Perhaps there is one more Democrat convention upswing, but it appears euphoria over Harris is fading. What’s going on? 
On August 14, Harris held a 56.7 percent to 42.7 percent edge over Trump. Harris lead is now down to 53.8 percent to 45.7 percent.
Silver Bulletin Comments
🕒 Last update: 12:30 p.m., Saturday, August 17: More polling than we’re used to on a Saturday. The big news is a set of four New York Times/Siena College polls in Sunbelt states, which show somewhat quirky results: Harris +5 in Arizona, Harris +2 in North Carolina, Trump +1 in Nevada and Trump +4 in Georgia. Separately, there’s a Trump +1 in Pennsylvania that came in after our deadline yesterday.
The state-by-state results are interesting, though. It’s good that the NYT is willing to publish results like these rather than herd or self-censor. And following them, the model now has Harris as slightly more likely to win North Carolina than Georgia, and slightly more likely to win Arizona than Nevada.
Demographic Patterns Start to Look ‘Normal’
The New York Times reports Harris Gains in Sun Belt as Demographic Patterns Start to Look ‘Normal’ That’s a free link.
This morning, the latest New York Times/Siena College polls find an essentially tied race among likely voters across the four key Sun Belt battleground states, with Vice President Harris narrowly ahead in North Carolina and Arizona, while Donald J. Trump has the edge in Georgia and Nevada:
Arizona: Harris 50, Trump 45
Georgia: Trump 50, Harris 46
Nevada: Trump 48, Harris 47
North Carolina: Harris 49, Trump 47
I wouldn’t dwell too much on the precise results by state. On their own, each state poll is relatively inexact and subject to lots of uncertainty. Instead, focus on the big picture: Across the four states, it’s a dead heat. And a dead heat in these four states is not great news for Mr. Trump, who may need to take all three of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona to win in November.
Ms. Harris has an 84-11 lead among Black voters in Georgia and North Carolina, the two battleground states where Black voters represent their largest share of the electorate.
Ms. Harris has taken the clear lead among young and Hispanic voters as well. Hispanic voters give her a 54-40 edge in Arizona and Nevada, the two swing states where Hispanic voters represent their largest share of the electorate, up from Mr. Biden’s narrow 47-43 lead in May. The story is similar among young voters (18 to 29), who give Ms. Harris a 55-39 lead across all four states.
It’s worth noting that Ms. Harris is still polling a bit beneath the 60-or-so percent of the vote that Democrats usually win among young and Hispanic voters in these states, even if it’s far better than where Mr. Biden stood in May. And even Ms. Harris’s edge among Black voters is still a tad lower than one would typically expect for a Democrat in these states.
One thing that’s not back to normal
One unusual feature of the polling this cycle is that Mr. Biden had been doing better among likely voters than the broader group of all registered voters.That’s still true here. Like Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris leads narrowly among voters who say they’re very likely to vote, but she trails by double digits among those who say they’re unlikely to vote.
Pooling all seven of our battleground state polls together, Ms. Harris leads by two points among those who are “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote, while Mr. Trump leads by 10 points among the rest.
There is much more in the above link for interested parties.
I expect to hear nonsense about NYT polling bias but there isn’t any. On the other side of the aisle, there is no polling bias for Fox News either.
There is polling bias for Rasmussen and many other pollsters, and Nate Silver adjusts for that.
Lack of bias does not mean guaranteed results. Both Nate Cohn at the NYT and Nate Silver are calling this a tossup despite the apparent lead of Harris.
I don’t trust the polls here.
Harris is still in a honeymoon period. If she does not have a convention bounce, that will be a very good sign for Trump.
Two Things Help Trump
- The Economy is Weakening
- Harris has a Bizarro economic plan
Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
Regarding point 1, please see Kamala Harris and Her Free Money, More Inflation Now Proposals (MIN)
I outline 14 economic points, all of which I disagree with. Many independents will look at that and cringe. And I did not even mention the border.
