DPI rose 0.3 percent but so did the PCE price index.
Real means after inflation. Current dollar personal income of 0.3 minus the 0.3 price increase = 0.0 percent real income gains.
Personal Income Gains
The BEA has these comment on the nominal rise in Personal Income.
The increase in personal income in June primarily reflected increases in government social benefits to persons and in compensation.
- The increase in government social benefits to persons was led by Social Security payments, based on data from the Social Security Administration and the Monthly Treasury Statement.
- The increase in compensation reflected increases of $10.9 billion in government wages and salaries, $10.8 billion in supplements (mainly employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds), and $6.3 billion in private wages and salaries, based on data from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wages and salaries in goods producing industries increased $4.5 billion. Wages and salaries in services-producing industries increased $1.9 billion.
Real Personal Income With and Without Government Transfers
The NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, watches real personal income excluding government transfer payments.
In June, real PI excluding transfers fell 0.18 percent. In July, real PI excluding transfers fell 0.16 percent.
Real Personal Current Transfer Receipts
I believe we know where this problem is headed.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget reports OBBBA Would Accelerate Social Security & Medicare Insolvency
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees estimated in their 2025 annual reports on the programs that the retirement and hospital trust funds will become insolvent in 2033 – only eight years from today. We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would accelerate Social Security and Medicare insolvency by a year, to 2032.
Musk says “Social Security is the Biggest Ponzi Scheme of all Time.”
On March 21, I discussed Musk says “Social Security is the Biggest Ponzi Scheme of all Time.” Agree?
In contrast, PolitiFact says SS is not a Ponzi scheme. Who is correct?
The Peak 65 Moment and Why Social Security Is Going Bust
On July 7, I commented The Peak 65 Moment and Why Social Security Is Going Bust
About 11,000 people turn 65 every day. This will last for 3 years.
There are nearly 40 million more people aged 65 and older than in 2010.
However, there are only 9 million more people paying into Social Security.
By 2035, the Social Security Administration estimates there will be 77 million people age 65 and older.
The CFRB thinks Social Security will be insolvent in 2032. I think that is optimistic.
Factor in recession and a decrease in FICA payments.
Correction
My headline inadvertently said “July”, corrected to June
There is s single element of Ponzi in SS. That is that effectively SS is only invested in government bonds. If invested in the stock market it there would be handsome rewards. But successive corrupt governments stole the SS deposits to cover their overspending.
Mish do you think there is any chance the tariff revenue would be used to help offset the shortfall in social security?
Currently Trumps tariffs are collecting more per month than the shortfall in social security.
Shirley you jest.
I’m not and don’t call me Shirley 🙂
The only answer to the Soc Security Issue is to decisively eliminate old people. The best way to do it will be easy: MANDATED VACCINES, AGAIN!
Or release another Covid 19 type virus that decimates older people.
Read Frank Herberts The White plague. Back then only a few people were capable of doing the science in their garage.
Now Biotech guys are all over. California had an Illegal, wouldn’t they all be, Biotech lab with some lovely virii about a year ago.
I read in back in high school when it first came out (I was reading the Dune series then too). An excellent book that I always thought would make a great sci-fi movie especially in today’s world.
There would be more elderly people if vaccines were mandated.
That is what they want us to believe.
Simply put, SS is not a Ponzi scheme. Enron Moosh is daft. It won’t go broke. Not even close.
But AI and robots are supposed to bring enormous productivity gains.
And robots are supposed to be able to do the jobs of a large fraction of the workforce.
So the ratio of the human workforce plus the robot- and AI-workforce should be able to actually reduce the effective ratio of retirees to workers, n’est pas?
Why the panic?
UBI baby. Solves a lot of street level problems.
can you help??
Donate to the Treasury to help pay down the national debt
https://www.pay.gov/public/form/start/23779454
Many years ago Paul Harvey’s The Rest of the story had a tale of a very rich man who wanted to pay off the US debt. True story.
The rich guy puts his money into high interest accounts estimating how many years it would take to pay off the debt.
