not want to work.
Those with no pay but were not retired bottomed on June 23 at 55.780 million.
Some people who are retired still want to work at least some hours.
Number Employed
130.003 million people received pay in the reference week. The number of people employed peaked at 134.855 million for the survey ending June 16.
Did Not Work
117.952 million people did not work in the reference week.
Some people who are retired still want to work at least some hours.
Expect Income Loss
87.333 million people expect an income loss in the next four weeks. Income loss is by household, not individually.
Clock Ran Out
As noted on Sunday the Clock Just Ran Out on $600 in Weekly Unemployment Benefits.
Roughly 130 million people are receiving some form of pandemic aid.
Those with no pay or little pay will be hammered this week.
“So Far Apart on Covid Deal That We Don’t Really Care”
These are huge numbers, especially the 62 million who received no pay at all.
Nonetheless, Trump says “We are So Far Apart on a Covid Deal That We Don’t Really Care”
Mish
Dems have nothing to lose. Republicans have everything to lose. $600 is too much in some states, but $200 is ridiculous. These are human beings. Let’s treat them as such.
iPhone sales are up BIG. People claim they have no money but then they go splurge on a 500 dollar item.
There’s nothing to lose.
It’s not the cash-strapped threadbare soon to be evictees buying the iPhones, silly. It’s the rich people who have the money and the good sense to not go to restaurants.
The rich can’t buy that many iPhones.
iPhone sales were flat before the “recession”, but now they are up 8% in America alone. I am guessing people are skipping rent to splurge because that’s just what Americans do.
All we need is a means test, set it at $600 for those who really need it, phase it down to zero at $50K annual income. Why can’t they pay on a graduated scale?
I see a lot of advertisements for jobs. On trucks all the time. Gotta work and do something different for the time. This government induced paralysis is just obscene. Where the heck was Obama to not have planned for something like this in the future? He was in office for 8 years and we have no warehouses with PPE for healthcare or public? Where are ANY of them-Democrat or Republican? Regarding jobs, my company needs people to do extra coverage (overtime), but no takers. But I listen to these deadbeats complain about expenses. Piss on them. I’ve worked since I was 12 years old. I’m doing great and waiting for the real estate deals as I’m a landlord.
Recent survey on small business. NFIB:
“Most borrowers (71%) have now used their entire loan. The 29% still using their loan are likely not far behind.”
“Sales levels are still more than 50% or less than this time last year
for about one-in-five (21%) small businesses still in operation with another 32% at sales level of 50-74% from last year. Almost half (46%) are nearly back to where they were with some exceeding pre-Covid sales levels.”
“About 23% of small business owners report that they will have
to close their doors if current economic conditions do not improve over the next six months. Another 22% of owners anticipate they will be able to operate no longer than 7-12 months under current economic conditions”
And Trump floats delaying the election ..I predicted he would try to delay the election several weeks ago.
The central valley in California is out of normal ICU bed capacity, and are now starting to use surge capacity. This is now, before the fall surge of the regular flu. If we don’t significantly lower the infection rates there will be mass deaths.
This will start to become evident in more parts of the country. We will run out of doctors and nurses to treat patients. You will be sent home to die.
When the beds are full I will stop going in to my critical job, it is not worth the risk. I help run a large portion of the power grid. If we get outbreaks in control centers the grid will eventually collapse. Food supply chains will start breaking down, water operations, all the things that most of you believe just work. Flick the switch and your lights come on, open the faucet your water runs, until it doesn’t.
Plan accordingly!
No pay but can afford video games and all sorts of digital entertainment. Do you trust AMD, TSMC, etc or these people?
Cut off all aids and throw muppets to the wall!!!
Since the mortgages, HELOC, car loans, student loans and credit card lines were all funded with money conjured out of thin air, then they should all be paid back with same – nothing.
Got gold?
The part that many seem to be missing is that the fiat credit conjured out of thin air is being used to make legal claims on assets which will matter at some point in the future. People with first access to that money have a financial advantage over everyone else that cannot be understated.
We’re all in this together ?
That’s an Interesting chart. Will add that next Wednesday
The numbers for those not paying / delaying rent / mortgage are abysmal.
Any shortfall will have to be made up … and likely sooner rather later to avoid the naughty list.
The delinquency / default rocket ship has already left the launch pad.
Credit will tighten.
