Let’s discuss the latest e-commerce sales numbers.
Please consider the E-Commerce Retail Sales Report for the second quarter of 2025.
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $304.2 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.9%) from the first quarter of 2025.
Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2025 were estimated at $1,865.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.4%) from the first quarter of 2025.
The second quarter 2025 e-commerce estimate increased 5.3 percent (±1.2%) from the second quarter of 2024 while total retail sales increased 3.9 percent (±0.4%) in the same period. Ecommerce sales in the second quarter of 2025 accounted for 16.3 percent of total sales.
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.”
It’s “real” inflation-adjusted sales that matter to GDP. I used the CPI Index 1982-1984 = 100 to calculate real sales.
It’s standard economic procedure to calculate real sales this way.
E-Commerce Retail Sales Quarterly Percent Change From Prior Quarter
I excluded the Covid pandemic years in my averages because the percentage changes were wild.
Making analysis difficult is the constant upward pressure on e-commerce sales as the percent keeps going up over time.
E-Commerce Retail Sales Quarterly Percent of Retail Sales
Those percentages are from the commerce department. I prefer to look at the percentage of e-commerce sales that can reasonably be purchased online.
Online sales exclude gasoline and eating out. I also exclude groceries, and cars. Although one can buy groceries and cars online few do so although the percentages are rising.
Here’s my monthly estimate of the percent of purchases made online using the above guidelines.
Because of the scale difference, the lead chart makes real sales look flatter than they are. Here’s real sales in isolation.
E-Commerce Retail Real Sales
It’s arguably a bit early to declare a “stall” but that is how it looks at the moment.
Finally, the commerce department revised Q1 2025 sales lower, down just over 1 percent. The first half of 2025 is flat.
I expect more negative revisions will come.
Other Economic Data
Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent
On July 23, I reported Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7 Percent, Median Price New Record High
Hooray, higher prices? That’s the message from the NAR.
That alleged Median Price Record did not happen. The NAR does a terrible job at seasonal adjustments (if it tries at all).
Click on above link for discussion. And expect rapid decline now in NAR median prices.
August 14, 2025: Producer Prices for July Unexpectedly Rise the Most Since March 2022
Producer prices were high across the board in July.
August 19, 2025: Housing Permits Sink to the Lowest Level Since June 2020
Homebuilders can’t start what isn’t permitted.
I’m betting on a tulip market crash after Jackson Hole tells them what everyone who does actual work for a living has known for the last six months.
Having to cut interest rates is never a positive sign. A soft landing has never been achieved.
E commerce to preempt tariffs supports China. Banks borrows O/N to lend at 20%/30% -> pay Amazon or Walmart -> pay Chinese traders/factories -> pay Chinese workers. C/C debt isn’t a self liquidation debt. It compound fast. Total C/C debt can keep rising even with LESS buying.
Savings products tend to produce a sustainable income stream (a payback), while money products are largely confined to a transfer of title to goods, properties or claims thereto. As Martin Wolf says DFI credit is chiefly used: “to buy existing assets, not new ones”.
– The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.”
> The key phrase above is ACTUALLY “Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2025 were estimated at $1,865.4 billion.
>> Again with the damn estimations. Why not Factual Data? Wait, if necessary, a day or two and present Real and Accurate Data, and stop with the Guesses, Estimates and wishy-washy untrue, and unverified Estimates Please!
>>> To Estimate is to be “Tentative” and “Approximate” and/or Not Real, but more of a “Rough Guess” at best. Why do we continue to put any value on estimates? By definition they are wrong, as they are only a Guess, and change via personality traits, and most importantly Political Bias, Galore!!!
E commerce was rising to preempt tariffs. The winners are the banks. They are buying O/N and charging 20%/30% from day one (don’t tell Wolf). C/C debt is $1.2T. Other debts: $0.5T. Since 2020 real E commerce stalled. It wiggle around the zero line. Between 2010 and 2019 it was rising around 3%/Qt. 2020 is a spike to ignore.
Falling interest rates signify some weakness and the Fed is walking on eggshells.
Large corporations are now discussing the possibility of “export taxes” in their contingency planning. Profit margins are getting squeezed.
I am keeping inventories at lower levels given the regulatory uncertainty. Several interns have inquired about permanent jobs at attractively low salaries. Labor market may be softer in agriculture than I thought.
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Making business plans around possible trumpletantrums is a fool’s errand. Who will hurt his feelings? How will he retaliate? Will he get impeached for being a pedo, and sending a billion dollars to a pedo supplier, and all his nonsense gets reversed?