He knew he was going to be dead before that happened. So he made some religious organization overseer of his plan.
He dies, church group challenges his will stating their organization can do better works than his plan.
Church wins and now you know why you are a debt slave.
If anyone knows more please fill in the blanks.
Thanks.
folks that never think for themselves in the rich world don’t starve like they did in past. now they are just tax cows distracted by the century of self masturbation on sports and entertainment and being good little workers.
They forget there is always a bigger hammer.
Carrington event, supervolcano, disease, anything unexpected and they fall apart.
Eat the rich the non plastic parts tend to be organic and they do pay young people to feed them blood.
Preppers say to build a community, except when that community wants your extra crops or to marry your 14 year old daughter to the community leader.
In the end other people are the problem.
Your stack of gold barely pays for this half can of cat food, but I see you got some women folk and I know people who would pay for a go.
Hungry enough?
i’d suggest going to desperate places to see how stuff really works. cuba. russia in 90s. haiti. it will do one good to put in perspective. madd max movies are rubbish.
It is the utter failure of Social control mechanisms that bother me.
No fear of jail, no shame of conduct, no guilt.
It runs across all classes and most races.
What I hate most is justifying crime that a few people commit. 8.5 billion people and the majority never break the law.
After that it is creating a false social fear. Now it is BROWN people, before that MUSLIMS, before that RAPPERS, before that MOTORCYCLE GANGS the original 1% percenters.
I think Steinbeck had an interesting observation in East of Eden.
Background: Mr. Fenchel, a German by birth, had been a respected tailor in Salinas for two decades, and his accent had never posed an issue before the war.
Impact of World War I: As anti-German sentiment soared, Mr. Fenchel was ostracized by the community.
Consequences: His attempts to demonstrate loyalty, such as buying war bonds and enlisting in the Home Guard (which was refused), were fruitless. His business failed, and he became the target of harassment, including taunts and the burning of his home. This hostile environment ultimately forced him to leave town.
So, national war and Kumbaya are not the same thing? So, nations are not universal insurance policies for absolutely every last person? So, tribal/group prejudice has not been omnipresent since pre-human times?
I’m not justifying the shallow pot-boiling between groups I am seeing now. I am horrified by it, and wonder how far it will go.
I agree with you.
Family first. Then tribe. Then city. Then state. Then nation.
Close enough.
Modern people forget Kinship. I was just reading Neal Asher describing kinship in Crete where everyone is related to everyone else. Say something about the butcher and his cousin the baker will bring it up to you when you see him.
We don’t get the same understanding as the rest of the world because the US is a bastard nation.
Each ethnic group still retains those kinship rules.
Nah, only among the racists.
wonderful comments and great book and dialogue. i was tenant to an old admiral in charleston SC whose german family bank, downtown, was run out of business due to anti german fervor.
My family (grandfather) anglicized our last name because of the anti-German sentiments floating around in the WW I era. If you wanted to survive in business that’s what people did back then.
Chip in for the new ballroom
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/31/politics/white-house-ballroom-construction
It’s time for runaway triumphalist inhumane toxic egos to spiral into their own grandiose public self-worship rites.
July is over. 1M QQQ bar is the smallest since Oct last year on slightly higher vol.
Can QQQ test July hi/Aug lo trading range, to Apr fractal zone. Will QQQ close < July 25 high, tomorrow.
In 2035 US population will be around 350 million. By 2035 there will be 77 million retired people. Gen X will turn 70. 76 million children under age18 and about 200 million in between. 82% of them will work, They will not buy boomers and gen X houses even with lower prices. US treasuries might pay negative rates. US gov debt might be down 30%/40% in real terms. Green pasture for the prime age, not for the boomers.
I, boomer, got my dividends. It will be someone else’s turn.
I’m back baby! And my first task seems to be to award a Mishelin award for this post because it gets to the nitty gritty of the coming Boomercalypse™.
