A claim by Biden’s campaign spokesperson caught my eye today for being ass backward. Let’s discuss the claim. It’s my hoot of the day.
Biden Claims Trump is Hemorrhaging Voters
Here’s my hoot of the day courtesy of the Biden campaign via CBS News.
“I think it’s really important to understand that there’s only one guy in this race that is focused on solutions and making the lives of the American people better,” Kevin Munoz, a Biden campaign spokesperson, told CBS News’ Major Garrett on Tuesday when asked about how the campaign planned to turn around voters’ perceptions of the economy and immigration.
Munoz said the campaign is focused on “taking that message to every single American that will decide this election” and that Mr. Biden is “consolidating his base” while Trump is “seeing serious hemorrhaging with the voters that will decide this election, including those in the suburbs and women voters.”
“We’re seeing serious issues for Donald Trump with some of the key voters that we think are gettable,” he said.
Fact Check – Biden’s Worst Nightmare
As for who hemorrhaging voters, please consider Biden’s Worst Nightmare: Blacks and Hispanics for Trump
For more than two years, the president persisted in treating sharp price increases as a transitory phenomenon, even while “peak inflation” kept peaking until we reached a 40-year high. He likewise insisted that the surge in illicit border crossings was seasonal and nothing to worry about, even while border officials reported record levels of migrants entering the country illegally and requesting asylum to avoid deportation.
One thing Mr. Trump needn’t worry about at the moment, however, is waning support from his base. A new Journal poll shows that the former president maintains the backing of 83% of voters who supported him in 2020, and that support grew as his legal troubles mounted and Republican voters have assumed a defensive posture. Mr. Biden, meanwhile, has retained 73% of his supporters, a 10-point deficit that might not look so bad until you consider which voters have been abandoning him.
In November, the New York Times and Siena College released polling results in six swing states that are expected to determine the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The survey indicated that 22% of blacks would vote for Mr. Trump, along with 42% of Hispanics. In 2020 Mr. Biden won the black vote, 92% to 8% and the Hispanic vote 59% to 38%, according to the Pew Research Center. Black and Hispanic voters have been an important part of the Democratic base for decades, but these coalitions aren’t everlasting. In 2016 Mr. Trump won by energizing people who hadn’t been politically active. Now he’s stealing voters from the other team.A follow-up Times/Siena poll of voters nationwide was released this week and showed black support for the former president ticking up to 23% and Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden outright among Hispanics, 46% to 40%. The liberal press can’t comprehend why nonwhites would back someone who has spread conspiracy theories about Barack Obama’s birth certificate, smeared Mexican nationals and taunted his own former transportation secretary, Elaine Chao, for being Asian. But it’s not that complicated. According to the survey, more than half of all black and Hispanic respondents rank current economic conditions as “poor,” while 26% of blacks and 37% of Hispanics say they will vote for Mr. Trump because his policies benefited them personally.
Young Voters Bail on Biden
I did a search for “Biden losing young voters” and those were the first five results.
Vox attempted to whitewash it with What Democrats’ panic over young voters misses.
The most recent of the articles is The Hill report Biden Tops Trump by 4 Points in New Survey of Young Voters
The Axios-Generation Lab survey of voters under 35 found that 52 percent of respondents would vote for Biden if the election was held today, while 48 percent would back Trump. The survey noted that 70 percent of respondents said they were definitely planning or likely going to vote, while 30 percent said they were unlikely or not planning on voting.
Axios noted that a Pew Research Center analysis found Gen Z and millennial voters strongly supported Biden over Trump in 2020, by a margin of 20 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena poll in December found Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points among voters under 30. Other polls have also suggested Biden could be losing ground among young voters, with an NBC News poll in November finding Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points among voters under 35.
The poll was conducted Feb. 3-14 among 1,073 people between 18 and 34 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Young Voter Poll
That is a poll aimed specifically at young voters countering one of the issues Vox noted.
The poll seems about right to me. Perhaps it even understates youth support for Biden.
What About Enthusiasm?
