How Does it Feel on Liberation Day Number Two?
Liberation Day was April 2. The lead image shows the results for Friday, April 4.
S&P 500 Down 10 Percent in Two Days
I hope you are feeling liberated now that the S&P 500 Loses 10% in 2 Days.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday, its biggest decline since June 2020 during the pandemic. This follows a 1,679 point decline on Thursday and brings the drawdown from its record to more than 14%.
- The S&P 500 nosedived 5.97% to 5,074.08, also the biggest decline since March 2020. The benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday and is now off more than 17% off its recent high.
- The Nasdaq Composite, home to many tech companies that sell to China and manufacture there as well, dropped 5.8%, to 15,587.79. This follows a nearly 6% drop on Thursday and takes measure down by 22% from its December record, a bear market in Wall Street terminology.
- The selling was broad with only 14 members of the S&P 500 higher on the day. Major market indexes closed at their lows of the session.
- The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) headed for its worst week in more than two decades as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies wreaked havoc on technology stocks.
- The fund has dropped more than 16% this week, hurt in part by Friday’s slide of nearly 7%. If that holds, this would mark the biggest weekly loss for the ETF since September of 2001, when it plunged more than 25%.
- In late afternoon trading, the S&P 500 energy sector was down 8.6%, according to FactSet. A decline in oil prices is likely contributing to the the selling for that group. Meanwhile, economically sensitive financials dropped 7%.
A few days ago someone asked me what Liberation Day meant. I said be prepared to be liberated from your money.
Winning Big Trump Quotes from Today
- TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!
- CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO! [see link below for discussion]
- GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING. HANG TOUGH, WE CAN’T LOSE!!!
Related Posts
April 4, 2025: China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day
China restricts 7 more rare earths, something I have warned about many times.
April 4, 2025: Powell Says the Fed Will Step Back and Watch. Trump Wants Rate Cuts
Trump will get his rate cuts by causing a global recession.
April3, 2025: Five Republican Senators Break Ranks With Trump Over His Tariff Madness
Five Republican Senators unite with Democrats against Trump’s tariffs.
Expect more liberation, perhaps after a dead cat bounce next week.
I hope you are feeling liberated now that the S&P 500 Loses 10% in 2 Days.
It didn’t particularly affect me. It’s not being able to trust the market since the record 22% 1 day drop, that has affected me.
I wish that we could embed tweets or images here. There’s a great one that lists what’s happened in the days, weeks, and months following each of the past 10 times there were two consecutive down days with 4.5% or greater losses. Makes a pretty strong case for buying the dip, especially when you look at the post-WW2 outcomes. Even though the charts says S&P, the pre-1957 data is the DJIA.
https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1908230048169042423
or
https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1908230048169042423/photo/1
The interface to Twitter is F’d up
Wordpress has an issue with it but the error is in Twitter. Not sure why other aps can can handle it, but WordPress can’t.
Twitter stopped responding to WordPress on the issue. For a while I was hopeful.
Having an industrial base is a national security issue. Right now, if WW3 started, we would not be able to produce anything. This needs to be fixed quickly and tariffs are the answer, even if it means higher prices.
Mish, I learn A LOT from some of your commenters here so please let them all keep posting.
I’ve learned Trump did us a favor by pricking this stock bubble so quickly (10% in 2 days) with his tariff strategy.
And that must be true because Trump took a victory lap and hit the golf links yesterday. Pretty good score and lots of smiles! Personally, I don’t mind losing money invested in US companies as long as I know our new leadership has its nose to the grindstone for us regular Americans.
So thanks for the new info, folks LOL
Tariffs are intended to restore good high paid jobs to Americans who need them.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1908423499875569751
Who do you think pays the salaries of these “high paid jobs to Americans”? And pays the hundreds of billions of tariff tax revenues expected to be collected.
= other Americans
But again, I imagine Trump’s companies front ran the tariffs and loaded up on the foreign-produced goods they sell to Americans for Trump’s own profits. They are set so he will have the time to hit the links again this weekend
100% of parabolic moves fail. Guaranteed. The only question is the timing. Creating the parabolic move is the cause of its reversal. Tulip bulbs were never really worth what they sold for at the top. They fell back to their intrinsic value. Who pricked the Tulip bubble centuries ago? Newsmax went public the other day at $14 and quickly ran up to a peak of $265, closing Friday at $45.51. Who pricked the NMAX bubble on the second day of trading?
The Z don’t care about the B. They are conservative like WWII vets. They can take a hit. They are the ones who will benefit the most in the long run from Trump’s policies. Blue collar millennials are also pro Trump. The dems are lost. Gavin became more conservative. He veered to the middle. Fetterman is pro Trump. The radicals hate Chuck. After backing up above 2022 high QQQ might rise to a new all time high, but Chuck might generate recession for the Nov 2026 senate election
Bubbles have to burst at some point. Anyone with a 401K who didn’t take some level a significant, pre-emptive move to cash or safety when Trump was voted in office has no excuse. You can sell all you want in a 401K and not pay taxes, people. Trump has done what he said he was going to do, and if you thought for a second that markets were going to take this in stride, then you need a new retirement planning mindset.
For all we know there might be 1-2 more meaningful sell offs down to about 35K before everything steadies and starts to move higher. Just watch what Trump does as well as all these countries he’s trying to equalize tariffs & invest accordingly.
I like QYLD. It uses covered calls and hasn’t dropped quite as much as QQQ. And at the current NAV, it’s paying 13.63 dividend.