Can you hear it now in 2025 from 2030? It’s the screams of indignant boomers transcending space & time reflecting off the moons of Jupiter telling us that they can’t make ends meet because of inflation.
The smart ones took head of “It’s tariff turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!” and planned accordingly and moved to greener pastures, the rest are screaming and squirming.
Unlike the homeless and underemployed of today.
Ain’t That a Bitch Lyrics
[Intro]
Ooh, ooh, ooh, Lord have mercy
I can’t get ahead no way I try
Everything is outta pocket
Somebody do something
The brother’s situation is abstract
Listen, mmm
Listen
[Verse 1]
I’m working forty hours
Six long days
And I’m highly embarrassed
Every time I get my pay
And they working everybody
Lord, they working poor folks to death
And when you pay your rent and your car note
You ain’t got a damn thing left
[Chorus]
Ain’t that a bitch, ha, yes, it is
Somebody doing something slick, yeah, they are
It’s got me wondering which is which
Might as well go out of town and dig a ditch
Ain’t that a bitch, ha, yes, it is
Now ain’t that a bitch
You might also like
[Verse 2]
Let me tell you about my qualifications
I program computers
I know accounting and psychology
I took a course in business
And I can speak a little Japanese, funk san
Gotta work two years
To get one week off with pay
And when I’m on my job
I better watch every word I say
[Chorus]
Ain’t that a bitch, ha ha, boy
Somebody doing something slick, downtown
It’s got me wondering which is which
Might as well go out of town and dig a ditch
Ain’t that a bitch, it’s way, way too cold
Now ain’t that a bitch
[Bridge]
Make me wanna holler, ah, Lord, Lord
Lord have mercy this evening
Won’t somebody please help me to see land, Lord
I want to play the guitar, come here guitar
[Guitar solo]
Oh, somebody doing something slick
Now listen to this
[Verse 3]
Stopped at the supermarket
To get myself something to eat
And when I look at the prices
They knock me off of my feet
I was in the bologna section
And I had to take myself a close look
Now [Abdul-Jabbar] couldn’t have made these prices
With a sky hook
[Chorus]
Ain’t that a bitch, ha ha, yes, it is
Somebody doing something slick, yeah, they are
It’s got me wondering which is which
Might as well go out of town and dig a ditch
Ain’t that a bitch
Hmm, now ain’t that a bitch
[Outro]
(Ain’t that a)
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick (Ain’t that a)
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick
Sure is something slick going on
Somebody sure is slick (Ain’t that a)
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick
Sure is something slick going on (Ain’t that a)
Somebody sure is slick (It’s a bitch)
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick (Ain’t that a)
Sure is something slick going on
Sure is something slick (Ain’t that a)
Can’t edit but that was from 1976.
Anyone recall Lucille Ball playing a homeless woman on a made for tv movie during the Reagan years?
Population numbers increase, roughly the same rate of problems increase.
The rich poor divide has remained roughly constant through human history.
Contemporary media means we get to watch it all instantly everywhere. But it was always there.
Blues, ballads, country music.
People who came up through the bars and dancehalls and lowbrow society.
Luis Prima was surprisingly one advanced guy. New Orleans background.
Elvis stole his moves from Black folk.
Elvis was blonde who died his hair too.
Compare any working man song, Sixteen tons, John Henry, Six days on the Road, Willin, train references in songs, to any of the crap emotional shit out today.
The last great Rap community song was The Message bu Grandmaster Flash and the Furios five after that it became corrupted into gangbanger shit which whitey copped.
Don’t worry though Japan already has hologram bands.
Risk management, as ever. Some do and some don’t.
Is the American century’s massive centralized social insurance complex self-dismantling? It seems many are being reclassified as outside the payee pale. It is like a corporate bankruptcy waterfall, and the lower layers of equity are being jettisoned.
Can you imagine the whole of NYC moving to greener pastures elsewhere, along with the whole of L.A., Chicago and other large cities? What a mess that would be for elsewheres. Elsewheres couldn’t handle the influx. Was just reading a story about some people having moved to Thailand, going broke. Maybe they weren’t as smart as they thought they were.