Dueling Self-Inflicted Wounds
Trump made zero effort to appeal to anyone but MAGA supporters, then Kamala followed suit.
Neither J.D. Vance nor Tim Walz is a good VP running mate.
I highly doubt we have seen the end of self-inflicted wounds from either of them.
Recession Underway
Regarding point 2, I believe we are in recession and the recession will strengthen. Recessions always hurt the incumbent party.
July 25, 2024: “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
August 2: Unemployment Rate Jumps, Jobs Rise Only 114,000 with More Negative Revisions
August 2: 2024: The McKelvey (Sahm) Unemployment Rate Recession Rule Just Triggered
August 15, 2024: Industrial Production Declines 0.6 Percent on Top of Big Negative Revisions
Will recession be strong enough and arrive fast enough for Trump?
The answer will depend on dueling foot-in-mouth disease by both candidates and whether Trump can act civil enough and pull off a couple good debates.
The country deserves much better but here we are.
Did you watch Trump’s ‘Economic Policy’ speech today? He’s circling the drain. He looks like a defeated man and he knows it. The people behind him looked like WTF is he saying?
“Harris held a 56.7 percent to 42.7 percent edge”. 48% will vote D no matter who is at top, 46% vote R. Always playing with 3% to 4% max.
So Harris wins by 14% – mark as propaganda.
Election is made personal for analysts and policy approach differences gets shifted to the back round oblivion.
That being the case, here is something personal that people are asking. Remember when Vaccine mandates became mandatory.
Analysts would like that subject forgotten about.
Well it appears that people are dying untimely deaths and guess what?
The subject arises as to Vaccines questioned as to being the source of those untimely deaths.
This happening now and people asking those questions also voted for current Biden Harris regime.
There are more democrats who got vaxed than Republicans.
Yes I know several. They now wished they had not listened.
It has been very painful for them as they watch loved ones pass.
Unfortunately this is true Life and I believe is going to be a Game changer as they have lost their innocence regarding what Government is actually all about.
Which is about Power and not about serving the people.
I will add when they also recognize what the Administrative State has done to them with all its’ arrogance and elitism, there will be backlash which cuts across all Gender, Races, and political spectrum’s.
The understatement of the Year award goes to… “Harris has Peaked”
Harris Peaked last time around, at 1% I think it was, and promptly left the scene… This time she peaked at 1% once again, but the lame street media quickly stepped in, and distorted it to whatever make believe % they thought sounded good. Then of course they “jumped the shark” and made her out to be Obama 2.0.
It didn’t take long after that to realize the game was rigged again. They didn’t even wait for ballot harvesting, and machine break downs (wink,wink) this election? We haven’t even started mail ins yet have we? Like some would say, Propaganda waits for nobody…
What a joke Biden and The Biden Family turned out to be. A broken down Fossil, with a sex and drug addicted son, and thief’s amongst them as far as you can count back the lineage… Sad really that Our Countries Citizens we’re so easily duped by a lying geezer and his fake, phony, fraud of a Dr, wife. A Pathetic Bunch of Characters are they not? What country, other than perhaps Cuba & Venezuela, would desire a Family such as this, controlling Your Country? I would have to surmise the Super Majority Would NOT!!! Go figure…
Never underestimate the ability of voters to fall for the fallacy of repetition..
This will go down to election day and likely after. The most likely scenario is some type of case goes to the Supreme Court that puts Trump back in office. The instability of everything will continue until 2033 when the economic cycle that started in 2016 ends. Harris will have to sweep every swing state to avoid this scenario which doesn’t look likely. I’m looking at Trump electors in Georgia who decide what votes to count and whether to certify or not. Likewise in Pennsylvania as well. The winner is going to regret winning come 2025 b/c they will blamed for the coming debt crisis that by mid 2025 that cause a depression. The US will not escape much longer with the debt levels with what they are no consequences. The next president will not have to deal with this but the economic consequences. The court has sided with him at nearly every turn and the immunity granted to him for official acts was the opening act of putting him back into power possibly permanently.