SPY is backing up above 2022 high for technical reasons. This correction might be good enough for wall street. The rest is bs. By mid year the market will do what it wants to do until the next correction, a deeper one, possibly under 2022 high, for capitulation, before a spring and a jump.
In WWII women built 18,500 B-24 Liberators. Today we have a much smaller bomber fleet: 70 B-52, which were born in 1952, 19 B-2 which can penetrate highly defensive standing targets in China or Iran and 45 B1B. China has 120 H-6, a new version of Tupolev 16, that can 6 carry anti ships cruise missiles, or 20 smart bombs which threat our fleet, Japan and Taiwan. B1B maintenance cost $5M/Y. B-2 $15M/Y. The US is superior to China in firing power. Each F15 can carry over ten smart bombs. The B-2 first salvo can attack 50 standing targets, before F-15, F-18 or F-22 cont to inflict damage from a safe distance. In WWII we lost 12,000 B-17 and B-24.
I thought AI was the monolith that would save us.
Macron is telling the heads of French companies not to invest in the US as punishment for the tariffs and the head of one of the largest companies told him he doesn’t care what Macron wants him to do and they will invest in the US whether he likes it of not. He used the term in French that can be translated as “I don’t give a damn about what Macron wants.” It definitely conveys in French a lack of respect for Macron that is probably widespread in business circles.
Hopefully, Macron is the next to fall.
Macron’s second term expires in 2027 and he can’t run again. He has his eyes on being head of the European Commission next.
amerikans might try, not spending, like drunk sailors at house level, and for sure at the department of war level. trying to rule the world is expensive. the hubris of amerikans past century is off the charts idiotic. hence we elect idiots like zion don and genocide joe.
I cannot grasp the President and some Amercans understanding of economics, it really is economic illiteracy. They cannot understand why manufacturing and processes are offshored to other countries instead of keeping them in the US. Do you think the businesses are offshoring to be charitable? They are doing it because it is the cheapest, by a huge amount and makes the most economic sense. Do you know what is the most expensive and makes the least economic sense? Let me help you with that answer, bringing the manufacturing back to America. Trump is going to create a bunch of low paying factory jobs and the cost of products in the US is going to skyrocket. GREAT PLAN!!!
I think you are about half right. There will NOT be a bunch of low paying or enough jobs of any pay grade to offset the huge increase in the cost of living in the US. Otherwise I agree completely.
We are not competitive. Developing high cost, inefficient products makes no sense, unless you want to separate us from the world of competitive goods. Even with robots, instead of union labor, we will never compete. Its not 1950 when unions had a field day, given factories sold to a captive market.
Wealth is created via: Farming, Fishing, Mining and Manufacturing.
After WW II we were at the top of the heap. Now we are at the bottom.
The 5 reasons we have dropped off the charts are: Government Regulations, Labor Unions, Environmental Activists, Trial Lawers, and Tax collectors.
We need to get back to basics that we all can support. All else is a waste of time, we don’t have.
have a look at any new build 21st century factory , its staffed by robots, metal bashing factories in the West have had their day.
The fact is, he’s NOT going to bring back a bunch of low paid jobs because the exact reason you state. The cost of the goods produced, even if there are low paid jobs producing them (which there won’t be because not many people want those jobs and there are better jobs to be had), will still be so outrageously expensive (as you say) that there will be no market for them. And, with those assumptions in place, companies simply won’t do it. That doesn’t even touch the fact that these companies ALREADY have an investment somewhere else producing these goods. And they are not simply going to abandon those investments in order to make bad new investments here.
Now, from the Pandemic, we did learn that there are things that we SHOULD make here, at least to some extent. Like some drugs, supplies for our military needs, and whatever other goods that are deemed “necessary” or “strategic”.
This guy is such a blowhard and stupid, I just find it so hard to believe that he has half the country believing in his nonsense.
What you don’t understand is inflection points. When the pendulum swings too far in one direction, it swings back the other way. We are at a manufacturing inflection point. The early 1980’s were an inflection point on the rate of inflation. Inflections are painful, as they occur at extremes. Globalism has reached an extreme. Nationalist movements have been rising in response. U.S. and global debt is at an extreme. With chart, it was mentioned the other day here, that it takes $10 of debt to create $1 of GDP. That gap can’t continue to simply grow wider indefinitely. That is not a great plan. It has been sowing the seeds of its own destruction.
Less to this than meets the eye. A lot of money is being made by a very few. Anything new about that? Somebody wants the markets to fall. Some want an economic cleansing of some sort. Some of this is years of excess in valuations. Some is about truth. Some is about lies. Some is about relative historical valuations. Tariffs are only the catalyst to many. The drop was inevitable. Try to take all your emotion out, but accept the market and people are emotional nightmares. Anything can trigger an emotional wreck. Make it an opportunity for your personal improvement, not about how emotional you can be. The primary reason you or me struggle (to make money) so is because of us, not the evil them. It’s my fault I don’t have good investment performance, not everybody else’s. Call me full of shit, but I’m the primary reason I am not making money, not you or Trump or Biden or politics or or or or. Oh well.
You are correct about one thing. Your success is up to you. Focus your attention there.
Better to ignore conspiracies about the powers that be; because few of them are true; and even if any of them might be true, there isn’t anything you can do about it.
The public doesn’t know what goes on in secret behind closed doors. Musk said most of the conspiracy theories about Twitter were true. Yes, we can do something about it. Dr. Marks and Fauci’s wife are now gone from the corrupt public health agencies.
