ADP reports a modest 42,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be delayed or cancelled.
ADP October Private Job Change
- 1-19 Employees: -15,000
- 20-49 Employees: +5,000
- 25-240 Employees: -25,000
- 250-499 Employees: +3,000
- 500+ Employees: +74,000
Please consider the ADP® National Employment Report for October
Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.
ADP Change in Employment Year-Over-Year
Year-Over-Year Change in Employment
- Small: -68,000
- Medium: +327,000
- Large: +836,000
This is a huge problem because small businesses are the key driver for job growth.
Current Employment by Business Size
ADP Current Employment Breakdown
- Small: 58.5 Million (and sinking)
- Medium: 36.9 Million
- Large: 39.1 Million
Year-over-year small business employment is negative for the third consecutive month. The small business employment trend is increasingly lower for five consecutive months.
Surprised by the Small Business Drop?
If so, you shouldn’t be. Tariffs are particularly hard on small businesses who have fewer means of tariff avoidance.
This shows up in the polls as well. And it explains the dismal results on Tuesday’s elections.
For discussion, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
Let’s discuss some election benchmarks, posted in advance.
Some dismiss the results as mid-term expected normality in blue states. Sorry, even Georgia came into play. And the margins were amazing. Voters are upset.
Tariffs are not working. The labor market is not good. And inflation is a huge problem.
All of that shows up in the polls and in Tuesday’s election.
Wait Till Next Year
Meanwhile, please note Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Observation of the Day
Next year won’t happen if Republicans lose the House in the midterms based on Trump’s results on inflation, tariffs, and jobs today.
The Midterms will not be decided on whether one preferred Trump over Harris, they will be decided on jobs, inflation, housing, and gerrymandering.
All but gerrymandering look poor for Republicans.
a fresh supply of avail labor avail. to the private sector.job market ……. windfall gift for that categoryfrom federal job cuts.
thats progress
Current Average Gas Prices by State Nov 4, 2025
California $4.651
Washington $4.285
South Carolina $2.684
That’s because CA and WA are run by corrupt incompetent muppets.
AKA Democrats
I’m still getting north of 15% unemployment U6+10% no longer in labor force divided by total labor force (in millions) 25.3/163.6 = 15.5%. FWIW the total labor force #’s have contracted by a million since Y2K
Old people leave the workforce. Low birth rates mean fewer people available to employ. Now we also have a segment that wants women to stay in the home and not enter the workforce.
I contend that this # is much higher “As of August 2025, approximately 6.35 million people in the United States were not in the labor force but wanted a job, according to the most recent data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)” When combined with U6 these numbers reflect the reality of the employment situation. In conjunction I believe U4 is woefully understated as well. “The U-4 measure of labor underutilization, as defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), includes the total number of unemployed individuals plus discouraged workers, expressed as a percentage of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers” – When looking around Mainstreet, U.S.A I believe 15% is probably a low ball #
Modest 42k right before the holiday season? Right before peak holiday travel season?
Is this the golden age everyone voted for and wanted? No wonder repubs got clobbered on elections.
peak holiday hiring season doesn’t start till mid november. At least get your facts straight.
General Motors Lays Off Workers at Ohio Site Trump Pledged To Save
https://www.newsweek.com/general-motors-lays-off-workers-ohio-trump-save-lordstown-michigan-10964364?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1761829795
fugly
the magic pony wants OPM
Nvidia and Open AI getting nervous–want federal guarantees and backstops for investments
really, it’s TBTF
“we can’t lose to China”
However, it was in discussing the financing of these deals and investments that Friar suggested OpenAI would benefit from a government guarantee of its loans. “This is where we’re looking for an ecosystem of banks, private equity, maybe even governmental… the way governments can come to bear,” Friar said.
When asked for clarification, she continued; “First of all, the backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen, that can really drop the cost of the financing but also increase the loan to value, so the amount of debt you can take on top of an equity portion for…” Krouse then pressed her, asking if that meant a “federal backstop for chip investment?”
“Exactly,” Friar said. “I think we’re seeing that.” She went on to praise the US government as understanding how AI is a “strategic asset,” and that it was important for competition with China.
Another way to privatize the gains and socialize the losses. Looks like we’re getting close to this bubble popping if hands are out.
MegaCorps wants its risk taken off its back.
Millions of people are now going hungry.
I wonder what we should spend our tax dollars on.
I do not see the labor market as strong, but maybe there is a very slight positive glimmer of hope here. With the government shutdown, many private contractors have likely been furloughed subtracting from the total, so any positive number this month is possibly might be better than the headline
I agree that the ADP employment data demonstrate that Trump‘s tariff (and immigration) policies are an economic disaster for small- and medium-sized companies, and that Republicans are now getting the feedback via miserable election results. Just look at the monthly pattern of employment during 2025! You don’t need fancy econometrics to get the message. Ironically, the Supreme Court will do Trump a big favor if it finds his tariffs are illegal.
Repubs got screamed at during townhalls the past few months, if they were still clueless that’s their fault.
The tariffs will continue, if not under one law they will use another law.
The US attorneys were trying to say the tariffs were user fees.
Tariffs are taxes, and only Congress can levy taxes.
However, the President has some power to do so under specific conditions. The laws themselves are a squiggly mess.