If this is winning, what does losing feel like?
Stocks Plunge, Dollar Sinks After Trump’s Tariffs Blitz
The Wall Street Journal reports Stocks Plunge, Dollar Sinks After Trump’s Tariffs Blitz
U.S. markets slid Thursday in one of their worst days in years, as investors grappled with the threat that President Trump’s sweeping new tariff plan will hurt economic growth and corporate profits.
Major stock indexes dropped as much as 5% and stood poised to suffer their worst day in more than two years. Stocks have lost roughly $2.7 trillion in market value Thursday, on track for their largest decline since March 2020.
The Dow industrials dropped about 1200 points, nearly 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, which powered the market higher for years, slid 4.8%, led by big declines in Nvidia, Apple and Amazon.com.
President Trump’s lifting of tariffs to above the notorious Smoot-Hawley rate of 1930 is a tax on imported goods, and the biggest tax rise in modern history. Not surprising, then, that stocks have plunged, with the Nasdaq off 5.2%, which if sustained would be its worst day since the lockdowns of March 2020.
Reactions
- Gold Continuous Contract GC00 $3131.00 USD-35.20 -1.11%
- Crude Oil CL.1 (NYM) $66.60 USD-5.11 -7.13%
- DJIA DJIA (Dow Jones Global) 40963.39-1261.93 -2.99%
- Nasdaq COMP (Nasdaq) 16739.44-861.60 -4.90%
- S&P 500 SPX (S&P US) 5457.16-213.81 -3.77%
- Russell 2000 Index RUT (US Composite) 1935.18-110.18 -5.39%
Canada to Hit U.S. Autos With Retaliatory Tariffs
Also note Canada to Hit U.S. Autos With Retaliatory Tariffs
Canada will match President Trump’s auto tariffs with 25% tariffs of its own on U.S. vehicles that are not compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday.
He said the countertariff would apply only to finished vehicles and wouldn’t affect vehicle content from Mexico. It wasn’t immediately clear how many vehicles would be affected, but Carney said the tariff could raise $5.6 billion U.S., which would be used to help workers and companies affected by the Trump tariffs.
Bonds Rally
Bonds are up (yields down)
- 10-Year Yield: -15 basis points to 4.05 percent
- 30-Year Long Bond: -7 basis points to 4.77 percent
- 5-Year: -19 basis points to 3.76 percent
- 2-Year: -17 basis points to 3.74 percent
Simply Crazy
This is crazy, definitely not winning.
Will Trump stay with this and for how long?
Winning! Thanks to our Dealmaker in Chief”! I especially like they way he does things in careful, temperate ways and shows all those losers whose boss! He is my lord and saviour! I have no doubt that all those company will just abandon their investments (factories, trained employees, etc) and start building factories and plants here. In fact, I bet they are already buying land. Because they know that the dealmaker in chief wont cave because he’s just so badass! Once all those factories are here, we’ll be able to sell our $30 t-shirts and $3,000 Iphones all over the world. I can’t wait until the all-powerful Trump strongarms the Saudi’s to start producing their oil here! 3-D Chess, man, I’m telling you! All hail the dealmaker! All Hail Trump!!!!!!
As a Canadian, I can say this has caused some politicians to look in the mirror and see that they have not been attending to Canada’s interests for a long time. If Trump causes us to actually do something about our unfortunate tendency to suck on the US teat instead of doing the heavy lifting needed, then some good will come of this.
I came to Canada in ’71 and quickly learned we were “hewers of wood and drawers of water”. It’s only worsened since then. The big example – energy. We have some of the biggest reserves in the world; what we do dig out, we make very difficult to move and when we do ship it, very little value is added. This has been (and still is) government policy and we voted for the government. Lots more stupidity to deal with but I doubt we have the balls to change.
dumbest economic move since smoot hawley. probably a great deal worse too as hoover did NOT go punching our neighbors in the face for nothing.
Change in a comin. Time will tell what the effects are. I’m rooting for more winning. That’s the American way. I’m happy to see Wallstreet losing its grip on power. This is long overdue. Keep it up, Trump. Hurry up & start striking pharma deals to remove our dependence on China. It’s nearly at the top of our national security risk along with making electronics or sourcing them from friendly nations. Get the move on. Time is a wastin.
millions of American’s depend on the stock market for their retirement. How can you say you are glad? Either you are already retired and sitting on cash or perhaps haven’t saved a dime for retirement and want everyone else to be in your boat.