Globalists are promoting owning nothing and being happy. What greener pastures those will be.
Cambodia; Pol Poi emptied the cities and told his people to farm. Most died.
Social Security shares with Ponzi schemes the feature that benefits in excess of contributions and interest to early participants (as long as they last) are paid largely by later participants. However, it is not a Ponzi scheme in that it is backed by law, providing assurance that most of the promised benefits will be paid. After the OSDI runs out of Trust fund money around 2032, close to 80% of benefits (slowly decreasing thereafter to around 70%) will be paid out from taxes collected from workers under current law.
Like BITCOIN?
The federal government will borrow the rest to make recipients 100% whole.
The economy is being run in reverse. It is being financed by primarily new money, instead of primarily existing savings. The U.S. Golden Era in Capitalism was driven in 2/3 by existing savings. The nonbanks grew much faster than the banks and that made the bankers, the ABA, jealous. So, the ABA forced Congress to raise Reg. Q ceilings for the commercial bankers 5 times, causing disintermediation of the thrifts.
To overcome the deceleration in the economy the FED loosened monetary policy. It caused stagflation, the Great Inflation.
And then the ABA won again. It had Congress eliminate Reg. Q ceilings causing the S&L crisis.
Then the bankers won again during the GFC, Bernanke remunerated IBDDs causing disintermediation of the thrifts and the bankruptcy of half the home builders.
The juxtaposition of falling real personal income and 3% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter is interesting.
Are you suggesting our honest BIGOV lies?
Anyone carried out from the floor on the copper today?
MY copper in storage just sits here doing nothing. like it is supposed to do. same with my silver and gold.
So in a Mad Max scenario, how does that work?
The copper(jacket) protects the gold and silver.
I hide mine in the walls of my house, but use it to carry electrical current!
i remember a time when a hundred dollar bill was baller. now it’s bupkiss. inflation is rampant. stagflation is here. got bell bottoms.
Vintage?
israel first. zion don our pederast potus. PEDOTUS. democracy works perfectly. assholes elect assholes. the “republic of plato” warned us.
correction. MR PEDOTUS
The Cheeto Pedo
u add nothing to this blog.
Wow, you never visited Zero Hedge have you?
SNAP down.
As long as the rich are getting richer, this is the course we will stay on. Anybody that tries to get elected to change it will be confronted with an opponent surfing a huge wave of money.
It’s Bastille time.
I keep saying collapse to rebuild Russia style with Chinese credit score as the structure.
Trump leaves 2026, Vance gets the two years and two terms. I imagine MTG will be his VP she is working against all the recent bad news.
Civil violence will be fun too.
Doesn’t Webb cover Vance’s ties with all those bad tech people and the added bonus of what lives still from Epstein and the new Diddy honeypot stuff.
Of course Google will stop allowing these types of comments or searches for anything other than mainstream double plus good thought.
One cannot eat “double plus good thought”. Expect trouble from those who will have nothing to lose. Better get hotter on the gun control agenda.
Ironic statement the 1984 reference. Slightly OT
“Governments in the UK, US, EU and Australia are now censoring anyone who exposes their censorship while claiming to shield children. That co‑ordination looks oddly synchronized. In Australia the new law bans social media for under‑16s starting December 2025 and includes YouTube after eSafety flagged it as the most harmful among youth 96 % of children surveyed experienced harmful content there, critics say https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/31/australia-social-media-ban-us-00194589.”
Originally every ISP had thousands of FREE newsgroups for subscribers.
They covered every topic and I personally found many fan subbed foreign media.
Then they claimed that KIDDIE PORN forced them to remove every single group.
Obviously they wanted to save money.
The above just reeks of censorship and mind control and clearly GREED.
I also wondered how those NEW UK/EU laws impact posters/users outside their area of control.
> ” … Google will stop allowing these types of comments or searches for anything other than mainstream double plus good thought. …”
No, social media will be a flytrap. Why give up its utility as a surveillance tool?