Whites are going to take back power in the US and never give it back if Trump gets back in power. I have told my family not to be shocked at anything if Trump gets back power including revoking the citizenship of anyone that came to US and went through the process of naturalization. One of the requirements is to “be of good moral character” and this is completely subjective. Anyone found to have broken a law after gaining citizenship through naturalization can likely have it revoked later on due to loopholes which were used in the previous Trump administration to revoke immigrant visas. This time they will go a step further with project 2025. The Supreme Court is preparing to put Trump back into office to restore what they see as the rightful ownership of the country by white people.
You should change your nick into ‘Delusional Observer’. Would be more fitting.
– This will go down to election day and likely after. > Doesn’t every election?
– The most likely scenario is some type of case goes to the Supreme Court that puts Trump back in office. > Hmm.. I had not realized that our “SJC Elected Presidents. I must have missed that in Politics-101?
– The instability of everything will continue until 2033 when the economic cycle that started in 2016 ends. > Damn, our economic cycles have actual “Time Stamps” I had not realized this. We must get the word out, as this will save the Stock Market Forever!!! So they are at 17 years, man I would have guessed longer, but hey facts are fac… never mind.
– The winner is going to regret winning come 2025. – Yeah, I suppose you could be right, but I don’t know… I have always thought Winning WAS THE POINT!
– Putting him back into power possibly permanently. > Yeah OK, Whatever, Wow…
– Whites are going to take back power in the US and never give it back if Trump gets back in power. > Do YOU think everyone agrees with You? Asking for a Friend.
– I have told my family not to be shockeif Trump gets back power including revoking the citizenship of anyone that came to US and went through the process of naturalization.> I hope your Family listened to You. Families should stick together, as it keeps the gene pool together, and able to keep track of, or so I have heard…
– With project 2025. > You do realize that is a Made Up Scam by Democrats, I do hope…
– The Supreme Court is preparing to put Trump back into office to restore what they see as the rightful ownership of the country by white people. > Wow, you need to speak to someone, and fast. I hope when you awake, you feel much better about things…
This is what I like to see; divergent thinking. It’s a pity the facts do not support the narrative.
After you post things, do you just stare at the logo from Breaking Bad.
$100 million dollars says the favorable polling won’t stop.
The polls are heavily left leaning. What person working and trying to get s%$# done is answering a poll? That would be people not trying to get s^%$ done and people that have a lot of free time on their hands.
I learned this in college earning extra credit working a poll. Only people sitting around on their ass and old people answered. Everyone else hung up on me.
If you don’t believe this then go work a poll and find out for yourself. You will not do this if you are left leaning, just argue with me about what I know as fact and complain about whatever BS you do not have because of your own BS.
Another Reason Why Polling is So Bad
August 15, 2024 9:02am
Barry Ritholtz
https://ritholtz.com/2024/08/another-reason-why-polling-is-so-bad/
If you look at that list, the things that Americans over estimate are almost exactly what the Media over reports in the news / advertisements etc.
Its essentially the media bias.
KGB
Harris real attraction is that she isn’t Trump.
Had the Republican’s chosen a “normal” candidate to represent them, such as Haley, instead of loose canon, stream of consciousness Trump, they would have had a lock on the election.
Now we’re in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t election.
Haley is not a normal candidate.
She’s another Indian woman warmonger trying to pretend not to be.
What’s wrong with warmongering? Do you know how many people depend on the MIC for steady work, for paying their mortgages, for raising their families, for virtually everything?
Let’s put you and your family on the 6th floor of a concrete building in Gaza and see how great you think the pointless wars are then. I really hope you were kidding.