Like Gulliver breaking the ropes the Lilliputians used tie him down him down Trump is breaking these ropes one by one. DOGE is taking care of the massive government waste of money and eliminating whole pans of useless and often counterproductive departments, programs and people. The out-of-control spending by government hopefully will finally be controlled. That is a liberation.
The unfair and frankly idiotic trade practices we have been subject to is another rope being broken. That is a most difficult rope to break because it is entwined throughout our economy and our relations with other countries. Nevertheless it must be broken. That is a liberation.
An overhaul of rules and regulations that strangle any endeavor and the elimination of the laws that permit faceless government workers to make decisions that affect everyone and anyone without oversight nor input from those affected. That is a liberation.
A long overdue reset of defense obligations and partners with the review of whether each one serves our interests or only the interests of others is being done. That is a liberation. The purging of DEI from our institutions and from business will reap benefits for everyone. That is a liberation.
For me Liberation Day means all of this. Compared to these the stock market is incidental and hardly worth mentioning. It is just another heavy correction or bear market. We have seen them before but we have never seen in living memory these other things this administration is doing. I have no idea whether they will succeed or not. We will see.
you would fit in with the hasidic cult down the avenue from me here in kings county NY. those nut jobs think their dead rabbi is the messiah. their cult has been around a few centuries. 770 eastern parkway. i suggest you go visit. it’s a great petting zoo, also.
That explains everything you say.
I don’t want to p*ss on you bbq but Gulliver is a fairy story, its make believe Doug, a bit like the dog excrement TRUMP sold the naive US electorate.
It is something called an “allegory” which is a literary device that uses events, characters and objects to represent abstract ideas and concepts. Gulliver’s Travels was an allegory of British society and politics of the time and I used a scene from the book to convey to the reader the idea that Trump was breaking the chains that were holding us down. No one then when it was written in 1726 nor now view it as a “fairy tail” although many today who have only a passing knowledge of the book would say as you do. It is a shame because if you read the book you would recognize much of what is happening today but no harm done. I actually used it as a bit of a test to see what this blog’s readership reads.
Trump is mentally ill, his cult has become mentally ill. Hopefully when Trump is gone his cult will recover and become rational again.
Vietnam capitulated.
To the moon, and beyond come Monday !
The golden age has arrived!!!!
I used to worship the trinity, now I worship the orange messiah!!!
Lol
Vietnam didn’t do jack doogie.
Vietnam and Trump do not agree on the definition of zero tariffs.
I’m a dreamer…
Don’t hate me for it.
Hey Mish, gas took a big jump today in NM. Is this increase widespread? With oil down, the only reason I can think of, is Canada cutting us off.
NM brought in new clean fuel standards which kicked in and raised gasoline prices by up to 50 cents. So that is isolated to NM.
On the other hand, Trump dropped the 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports which might drop prices by 30 cents.
Canada has no desire to cut off exports to the US.
The real poopshow will begin when Trump bombs Iran for Netanyahu. The deadline on his ultimatum, which obviously won’t be agreed to, is May 1st. Bush the Dumber started bombing Iraq for Netanyahu on the same day of the deadline that was given to Hussein. But I think Trump will beg Netanyahu permission to wait until after markets close on Friday, May 2nd. Monday, May 5th is when the economy really goes down the toilet. It’s still just swirling around the upper part of the bowl right now. This is just the undercard. The week of May 5th is the main event.
He should bomb Satanyahu instead. Joke’s on you, Bibi.
I think you are correct.
This self inflicted wound will bleed for a long time. All the Trump arse lickers are thinking 2008 again, but I think if your time horizon is less than 5 years you are fucked….if less than 10 years, this is dodgy, 15 years and we might get over it.
you are an optimist. this empire is done. us states will start to secede effectively. i doubt there will be any announcements. alas this is actually a great thing. all world wide imperial war mongering empires have failed. best for mankind, including inside the homeland. don’t fret, it’s just the way of the world. go take a walking tour around europe or old ussr lands.
If red states secede they will quickly go bankrupt. The small about of services provided in those states will disappear and the citizens will eventually revolt.
Trumps plan good overview Tariffs come in as a trigger for domestic industrial revival. The thinking is: by making imports expensive, you create room for U.S. producers to step in
But here’s the problem: American factories can’t scale up overnight.
So in the short term, consumers will face higher prices.
The administration knows this.
That’s why they’re front-loading the pain now, betting that by 2026, the benefits will be visible.
In the meantime, they’re offering some near-term relief.
Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.
And while risky, currency devaluation may follow later to make imports cheaper without lifting tariffs.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1907880105369845865.html
6 trillion or more lost in investments in the last week.…expectations of a 6 trillion dollar tax cut for billionaires…I think their plans have gone horribly wrong.
On paper
“Tax cuts have already been floated to help offset the cost burden on households.”
47% of households pay no federal income tax so how does this help?
“A few days ago someone asked me what Liberation Day meant. I said be prepared to be liberated from your money.”
The Trump PUT is working, it’s PUTting everyone in the poorhouse.
Off topic, but I have to say it…there’s never been anyone with less dignity than Trump to occupy the WH.
It’s hard to blame Trump he is mentally ill, his cult followers have become mentally ill. Pity Trump hate his actions. MAGA = AINO (American In Name Only)
zion don and his great leap forward. his dumbfuck cult loves the abuse. like charlie manson and his acid head family……….the caprates on r/e are gonna be great in a year or 3. the bargains on stocks at 50% off in a year or so will be terrific. i love it.