Given young voters enthusiastically turned out for Biden by a whopping 20 percentage points in 2020, a six or even ten point lead for Biden would be a disaster to Biden’s chances.
When push comes to shove though, should one really expect climate change advocates, abortion rights groups, and Palestinian activists to switch to Trump?
Some will but I think a key message rings more likely. The Axios survey noted “30 percent said they were unlikely or not planning on voting.“
Harvard Poll on Voting Plans
This poll is from December so it’s a little stale: Less than Half of Young Americans Plan to Vote in 2024.
After record youth turnout in the 2020 elections, fewer Americans ages 18 to 29 plan to vote in 2024 in part due to widespread dissatisfaction with both President Joe Biden and his likely challenger former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll of young people by Harvard’s Institute of Politics.
Compared to the same period in the 2020 election cycle, young Americans “definitely” planning to vote in the next presidential election dropped eight percentage points – from 57% to 49%. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated 54.1% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in 2020, which had the highest youth turnout overall of any election in the 21st century.
Another 17% said they will “probably vote” and another 14% said there’s a 50-50 chance.
Youth Turnout Math
Given that a record 54% of youth voters turned out 2020, I suggest the best youth vote turnout would be at least six to eight percentage points lower. I use 7 percentage points lower in my calculations below.
This is a “what if” setup but based on historic patterns noted below.
Instead of a 20 point margin for Biden, let’s give him a 10-point margin despite the highest poll to date being 6 points with many polls showing Biden trailing. Here, a 10 point margin for Biden could be too high. Again this is a “what if” setup.
There are about 53.5 million voters aged 18-29 of which 28.9 million voted. If Biden carried this demographic by 20 percentage points then Biden got 60 percent of the votes and Trump 40 percent.
That would make the 2020 votes 17.34 million for Biden and 11.56 million for Trump.
Let’s redo the math at a turnout rate of 47 percent, split 55 percent to 45.
47 percent of 53.5 million is 25.145 million. Biden would get 13.83 million votes and Trump 11.32 million.
The net hit for this age group to Biden would be 17.34 million (2020) minus 13.83 million (2024 expected) = 3.51 million votes less from this age group in 2024.
This demographic is tiny, only about 16 percent of voters and Biden has big issues.
Election Voter Turnout Rate by Age in the United States
Based on the above chart, a 47 percent youth turnout for Biden could easily be way too optimistic.
30-44 year olds are not exactly enthusiastic either.
Independents are not enthusiastic about either Trump or Biden but older voters and those who voted for Trump in 2020 are now very enthusiastic about Trump.
Eight Months is a Long Time
These polls are a snapshot with usual (or perhaps very unusual) margins of error. And the election is a long way off.
We do not know how a Trump conviction would change things, and that may be far more likely that people think.
We also do not know if Biden can even last eight months.
Trump and Biden are Each Their Own Worst Enemies
On March 1, I noted Trump Would Rather Win Adoration From the Base Than Win the Election
Both Trump and Biden need to win moderates, independents, and/or do much better with suburban housewives.
Both would rather appeal to their own bases. One of them will succeed at alienating more voters.
Ironically, MAGA are now believers in polls for the first time in history. Even if the polls are finally right, it’s just March. The election is eight months away.
I don’t know if Biden can last that long. And if not, Trump will not be running against a senile old man. So, he cannot afford to alienate Haley voters and independents. He need them to win.
Biggest Lie in Campaign History
Biden promised to be a healer and a moderate. It was the biggest lie in campaign history.
On the other side of the ledger, it’s counterproductive for Trump to continue with name calling.
Labeling Nikki Haley “bird brain” and California Governor Gavin Newsom “New Scum” cannot possibly win a single vote!
If you disagree, please explain the rationale.
Trump could easily win this in a blowout if he would just stop personal attacks.
Understanding the Youth Vote Economically
On average, the economy looks OK. But averages are misleading. Several large groups of people are struggling. They all have one thing in common.
Who’s Unhappy?
Those looking to buy a home but cannot afford the record high prices, are not faring well in this economy.
