Year-over-year PCE inflation jumped to 3.8 percent. The Fed wants 2.0 percent.
Five Measures of Inflation Percent Change from Year Ago
- CPI: 3.81
- Core CPI: 2.75
- CPI Rent: 2.79
- PCE: 3.77
- Core PCE: 3.29
PCE Inflation Detail
PCE Year-Over-Year Details
- PCE bottomed in April of 2024 at 2.3 percent, now 3.8 percent.
- Core PCE bottomed in April of 2024 at 2.6 percent, now 3.3 percent.
- PCE goods bottomed in September of 2024 at -1.2 percent now 4.4 percent.
- PCE services bottomed at 3.3 percent in February of 2026, now 3.5 percent.
PCE Month-Over-Month
PCE Month-Over-Month Details
- PCE: 0.40 percent
- Core PCE: 0.24 percent
- PCE Goods: 0.73 percent
- PCE Services: 0.25 percent
Angry US Consumers
US consumers are downright angry and it reflects in the polls.
Angry consumers also shows up in two key measures of sentiment and consumer credit delinquencies.
Related Posts
May 19, 2026: A WSJ Opinion Article Tries to Explain “Why Everything Feels More Expensive”
The WSJ explanation is hugely lacking. Let’s discuss.
May 26, 2026: Consumer Credit Stress Is Comparable to the Great Recession
Auto delinquencies are at a new record and credit cards are near record high.
May 28, 2026: Inflation Expectations Surge in Two Distinct Consumer Confidence Surveys
57% of consumers say high prices are eroding their personal finances.
The second wave of inflation is just beginning. Pay attention to the criminals in D.C., do what they are doing, ignore what they say. It’s 1973 again, BUT this time we have 120% DEBT/GDP. Go ahead Warsh, you corrupt motherfucker, raise those rates, I triple dog dare you!!! Speaking of criminals, anyone notice that Peter Theil is moving to Argentina? How ironic, Argentina has been experiencing hyperinflation for years, and that is where America is heading. Hedge Accordingly.
the Federal Reserve calculated that inflation would be much lower without Trump’s tariffs.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0505-mau
Inflation is going to get worse as oil prices are poised to head higher.
Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher
Exxon Mobil warned Thursday that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in coming weeks, forcing prices to spike and curbing demand.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” said Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman at a conference hosted by Bernstein in New York.
“I mean really, really low levels,” Chapman warned. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”
The price of physical Brent oil cargoes will spike to $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows in coming weeks, the executive said. “When the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance,” he said.
Brent futures for July delivery, the nearest contract, closed under $94 per barrel Thursday as investors once again held out hope for a settlement between the U.S. and Iran that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s closure of the strait has cost the market more than a billion barrels so far, the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Oil stockpiles have mitigated the impact so far, but that “can’t last forever,” Chapman said.
The IEA warned earlier this month that inventories are being depleted at a record pace. The organization’s members agreed in March to release a record 400 million barrels to lessen the impact of the supply disruption.
Oil industry executives have warned for two months that the crude futures market is not reflecting the scale of the disruption triggered by the war in the Middle East.
“I don’t know, whether it’s two to three weeks or three to four weeks,” Chapman said. “What I’m really saying is, once you get to the minimum inventory levels and all-time low inventory levels, there’s only one way to go. That’s the situation.”
Guess I am going to be impressed when Trump spins this development as winning, NOT! Trump was right about one thing; we will be winning so much we will get tired of it. I’m not only tired of so much winning; I’m fed up with it.
Prices up, interest rates up, so, negative cash flow for most, plus Medicaid and food aid cuts kicking in soon. I expect a rise in homelessness in my area. So more crime, street drugs, etc.
Yes, but the Epstein Files are locked away, Trump and his cronies are safe and blithely playing pump and dump games while dipshits make excuses for them, so why should Trump care?
And here is another reason inflation is only going to get worse from the President that promised to get inflation under control and no more wars:
Defense Funding Put in Context-2026-05-27
What a mess! Literally no one is proposing anything close to repairing it.