I feel pretty liberated. Then again, I’m not greedy enough to have held stocks for the last 2 years. As I retiree, I don’t have 20 years to wait to get my money back.
Tariffs or not, the markets melting down was a function of time. Valuations are ridiculous by every known metric. Anyone invested in stocks over the last year is a speculative gambler with little concept of risk adjusted returns. Warren Buffet sitting on a stockpile of cash should have been ample warning yet the greedy never learn. Unfortunately many will get crushed.
Mish, Not sure how much longer you thought the bubble was going to last but they all eventually pop. The sooner they pop, the sooner we recover…especially with a smaller government burden.
Tariffs will probably have a hidden benefit. It is a tax on consumption. While the cost of some necessities will rise, DISCRETIONARY consumption will drop and overall savings will rise. In America, nearly everyone has what they NEED. There is no good reason to invest with asset prices where they are at and therefore we should save.
I can’t find much wrong with what Trump has done so far. He has proven to be a good negotiator, has sealed up the borders, is reducing gov’t fraud/waste/payroll, and eliminated DEI stupidity. What’s not to like? Pain builds character. American’s have become entitled, lazy little bitches that cry at the slightest bit of pain. The Fed can’t save them anymore, time to grow up and use your brain lol!
you are one messed up fascist
lol you are one messed up communist
Wrong… but you always are
You do realize that this administration is in the process of the largest central planning operation this country has ever seen? Top down. Total control by just a few. Shutting down the media they don’t like. Crushing the journalists and writers that they don’t like. Delivering vengeance to anyone one who speaks against dear leader. This is communism/fascism. You really need to check out your ID sometime. Mike.
Clever hedge fund managers got margin calls today. They’ll be renting the wife and selling their dogs to cover all next week.
i’ve always prospered best after complete wipe outs. lots of services will be cheaper too. think of all the MAGA swag on fire sale. maga cult will need to do tricks on 42nd street.
Need pics of the wives
really??? Think Walmartians on steroids. Asses hanging out of their leggings. Mammaries around their navels. Do I need to paint you a picture.
Used trophy wife, run hard and put up wet.
Need pics of the dogs.
Wait until:
It really is funny! The corporations who support maga policies were planning on a 6 trillion dollar tax break. They’ve just lost more than 6 trillion in the stock market. Tell me again, how these folks know what’s going on with this orange menace.
Sure thing -1. Orange daddy is going to fix it all.
Okay -2. Truth hurts. Seriously, I can not understand your love for this disaster.
BWAAAAHHHHHHHHH. it’s a funny cult of morons.
Charlie knows best. Manson family acid heads thought so too.
“The tourist industry in this country will collapse.” As an example we had planned a vacation in Utah and CO visiting National Parks this summer, total budgeted a little over $4000. After Trump’s stupid actions firing NPS employees we canceled all reservations and put off the vacation. We were considering buying a new car to replace an old second car…..plan canceled, $30K stays in the bank.
Agree with all points except the first. Canada will only impose strategic tariffs in areas that maximize US pain, while minimizing Canadian pain. Look at their reciprocal US auto tariff as an example.
Unlikely they will put an export tax on energy, unless the US keeps adding more tariffs on Canada.
And Trump was smart enough to drop the 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports.
So I don’t think energy prices will increase much because of tariffs.
Can the housing market do it in two days?
That would be the true liberation day for the average financially oppressed masses.
One particularly bloody summer would do it.
That could literally turn out to be true.
Well, yesterday my NAV was up just over 1%. Today a 2.6% loss. For the week, down about 2%. To me that’s a victory, but I’m in max safety mode, except for a bit of speculation. And I was a buyer today, with many of my currently held mining, shipping, and energy stocks down double digits.
Cash. Gold. Silver. A dozen gambles on explorers, 3 shipping stock and one gas/oil stock. That’s it. Anyone who lost big this week hasn’t been paying attention for the past -2 months.
It gets worse from here. And it has zero to do with tariffs. Sure, they arent helping. But the recession and 40-50% correction in store was baked in the cake a long, long time ago. Long before Trump even formally announced.
Aren’t you brilliant? I’m totally in awe of your financial acumen.
Gold, silver, cash, and PBR here. I’ve been holding onto Petrobras for its high dividend and the high probability that Trump will continue his destruction of the global economy by bombing Iran for Netanyahu, which would likely mean the destruction of all Middle Eastern oil infrastructure.
Every corporation that hopes to survive and prosper must relocate manufacturing to USA. The future of Americans has never been brighter. Those who invested in European windmills and unicorn farts or cheap Chinese labor need a rethink.
Which US companies are you buying in order to prosper from this bright future?
From GreyHairOpsGuy on X
“Just got the call to drop my rig. Truly sad day for me. Four years of work – acquiring enough inventory to build a drill schedule for one rig – down the drain. Praying prices recover before my leases expire, so my company doesn’t go BK. Sad. “
Ouch! Poor guy.
I expect rig counts to start dropping.
Cheap energy is the mother’s milk of our prosperous industrial civilization.
Yes it is. However, the cure for cheap commodity prices is cheap commodity prices.
Break-even for US drillers is $65. If prices stay below $65, drilling will be dramatically reduced. Which will eventually restrict supply, until prices go back up.
This wipes out the little guys. Who get gobbled up by the big guys.
Same as always.