I wasn’t kidding. How dumb can YOU and a few others of your pacifist ilk believe that you wield any power to stop the MIC that, in the USA alone, receives almost $1 TRILLION each and every year to spend on weapons and warfare?
Is there ever any serious movement in Congress to reduce the money the MIC get? The answer is a resounding NO!
WHY NOT?
Because a lot of people depend on work provided through the MIC and many in Congress get very nice campaign donations from the MIC.
As to Gaza, no one with real power gives a crap about Gaza and the Palestinians killed there. Hamas could have ended the war 10 months ago by simply releasing the hostage’s they took and surrendering. The continue to refuse to do this, showing that they are willing to fight to the last Palestinian.
The Eternal War, Ghost in the Shell SAC2045, discusses this concept following a global economic collapse. Worth a watch if you like anime or exploring the consequences of AI engineering..
Republicans are tired of do-nothing RINO candidates and have decided that they can live with the eccentricities and personal shortcomings of DJT if it means undoing decades worth of damage. Trump fulfilled a lot of promises in his first term and that was with both hands and a leg tied behind his back. Many of his latest economic ideas are quite terrible/terrifying, but “Kamala’s” are far worse.
You are delusional! Here’s a list of some of the major promises that Trump made in 2016 that he failed to deliver on.
I posed Perplexity.ai the following question:
Q. What promises that Trump made in 2016 if he became president did he fail to deliver on by the end of his term as president?
A. During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump made several promises that he did not fulfill by the end of his term. Some of the notable promises that went unmet include:
1. **Repealing and Replacing Obamacare**: Trump promised to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). While the individual mandate was effectively eliminated, the broader law remained largely intact[2][3].
2. **Building the Wall and Making Mexico Pay for It**: Trump pledged to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and have Mexico pay for it. Although some construction occurred, Mexico did not pay for the wall, and the project was not completed as initially promised[3][5].
3. **Eliminating the National Debt**: Trump vowed to eliminate the national debt in eight years. Instead, the national debt increased significantly during his presidency, reaching $26.9 trillion by September 2020[2].
4. **Reviving U.S. Manufacturing**: Trump aimed to revive U.S. manufacturing, but by the end of his term, manufacturing employment had decreased, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic[2].
5. **Lobbying Ban**: Trump promised a five-year ban on lobbying for former executive branch officials. Although an executive order was signed, it contained loopholes, and the order was revoked at the end of his term[2].
6. **Creating 25 Million Jobs**: Trump promised to create 25 million jobs and be the greatest jobs president. This goal was not achieved, and the pandemic further impacted employment figures[3].
7. **Raising the Federal Minimum Wage**: Trump initially supported raising the federal minimum wage to $10 per hour, but this did not occur during his presidency[3].
8. **Ending Birthright Citizenship**: Trump pledged to end birthright citizenship, but this policy was not changed[3].
These unfulfilled promises highlight the challenges and complexities of governance, as well as the impact of unforeseen events such as the COVID-19 pandemic on policy implementation.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-promises-that-trump-made-3tFHfLurRre6FF_LZlI50w#0
I’ll await YOUR list of Trump promises that you referred to above [lol]
Agree. There are no good choices here. There are only the lesser of two evils.
Anyone betting on Comrade Kamala? I am also offering such bettors a great investment in a time share condo in glorious Malabo.
does it come with a bridge? I was promised a bridge, something of the brooklyn variety. its gotta be big and impressive.
so does it come a bridge or what?
I am afraid that Kamala will win. To qualify that I would like to say that I have predicted wrongly the outcome of every presidential election since Bush senior.
speaking of Bush Senor, Bush Jr’s oil company was named Arbusto, which is Spanish for Bush. best of luck on your continued speculation on the presidential winner, just remember no matter who wins, the people almost always lose. its not a flaw, its a feature..
Yeah, but the emerging consensus is that Trump will do less damage to the economy than any Democrat.