The last great time to buy a home was in 2012. Over the next eight years, home prices moved further and further away from wages.
When the Covid pandemic hit in 2020, we had record QE, record fiscal stimulus, mortgage rates hit record lows, and inflation hit the highest levels in 40 years.
In response, home prices soared out of sight. Worse yet, the price of rent rose at least 0.4 percent for 29 straight months.
30-year mortgage Rates
When the Fed slashed interest rates to zero, mortgage rates fell below 3.0% for an extended period allowing everyone to refinance at 3.0 percent or below. Most did.
Winners and Losers
- The homeowners are generally doing OK. The home ownership rate is 65.7 percent.
- The 34.3 percent who rent are generally not doing OK.
Whereas home owners have a fixed payment, likely refinanced lower than their initial mortgage, renters faces huge increases, not every month, but once a year, big bang.
For discussion please see Another Hotter Than Expected CPI Led by Shelter, Up Another 0.6 Percent
The stress is easy to spot by demographics.
Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar
Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011 at best.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.
Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39
Generational Homeownership Rates
The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report
Those struggling with rent are more likely to Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.
The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.
Also note Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs in 2023 to Help Migrants
There are plenty of reasons for voters under the age of 44 to be upset, blacks to be upset, and Hispanics to be upset.
Biden’s Disapproval Rating Soars to 59 Percent
For discussion of the lead image, please see Biden’s Disapproval Rating Soars to 59 Percent, Trump’s Lead Biggest Yet
Polls show they are upset. Biden is too senile to understand why. And mainstream media dismisses the polls as inaccurate.
But my economic charts above fully explain the polls. So, don’t expect record turnout in 2024. That alone makes it an very uphill climb for Biden.
If you are still voting it means that you haven’t been paying attention.
I voted for him the first time but kushner and his zionist gang will into power.
Whose going to vote for trump. Women and minorities won’t vote for a panderer that pretends to be a racist for white southern vote.
He’s losing the genocide vote too. Old buffoon is senile but knows he’s a racist asshole.
Israel is a criminal state
Your bias reflects poorly on you and your mission. Equal disdain would serve you better. Constructive vision for a way out of the mess of two unqualified (mentally diminished) presidential candidates would be even better.
Note 1, Trump is peaking too early again.
Note 2, for some reason the home pace classifies this article as economics instead of politics.
Between 10 pm and 4 am on election night his #s in MI, WI, GA and AZ will go negative.
Polls show Caucasians, Asians, Muslims, and Jews moving to the Republican camp.
Democrats care so much about black people that they awarded zero delegates to black candidates in the 2020 primary. None for Kamala. None for Corey. All 3,979 rank and file, virtue signaling delegates pledged their support for candidates who are not black.
It took George Floyd for democrats to pretend that the 2020 election was different. But it’s not different. It’s the same old pandering promises that do not see the light of day. Black people see right through this. They are fed up with the false promises they receive every four years and they are finally going to do something about it.
They should vote for Trump because they know that democrats will do nothing for them. What do they have to lose?
Their country to an orange dictator.
What is really galling is that the black Democrat mayor of Chicago wants to shut down success academies, which are helping black children in the city, succeed educationally. The teachers union is more important to him.
Biden flipped from white supremacy to black supremacy. Biden is flipping from Israeli
supremacy to a Palestinians supremacy.
We know 14 different Hispanic Couples, mainly from South of the Border and they arrived here and got their Credentials the old fashioned way: THEY EARNED their American Citizenships.
THEY think that illegal aliens are more scum-like than most people would ever imagine. THEY have worked hard for 35 plus years, raised families here in the USA and they did it legally.
THEY disagree with BidenCo policies when it comes to border security. THEY are more conservative than I am – – one who will never Vote for TrumpCo or BidenCo.
One such family has a Mom who is the SENIOR in their family who arrived here in the 1950’s and SHE married my Father-in-Law and we spend a ton of time with she and her extended family and they ALL nodded during Christmas when I asked: “SO, you are TRUMP supporters?”