What’s your take on why oil prices are down so much? Something doesn’t add up, there.
The Treasury trading desk manipulated oil prices to bust Putin.
Three main reasons: fear of recession and a drop in demand; OPEC’s decision to bring back some of their spare capacity, which will add a small bit of supply; trading in the paper market (which is 50x the physical market) which exacerbates price movements in the short term.
smelling like 2008 panic or perhaps 1929. there will be a few small and large, fortunes made, and plenty destroyed. i remember our hood in phoenix went down 70 percent on house prices from top in 2005. cap rates were so juicy by 2011. i couldn’t resist.
There are always winners who can take advantage of the situation.
If this continues for a while and oil prices stay low, look for companies like Canadian Natural (which has break-evens of $30 and an incredibly strong balance sheet) to start picking up small players for pennies on the dollar. Just like they did in previous periods like this.
Where is the rig?
Not sure. Likely TX or possibly LA. Didn’t see specifics on his X feed.
Marginal wells shutting down. Makes sense.
Just a few thoughts…
if FAANG+ was 30+% of the S&P, isn’t the last two days a good thing?
if Trump’s plan works…great
if Trump’s plan blows the market up…great, it needed to be blown up. Mish you know better than most that Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen did not do their jobs as FED chairs, they simply protected Wall Street. The middle class has been crushed by the FED…
as far as “average tariffs” on U.S. exports, Mark Twain said it best, “ there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.
the job of the FED is to keep her owners solvent. that’s the NYC banks. end of story. the rest is hooey and bunk pitched to imbeciles or naive rubes who don’t know their history or reality.
The market needs to correct a lot more before it reaches normal valuation metrics. This was the most overvalued market in history. I have been patiently waiting for the STHF . Been 90% in tbills.
“Why are they booing you? You’re right!”
Here’s an interesting and unusual valuation metric: the value of the Dow Industrials index, priced in hours of unskilled labor.
In 1929 just before the crash, an unskilled laborer could “earn a share of the Dow” with around 860 hours of labor. (Dow peaked at $380, hourly earnings $0.44/hour).
But now, at Federal minimum wage ($7.25) it takes over 6000 hours of labor to “earn a share of the Dow” at its most recent peak.
Even at $15/hour one would need 3000 hours.
(A better metric might be how many hours of labor it would take to buy enough Dow to earn an hour’s pay worth of in dividends, but that would also be frightening…)
The equivalent today would be around $30 and hour since unskilled in1929 is not a category that is applicable today so one would need to work 1500 hours instead of 3000. The result is the same. The market, especially the tech segment, is horribly overvalued.
In 1929 the average yield was 3.1% and today it is 1.38% so we roughly see the same degree of overvaluation. By your method, the market is twice as expensive today as it was in 1929.
The “high tech” stocks of the period dropped an average of 50% in the 1929 crash while the overall market tumbled 38%. Maybe we will get the same today although the economic situation is very much different but the behavior of people in a market panic never changes.
Trump’s winning means his pain is more than me.
Actually he’s got visible pain as well as invisible pain such as in economy, politics,
military and so on.
What will be obvious is he can’t stand multiple pain.
Oh no! The frankengineered fiat financialization schemes for transferring all wealth from the middle class to the elites has undergone a 48 hour disturbance! BTFD?
Wasn’t a disturbance. It was a transfer from all those 401ks into the holes created by decades of financial engineering. A lie nobody truly understands was partially reconciled. Promises have been made that won’t be kept.
Feels pretty good.
Energy down again which will do wonders for US vacationers doing a road trip this year within US.
Interest rates down again which will start to get people interested in Housing.
As to housing am seeing sales within two days of listing in my area.
Since there is another side to equation which gets somehow overlooked, how about them German numbers today.
Feb. Factory orders at a whopping 0.0% MoM
Last month got revised up to a minus 5.5%
Keep up the good work Ursula von der Leyen.
Seems you love recession.
Average working American just got a Pay hike.
Lower interest rates and lower energy costs means more money in pocket and less need to use Credit card to survive.
It is not always about top 2% getting everything.
In this way my children who are not multi millionaires get some relief in their Family finances.
That is winning big time in my book.
My World is better.
“Lower interest rates and lower energy costs means more money in pocket and less need to use Credit card to survive.”
Just wondering your thoughts on the effect for the US shale industry. Does not the longer this go on hasten the demise of US oil production.
Some are suggesting it was purposely done to crash the world due to $9 trillion in debt coming due. Thoughts? Layoffs look to be in the immediate horizon and bankruptcies if this last.
Today’s Oil Prices Aren’t Survivable For US Producers | OilPrice.com
” Brent crude was down 7.01% at 12:10 pm in New York, while WTI sank to $61.73—well below the breakeven point for many U.S. shale producers—$65 on average, according to the Dallas Fed’s latest survey.”
The cost of everything the average American needs is shooting up… Cars, appliances, groceries, electronics, all skyrocketing. Tourist areas are reporting double digit drops in reservations and skyrocketing cancellations. Job losses are just beginning to percolate through the economy, spreading out from government contractors and those in industries most immediately affected by tariffs. No one wants to risk spending in this economy. That’s a perfect recipe for recession.
Which job collapse are you referring to caused by Trump.
NFP was just reported Friday and it was better then expected at 228k
private NFP was at 209k better then expected.
Manufacturing was at 1k which remains a holdover from Bidens destruction of US manufacturing via his energy and regulatory stance.