Bad credit – due to the process – takes months to play out. But when it does …
Meanwhile, the fish are flapping in the receding waters … “investors” are gleefully running to scoop them up …
“Nearly 100 million people reported no pay in the reference week. Of them 37,744,514 were retired. “
How many of those 62.173 million people are over 55 and could conceivably live out the next few years (until they hit 62 years old) on unemployment/disability scam money and spousal income? Or just spousal income? How many of those people will demand early access to their SS benefit? How quickly will the congress cave and destroy the “trust fund” even faster?
When the times get tough, the Keynesians start printing!
“When the times get tough, the Keynesians start printing!”
…
Pray tell what have they’ve been doing the past 4 months??
Wait till they find out the printer will run out ink / paper.
pffft! Spending is back to normal for poor Americans https://qz.com/1885473/spending-is-back-to-normal-for-poor-americans-but-not-for-rich-ones/
It’s shameful and sickening and out right criminal. Along with these facts of 62 million,..there is also the fact that the Republicans were attempting , via the Trump administration, to stick it to the American citizen by funding the FBI building with $1.75 billion,..merely to protect a Trump property.
Absolutely unbelievable.
When asked about this funding McConnell said “I wasn’t aware of it.” Ah,…dude it is your bill you were attempting to present ! McConnell has lying down with Pythagorean accuracy,…’cept he got caught.!
“More than 150,000 Americans have died from coronavirus, millions are unemployed, state and local governments are struggling to stay afloat, and Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump are more concerned about protecting Trump Hotel,” Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on Government Operations, told Government Executive on Tuesday. “That is shameful.”
When is Trump going to send China a bill for our lost wages, like he promised? I want a 4K TV for Christmas.
focus on the positive. how many had pay?
How many had pay is going to be a continuously shrinking number since tens of millions have no income now.
Yup. When your car has a flat, focus on the 3 that are still inflated.
Sarcasm can be tough to pick up on.
I actually got a 10% raise and permanent work from home out of this. Our 300k household income is un-dented, and I get to move my straight-democrate-voting-until-the-GOP-stops-acting-like-kooks self to a lower cost of living red state, where my vote counts for multiples of what it does here on the coast.
So that’s nice. However, at least 30 million people are in deeeeeep shit right now.
At some point it will become clear to all this heavy handed approach is not necessary and is going to cause more heartache, misery and death than this virus.
Which is usually the case with government policies, they make things worse.
Aren’t the states in the southern US generally the ones that avoided a heavy-handed approach as much as possible? If we assume that other areas in the US (due to shared culture) will behave somewhat similarly to those areas if given the same conditions, wouldn’t that suggest we have the ‘clarity’ that you say you are searching for?
Or is that too easy?
I think this virus is here for the forseeable future and luckily is only going to kill less than 1% of the population under 65 so we need to get back to work and use common sense/good hygiene practices just like with the flu or salmonella.
Destroying lives across the board shouldn’t be acceptable but thats exactly whats being done and I have no idea why it’s not clear to everyone thats what is happening.
“Destroying lives across the board shouldn’t be acceptable but thats exactly whats being done and I have no idea why it’s not clear to everyone thats what is happening.”
Lives are being destroyed by the virus. Not by whatever feeble, half hearted attempts at “lockdown” has been attempted in the US. People stay home and withdraw from economic activity, because they are worried about getting infected. The more widespread the virus is, the more worried people get.
The only way to get people back to economic activity, is to reduce the fear of getting infected. Even a one-to-a-few percent chance of something as horrible as death, is plenty enough to scare most people off the court.
A reliable treatment or vaccine would accomplish such fear reduction. But unless/until something of that nature is available, the only way to make people feel safe enough to come out pf hibernation, is to reduce contagion to the point where contracting the disease is so tiny that people simply no longer worry about going out.
I’m out everyday working and talking with people and almost no one agrees with this and almost no one is scared of the chance of catching this ( even people who should be ) or cancer or car wrecks or diabetes or heart disease etc. We want to get on with our lives.
Less than 1% under 65 will die from this.
How many people die before the age of 65 from anything else? or get sick and have their quality of life reduced?
Seriously Stuki, you’re smarter than this, where’s your perspective man? you must know some people who didn’t live to 65…it happens all the time.
“I’m out everyday working and talking with people and almost no one agrees with this”
Are you in a rural area?
I talk to people in fairly rural, or at least sparsely populated, places the Rockies, and they mostly do have that attitude. But mainly because contagion where they are at, is low. And the jobs done there, tend to be of the outside and lots-of-space-per-person variety.