Also who is Trump going to strike Pharma Deals with since he’s made an enemy out of everyone?
None of what you’ve said here makes any sense.
If you are close to retirement and still depending on a volatile stock market that you think should only go up forever, that’s on you. Take a breath, then look at a weekly or monthly chart of the Nas. We are not even back to the Aug 2024 low yet. Six months from now you will be kicking yourself that you didn’t buy here. Remember 2008? The supposed end of the world?
If you bought 6 months after the start of that crash you would have lost a lot of money
Hey, Sledge, retirement planning is a long-term view right?
Guess what? The whole goal of what Trump is trying to accomplish is a medium to long-term goal. He’s already said there’s going to be a detox period. Well guess what? It’s started.
Yes, I am a conservative investor, so I have a lot of cash earning guaranteed money. I’m 98% immune to a stock market crash, until it get’s big enough and then we’re all having to scramble & deal with the societal breakdown.
Everything I said makes complete sense from my perspective which is different from yours. No worries!
I am convinced Trump and fam and his whole cabinet are shorting the market and will time the bottom too. Who is going to stop him? theSEC? DOJ?
SCOTUS gave him a free pass from criminal liability.
And making himself billionaire by selling meme cryptocoins.
his coin is trading under $10 and took a big hit along with everything else. Probably delisted soon.
A tad quick to call it, don’t you think? Give it at least a few months. They haven’t even had a chance to return the calls from all the countries who called to capitulate.
“If this is winning, what does losing feel like?”
Losing is what we’ve been doing for decades. But you knew that.
Losing how?? we have the biggest economy, low unemployment, cheap stuff… how exactly are we losing?
And how exactly will tariffs make us win?
Do you really think companies are gong to start the decade-long process of building factories, spending billions on robots, because of the actions of a senile nut who changes his mind every 10 minutes and will be dead of natural causes before those factories are built? and what do you think a car will cos at the end of all of that investment? who will be able to afford anything when a basic car is $80,000?
If someone has to explain the other viewpoint to you, then it’s probably not worth their time.
Senile nut: you’re talking about the last guy, right?
Trump has already done 10 times the interviews Brandon did in 4 years, half of which was spent on vacation.
yes, the last guy was senile too. Newsflash: more than one person can be senile!! And there’s differnet tyoes of senility, one is a feeble quiet doddard like Biden, the other is gregarious incoherence-spewer, like Trump!
everytime trump gives an interview the US is made weaker. he should give fewer. and by the way, from all accounts, Trump spends most of his time golfing. which unfortunately isn’t enough, but then, it doesnt’ take much time to ruin things, right?
As the current guy is playing golf while the markets crash from his delusions….
Not sure where you’ve been but the factory construction boom started in 2018 … under the same senile old guy
“Losing is what we’ve been doing for decades. But you knew that.”
Best quote of the day, Bayleaf! Bravo!
Losing for the last few decades? Yes since Lord Regan. You ain’t seen nothing yet!
MAGA = AINO (American In Name Only)
Wait, are you talking about REAGAN?
You can’t even spell his name?
Losing for the last few decades? Yes since Lord Regan. You ain’t seen nothing yet!
MAGA = AINO (American In Name Only)
For the SPX, 3 February 2025 commenced a 4-phase terminal growth and crash fractal decay series: 8/19/18 of 20/12-13 days :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x with the SPX’s 19 Feb 2025 peak contained in the 2nd 19 day fractal. The asset debt macroeconomic system is in the terminal portion of a 33 year 2nd Fractal of a 1982 to 2026 13/33 year interpolated 1st and 2nd Fractal series. (This series is interpolated in a larger US 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year series with lows in 1807, 1842-43, July 1932, a peak in Nov 2021, and an expected now in 2074-207. 2nd Fractals are characterized by terminal 2x-2.5x gapped nonlinear lower lows which can be observed on daily and weekly charts. Witness the gapped nonlinear lower low today for the Dow-Jones Transportation Index which lost over 9% and reached a 17 month low valuation. A April 1, 2025 primer on time-based fractal macroeconomics can be found googling ‘The Economic Fractalist.’ Likely few will believe this nonlinear devaluation is a natural inevitable self-ordering process that has been made substantially worse by the Hoover 2.0 tariffs and the further fracturing of 80 year alliances by the 2 April 2025 economic warfare. Good timing for the implementation of the Golden Age. Hopefully more Republican senators (Rand Paul provided a fine oratory) and congress persons will wake up and reestablish their governmental branches’ authority.
and an expected low …
and expected low in 2074-2077…
The stock market is two things:
1. a forward looking “barometer” of the economy.