Tariffs as a tool was part of Trumps campaign so Business has had plenty of time to prepare for implementation. People are still getting hired and Business is still creating Jobs.
Don’t worry about Germany, I would concern yourself with Trump – he really is making America GRATE.
It’s sure grating with me.
An idiot I didn’t even vote for is destroying my wealth from 3k miles away.
Wealth? You mean all that crap stuffed in your 401K?? That ‘money’ has been NOTIONAL all along. It’s not wealth until you SELL and turn it into real-world tangible assets.
This is the exact thinking that’s gotten us into this fiscal mess in the first place. Time for a major deflationary flush to make the math in this world’s economy to make sense again so rational people can make productive business decisions.
Sheesh.
I’m guessing you are sad that pensions disappeared. Followed then by Americans being encouraged to invest in the stock market as a good substitute. Also, right wingers want to invest social security money in the stock market. All I see is a disaster all the way down for people planning their retirement on the right wing watch.
Work until we die on the job. The slave mentality of the American conservative…seriously f**k you cannibles!
Cannibals*
No crap in my SIPP, we don’t have 401k’s
I avoided overpriced US stock in the main and invested in companies that actually made stuff. I object to years of savings getting wiped out by your king. The US will pay a price for this long after Tramp is pushing up daisies. My annual US vacation cancelled for this year and the next and probably indefinitely. You can pay the welfare of the airline staff, hotel workers, restauranteurs etc,
I don’t worry about Germany at all.
They made their own Bed.
agreed.
You are correct
You invested in the US market because your own stock market’s performance in Europe sucks badly compared to that of the US and now you are complaining. You must be a difficult person to please.
No I didn’t. How did you infer that ????Trumps actions have dragged down European markets. I have avoided US stocks as they reached stratospheric valuations. Hopefully maga devotees 401k’s are getting crushed.
Aren’t you Brtitsh?
Yes, my name would tend to give it away, I had very little exposure , comparatively, to US stocks, the stocks held were all private equity through funds. I have heavy exposure to the UK market because its seriously undervalued, compared to the US.
My love affair with all things Americana since my teens, I am now in my 60’s, is now rapidly being eroded. I was in Illinois two weeks ago, most likely my last visit for some time. My vacationing days in the US are finished. However Trump/maga pans out. The damage has been done.
Trump is stupid but more importantly he is mentally ill.
“Energy down again which will do wonders for US vacationers doing a road trip this year within US.”
Are you saying you expect energy to stay down for the next 5 months? The shale industry is underwater. The shale companies have huge amts of debt and are losing money. The shale industries production was already set to fall off a cliff and has that been pulled forward. Once the industry falls, I dont expect it to come back with the debt involved.
The US is the worlds largest oil producer. Isnt it a no brainer production is likely to fall and not recover. Meanwhile the middle east is increasing production. Very odd, could that be to keep energy prices low and shut down the shale patch?
Meanwhile besides tens of thousands of job losses, oil company bankruptcies, the collateral damage then spreads to those countries who used the shale oil, namely Europe.
Thoughts?
Too much winning! When will it stop!?! S&P 500 3100 here we come!
“A few days ago someone asked me what Liberation Day meant. I said be prepared to be liberated from your money.”
Chuckle and truth of the day.
May you live in interesting times. Someone on another log equated Liberation day to an earthquake where theres an eerily silence after the initial quake. Then come the aftershocks, fires, etc and it takes some time to assess the damage.
Not sure of the collateral damage to come.
-Every US oil producer is now underwater at current prices
-Already insolvent pension funds hit even harder
-$9 trillion debt to be refinanced
-Agreement incapable government wanting to make agreements
-No brainer any CEO not willing to make any investments in current atmosphere
-Recession
-China 34$ tarriffs
-China restricting rare earths.
-Hit on reserve currency dollar longer term?
-Bank failure
-etc, etc, etc, etc, etc
No doubt there are a multitude of collateral events yet to come
Grab the popcorn.
Not a Black Swan.
40 years of chickens coming home to roost.
Everybody was free to sell all their stock every trading day of this new year 2025 if they chose to. If they chose not to and lost money in this selloff, they have no one to blame but themselves. The only way “Liberation Day” could be correctly referred to as “liberated from your money” would be if people were prohibited from selling (or buying) whenever they wanted to. Otherwise, you liberated yourself from your money.
This is not entirely true. Many 401Ks have poor choices, so “getting out” is not always a viable option. Anyone with a pension or annuity is at the mercy of the pension or insurance company’s investment policies and outcomes.
For that matter, someone has to own every share of stock out there at every point in time. The shares don’t magically appear and disappear when you buy or sell them.
yeah you’re right, but I worked for a place with a 401K. In 2022 people were complaining. They asked me how much I was down. I said I had it in something that doesn’t go up or down. Putnam something. Anyway, they had a fair number of choices of funds. There was ONE that was like t bills. I had to show my coworkers which one it was.
Exactly. Gonna be a lot of people belatedly figuring out the reason why their 401K has a short-term bond, stable value or insurance-contract fund. The ones that somehow never get advertised by the “target retirement” marketers.
We had a bear markets in 2022 and 2020. Some people seem to have forgotten that the market goes up and down.
Of course we did, those were Trump years also
Not 2022!
And not 2020, really. Unless you want to credit whoever loosed the damn virus.
yes because this is what winning looks like. Winning economic policy ALWAYS starts off with a massive selloff and ruination of the global economy.
the “burn in all down: idiots are about to learn that this may be a cool lsogan but burning things down isn’t really good policy and helps no one.