Peter Schiff puts some interesting meat on this inflation bone with comments about war effects and their impact on Japan primarily but China as well and the resulting sale and/or purchase suspension of US debt. It is worth the read:
Propping Up the Yen, Again and Again | SchiffGold
I’m really glad I’m not in debt, or trying to grow a business or a family right now. Sad to say that though, as it is obviously not all about me. But this can come back and bite me in the assets, free and clear as they are: the ones I plan to liquidate, to pay for things.
The problem is not inflation at 3.8 percent. The problem are the huge fiscal deficits that will sooner or later have to be monetized by the Fed. At that point, we will all miss the „good times“ when inflation was only 3.8 percent.
For every problem there is a solution, you probably ain’t part of it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/wealthiest-investors-de-dollarization-trade.html
Like I said, get what you can and get out. Latin American & Africa? Young fertile grounds….
Got exit strategy?
Higher prices, higher interest rates. Debt service out the wazoo. What could go wrong?
Excellent post but we need a musical tribute and I have the perfect song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ml3nyww80
Official start of summer is June 21. Put it on your calendar guys.
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
DUDE! June is PRIDE MONTH, then comes JUNETEENTH!
Which is kind of strange celebrating Black stuff during the Gay month when Blacks really don’t seem to accept Gays all that well.
So Zappa’s Bobby brown goes down is more of a June song.
It is actually about the decline of the US with pretty straight forward observational lyrics.
Jesus Grandpa, you better get that cemetery plot squared away with the way your age is showing
I’m well versed in many things.
You must be one of those Boomer haters out to slice and dice society to make yourself feel better about your inner child not getting enough mommy time.
Phil are you like Elliot Page?
I recall when she was Ellen Page on Trailer park boys and Regenesis.
That is why you got jealous right PRIDE MONTH is very special to you.
Who in their right ind picks on Frank Zappa, total free speech guy, one of the worlds greatest guitarists, and had very insightful commentary regarding politics and society in general.
Zappa also has an excellent old MTV interview where he discuss many things including bands getting onstage and playing the exact same songs the exact way every time.
He attacked racism in the music industry.
Back then MTV wold NOT play Black artists.
Now turn the OF AI off and do some Zappa research.
He was pretty cool on Miami Vice as well.
“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.” ― Frank Zappa
So we return again to having a negative REAL Federal funds rate. The Fed will lend to the banks in its fascistic banking system for free.
You and I don’t get that deal… rather the Fed pays for that subsidy by devaluing the money in our savings accounts.
Finally someone who uses Fascist properly.
Thank you Benito Mussolini.
Better yet he actually co-wrote an essay defining the term and ideation behind it.
The banks and the government are in a sort of marriage.
A bank director can’t so much as go to the bathroom without the bureaucracy’s permission. If the govt says buy US bonds with zero interest in 2020, they do as they are told. The bank spies on all its customers for the govt. On the other hand, they are protected and bailed out when need be. In addition to the marriage of corp. and govt interests, there is the autocraticness of money by fiat (with competition outlawed) and the obedience by the banks to dictates from on high. Another indication that banks are an appendage of govt. is that they are the only people other than govt employees who don’t work on MLK day.
Fed’s Musalem says it’s risky to bet that AI will ease inflation
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-musalem-says-its-risky-bet-that-ai-will-ease-inflation-2026-05-28/
Sure but it will make the virtual women more filthy.
You haven’t seen anything yet. The SPR reserves down another 9 million barrel last week, last week was 9.9 million, 17 million barrels off the lowest level in 40 years.
As I said months ago, inflation will spike higher than the previous 2022 high & yields will spike with it.
The peace deal that they’re telling everyone everyday that’s near complete is total BS they are so far apart it’s an impossibility. Expect a resumption of attacks after markets close Friday or shortly after.
Oil is not falling due to good news, it’s falling because of massive dumping of reserves, manipulating the real shortage in supply & creating a false abundance.