2. an economic voting booth
The fact that the “temperature” has dropped from red hot to ice cold is indicative of the people’s view on the future of the economy and the current administration’s policies. The future is so bleak, you gotta wear put trades.
Let’s not forget we are just at the beginning of this mess and even if Trump caves and backtracks, the damage is done. As the market continues to plunge there may be some great buying opportunities if you know what to buy.
I’m catching the NVIDIA falling knife at every 10% drop via puts for even greater discounts. This is one falling knife I’m willing to get cut up on. I’m also selling calls all the way down.
Right. Not very forward looking with the PPT. And 1600 isnt a crash off 40k. If it were truly forward looking would be far lower. Its a cluster ….
it is none of those things. it is just gambling. no statistical correlation on earnings and prices unless you hold for 15 years. the cost of money and printing of is much more important.
= a forward looking “barometer” of the economy.
bs! it is not
it is just macro stats are so bad, so market looks like better!
MACRO STATS ARE GOVERNED BY state entities (labor, etc), so naturally it is bad!
Uncle Buffy has been sitting on at least $300,000,000,000 pile of cash for quite some time, for some mysterious reason. Prob has an ancient high school econ book in the attic with “PE” in the glossary.
The stock market needs to fall considerably further to vindicate investors who’ve been sitting on significant cash for the past few years. Perhaps it will but for now, those folks have missed out on massive gains, even after the recent ~15% correction.
The tariffs are aimed quite accurately at what Trump wants – punishing importation of (finished) goods. There will be a hit to profits and the stockmarket and unhappiness all abroad. Russia is largely autarchic, USA will become the same. Not the end of the world, just the end of US sponsored globalism.
And here it is as expected, the weighing of policy by the market’s one day reaction. Remember the Taper tantrum? Paging the last 17 years of “winning” if we look only at the stock market (and the everything bubble). Using the same thinking the last 17 years had unabated positive policy, which runs counter to the entire blog or my general impression of our world. If only we looked through the single lens of the stock market then everything has been roses for 17 years, excepting the pandemic year.
Gosh, the market is way way back to August 15 2024 levels. Wow. Is that losing? Is that a catastrophe? Don’t keep the personal income taxes and the economy probably suffers too, will the market tell us what they think of that because up until now it hasn’t hinted it’s worried I’ll have a lot less in my pocket to spend next year.
Regardless of how one feels about the tariffs (or tax cuts, immigration, greenald, ukraine, israel, oil, energy, health care), the market’s one-day reaction is not THE measuring stick.
What it does tell you is there is massive uncertainty in these policy moves. Okay, that’s the correct view, so take a risk-off valuation approach. The market should always be pricing in downside risks but they have ignored risk and uncertainty forever because fiscally and monetary policy have washed over all risk. In fact post November 5th they priced in a risk-on approach until very recently.
So color me unconcerned about the initial reaction. I’ll be concerned if, months from now, we have long-term inflation changes, no change in trade between nations, and a market that’s actually suffered real damage. Taking it back to August 2024 levels is not one for me.
I’m more concerned we don’t have budgets or any codified meaningful spending reductions in law and a Congress that remains steadfast in doing nothing.
“the market’s one-day reaction is not THE measuring stick.”
Only someone with TDS would think so.
spending reductions? are you sober? not a shot in hell. zion don is spending more than sleepy genocide joe by 7%. debt up 4 trillion by his cult.
Oh well
This is what the call in soccer an “own-goal”.
I think given the USD performance, we can keep calling it football for a while.
Tariff wars, trade wars, cold wars, proxy wars, hot wars, all wars are rackets!
Trump just cost the markets $3 trillion in losses so he might be able to collect $500 billion in tariffs. In the process he has our former allies trading with our enemies and is isolating our nation from the world.