Trump can say that he destroyed over $10 trillion of net worth in the shortest time possible than any other US president in history and brags about it.
Have Zillow re-value each stock price. Problem solved.
Trump is panic now. Lets listen what he is going to say.
For the orange menace, winning is winning and losing is winning. How can you argue with that? And his minions see winning everywhere. It’s a great feed back loop they have going on there.
He is going to say it is someone else’s fault, maybe Biden maybe you. He is mentally ill, why can’t you understand this?
Also he will be the winner of creating recession in shortest possible time from strong
economy.
The US and world are concluding a 32 of 33 year self-organizing 2nd fractal starting in 1994 and part of a SPX 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series. The 1982 series is an interpolated fractal series of a larger US 1807 36/90/90/54 to 57 year :: x /2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 to 2077. The 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series is directly proportionally and fractally analogous to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with the DJIA peaking 3 Sept 1929 and nadiring on 8 July 1932. The 2025 SPX peak was on 19 Feb 2025. The current expected low is in May 2026.
The gapped lower low nonlinearity characterizing the terminal portion of 2nd fractals (32 of 33 years) can currently be observed in the daily charts of the French composite equity CAC (Fr:Px1). Because of European stock holiday differences vice the US SPX, the CAC is following a 4-phase 3 Feb 2025 8/20/19 of 20/12-13 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x terminal growth and crash decay fractal series with an intraday peak valuation on 3 March 2025, day 14 of the 20-day 2nd fractal.
Recently announced tariffs and the fracturing of 80 year-old alliances have grossly accentuated the asset-debt macroeconomic system’s self-assembly, naturally occurring 32-33 year nonlinear collapse.
Do you have a cliff note version of that totally confusing statement
How the Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system works.
The end summation product of debt expansion and asset production rests in the system’s hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly ongoing time-based composite asset equity and commodity and tradable debt (as an asset)values. Composite equities, et.al. have both absolute and intermediate peak valuations and nadir valuations. There is time-unit fractal self-similarity looking at smaller and larger time periods. Nearly everyone has observed cyclical patterns.
Does the asset-debt system self-order/self assemble these patterns in a very specific manner, i.e., is the process deterministic? The answer appears to be yes.
Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:
a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x
Better, thanks,. Do these calculations indicate what the corrective time period is. BTW is this from Mandelbrot? I have his book but not read it yet. Hedgeye Research uses this in their advisory service.
Read Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets.
Then realize that the theory, like many others, stopped working after it was published, because people like Hedgeye started using it.
We need sound money, a balanced budget and vastly smaller government. Sadly, we won’t get even one of those. Hang on, this has been brewing since 1971.
Calling these tariffs “reciprocal” is silly. The tariff formula that Trump is using still reeks from the orifice it was pulled from.
Trump can’t complain about the 34% tariff China just put on American goods if the 34% tariff he put on China was truly reciprocal. If Trump’s 34% tariff on China was truly reciprocal, then according to Donald Trump, China’s tariff rate on American goods was 34% the whole time already.
The most believable explanation so far is that they used ChatGPT to come up with the numbers.
The joke is on the Usonian consumer who will make up for the trade deficit by paying the tariff tax.
Can the stock market go up next week: yes. Can QQQ go up for two months: yes.
Can the Dow reach: 49K/50K: yes !
give me reds !
You sound like Hawk Harrelson, dad gumit!
For those who were not around for the Tech Bubble pop or the financial crisis, well, this may just be getting started. As of now, its a wobble, but since hysteria has now become the new norm we’ll see. Welcome to the party Pal.
Right, the nasdaq fell 77% but it only took 15 years to recover.
DUDE! Give the man’s policies some time to work. This is a marathon, not a sprint and wether we all like it or not, every American is now a soldier in a trade war that we MUST win.
riiiight, because winning policies always start off with a stock market meltdown.
it’s incoprehensble how anyone can defend this. the only time thi sort of thing hapepend, it was a new pandemic, financial crisis or 9/11.
no one has ever burned down the US and global economies on purpose like this. and if you think this will work and this is just an overreaction by idiots who dont’ know better you are delusional.
the market is crashing because a lot of smart people know this is stupid.
Well, you’re half right. This IS the biggest economic disruption since WW2, and it’s not a joking matter. This has never been done by a president because it’s risky. People that don’t want that risk like current or soon to be retirees don’t want this risk. They are pulling out.
That doesn’t eliminate the mathematical and economic fact that this is the biggest economic gamble in modern history. If it works it will be amazing so we’re all at the point now we better pray 🙏🏻 it works. There is literally no other choice from now, past the point of no return.
What won’t work is making widgets anywhere else and trying to sell them to Americans.
risky implies upside. What exactly is the “win’ here? what’s the reward to justify the risk? onshoring? can’t happen. that would take decades and trillions in investments, and all of that cost will be passed to consumers, require massive debt by companies who aren’t going to do something they feel forced to do, Trump will be 82 at end of term, and can die any minute from natural causes. Republicans probably will go along with this for another few weeks, tops.
And Trump already said he’s happy to negotiate tariffs. So, it’s not onshoring because that would require the tariffs stay on forever, and he’s already telling the world he wants more other countries to reduce theirs. So that would be a win, if it opens up markets a bit for us, except that it’s not worth trillions in losses, and the world hates us now. The US is toxic. Canada no longer needs tariffs on cheese (negotiated by Trump) because no canadian wants anything American. Ditto for China and Europe.