The last leg from the stool that I believe Iran can kick out is to announce their intent to retaliate in size to GCC liquid fuels infra in response to any Israeli attack on Lebanon. This would put Trump in a real bind, and expose his lack of coherent strategy and leverage even further.
Now flip it and assume that TPTB actually have a coherent strategy based on controlling the 8.5 billion people, excluding themselves of course.
For example how just when EV’s started dying out more people are now looking at purchasing them. I also see more electric bikes and scooters than any ear before.
This all has been gamed out and TPTB always wins cause we ain’t nothing but stats.
TPTB paid Roman thumbs down death signer not wanting the cat out of the bag.
Riddle me this, with all the AI and data center stuff and tabletop/wargaming society has done for god knows how long why would anyone NOT think those with REAL power have alternate plans?
“As I said months ago, inflation will spike higher than the previous 2022 high & yields will spike with it.”
You mean we will long for the days of Bideninflation? Lol!
I have never seen a decade, year, or month without inflation of some type.
I guess that is the cost of Capitalism.
Capitalism makes everything cheaper, the Fed manufactures inflation to stop that from happening. You may wonder why?
It’s to enslave the population and keep them working. Most people will be happy to pay off their house, live modestly and enjoy life but you can’t do that when the currency is continuously debased.
There are many systems of control: economy, religion, politics, monetary system, etc. All designed to give the slave the illusion of choice.
Capitalism makes everything cheaper as long as competition exists. When the competition ends then it becomes a monopoly which chases profit as a metric of success.
Long term Capitalism is a death spiral.
Walmart killing mom and pop stores for example.
Capitalism works until it doesn’t, same with Socialism or Communism.
They all peak then end in a death spiral where the genpop fend for themselves devolving into tribal groups which start the cycle over again.
Much like Army ants following an errant trail that crosses itself and winding up circling to death.
I really hope the aliens have a better way.
It is impossible to tax the people (using that forbidden “T” word) to pay for what the people demand. The People want to free-ride, and insist that their politicians serve that up, with a sugar coating. So, the stealth tax is mainly inflation. (Tariffs are another one). These have regressive-tax impact because rich smart people can engineer work-arounds.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
Banks don’t lend deposits. As Dr. Scott Sumner says he believes FDIC should be abolished entirely. Lending by the banks is inflationary. Lending by the nonbanks is noninflationary. The 10mo rate-of-change in money flows is still accelerating (as of April’s #)
But when things swing to deflationary, there is a run on the non-banks. And what do they have to top it up? Bupkis. So all that money literally disappears, it is destroyed, absent, driving a deflationary spiral.
Bullshit. The real commodities that the REAL economy requires do not disappear. Anyone with a REAL trade or real skill is fine as they can still TRADE. Stop with the banker scare tactics. Deflation has always been part of the real economy and a real business cycle. Once we switched to a fractional reserve system, bankers no longer offered anything of real value to the real economy and The Fed decided to eliminate deflation (allowing bad businesses and bad decisions/behavior to actually FAIL – assets deflate) and this is the whole reason why we are in the mess we are in. Without deflation the BAD DEBT cannot clear. That the whole problem. Fuck off and learn a useful skill or just tell us what bank you work for already (loans are no longer issued from savings generated from real work). This is the problem you get when you allow a select few to simply create “money” with the click of a mouse.
You fight stagflation by draining bank reserves while driving the banks out of the savings business (aka The 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act)
This does not reduce the size of the payments system. The NBFIs are the DFIs customers.
Driving the banks out of the savings business makes them more profitable and increases the supply of loan-funds in the long-term market for the nonbanks.
This was the first “credit crunch” and there was an interest rate inversion with no recession. Real interest rates rose for saver-holders.
The Trump administration is using unprecedented tactics to test the boundaries of how it can control taxpayer money that Congress has budgeted, threatening one of Congress’ core functions under the Constitution – and one of its strongest checks on executive power. https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2026/0528/trump-congress-spending-authority
Yeah but Don Jr. needs the money. Five kids already, and a new destination wedding.