He was a bad actor and worse business man, now he is destroying our nation and our relationship with our strongest allies.
I am tired of trumps lies and incredible shortsighted mismanagement of the economy.
Elections have consequences.
Let’s give him more than 3 months ok ? Let’s see how things look in a year. I didn’t vote for the guy but jeez. I have been saying for years globalization was bad for the first world middle class. Democrats and Republicans brought on themselves. Dems like to say if something happens to one of them it means all of them. Well what happen to the entire middle class under Democratic and Republican administrations ? They kept losing.
He doesn’t need 3 months, we have 2000 year history that central planning DOES NOT WORK. Never has, never will.
Exactly. This “give him a chance” stuff is dishonest on the part of everyone repeating.
yup. just dummies that fell for a cult and cannot admit the cult leader is a moron.
trump already had four years of massive screw ups.
In only two months he has already lost Americans $6 trillion in a crashing stock market!
Now his DOGE and tariffs carnival alienate our allies and federal employees and agencies are targeted.
Who does trump work for?
“Who does Trump work for?”
That’s easy, everything he does, everything is to feed his ego, his mental illness. He is a sick man to be pitied, that he is POTUS is a tragedy.
3 months? In 24 hours he said tariffs are negotiable.
Bond yields went down, so he’s saving us money there.
Yep, because the bond market expects the economy to crash over the next few years. Oil price is down as well: enjoy the low gasoline prices during TrumpSlump.
Looks like the socialist countries are going to have to compete with the US and allow market access or pay tariffs? Hurray!!!!! Let the socialists eat their own cooking.
The fake world is collapsing and reality will take its place. But the stock market based on reality is about 10-20% lower.
Started with 60% cash and now down to 50%. Hopefully will eventually be fully invested.
Why are you humiliating yourself by repeating your tribe leader‘s nonsense? 1 + 1 is not 3, it’s as simple as that.
What he really means is 1-1+2=2
I wrote a book in 2014 (before Trump) about the importance of trade deficits. “Where Do Profits Come From: The Road to Economic Prosperity”. What have you done?
Socialists prefer centralized planning of the economy. Trump prefers centralized planning as well; tariffs and high deficits!
how did mish, a libertarian, who’s top issue over the years has been free-trade and ecnomics attract such an large economically illiterate gaggle of readers?
Fungi are eating southern Cal trees. Trump will not support Palisade until Gavin secures the forests.
Honestly, its too early to tell!
Don’t you think. Its just one day people
Who would have thought that the resolution of the twin deficits would be approached in this manner? Normally there is political posturing plus some cosmetic changes and in the end the can is kicked down the road. This is extreme shock treatment that shows these guys are deadly serious. I had given up on believing that someone, anyone was taking these problems seriously but I was proved wrong.
I am so glad that the old Republican guard has been swept away because they would have been incapable of conceiving of such a plan let alone setting it into motion.
Europeans are starting to believe that Trump will not back down and that the old tactic of tariff talks that last years doesn’t work with him. Their only true leverage is a tariff on services and we will see how that goes. It’s not that obvious.
If the EU rebuild their industries they will need Putin and the Mag 7. To be successful they will have to impose tariffs on China and Turkey. If they don’t the EU will not be able to finance their elderly. More than 21% of the 450 millions EU population are over 65. Many retire earlier, The EU might rule with an iron fist: cut vacations, healthcare and education. The EU rulers: I like Trump
I agree, Doug. The sooner we can get Turtle, Collins, Murkowski, et al to join Romney, the better.
At some point, a politician has to step forward & take budget & trade deficits seriously.
The day will come, probably a lot sooner than most people think, when China will attempt to retake Taiwan. When that happens, we will be cut off from all sorts of strategic goods like pharma, electronics & REM that China supplies. When that happens, a lot of non-military people will die. And we won’t be able to build new missiles, bombs, etc to protect Taiwan or ourselves.
Trying to level the trade playing field would seem to be a no-brainer as well as getting Europe to take more responsibility for protecting its members.
I’d rather they join McCain.
I’d still try to get debt reduction in exchange for lowering tariffs.
Mish didn’t you say we are in the era of de-globalization ? I would agree. This is just another step in that.
Rapid de-globalization I would add.