OTOH, far and away most people I communicate with in both LA, San Francisco, New York, Boston, Seatlle and Houston; as well as Spain, Sweden and other parts of Europe; and to a lesser extent Asia and Latin America, all in denser settings; are very concerned about getting infected, about their parents getting infected, about sending their kids to school where they’ll bring the virus home, about secondary flareups etc.
Precious few will want to just “go on with their lives” against the backdrop of what went on in Lombardy, Wuhan, Spanish and Belgian cities and New York. Or, closer to home: Even in rural American settings, how many meat packing workers just want to get on with their lives and get back to work as usual, when half their colleagues are keeling over?
The purpose of the heavy handed responses in China and Asia, as well as in Italy, Spain and New York, was to try bringing contagion levels and risk in the denser areas hard hit, down to the lower levels seen in many rural areas. Such that city dwellers, which are by far most of the population by now, can also feel relatively confident that the disease is not that big a deal. Since until that is the case, no amount of Trump “opening up” will amount to all that, as far as people being comfortable with fully participating in the economy again goes.
I’m not in a rural area, I’m in the state capital of CA. I always keep a face mask in my breast pocket and ask customers if they’d like me to wear it, they almost always say no. The only couple that has were a young couple who wore masks themselves and stood about 12′ from me in the front yard.
Most people acknowledge that this virus is likely at least 10 x more prevalent than the testing shows so one could logically assume this is far less deadly than was thought to be.
Earlier in this post toinfinity shared that he and his wife both had it and aside from a scary high fever were unscathed. 99+% under 65 are going to be just fine and if the infection rate is higher than the testing shows, which it almost certainly is, the case for treating this as a serious flu type virus is even stronger.
I would think you are only seeing a very highly selected slice of the wider Sacramento population, then.
In general, if people genuinely didn’t care nor worry; those, like you, who do keep places of business open, when many/most others are shut, would see a massive ramp in business. I’m not sure about you, but that is not the case for most who try toughing it out and remaining open in SF and LA.
In a story not too long ago, 50% of the people said they wouldn’t take a vaccine shot at all. Only 25% of black people said they would. And of course, we have Robert Kennedy Jr. stirring the virus pot. Want to rethink you hope about a vaccine solution?
Kennedy Jr. Warns Parents About Danger of Using Largely Untested COVID Vaccines on Kids
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. warned against mandatory COVID-19 vaccination in a debate with Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz, pointing out that ‘key parts of testing’ were ‘being skipped’
27 July 2020
The fact that Polio was not eradicated on the eve of the day the vaccine was announced, didn’t make the vaccine useless.
You’re always going to have distribution of attitudes among people. Some will be so darned fed up with lockdowns etc., that they’ll be willing to take a bit of an early-adopter risk to get the vaccine. I’m just guessing, but I would think older people who don’t have that much of life left to live, will want to do something other than being holed up in a bunker for those years, and may be willing to face the risk of some long term side effects should they live to 95.
While, OTOH, I suspect many parents will be cautious about putting their kids on the front lines as vaccine testers.
Thing is, though; that attitudes are shaped by experience. The 75% share of black people who won’t take it now, will invariably shrink the longer the vaccine has been in wide circulation without side effects.
People learn from the experience of others (despite the best effort of patent trolls, ambulance chasers and idle “owners” of “the righst to” outdated trivialities to make doing so more difficult and expensive.) It’s how humanity adapts and moves forward.
So you have to get stuff out there. Some will work, some will fail. But by selecting for that which works, and then improving on that; eventually you’ll end up with a Toyota, despite starting off with only a Model T.
Here’a another article about vaccine hopes. Now what’s you gonna do, bunky?
It’s not over when the vaccine arrives
Sam Baker, Alison Snyder
July 27, 2020
The extra suicides in my country far outnumber the amount of SARS Cov2 deaths
I suppose the entire world has mishandled this Covid virus? You are seriously misguided. Here in NY the economic and job loss impact would likely have been significantly greater than what was experienced with the orchestrated shutdown. The fatality rate would have gone thru the roof as well. The one thing that businesses cannot stand is uncertainty. Allowing the virus to run rampant in NY would have created an extremely challenging business environment. While each individuals reaction to this virus is different, I can assure that it is particularly nasty for a significant portion of the population. My wife ran a 104 fever for over a week and that is with Tylenol every 6 hours. Thankfully she never developed any difficulty breathing but it was worrisome. I on the other hand had a fairly mild reaction. Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
What you should be railing against is the complete ineptitude shown by Trump and his response team. Our national response to Covid makes us look like a third world country but that is to be expected I guess when you have a third world level president complete with nepotism.