But eventually something catastrophic will go wrong that craters the economy. The last 3 economic crashes were all under Republican Presidents b/c they neglected the risks:
1) GWB ignores Presidential Daily Briefing on August 3, 2001 which says “Attacks are imminent on the United States”
2) After nearly a decade of derivatives deregulation by the Fed and Congress, the economy crashes in 2008 necessitating the largest bailouts in US history
3) Trump throws out the pandemic playbook in 2017 and empties out the emergency supplies for the US government and military.
I don’t know what will happen when the next Republican gets into office but I can almost guarantee it will end in unmitigated disaster for the economy b/c of one or more wrong moves directly by the Republican president.
I think democratic history has borne out your conclusions..
MY FRIEND KEEP PICKING KSCUMULA!
President Harris…. puking up my breakfast… The possibility makes RFK a stronger contender, and increases the probability of an assassination attempt before November
There has been no new French government, Macron is governing like a king. Did he lose elections or did he win? Melenchon is now talking about impeachment but that means colaboration with Le Pen who is an enemy of his voters (in their minds) and his ungovernable coaltion. Macron has won and France has lost.
you may have made a wrong turn at the english channel, suggest french politics like their cooking usually involves stewing in their own juices for a prolonged period. How bout those Dodgers? Pennant this year??
Harris will not implement her economic plan. The plan is just a toy to attract voters who believe in fair economy, in fair opportunity, in more social support, whatever. Every year in WH is good for Dems, every trick is allowed. Trump has no plan either (additional tariffs on all Chinese goods is outright stupid and everybody who goes shopping knows that). Harris is going to win.
I want let you all in on a secret. You know the economic plans from Trump and Harris—tariffs, price gouging, no tax on tips, 3 million new houses, etc.?
None of it is going to happen. It’s just empty, meaningless campaign talk.
Now you know.
Tariffs are happening now. Started by Trump, continued by Biden. Opposed by Wall Street. Biden does seem to prefer sanctions, which are just another form of protectionism in the guise of punishing “bad” countries. Both tariffs and sanctions are inflationary. If Trump is elected, I expect tariffs will go up again, more than they would under Kamala. Would Trump continue Biden’s sanctions against Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and China (as Kamala undoubtedly would)? Or do deals for peace?
Trump might do deals if only because the BRICS are coming. I suspect Kamala doesn’t even know what “BRICS” means….
Tariffs are necessary to rebuild our domestic manufacturing and distribution. The effects are cheaper than a world war again. We need to regain the knowledge and the pride of being self sufficient.
The lost empty lives of the young are proof of the damage off shoring did to our own people, let alone the destruction of fly over country, to the benefit of the coasts. Economic security needs to be available to all willing to work for it, not just the import/export businesses of the coastal ports and the MIC supported Silicon Valley.
A house needs many points of support to be strong, to have a hollowed out economy is to live in a house supported by only 2 pillars war and Silicon Valley.
None of them can make much of a dent in the recession, which may be the mother of all recessions.
The 3 million new homes promise would be easy to beat. That number is already much slower than the rate that homes are built with no input from the government.
If the riots are bad at the DNC and Kamala handles it poorly the love affair could end rather abruptly.
Interesting article in the Hill about Lena Kahn. Kamala and Trump have been avoiding discussing Kahn and to a lesser extent Kanter not wanting to lose voters or lose big tech campaign money. Stopping monopolies from occurring is feature of a well regulated capitalist economy. Reid Hoffman made an ass out of himself in an interview on CNN he has since tried to walk back. He essentially threatened withdrawing financial support if he did not get a commitment from Kamala to fire Lena Kahn.
it doesn’t matter if the riots are not televised, they will be mostly peaceful riots with mostly equal fires and looting, and will not be noticed or cared about unless the ministry of propaganda dessimenates the “information” to the apathetic masses more interested in whatever they clicked on last, than anything happening in the real world.