Thank you Jewish billionaires for your dual? loyalty, buying our congress and president, and removing Thomas Massie since he is one of the few who isn’t bought, and pushing for a war with Iran that is not in America’s best interests and that has driven up prices.
Legal watchdog calls Park Slope Food Coop ban “discriminatory” as the international movement to boycott Israel pursues gains
https://forward.com/news/827614/park-slope-food-coop-bds-israel-palestine/
Israel is the Nazis now, unashamedly committing genocide in Gaza and now Lebanon.
Yes Israel is getting discriminated against, but discrimination against Nazis is what any decent human being should do.
Well what about anti-gentilism? If they engage in anti-gentilism, why do they have the gall to complain about anti-semitism? We gentiles – black, white, asian, hispanic – all need to stand up against jewish supremacism which is the real problem. I am not sending my kids who are euroasian to fight for an ethnostate that would not have them as a member and nor should any other American [LOL: kind of like the old Rodney Dangerfield joke! :)]
If you live in a culture that demeans the other the other will always be attacked and shamed.
When it continues to happens and becomes applauded by the dominant culture then the abuse is taken to the extreme limit possibly.
Goy has always had a pejorative ring to it, now that you mention it.
That was a paraphrase of Woody Allen’s main joke in Annie Hall
Thanks for the education. Both were before my time, but Rodney Dangerfield is more my cup of tea.
They have clever cover, they can be Nazis and it can still be considered impolite if not inappropriate to call them the same given they were the literal Nazi’s victims. I am not suggesting they are using it for cover, merely thinking it would BE good cover.
Israel works the holocaust sympathy angle hard when it needs to. They are utterly without empathy or shame if you aren’t Jewish.
talk to a Jew https://youtu.be/B7iXSQI28Ww?list=PL8-p5zYASsuJa9_FOwkU_UlJK0L13bKio&t=884
U.S.-Israel Free Trade Area Agreement (FTA): Enacted in 1985, this was the first FTA signed by the United States. It eliminated duties on most manufactured goods and exempts Israeli goods from the Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF). To qualify, goods must be wholly produced in Israel or undergo substantial transformation with at least 35% of their appraised value added in Israel
Anti-Boycott Laws: Federal regulations (administered by the Department of Commerce and Department of the Treasury) make it illegal for U.S. persons or companies to comply with or support unsanctioned foreign boycotts of Israel. Participating in these boycotts can lead to criminal and civil penalties. [1, 2, 3, 4]oing that.
How can one say we live in a free country when there are laws against protesting peacefully, via boycott and divestment, a foreign country? This is insane. I can say whatever I like about any other country or boycott them but not Israel?! Why does this not get the blood of every red-blooded American boiling – is it due to the farce of Christian Zionism, the biggest fraud ever foisted upon the gullible, Christian goyim? The fact that BDS was permitted against the Dutch-descended Afrikaaners who simply built a European civilizational outpost in sparsely settled San Bushman territory and subsequently faced the ethnically very distinct and separate Zulu/Bantu tribes which swept southward from northern parts of Africa and swarmed both the Dutch and the San in overwhelming numbers, exterminating and killing many other tribes all along the migratory journey southward. And not to mention the first concentration camps were implemented by the British to defeat the Boers in the Anglo-Boer wars. But somehow that was wrong for them to keep the first world outpost they had built but the Jews can do far worse to, not to mention kill far many more of, the Palestinians aka the San Bushman of Palestine. As in 1984, some animals are more equal than others in Animal Farm -Jews uber alle!
In case my first post gets dumped it is against Federal law to boycott Israel plus has other fun bonuses to imported Israeli goods.
Why limit to the Jewish billionaires?
Look at Jerry Seinfeld or any other celebrity that is pro-Israel.
Then again it doesn’t really matter what religion you are you still blindly dump money into the faith. That exists worldwide.
Even the sex cults get funding.
Honestly it is WE THE PEOPLE who allow this to continue.
Just as honestly there is no way WE THE PEOPLE can salvage this mess.
My hope is the sun goes Nova because human nature will simply repeat the same Psychopathies forever.