I’m glad to hear you and your wife were some of the 99% who got this and survived.
This very article your posting on is about the widespread economic destruction that I’m saying is just now starting to snowball and was/is unnecessary because less than 1% of people under 65 will succumb to this.
The blame for this engineered virus getting out into the world exclusively falls on the CCP.
The US has done a terrible job at being honest with it’s population and giving good advice to them.
Fed is hell bent on propping up this rotting basket case of an economy just enough to buy a few more months to get past the election,if there is one,after that well let’s just say DC might be a free fire zone!
Don’t forget to subtract the 10 million receiving Social Security Disability.
I watched McConnell on NPR Newshour tonight get interviewed. Didn’t sound like that $600 was going to make it into any agreement. Which is a good thing. The more people are hurting, the more clamor we get to reopen the economy and resume business as usual.
Paying People Not to Work Is Not an Economic Stimulus
By Stephen Moore
July 28, 2020
“The more people are hurting, the more clamor we get to reopen the economy and resume business as usual.”
You got it backwards.
NO I don’t. Of course, the proviso is that the government is not handing out free money to help keep people unemployed, which is where the hurting comes in.
I don’t necessarily disagree about the government, but you’re still getting it backwards:
The hurting stems from contracting a nasty disease, as well as from fear of doing so. Both of which increase, as distancing is reduced to what used to be “business as usual.”
At the margin, “lockdown” policies and the rest may have some, at least temporary, effect. But ultimately, what is keeping people away from economic activity, is fear of getting sick. Not what Trump and/or Newsom may prattle on about.
The vast majority of people who contract CV19 suffer nothing worse than perhaps a bad flu. The fear and panic is caused by the constant fear mongering on TV news. Forcing people into a position where they have to go back to work or move out of their home and go hungry is the way to beat the overreaction to this mostly nothing-burger disease. I WILL NOT subscribe to YOUR fear.
The vast majority of people who drive drunk, don’t suffer much more than a hangover, either. Yet shutting down Uber to force people into their cars at closing time, is rather unorthodox, to say the least.
Instead of “forcing people” to stick their heads in the sand and pretend the guys next to them on the meat packing line didn’t somehow contract a rather nasty contagious disease; the focus should be on making it cheaper, easier and less costly for people to transition to work which are more “virus compatible.” Even if pay is lower, as long as costs come down enough, people can get by with lower wages. And even if less people-dense modes of production is less efficient, it’s still better than no production at all.
You really don’t understand how economies work or how everything is interrelated, do you?
RE: “The vast majority of people who contract CV19 suffer nothing worse than perhaps a bad flu.”
The inherent foolishness of that statement is in the simple fact hat no individual can know ahead of time whether they are going to have a “sniffle” or a “bad flu” or end up with permanent organ damage for their significantly shortened life or lose their life and perhaps severely and permanently impact the “economy” of their own family (if they have one).
The fools who actually think that statistics apply to individuals rather than to populations/samples are at the forefront of the moronic “reopen the economy and resume business as usual” clamor.
What part of “vast majority” don’t you understand? It’s only a two word phrase. Look it up.
Everyone can’t be protected from every risk in the world.
RE: “vast majority” … once again that is a statistical metric that has no bearing whatsoever on any individual’s outcome from COVID-19.
That is why most sensible people ignore assertions like yours … or at least consider them little more than a possible “guide” to what their risks/benefits when engaging in particular behaviors might be … and how they will deal with their own individual being and circumstances and those close to them.
RE: “Everyone can’t be protected from every risk in the world.”
But all sensible individuals in the world do what they can to protect themselves and the ones they love from those risks. And they ignore covidiots like you who spout statistics that only apply to populations and samples as nothing but a possible “guide” to the behaviors they are willing to risk their individual well-being on.
If they hear that taking vitamin D shows a significant statistical relationship to better COVID-19 outcomes, they might very well start a vitamin D regimen, because the cost is minimal and the risk is too. But only the foolish person believes that they have guaranteed themselves a better COVID-19 outcome. They no doubt hope that they will benefit from the vitamin D, but the statistics in no way contribute to their individual outcome … their individual outcome, whatever it might be, contributes to the statistics.
4 unemployed per 1 job opening great plan. Thousands of business closed permanently. Let’s get that 1 out 4 working and see if we can’t get the 3 that have nothing to buy crap. This plan will turn the country into 3rd world hellhole in short order.
For those that said lives matter more than economics. Well lives = economics.
This is heartbreaking.