I have a blast following German polls and pronouncements, especially from the Greens.
First, let’s take a look at AfD.
AfD Cheers September 21
Greens Cheer September 29
AfD Cheers October 1
I have been watching this pattern for many weeks and no one seems to have caught on. This next image will explain.
AfD Spread Over Greens – Last 6 INSA Polls
- 3.5
- 3.0
- 4.5
- 3.5
- 1.0
- 2.5
Greens Spread Over AfD – Last 6 Forza Polls
- 2.5
- 1.5
- 3.0
- 1.5
- 2.5
- 1.5
Now that the INSA poll is out of the way, it’s pretty clear the Greens turn to cheer will soon happen again.
Demise of the Grand Coalition
Meanwhile note that support for the Union (CDU/CSU) “Grand Coalition” is slowly sinking into the sunset.
Support is at a new record low in the last two polls
The lead image shows the overall pattern.
Coalition Outlook
If there was an election today, the Grand Coalition would not have a chance according to any recent poll.
Even the Jamaica coalition, named after colors in the Jamaica flag (black, yellow, green), might not gather, or barely gather, the required 50%.
INSA has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26 + 10 + 14.5 = 50.5.
Civey has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26.7 + 8.6 + 15.7 = 51.0.
How long could such a three-way coalition last, assuming it got off the ground in the first place?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
How many years until poll lines for CDU/CSU and AfD cross like the pol lines for SPD and AfD just crossed?
CDU/CSU are still in deep denial and Seehofer is a wet sock as interior minister and has done almost no tightening in asylum policy or immigration policy.
Germany still allows asylum seekers and failed asylum seekers do whatever they want despite EU directives allowing failed asylum seekers to be put into detention until deportation and EU directives allowing asylum seekers to be kept in CLOSED residences during the whole asylum process.
Germany still grants asylum and subsidiary protection easier than other EU countries.
Germany still gives 50,000 “humanitarian protection” residence permits per year for asylum seekers that do NOT qualify for either asylum or subsidiary protection that it could sent back home instead because EU directives do not demand a category of “humanitarian protection” and most EU countries do NOT have a category of “humanitarian protection”.
A recent TV documentary by Der Spiegel showed – without irony – a Middle Eastern refugee of 30 years of age, with his three wives (!!!) and 7 children. They stay in a big house rent-free and he gets more than €7K per month in welfare payments on top of that because the family is so large.
He has already taken all the bureaucratic hurdles for asylum and could in theory start working – but he won’t work in practice, in fact he is not even looking for work – because that would actually CUT his monthly income.
One of his wives confided that they had never in their entire lives enjoyed a remotely comparable degree of luxury. You could see that she could barely believe it – evidently it was so exciting to her that she just had to tell someone (her hubby was a lot more taciturn when asked about his financial and work circumstances).
I imagine that Ms. Talkative Wife has already told everybody she knows in their country of origin about this paradise on earth they have found. 95% of German working stiffs would probably happily trade places with them in a nanosecond, if not for the social stigma it involves.
Needless to say, unless this system is radically reformed, Germany’s problems will escalate to the point where they become intractable.
Germany needs to get the heck out of the EU yesterday.
The entire population just isn’t going to stand for forever being designated patsy of last resort, for every retarded financialization scam played by the rest of the leeches forever; just because a generation of now dead once-were politicians, felt bad about being on the losing side in a war between people now dead.
Germany doesn’t need the rest of the clowns they’re tied together with in any way whatsoever. There’ll be a period of uncertainty past a clean break, and then they’ll be back to business as usual. Minus being bled dry for no other purpose than keeping leeches abroad, and deadweight profiteers at home, in unearned splendor.
One man’s leech is another man’s customer.
Actually Germany has benefited from EU more than any country:
Captive marketplace in Euro area that is less efficient than German industry so German industry wins more business in Euro area countries than it would if each EU country had their own floating rate currencies. Italy would produce many things they buy from Germany in Italy if Italy had a floating rate Italian Lira since it would be much lower than Euro and much much lower than German deutchmark so Italian products would win the german products based on price. In Euro area this does not happen.
Euro benefits Germany in exports to Euro area but it also benefits German exports to outside of Euro area and outside of EU because Euro is much lower than German deutchmark would be.
There has been much more consumption enabled by ECB telling that all Euro countries debts are 100% in accounting for Euro area banks buying government debt so the Euro countries have got more into debt than they otherwise could have and the money multiplier by banks has been much larger since Euro area debts are kept at 100% in accounting.
All debts are in Euro so there is no currency risk for debtors.
Now if only Italy, Greece and Spain could pay their debts….
Euro benefits Germany, nobody else.
Other countries in Euro that think Euro has benefited them have just hidden Euro caused economy destruction behind massive government debt bubbles and real estate debt bubbles.
This simplistic view of the effects of the euro may be superficially attractive, but as with many things, the simplistic superficial stuff is never true in economics.
This is beside the fact that it was the French that pushed Germany into accepting the common currency (it was one of the sub rosa conditions France demanded in order to give its placet to German reunification), because they figured that was the best way to emasculate the extremely conservative hard money policies of the BuBa.
They succeeded – tragically, for Europe.
Sorry, I should have added that I actually agree with a great many of the things you say – I only disagree that currency devaluation is an “advantage” or that Germany would be in a worse position without the euro – that is the particular point I consider erroneous.