Spin the wheel and make yer bets!
Already selection is reduced at local stores in South Bay-Orange County, CA, and prices are 20-40% higher for shoes, which I was shopping for. Not a good omen.
Anecdotally, thrift shops have fewer offerings of desirable/quality items. The good stuff has been picked over.
Seems the trend in thrift stores over the last 10 plus years. Is to go through and pick the good stuff sell on line or sell in the vintage stores.
But heard on the radio today that pawn shop sales are up 4 percent i think it was.
Mish the problem with these type of “real” adjustments is they apply the overall CPI rather than CPI by category of good/service. You would think in 2025 with all the computing power available that it would be easy to do a proper real adjustment.
At this point the consumer is still in the game. Summer vacations have gone on and crowds at beaches have been normal. The only sector that is really down is international tourism since so many people are avoiding the US,
The port of LA is reporting large volumes of cargo, so business are importing and paying the tariffs in anticipation of a resilient consumer. I am thinking that demand was pulled forward by the threat of tariffs, and inventories fell because importers could not figure out what to do.
We might not hit that air pocket until fall…
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It’s almost as if someone is jerking our economy around at whim.
In order to increase the purchasing power of increased funding for war, nato governments must “crowd out” serfs’ spending. Ergo taxes like tariffs and the Europoodles quick agreement to that and weapons deals.
Speaking of Europoodles/
Europe To Spend $100BN It Doesn’t Have, To Buy Weapons America Doesn’t Have, To Arm Soldiers Ukraine Now Lacks…
How long will it take those European ‘leaders’ to get it?
https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/1957759862235889934
I saw that when it came out lol.
Yeah, Europe is going to defend Ukraine, LOL
Liberals have turned the world upside down and they act like they haven’t.
We have a republican president that is anti war or at least trying to stop a war. Yeah I admit that might be a first and we now have liberals from all over the globe pro war……
Move along, nothing to see here.
An “anti-war” POTUS that in just his 2nd term alone brags about arming Kyiv, brags about threatening to bomb Moscow and Beijing, bombed Iran, calls Bibi a war hero, and threatens Venezuela, Canada, Denmark, Panama, Mexico, and … What am I missing here?
David, i hope you’re a kid, because then that means there’s hope for you to learn. But, since my experience is no one listens to me, i presume any discussion between us will waste your time and mine. So, good luck to you in your lifelong pursuit of learning.
I admit Trump says some dumb shit. War threats are one thing
But what is the reality over the last say 25 years? Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump. I think Trump Admin has done more to get us out of war, as a whole, I realize we always back Israel. And sorry, Obama doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his administration instigating Russia into the Ukraine War as we through all those administrations kept expanding NATO to Russia doorstep.
Sure Biden got us out of Afghanistan, but how he did it was not well done. Closing Bagram air force base, whomever idea that was ought to be charged with manslaughter at a minimum with the amount of deaths that caused.
And come on, when have the democrats championed a war? And I say that mostly to their credit. Do you deny that its the EU and U.S. liberals that want to continue this war, and Trump wants to end it?
I follow people like this. I’m more cynical than them though. I expect the Euro rulers to do a combo of (a) print/devalue beyond whatever “fiscal brakes” exist (legally or not) and (b) shift purchasing power away from public healthcare, trains, road repairs, etc.
I know people already being affected by the cutbacks in services. People with children with real needs. It’s sad.
Is it possible that more folks have discovered that not having money means they shouldn’t spend?
Except this changes the understanding of REAL money spent.
Within the United States, the black market for illegal drugs is estimated to be between $200 and $750 billion annually. This figure reflects the sheer scale of the illicit drug trade within the country
Credit = money, Lisa. When Credit tightens, that will ignite a downward trajectory that is much more steep. In the meantime, People are borrowing to buy Groceries.
Sorry.
In the US money is M2 (should be M1 but they took that away from us).
Credit is only temporary credit money.
Give me an example of credit money that doesn’t have to be paid back, usually with interest.
Please don’t mention valuable and fungible metals.
probably not, at least with the 35 & under crowd.
Isn’t everyone entitled to an exotic vacation? An SUV? eating out 6 times a week?
Can you comment on old school “brick and mortar” sales? (if you did and I missed it sorry)
(My guess is both are dropping)
From what I see, demand has been drawn forward by the threat of tariffs. This has sustained retail sales in my opinion. Going forward, we will see the costs hitting the consumer and learn if they are cutting back. September/October.November is where we should be aware of possible consumer weakness. IMO
Brick and Mortar is dead with the only real exceptions being gas stations and grocery stores.