Without exception, Moms, Dads and Kids all nodded. That blew me away.
That was on target! Here is an interesting fact. I surveyed 14k social media folks and only counted replies to my poke! Real people….shocked 70+% Trump 28% Biden! Mix age groups demographics unknown.
SF & NYC are liberal ghettos. The periphery is poorer, more conservative and more
religious. Nancy the Ripper cheered Biden, but the periphery didn’t. Many black and Latinos support Trump. The periphery is growing, becoming stronger. The liberal elite and the media refuse to accept reality. Trump appeals to the lower 25 percentile of income, to the deflating brown parameter. Their number is huge. They are the majority.
Tucker’s reaction to Biden’s State of the Delusion speech.
https://rumble.com/v4hxi9z-tucker-carlsons-powerful-response-to-dementia-patient-joe-bidens-state-of-t.html
Alex, thanks.
Col Micky G infected Tucker. His numbers are inflated. His predictions failed.
Under the banner of Trump adviser the angry col misleads ignorant people & journalists
Raise corporate taxes,raise minimum wages,cut our oil supply,have wars erupted all over the world, military soldiers killed,weak federal government ( HUD)do nothing to help American citizens ,American cities failing, lack of Federal government leadership;example, Atlantic City Public Housing, HUD , The Federal government lack of accountability and failure ;do nothing; to help the poor people , let the leaders in HUD , sleep in these houses! The Federal government Swamp Do-nothings ; The Fed ,should lower interest rates now! His policies and in his state of the union speech, will increase inflation, and make life harder for the majority of Americans, that he says he wants to help, but will do the opposite. The border issue, just hurts the economy and the middle class!Also is making lfe harder in inner cities, He’s using women’s rights as a political tool, states rights, not federal laws, Bottom line; America needs a Change of leadership! Now!
The elections are fixed. Biden will come back to power. All your analysis are for naught.
Elections are NOT fixed…The Republicans have LOST the Popular Vote for DECADES. They are mostly a bunch of Old Restrictive Religious Farts and more and More Republicans keep dying off or dropping out every year.
The Independents and Moderates are pissed off because Drump is an idiot who keeps making crap up every time he shoots off his mouth. WOMEN are going to CRUSH the idiot because the Reps keep trying to turn the South into “The Handmaidens Tale.” Women are Sick and Tired over Mitch McConnell trying to tell them that they can’t have control over their bodies and that Alabama thinks it can regulate their lives and babies and fertility treatments. That ALONE is going to sink Drump. He’s too angry to just STFU and not say stoopid crap. If anyone isn’t showing up to vote it’s the people who voted for Drump in 2020 and NEVER will because of January 6th and all the losing he’s done in Court.
The Republicans can’t win the Popular Vote and Drump will never win it. Too many people have ZERO respect for him.
The reps anti abortion stance is a big stupidity indeed !, As a European I don t quite get it; a woman ‘s body and decisions related to it, abortion in particular, should be nobody’s business !
Uncle Joe communist philosophy was anti family. The women’s lib movement destroyed our family: “It’s my body, I will do what I want” . Any connection ?
I live in Europe part time and the idiocy of your Brussels leadership KNOWN by my European friends and they are saying the same thing: IT IS NOT BRUSSELS’ business whether I eat meat, or use Nuclear Power. We have German friends who recently left Hamburg for good due to EU policies.
at least it won t be for being denied abortion…..meat is not forbidden and neither is nuclear power ….what SHOULD BE forbidden though is a US imposed war against Russia ….the EU circus is merely a pathetic US vasal….for the time bein anyway
The excess popular vote gushes from a broken sewer in Atlanta and pizza boxes in Detroit.
DavidC, the sanitized world-view that you are spouting is like the drip-drip of a stinky sewer pipe. It creeps up on us and then it STINKS THE TO HIGH HEAVENS and your mouth needs to be rinsed out.
