A set of exit polls shows SPD is likely to hang on as “winner” of the Germany state elections in Brandenburg. But kiss the Greens goodbye. 
Olaf Scholz’s Party Narrowly Ahead of AfD
The Guardian reports Olaf Scholz’s Party Narrowly Ahead of AfD
At the Brandenburg SPD’s election gathering at the Old Post, a restaurant near the state parliament in Potsdam, there were jubilant cries as the news came in. One reporter on the scene called the response ‘cathartic’, after weeks of a nail biting campaign in which it looked like the party would lose to the AfD for the first time.
Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg’s leader, who had gambled his future on the result, saying he would resign if his SPD lost to the AfD, took to the floor around 6.15pm telling supporters he was relieved, ‘considering the starting position we were in”.
“We said we’d take on this battle and we said our goal at the outset was to ensure our land didn’t get a big brown stamp on it,” he said.
But he urged SPD members to “put on the euphoria brakes” as the final result was not fully clear.
What Happened?
AfD was strongly in the lead until about the beginning of September. Then there there was a late surge for SPD.
A quick check shows polls for Greens dropped from 7 percent to four percent and CDU from 18 percent to 13.5 percent since July.
It was the September shift of CDU from 16 percent to 13.5 percent that mattered. In actual results, CDU only received 11.5 percent.
Olaf Scholz’ is Germany’s Chancellor. It would have been a huge embarrassment for SPD to lose to AfD.
Tactical Voting Saved the Day, Hooray!?
I fail to see any coalition that makes sense. AfD and BSW are strongly anti-immigration. AfD is Eurosceptic.
If the Greens are out, as it appears It will be tough to form a coalition.
Coalition Math
15.5 percent voted for parties that will get no representation. Those votes will be assigned proportionally.
SPD (32) + AfD (29) + BSW (12) + CDU (11.5) = 84.5
SPD would get 32/84.5 = 37.87 percent of the proportion spread, 5.87 percentage points.
AfD would get 29/84.5 = 34.32 percent of the proportion spread, 5.32 percentage points.
CDU would get 11.5/84.5 = 13.61 percent of the proportion spread, 2.11 percentage points.
BSW would get 12/84.5 = 14.20 percent of the proportion spread, 2.20 percentage points.
A spot check of the math shows 5.87 + 5.32 + 2.11 + 2.2 = 15.5. That’s the percent of votes to be reassigned.
SPD/CDU Coalition = 32 + 11.5 + 5.87 + 2.11 = 51.48 percent. Hooray?
Assuming the numbers hold and my proportion explanation is correct, then mathematically, a “grand coalition” between SPD and CDU can work.
Ironically, if the Greens do hit the five percent threshold, it would take SPD + CDU + the Greens to form a coalition.
What a hoot!
In practice, no coalition makes any sense. So good luck with another German coalition whose only purpose is to suppress others.
A quick check shows SPD slipped from 32.0 to 30.7 but still leads. AFD gained as did BSW. The amount that will be spread also dropped a point. CDU steady. I highly doubt a coalition that exceeds 50 percent is even possible now.
Does German law provide for new state elections if a coalition govt can’t be formed in a given period of time? If so, what’s the time period?
Meanwhile, regional elections in the neighbouring Czech Republic saw the victory of the main opposition party which won 10 out of 13 districts, receiving 850k votes compared to 140k of the main government coalition party. The Green party equivalents crashed.
Program very much like Afd except not planning mass deportations since there aren’t too many migrants to begin with.
The Silent go along majority does not want to go along anymore
So the new BSW party is pushing out all the losers? BSW believes in using nuclear over renewable energy.
I guess Germany is going to need the various weak-tit parties to continue supplicating themselves to America and fucking up their own country until enough Germans wake up and turn the reins over to AfD.
The CDU should join up with AfD.
Agree – but no chance
Nu, bewegung zu der AfD ist die Zukunft – so denke ich.
Lol. Exit polls: ask about a thousand willing voters who they voted for, and make the conclusion from that sample.
Their main purpose in life is for regime change. You declare your favored party a winner, then claim the electoral cheating if they lose. It’s a well rehearsed script.
The exit polls were accurate were they not?
Good to see Sarah Wagenknecht’s party do well – I’m personally a big fan of hers… old Germany pre-Neocon
If these percentages hold, SPD could conceivably govern; courting support from CDU in some areas, BSW in others. CDU and BSW are somewhat “complimentary” from an SPD POV. And it still seems that the only thing “everyone” can agree on, is to keep AfD out.