How can anyone make a judgement call on this in one day? There is no precedence and no one is expert enough, i think, to know the outcome from Liberation Day good or bad, especially given how erratic Trump operates, keeping in mind he is a deal maker. Will this persist, will he negotiate? I suspect the latter. Mish I suggest you post a recap on this in one year from today so we can reflect at that point. I do want to point out Buffett himself penned an article in Fortune in 2003 that running trade deficits will rot the US. Do you think Buffett is smart?
There are three questions to ponder (i) were tariffs the right approach – most would say no. (ii) are the tariffs fair for the US given trade imbalances, and (iii) was the shock approach good or bad? Obviously terrible for several businesses like Apple and RH. Is it better to rip the band aid off?
My judgement call was in advance – repeatedly for months
This is damn asinine
Trump needs to dump Elon and just restore government services. I think he would get broader support on tariffs if he hadn’t had a bromance with Elon.
Doge has more work to do yet. A couple of more months and he can leave.
Hopefully a couple of more months and he will OD.
Challenger, Gray and Xmas attribute 79% of the firing in Mar to chainsaw Ilan, the highest in decades, including 2020. Many of them are Mish commentators.
And yet the Mish commenters seem to be fine with the decision. Everyone knows the distribution of wealth vs work has been seriously off kilter for some time, and most Mish commentators are overjoyed about this shock event being the first step to bring the economy back into balance. Prosperity for the top 20% and only the top 20% has run its course as a social contract. The distribution of wealth will be more balanced after this shock, leading back to a healthy economy down the road.
What you are really talking about is productivity. I think many Americans were sold a bag of dirt when it came to globalization. It failed too many people along the way. Trump would have never gotten where he is if people had been doing so great over the last 40+ years. What we are witnessing is de-globalization. Will take awhile but it will be better for America and worse for the world.
The Jain people never do physical work. They are sharp business people and traders. They are small in number, but they are the richest people in India. When globalization took over the moved to Antwerp and NYC. They Schumpeter the weak hands in the diamond industry and took over. They destroyed their customers and themselves.
Most Indians are poor, but in Jaisalmer and Jaipur there are many multi millions houses. Both are near Pakistan.
Jeff, visit Johnstown PA.
Trump has to walk back in 3 months time as inflation goes up by 10 to 20% and economy slow down. Stagflation sets in. Can he continue?
By that time, no one will be listening to him.
All of this winning is making my head spin.
An exPat financial guy working in Switzerland told me Europe and the UK plan to band together against Trump, including a widespread effort to not buy anything made in the U.S. We will have a tourist deficit as well, with increased Americans vacationing abroad but not many international tourists coming here. I have replaced my advisors who admit they voted for Trump. Not supporting idiocrasy.
Good luck with that. Your advisors will still rip you off regardless of who they support. They are in financial services to make money for themselves.
You think China is going to buy up what Europe produces, or maybe India, Japan, Indonesia, South America?
US consumer has been supporting the Globe for decades
You are not going to like what piles up in the storage yards in Europe.
There is a simple way for that not to happen. Figure that out and Europe will not have to skip a beat.
That’s the official line. Companies on the other hand see the solution is to build production in the US. Just ask them and they will tell you.
They tell me that they have less competition and will increase prices.
You understimate the EU’s administrative dictatorship characteristics. When faced with a choice between freeing more trade and imposing more regulations and controls, the EU will choose more controls and try to trap its capital (corporate first and later on personal). Direct investment in the US will be verboten (or taxed highly enough that the effect is the same), and the trade war will get worse instead of being de-escalated.
European companies do not follow government orders like soldiers.
The dollar demand is already falling, given its decline against most foreign currencies today. Its days as a hard currency are probably counted.
If that happens watch Trump pull out of nato and Europe crap its pants.
Hopefully, they won’t come to Canada either. The planet will be greener and cleaner.
The Nvidia etc. highs are marked by whatever the greater fool paid for it, just like in the late 1920s and late ’90s
Does anyone else thiink Lutnick is shorting the market? He sure seems happy. He was quoted today saying that we should trust Trump and let him run the world economy since he knows what he’s doing.
What a show!
This is even better than I expected.
It is going to be fun to watch it play out.
“ Trump administration officials insist that the sweeping tariffs are not a negotiation tactic, and that Trump “is not going to back off.”