STFU and get back on your meds. You’re insane
Thank you because that enters my mind, as it did yours. Why the hand-wringing over polls when the RUBBER HITS THE ROAD with the Vote tallying functions which were questioned in the last cycle. As a Result, polls mean NOTHING. BUT, let’s hold out a bit longer and see what happens.
This illegal alien plan is going to backfire in full force. The youth struggling to find housing, decent employment are seeing these people being housed for free, free food, loaded debit cards, committing heinous crimes and are going to use the only weapon they have. Same for many blacks. I get why the uni-party did it but there is going to be a steep price to pay this round.
Don’t be surprised after Trump wins he gives us the most beautiful immigration compromise deal ever where they’re all allowed to stay in exchange for something we already had or were going to get anyway. Same with guns. Why anyone thinks Trump’s second term would be any different than his first is beyond me.
Younger voters of any color who want a future in America don’t want any more of Biden.
Has Nate Silver figured out who will count the votes?
Lots of good math on the youth vote. What about the boomer vote? If 5000 boomers die each year and it’s been 4 years since last election and there are 365 days per year then 5000 x 365 x 4 = 7,300,000 voting boomers gone.
Then there are more in nursing homes that won’t ever make it to the voting booth.
So it looks like it all offsets doesn’t it?
Four years ago 2020 there were reports of Democrat campaign workers visiting nursing homes to “harvest” ballots there. Um… not unethical… And reports that the campaign workers helped the seniors to fill out their ballots, , ; that is starting to look a bit queer.
Go figure…
no matter your race or color or station in life,
eventually you grow tired of the bullshit.
And the senility…
And the never ending LIES from Orange Mussolini Wannabe. Time for him to go try and get a non-reality TV show.
cabreado? ! Yo tambien, ma que lostia !
“They want you to be forced to raise your rapist’s baby nationwide, or go to jail” Advertise that loud and clear and the womens’ votes will come running.
You mean the rapists that Democrats are doing everything in their power to release from jail and make sure they are prosecuted?
Give us the name of one rapist and one democrat doing this, or did you just dream it all up?
Here is the name: Joe Biden.. Does Tara Reid ring a bell? And all the kid sniffing and child molesting by Joe on the camera.
If you hate Biden, just say so. But reaching for generalities without any facts to back them up doesnt make a case.
I understand that it is just that it is hard for you to digest the truth. Facts everywhere we just have to pull our heads out of sand and be aware of the brainwashing by MSM and liberal funded/run politifact, factcheck and other fake fact checking orgs.
No the Rapist who now owes $83 MILLION that to his Puxxx grabbing ways. Spending his campaign money on Legal Bills just to LOSE.
Biden is the real rapist and racist. Can you see the tiered justice?
The number of women who’ve carried rapists babies is probably around the same number of people who have been struck by lightning. It’s basically infinitesimally small.
Any woman who actually found herself in this situation could go to another state and get the abortion. Even if they are too poor to make the trip, just one GoFund me will see plenty of people donate to make it happen.
Incidentally, Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly Catholic. Need I remind you how Catholics feel about abortion and birth control.
And if the Repubs get their wish and make abortion illegal in all 50 states? They have 50% already. And many of their “outs” like life of the mother are weak if not disappeared. They want a 100% crackdown on all abortions for any reason.
Wow you’re clueless. Reactionary Religious Zealots trying to make it illegal to go to another state. Catch up foolish person, people know what’s going on in Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and other states. Women are going to CRUSH the Orange Mussolini because of the Foolishness of the Republicans in the South trying to force women to have babies no matter what. Angry Orange Mussolini Wannabe is going to get smashed because the Republicans can’t stop doing stoopid stuff.
What does Trump have to do with abortion. It’s a state level issue.
Democrats could already have introduced legislation at the federal level immediately after the supreme court decision. Guess what, they didn’t. You know why? Because they are happy about the decision. It means they never have to do anything but simply bring it up every 4 years at election time to rally the base.
“If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black”
-FJB
Who’s watching The Mumbler tonight?
Michael Buffer would announce him with …… Let’s Get Ready to Mumbuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuule
😎