I think realistically this gets resolved n a few weeks, with Trump touting some massive del aht is in reality BS but which he can again sell to MAGA as the best deal ever. I am sure his family memebrs and frieds will get the word before the public on any sich deal so they can reverse their short positions.
The win is eventually onshoring, as we are a society in decline. Massive debt won’t do it anymore, we have no choice but to start pulling the cart ourselves. We have had it good for a long time but status quo is unsustainable. Even the most liberal economist will agree with that.
How do we make it sustainable? Culture change to get us back to legitimately being on top. Pain at some point was inevitable, always has been inevitable. It’s just a question of when, and how bad. What’s our choice? Later and very bad or now and not as bad as that.
Many are on record saying that if didn’t bail out the banks in 2008, we wouldn’t be in this position now because we would have come back stronger then organically. But here we are, $36T and the only question is how bad do we want it to hurt. Getting out of this is pooing to suck no matter who does it or how.
At least higher o shoring wages make existing debt cheaper via inflation.
how is onshoring going to resolve a debt problem? it will decrease consumption, and lower taxes, and lead to less production.
I don’t so much disagree with your recitation of the issues so much as I don’t see how massive tariffs, and trying to get the globalization genie back in the bottle, is a solution.
as for the public debt, tariffs could theoretically help but Trump wants to also have a massive tax break that will more than offset any tariff gains. And as Trump himself has said he is open to tariff deals, in other words there is zero chance tariffs will onshore because if other countries cut their tariffs, Trump will eliminate the ones he just announced.
we need to cut military budget. but Trump isn’t making a dent in that. he’s saving pennies by killing research programs etc… most defense spending is for personnel and base costs, not new weapons: the US has 750 military bases in 80 countries. that’s too many.
you cut public debt through decreased spending AND maintaining or raising taxes. that’s it. Trump wants to spend a little less but cut taxes a lot. the math simply doesn’t work.
if poeple really cared about getting hte public debt under control, they’d want to raise taxes on corporations. this is a no brainer that will never happen. Look at how many buybacks companies have done in the last decade, it’s becaue they had massive excess cash and nothing better to do with it. they shoudl have been taxed properly and then we woudn’t have these debt issues. we have the lowest corporate tax rate of any developed nation.
Military spending isn’t going anywhere.
$36T is nothing compared to how much debt we’re about to have after the Treasury gets a massive revenue reduction from all of these capital losses and the ensuing layoffs from these tariffs, not to mention Trumpybear saying he’s going to start yet another war we can’t finish for his overlord Netanyahu.
There’s a Trumpybear and not a Trumpybull for a reason, bro. This dude bankrupted three casinos, bro. CASINOS…
Following a madman (yes he’s mentally ill) doesn’t make much sense to me.
And now, by way of fixing this mess (from an investors’ perspective or a business operator’s), why would anyone re-shore production, with such a radically unreliable president? That is a huge long-term investment, with a guy who shifts his goal posts a few times every week. The odds are awful, from an expected value standpoint.
He’s been talking about tariffs since the 1980s.
President Trump is reliable and good for his word.
Let me suggest gently that you won’t find the answer by obsessing about every word. This is not about what they say, it’s about the macro environment and what the nation must do.
A lot of people have seen this coming. Production reshoring has been underway since 2018, accelerating since 2020 when China changed course. Investment in U.S. factory construction has been surging over those 7 years and still at all-time highs. Read WolfStreet for some recent articles.
if so then it should have let it to run its course naturally if it was happening anyway. not force it communism 101 style
Credit addiction is like a drug or alcohol addition. It’s also like gangrene or cancer. Letting it “run its course naturally” would be worse than getting treatment.
What’s wrong? Trump said he would liberate us. It’s just that he meant our 401ks.
So now we’re WAAAY back to May 2024 levels. Oh the pain.
Drop, drop, drop, drop!
Depends. The stated goal here is the renewal of main street. Bessent has said Wall Street would suffer.
Problem of course is on happens immediately while the other takes years
President Trump gets it completely wrong: His solution to helping “Main Street” prosper in an ever-changing world is to reengineer a successful economy to better fit a workforce that did not heed all of the warnings given to it over the last 50 years. The better alternative is not to trash a strong and dynamic economy; instead, the better solution would be to invest heavily in retraining the workforce. Imagine what would have happened had the industrial revolution Presidents of the early 1900s blown up the industrial economy to help those who lost their family farms for lack of workers who moved to the cities to work for industrial companies, including those that manufactured mechanized farm equipment. I am writing this as someone whose great-great-grandfather shut down his horse-drawn farm wagon business in 1921, which he had founded in the 1880s.
The critical mass that you’re forgetting, is that our economy was built on an additional $23 trillion of debt the last 10 years. Your traditional solutions assume a strong organic foundation which we do not have. All we have is a giant IOU to deal with.
not endorsing this but all debts can be defaulted. argentina does it every 20 years. the real problem is the department of war and the MICC and the idea we can rule the 7 seas and all continents……….and tell people who they can trade with……..cut out the empire building and the country will flourish.
Eliminating the Education Department and removing teachers unions from the schools with education vouchers is all it takes to train the workforce.
Our K-12 schools do not prepare workers for jobs in the 21st century. K-12 should provide a basic foundation of learning upon which trade schools and colleges build to prepare a student for a particular career.
Too much screen time destroyed our attention span, starting with the first TVs.