Skip to main content

Recession Watch: The Yield Curve is the Most Inverted Since the Early 1980s

The yield curve inverted more steeply following the retail sales report on Wednesday.
  • Author:
  • Publish date:
Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish

Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish

On the dismal retail sales report on Wednesday, the yield curve steepened towards deeper inversions.

Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, inversion calculations by Mish

Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, inversion calculations by Mish

Inversion Notes 

  • 2-year to 10-year spread: -0.69 Percentage Points
  • 30-year to 3-month spread: -1.15 Percentage Points
  • 10-year to 3-month spread: -1.32 Percentage Points

One has to go all the way back to the early 1980s to find inversions this deep.

10-year Minus 3-Month 2023-01-18

Yield Curve to Scale

Yield Curve to Scale 2023-01-18

Signs Say Industrial Production Has Peaked and so a Recession is Imminent

In case you missed it, please see Signs Say Industrial Production Has Peaked and so a Recession is Imminent

Judging from dismal industrial production numbers, a recession is imminent if indeed it hasn't already begun.

Scroll to Continue

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

For the latest retail sales report, please see December Was Another Retail Sales Disaster, Even Worse With Negative Revisions

Not to worry. I'm sure it's different this time.

Please Subscribe!

Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish