I just crunched the PA math, but the race was just called before I hit submit. However, AZ and NV likely Democrat.
Here’s my math, now obsolete as the race was just called.
On Twitter last night I called Pennsylvania likely Republican, Nevada a tossup and Arizona highly likely Democrat.
I now have Democrats winning both Nevada and Arizona. I will update this post with charts when I have them.
The election was great, if you were Republican.
Nevada Senate Race
Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture
In case you missed it, please see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture
There is massive Democrat soul searching yesterday and today. Hardly anyone will get it right. This is despite huge evidence all year long.
Perhaps, by PA D-Casey not conceding – leaving 53 republican senators, he can join neo-cons R-Thune and R-Cornyn, along with pseudo-Republicans R-Collins, and R-Murkowski, along with other 46 democratic senators to block MAGA-preferred FL R-Scott from becoming senate majority leader…?
I tune-in to a small group of local progressives, one of whom canvassed in Wisconsin and Michigan. They think this election like many before it was a victory for white supremacy, and came down to race, skin color and gender. Harris didn’t separate herself enough from Biden, the middle east conflict divided some voters who would have otherwise all voted democrat, and some of the suburban and rural women in Wisconsin were lying through their teeth when asked who they would vote for. They mentioned the lower vote count as compared to 2020, but they didn’t know enough about it yet to draw conclusions.
You have to have a soul to search it – tough in the case of the Democrat leadership, Hollywood, and left leaning media.
An Amish farm was raided because it wasn’t complying with government agency dictates, which motivated Amish to register to vote and participate in favor of Trump.
Democrat soul searching seems to be coming down to blaming Biden for dropping out of the race too late and blaming Hispanics and black men for not voting their skin color.
Leftist AG’s Letitia James and Rob Bonta were being very defiant in comments yesterday. Maybe Bonta should pay attention to L.A. County voters, who overwhelmingly threw Soros D.A. Gascon out of office.
The election was great, if you were American.
Donald Trump, perpetually suntanned and scowling, has every reason to be glad in his heart now that he’s won. He gets 4 more years as king of the sandcastle, while the waves of history come marching in, challenging his domain. Despite the best efforts of the mass media to undermine him, Trump was able to take his message to the people and get a successful resonance that the Dems couldn’t throttle.
The political arena that currently dominates has been a left-wing arena for many years now. It’s not surprising that the right wing has only won 2 of the past 8 elections on the popular vote. Parked on the interstate of history, blocking all the lanes to Sunshine Land, the Democratic tractor-trailer slants across the road, keeping joy & happiness from spreading.
This condition is to be expected, when your platform is drenched in misery and resentment. Say what you will about Reagan, his was a sunny optimism that won the day. Even Trump is more optimistic than the typical Democrat: he just believes that draconian measures have to be enacted to ensure the sunshine arrives on time. Given Trump’s political ability, that is a distinct possibility: more sunshine, please!
You can read more of my writings by going to: dark-dot-sport-dot-blog where -dot- represents a period .
In PA : automatic recount under 0.50% margin. The recount have to be done by Nov 26. That’s the law.
That’s pretty common. But I’ve never seen a recount shift the results by more than 0.1%
Currently with over 95% of the vote counted the margin is 0.5% with a 35K vote difference. PA will likely stick as a GOP win.
The modern Democrats unholy alliance with big tech, big pharma, the military industrial complex, and Wall Street combined with their brand of authoritarian progressive politics with an overall desire to push their new world order on everyone probably had a bit to do with it. Meanwhile the border is porous, the rust belt is rusting, and inflated prices are not being rolled back
I don’t care if the Demoncrats are “soul searching”. I don’t care to ever hear from any of their so-called “leaders” or “experts” or polls. I hope they lose every freaking election from now till Jesus comes back. It was and is nothing but a lie, which means they are all liars, especially the MSM, Wa Post, NYT. And Schumer and Pelosi. God, if I never see either of those two degenerates again, I’ll be smiling all day.
First you need a soul to search. I doubt if some have one.
A woman who voted for Willie Brown’s ho is only good for one thing.
Meh…who cares about the election at this point? I’m selling IWM January $260 calls now because the market blew right through my $230, $235 and soon $240 calls. Profits! Profits! Profits!
I’m going to bank as much profit now because I suspect it’s all going to fall apart next couple of years. I’ve sold off some more stock winners today. This rally is a sweet gift. Warren Buffett hasn’t been liquidating for giggles; he knows what’s coming. Hedge! Hedge! Hedge! …..$…..$
AZ Senate Race is TOO Close to Call – SEE:
ARIZONA 16-661. Automatic recount; requirements
A. A recount of the vote is required when the canvass of returns in a primary or general election shows that the margin between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes for a particular office, or between the number of votes cast for and against initiated or referred measures or proposals to amend the Constitution of Arizona, is less than or equal to one-half of one percent of the number of votes cast for both such candidates or on such measures or proposals.
The recount must be completed five days after the canvass of the vote is completed, which is Nov. 30.
It is not possible for a candidate, party or voters to request a recount in Arizona. (A Republican-aligned review of election results in Arizona’s Maricopa County in 2021 was NOT a state-run recount and found no evidence that changed the results in the county.)
The bulk of the outstanding votes in Arizona are from Pima County, where Lake is a 2-1 underdog. The margin will end up about 2% and it won’t end up being close enough to merit a recount.
The irony is that Gallego’s worst urban showing is in Phoenix… his home district. The people who know him don’t like him. The same is true for Lake, but the issue is that the entire state knows her from 2020.
Carville, a Louisiana native, also pointing to former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who joined the Biden administration.
He chagrined that ‘we had a lot of talent that we never got them in the playing field.’
‘The one distressing thing about this, we won the surrogate battle 95 to 5. We had two ex-presidents out there, we had every rock star, cultural icon, athlete you could imagine,’ he said.
‘We had a superior field operation, the canvassing, the door-to-door stuff,’ he continued.
‘They just stole every dollar, they did none of that. They were vulgar, crude, rude people. And we also raised more money,’ he said. ‘You look at all the intangible advantages we had, and it didn’t amount to anything.
Stupid Carville. His party is all identity politics. Biden felt compelled to promise a black woman VP, and instead of picking a reasonably moderate one – like former police chief and married mother Val Deming of Florida, he went with the childless leftist dipshit from San Fran – who had always underperformed compared to other Dems even in CA. Jim Clyburn made sure that when Biden was being forced off the ballot that Kamala had to be the choice or black women would revolt. So Dems were stuck with an unpopular dimwit.
Live by identity politics, die by identity politics.
If Biden felt the need to appoint a non white woman as VP he should have gone with Tulsi instead of a half Indian ho. But Tulsi was too moderate for the DEI crowd and too honest for the grifter crowd like Biden, Pelosi , Shumer etc.
Had Tulsi been VP in 2020 she would now be President elect by taking many of the moderate Republican and Independent votes. She could also have been President circa 2023 as Biden could of stepped down.
Now Tulsi is a Republican along with Elon and they will ensure the next Trump admin will have diversity.
Tulsi could even become VP to Vance in 4 years as the first woman VP selected on merit and not on who she gave blow jobs to.
I would much rather have a blowy from Tulsi, any day.
4D Chess: Democrats Admit Trump Actually Won In 2020 And Is Now Unable To Serve Third Term | Babylon Bee
LOL!
Just think, if the democrats let things play out in 2020 they would only have two more months of Trump. Now they have four more years! Glorious!!!
It’d be hilarious if it weren’t for the 500,000 dead Ukrainians courtesy of Sullivan and Blinken – the most maleficent foreign policy team ever.
IN 4D chess, Trump should get a do-over for his first term, given how the Democrats faked RussiaGate, impeachments etc etc.
Then, since 2020 was clearly stolen, Trump should get that by default. That is, Trump has the White House through 2032.
This leaves the 2024 win, which belongs to Vance, since Trump’s had two terms by 2032. So, Vance carries through to 2036, at which point there’s another Presidential election..
This should be enough for Democraps to go fully apoplectic and suicide in mass. Vance wins again.
You say it in jest, but some of them will be thinking about it… it’s funny ‘cos it’s true.
Democrats need to search their cold cold hearts to understand. So far on the mish board I’ve seen no change. They’ve lost the narrative and maybe a generation of voters.
Those doing the soul-searching are not doing it to a Mish audience. They are doing it with people they know, and on social media, etc. I am not saying they all or even enough of them are. I am sure that isn’t the case. But I am posting mainly to fellow libs in the hopes the lessons from this election are learned pronto.
The easiest example I’ll share here is a FB post I just made:
Dems ridiculed conservatives for their Trump vote intentions in 2016, and unwittingly helped Trump win.
Dems ridiculed conservatives for their Trump vote intentions in 2024, and unwittingly helped Trump win.
Dems ridicule conservatives for their _________ vote intentions in 2028, and will help _________ win.
Then I say that intelligent people can figure out how to fill in the blanks the same way I would, but will they? Right now, as a blue voter, I’d say they won’t in high enough volume.
Another angle: I felt Trump was an eminently beatable candidate. Perhaps partly or largely a miscalculation. Still ruminating on those details. But the DNC ran the worst campaign ever. Picking Biden, waiting so long to replace, then Harris and not picking the right VP. A litany of unforced errors, change one and the result of the election may have flipped. MAYBE.
It’s only part candidate. It’s your policies and woke bullshit
…and the economic mismanagement and homelessness
…and the illegal mass immigration and increased crime
…and the excessive taxpayer-and-debt money to foreign wars
…and the censorship and propaganda media
…and the endless hoaxes and lawfare
…and the attempt to rig elections and to passive-aggressively accuse the opposition of all the things they were doing
…and the list goes on…
The fact that people like Carville are feigning suprise tells you everything… this guy should know that the economy is crap for the voters who matter
but in the bigger picture this is a giant war of the sexes, and toxic femininity and the matriarchy has finally been overturned after a reign of terror that emerged with smartphones and the GFC,.
It will be good to look back 4 years from now and see how Trump has fixed all of this. I will keep a copy of this post for that future comparison.
Exactly, I talk to lots of conservatives in person. I’m asking them what they want and expect from this Trump admin, and you can be sure I’ll come back with receipts and tomes of facts in four years. Not that any of them will care.
We never know the darkness before the dawn until dawn. It’s gonna get uglier still before it gets better.
Democrats will fight like hell to keep things from being fixed.
Isn’t “fixed” a relative term?
Most stakeholders in anything will generally be against change that reduces their stake in whatever we are referring to.
Yes, “ridiculing conservatives into voting how they want them to vote” is what you guys call woke. You can’t force people to adopt social changes that are not relevant to their lives, or causes they voluntarily adopt as their own, or even just as an ally. The left doesn’t understand that you can’t just press the pedal to the metal 100% of the time to get what you want. They overplayed their hand trying to force tolerance and inclusion on others.
I hardly even mentioned Harris as A cause, let alone THE cause. I mostly blamed the DNC for running a shit campaign, she was just one item on the list. The #1 reason for losing this time is not having learned the required lessons of the 2016 election.
You lost Dade county for the first time since 1988. You won New Jersey for fucksake by 5 after winning it by 16 last time. This is not some small problem with the democratic party. Blow it up. I respected Bernie Sanders more than the current bullshit out of the leadership. At least he owned his crazy.
While your analysis is mostly correct, you have not gone nearly far enough to enumerate the several ways that Dems lost this election. But the biggest reason to me, a staunch life-long conservative, is that the Dems/progressives have massively overplayed their hand on going woke/BLM/racism/sexism/etc. The Americans have gotten over being labeled as a bigot, xenophobe, sexist, etc., and simply don’t react the way the left would like them to anymore. It doesn’t produce the false guilt that libs hope it will. Most Americans don’t want a culture that is divided along racial, gender, religious, and political lines. They just want to be seen as Americans, full stop.
And finally, maybe you lefties should take a long hard look at your core ideology and realize that the policies it produces are awful too.
Well said
Great analysis. I strongly concur.
The Dems drank their own kool-aid …they live in a bubble, and they are surprised to find that most other people don’t live in their bubble.
They should know better, this already happened in 2016, and in the UK with Brexit, the whole establishment was similarly shocked to find out that most of the peasants don’t agree with the effete metrosexual nouveau leftist aristocracy.
Methinks the UK is going to have a similar reawakening in 2025.
In my lifetime, I have seen well-educated wealthy people shift from being a bulwark of the Republicans to the Democrats. One of the underlying themes of US politics now laid bare is that even as a purported billionaire, DJT is seen as more of an “every man” who is in touch with what everyday Americans and their struggles and needs. The Democrats were gaslighting people, saying the economy is strong and they shouldn’t complain. How does THAT go over with voters!? (Answer: now we know.) Every single fear and loathing post on social media I see about Trump being elected is from an educated white person. Rando: I admire someone like you who is willing to reassess their worldview because there are many who believe they are right and don’t see that the ground has shifted under their ivory tower.
The irony is that Trump is immensely wealthy and lives a life that most of his voters can never hope to achieve; but the difference is that he doesn’t treat them that way. The Dems with all their shrill cries, look down on the poor.
Personally, I’m with Mish. If the economy would have been better (no raging inflation, skyrocketing rents/insurance etc) then it might not have mattered at all that the Dem campaign was bad/poor.
For proof of this, look at everything up to the mid term elections in 2022. From the time Trump took office in 2016 with a majority in the Senate and House until the mid terms, the Dems won pretty much everything (2018 mid terms, 2020 election, 2022 mid terms). But stimmy money ran out at the end of 2022 and inflation started to run wild at the same time. That always gets put on the incumbent party and in the end probably decided the election more than anything else as voters making <100K a year switched from voting Democrat to Republican.
In 2026 and 2028, if things don’t improve, expect a switch back to Democrat.
It depends who that Democrat is, it might not be so clear-cut.
Back in 2020 I thought Biden would stay in until March of 23 then resign so Harris could be the calmly anointed successor and run as an incumbent for two full terms of her own.
Having proved his point, Trump could step gracefully down in 2027 on his 81st birthday and turn it over to Vance with the same strategy.
It wasn’t that great. We needed a larger majority in the Senate. MI. WI. AZ. NV. Are all in the suspect column. IMO.
The problem is that Murkowski is not a Republican. And Collins is unreliable. And there are at least two dozen RINOs, many of whom hate PDJT. And two of the three running to replace cocaine Mitch are just as corrupt as he is, without the clout.
It was a good night. Not a great night.
Lastly, the way the votes came out in certain places make no sense. But we can leave that for another day.
BTW. Much appreciate your election coverage. It’s been really accurate and very informative. So thank you.
Mandate
Mandate requires stronger majorities in House & Senate.
Truly extreme changes will not pass either one.
Establishment RINOs + DINOs will hold the more extreme proposals at bay for next 2 years. Only if they risk losing office in ‘26 will they come to heel.
I live in Florida and Florida statewide can get their votes counted in what 4-5 hours and Arizona with 1/3 the population has one county that continues to take days if not weeks to count their votes? Citizens have every right to suspect these elections.
I strongly concur.
If the Popular Vote for Trump holds, that may be one of the bigger impacts long term. It’s a mandate regime media cannot refute or argue with.
And it shows a majority of the population everywhere is rejecting re-formulated marxism, divisive identity politics, vile gender madness, lawfare, and the condescending tone the left has been spewing, all while grifting outrageously at taxpayer expense within the Imperial City.
Endless unwinnable proxy wars are on the Democrats now; and unaffordable empire building and MIC subsidies all have to be dismantled ASAP.
Term limits for every office, and a balanced budget amendment.
Fingers crossed more Originalist judges are appointed to restore and uphold the Constitution and end “judicial activism;” which is just a disgusting euphemism for undermining and subverting the Constitution.
A mandate despite all the efforts to thwart it.
Nope. don’t get too full of yourself.
All the popular vote shows is that people rejected a very poor Dem Presidential choice. Let this be a lesson for the clowns that ANOINTED Harris.
Hopefully, she will retire from politics and never run for office again.