Attaboy!
Loving it! Best economic experiment ever! The likes of which the world has never seen before. Or so people tell me.
All roads lead to martial law to protect the kleptocracy.
I know, this is the dream stagflation experiment we economists have all been hoping for. But I regret that we have to screw our own country for the dream to come true.
It’s okay if the country gets screwed because of this experiment. We will learn from it and become stronger as a result.
Look it. We all would like to see American manufacturing make a rebound, however there are better ways to do it than by this idiotic move. If anyone is cheering for Nvidia and Apple to lose half billion dollars in a day, then they are deranged.
Hatred of science and intelligence in the USA is at an all-time high. I recall an 1836 op-ed decrying the anti-intellectual bent of the times, proclaiming “we must educate the children of the land” and now Trump is pushing around universities telling them what they can and cannot teach, and training a generation of Americans to distrust media, analysts, science, and basically anything that is an expert in their field, unless they do what he says.
This shock is WAY to fast and big for any mr’g relo until after a recession or worse. No demand, and no disposable income after INSANE 54% (total) China etc tariffs and price hikes.
I think the damage is done, no matter what he does next.
This is what he wanted to do – break everything.
I think you’re right. Trump wants to break America. And he’s got a buddy who will pay him in untraceable gold to break America, damage NATO, wreck Western trade alliances, stop sending weapons to Ukraine. America and Europe broke Russia after they invaded Ukraine. Now Putin owns the guy who will break America, Ukraine and NATO. That’s my 2 cents. If you believe that, then every crazy thing Trump’s done makes complete sense. Trump’s not stupid. You don’t get elected President twice by being an idiot. But he is on the grift selling bibles, gold shoes,TrumpCoin,Truth Social, and he even sold Melania’s story to Amazon for $40 million. Trump is not America’s friend. Trump is trying to break America and have everyone bow down to him. He’s despicable and we’ll all pay the price for his neurosis and terrible character.
Yes today was a disaster, at least we got some comedy relief from Trump declaring a trade war against an uninhabited island. The man is truly deranged.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands
Another 15 days of comedy relief like this and we will have 15 good laughs and the stock market will be at zero. A pretty good deal for us though.
Trump 2.0 represents nothing more than a small bump in the road for the financial parasites running the greatest grift the world has ever seen.
Trump IS THE FINANCIAL parasite.
I guarantee you half his cabinet shorted the market yesterday.
Just buy Trump coin.
NVDA might breach Sept low and move up. It can breach Aug 5 low in Apr or during the next plunge. If it moves up the puke media will collapse. Wall street took down the mag7 for fun. Since [1M] QQQ is likely to close above Mar low: no recession in the next few month. SPX [1M] might glide above/below a resistance line: 1929 to 2000.
The stock markets have predicted 35 of the last 14 recessions.
The Dow is down from 45K to 40.5K. It’s above a support line: 1929 to 2000.
There is more clownery to come, certainly.
So long as Trump isn’t impeached or harpooned
There’s an obsessed whaler out there, sailing the golf courses in search of his White Whale?
Who told u ?
For those not keeping track. It’s been less than three full months since the inauguration. The metaphorical Titanic hasn’t even hit the iceberg yet.
If there is now a 2008-type meltdown in the financial system, this will be entirely due to Trump’s stupidity.
I think he’s doing it deliberately. He knows what a trade war will do to America and the world. Those jobs aren’t coming back to America. Maybe Mexico or El Salvadore.
This is a dream come true for SoCal real estate. First, there is a shortage because of the fire. Now, we get lower rates. Prices of suburban homes in Northeast and West Coast cities are going to move even higher.
Since it appears we are moving into stagflation, those suburban homes should continue to rise, much like they did in the 70s … which was the last time stagflation struck.
It did move interest rates down along with energy.
Good day for American consumer.
J. Powell is all upset Americans are going to have more Job opportunities.
Actually some layoffs in the auto industry were announced today. There will be more.
GM announced hiring in the auto industry today. There will be more.
The largest shift in our lifetimes was necessary to stop the decline of our nation. Within 5 years we will be THE powerhouse once again, we must be agile and increase skill sets.
What decline? We have peace and prosperity.
But maybe not going forward…..
what planet are you on???
We’ve been the leading nation throughout this Trump insane age, and we’ve had the best economy coming out of Covid, despite the GOP fighting to impeach and otherwise discredit everything Biden ever did. You are creating your own imagined misery, or worse it’s being force fed to you by external factors.
This was 100% expected. The rewards will come later.
The “rewards” have already arrived.
You forgot the ‘t’.
How Trump came up with his ‘reciprocal’ tariff formula
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-trump-came-up-with-his-reciprocal-tariff-formula-145530164.html
Trump isn’t Roosevelt, but this line from an old FDR speech reminds me of today:
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-madison-square-garden-new-york-city-1
FDR and his 100 days.
FWIW, I think what Trump is doing will bring the investor class back to reality. They won’t be able to make money as easily as they have the past 35 years. Trump should go after Wall street and tell them embracing globalization was not good for Americans who own nothing in the stock market.
OK, here’s some facts to counter your fact-free musings:
Retirement Savings:According to the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances, 54.4% of all families have retirement accounts, leaving nearly half of Americans who don’t have retirement accounts. 401(k) balances:The average balance in these accounts is $132,300.
So more than half of American families are investors and participate directly in the wealth-creation that the stock market produces.
The “average” balance in a 401K is skewed by those with extremely high balances.
The Median 401K balance is the relevant metric, and it’s only about half of the average.
So 46% of families don’t even have retirement accounts, and another 27% have less than $70K.
That’s not a lot of “participating directly in wealth creation”.
401k holders isn’t the reason Trump won. He was voted in by the working class in swing states.
you have no clue what percent of trump voters have 401ks. nobody does.
Everyone has now realized that Trump is an economically illiterate simpleton, now that we have seen the means and methods for calculating his inane variety of tariff rates. At least the evil penguins on those two islands will no longer be allowed to “take advantage of the USA”
Yep, those pesky penguins have had it too good for way too long, ripping off the US.
Yes sir.
I think it’s great that we are trying to level the playing field, however, some of the countries like China are in a very good position to ride out the storm. I personally do not think the United States has the economic prowess for a long term trade war without going into a good recession. Remember when COVID hit and everyone was like “golly gee we dont manufacture anything here and if there is a world crisis we have problems” – Well that time is upon us again.
China just surrounded Taiwan again during war games and live fired drills. Israel and Ukraine are one step forward and two steps back. Our deficit is massive and the housing market is looking a little 2008’ish. Trump did do well with immigration and uncovering fraud.
History will be the judge of Trump and his tariffs. I think it should have been handled a little more diplomatically before dropping the hammer on everyone’s heads but that is the Trump-meister.
Lutnick says $5T in new committed investment in America by mostly manufacturing and tech companies since Trump became President. If true, you should see companies start breaking ground on new plants before summer. The pressure is not on Trump but on the companies that said they would invest new money in America. Trump is taking them at their word. Time will tell if they are telling the truth or not.
ergo, no new plants breaking ground by summer will be yet another indication that you have been scammed.
“You” meaning every American citizen, Democrats and Republicans included.
Just like Foxconn?
No this is totally different. This is Trumpconn
I work in commercial construction and can tell you that since the election, there has been a wide-spread slowdown in the projects in our pipeline.
I personally blame it more on the elevated interest rates against a moderating financial backdrop.
But this tariff chaos has intensified everything, and we’re having to go back to our customers and force tariff expenses onto their invoicing.
Anyone who complains, we tell them to eat the cost or else we will declare ‘force majeure’ on the contract.
Besides commercial construction, all sectors will increase prices either because of tariffs or because of less foreign competition. This time is NOT different.
i hate to break your bubl but much of this had been announced or was in the pipeline before the election.
Was that because they knew he was going to win ?
You mean like the Trump 2016 famous brag about Foxconn building a plant in the U.S. that was going to bring 13,000 jobs?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-plant-once-touted-trump-13-000-job-juggernaut-will-n1264793
Good luck with that…America is in a demographic death spiral, less labor = higher cost labor. But keep dreaming.
What a joke that was. When Foxconn finally put up a building, they staffed it with engineers imported from China, lol. Oops, no jobs for Wisconsin people! Finally they pulled out, leaving a great scar on the landscape.
I used to read this blog because of your objective insight. Judging this decision 12 hours later seems to be showing your bias here, Mish.
Ah yes, another from the tribe that believe Trump can out-think all of the world’s leading economic analysts.
“Trust the science”
Only if a bleach blonde behind a fake desk delivers it.
no, you used to read it because you first noticed several articles you interpreted as anti-Dem articles, and you thought he was anti-Dem, and would nevrr utter a word against Trump. Then you read more and realized. you were wrong.
objectively, no one can look at this and say it’s a win. Even if all thet tariffs go away– do you think globally people will buy American? Consumers overseas are not going to buy american, and governments who may be browbeaten ointo submitting are slowly going to move away from trade with the US.
manufacturung jobs aren’t coming back until US workers agree to get paid what the Vietnamese or Chinese do.
Seeing trillions of fiat inflation being vaporized POOF! makes me SMILE.
Markets go up, markets go down. Try looking at a longer range before any conclusions are formed. 🙂
I didn’t vote for Trump but I do support him in his efforts to bring back manufacturing and industrial production to the United States. I think he is actually right on tariffs. Countries have erected trade barriers against the US but we have been “nice” and not retaliated. Even a former USTR rep under a Democratic administration (Obama) said what Trump is doing is what she wished Democrats had done long ago. The Democrats lost the economic message because it has been perceived for awhile they would do nothing to reverse the effects of globalization and not bring anything back to onshore due to environmental regulations. I think it will take some time but Trump will prove to be right if he can withstand the political forces. This is a battle between the globalists and putting America first.
Good for you to separate policy from the person. AS I said in the other thread, much of what he is doing was literally boiler plate Democratic policy decades ago. TDS is a real disease for many.
the dem policy of protectionism was idiotic. same goes for trump. trump was a lifelong dem here in his hometown. like most here are. they are idiots too.
even if you want manufacturing to come back, this isn’t the way to do it. because manufacturing didn’t leave because of other countries placing tariffs but because Chinese and Vietnamese workers are working for a fraction of US workers, 10 hours a day, 7 days a week, often living away from their families and paying their employer rent.
despite those tariffs, american companies sell trillions of products overseas. And we do a lot of damage with our policies that other countries understandably think justifies tariffs, like our fed reserve which reacts to things like a US-made great financial crisis which forces other countries to cut rates etc… You’re also ignoring numerous subsidies we give farmers, oil and other businesses, which are anti-competitive.
You can’t reverse globalization. maybe you can remove tht US from it, but that will be to our disadvantage.
also, it’s not clear what Trump actually wants. He, like you, says it’s to bring back jobs, but also that it’s retaliatory and why don’ they just remove their tariffs.
Ok, but if they remove their tariffs tomorrow, that’s not going to bring manufaturing back right? so maybe our stuff becomes more competitive overseas and we sell a bit more, but that’s not bringing manufacturing back– and do you think removing tariffs will make Europeans or canadians want to buy or stuff? I don’t. they view everyting american now as toxic.
The Asian population glut has run its course, China and the others are in population decline. The age of labor-cost driven deflation is over.
There’s room for competition now and it should be on a level playing field.
Not one where U.S. workers have to work for half of their competitors, just to make up for the competitors’ tariffs.
That’s just not how to do it. The US have no competitive advantage relative to other exporters. The last time that the US had it, the rest of the industrialized world had been bombed to ruins and it has thousands of engineers out of college. Washington is addressing the former by poking anyone ready to start WWIII, but STEM education is still lacking in numbers, even if not in quality.
All of the smart commenters below are obviously smarter than Elon Musk and Scott Bessent. These guys are uber-successful and looked at the financial trainwreck of U.S. Federal debt and economic hollowness and volunteered to help right the ship. We should be grateful to them. This adjustment has to be made. Manufacturing must return to the U.S. If you disagree, then, using Federal debt, spending, and tax revenue numbers, along with consumer debt and income numbers, and tell me how long you think that we could go on before a collapse, especially with adversaries actively working to undermine our position. Oh, the stock market is down — how is this winning? Sheesh, really?
Small minded short termism is how we got here as you said. No one patient enough to have a vision. Sad
bessent is a soros employee. just greedy. musk is a con man and huckster, greedy drug addict, and white trash bastard maker of fatherless babies………