Agree it’s a coin toss at this point. But it looks like Trump’s “Old Fart” problem will keep dragging him down. Plus his mental issues seem to go from bad to worse. Latest example: Telling Americans that it is more honorable to contribute to his campaign than to die for the country. Interestingly enough, the audience applauded!
Which country was he referring to? Not since 1812.
You also believe our veterans & fallen soldiers are “suckers and losers”?
Albert, we all know you are really Kamala, although your more extensive vocabulary made it a bit difficult to suss out at first.
One relative died in Papau New Guinea in 1944 to preserve remnants of the British, French (including French Indochina) and Dutch Empires thanks to FDR.gfys,
But they didn’t resign to avoid combat like Tim Walz, and then pretend that they saw combat.
Trump has lots of combat experience involving STDs.
Kamala is an old fart too by the everyone under 50.
and oddly enough an old fart that sounds like it was made with a whopee cushion that won’t stop…
Not when you put her side by side with Trump … she looks about half his age. Most American voters hate the idea of a person in the Oval Office who should reside in an Assisted Living Community.
so how did Biden win?
Not as much as Kamala wrecking the economy whilst in power and campaigning to fix it, whilst in power.
Tim Walz and Kamala both have a “dumb and dumber Democrats” problem, plus Tim’s Bidenesque old fart mental problems.
I agree with those on this site who think that none of the populist stuff peddled by Harris or Trump will ever pass.
Yeah that’s what my ex-girlfriend from Venezuela said when Chavez was elected said.
They are a cult and like others they are impossible to understand for a normal sane person.
WHY would anyone care that I do not vote and would therefore vote this way or that? Are unlikely voters given any more voice or say over the lying, cheating and stealing that follows every eRection?
You voters are sold out; GARE-UN-TEED!
if you do not vote, why do you care enough to comment, isn’t there a football game on somewhere?
I vote every election but I also believe that if our votes counted we would not be allowed to vote by the PTB.
“The country deserves much better but here we are”
We’re here because we put ourselves here, so we do deserve it
we are all here because of the consequences of the past, which are in most regards out of our control. We cannot change the past, but how we react and our actions can help determine the sort of future we share.
Consider carefully and choose wisely, you will be heavily propagandized don’t rely on the usual suspects, because they are as always suspect.
Nope. It’s all YOUR fault!
“The country deserves much better but here we are.”
Trump mocked and beat all the Republican candidates for president in 2016. Goldman’s chosen one was JEB. At one rally he pleaded, “please applaud.” A group of business men chose George Bush Jr. to be their candidate in 2000. Name recognition. He got the nomination. Gore got the Democrat nomination, as he was Clinton’s VP. Name recognition & next in line. Kamala is next in line. It’s a pre-programmed game.
I posted a detailed but concise guide to reading the polls, and in spite of my best efforts it landed in Mish’s censorship filter. Oh well, I tried.
delete the pornhub links and try again..
Links were to Real Clear Politics and to Nate Silver’s pollster ratings, and repeats the historical link between U3 and November result. Misinterpretation is rampant as usual, and that post shows exactly how to separate the wheat from the chaff. As a so-called “double hater,” all I care about is decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty.
If Mish wants to remove it from his censorship filter, fine. If he doesn’t, well, it’s his blog and his decision. This blog is very useful for econometric data and interpretation (which I have written several times here), with the rest being whipped cream on dogshit
Or to put it differently, life is the process of picking the corn from the shit, and there’s some good corn here along with the rest. His move.
More than one link gets you sent to review.
ANY link to certain sites gets the same treatment.
If you are using a valid email address, you should get a notice when the post is released.
Editing a post with a link in it will also get you flagged and reviewed.
How do I know this? Because i have experienced all of these.
We shall see if he puts it up. I won’t melt if he doesn’t, but I will laugh.
Me too
I could rewrite it without the links, which weren’t clickable but were probably seen as links anyway by the censorship filter, but … nah, not worth it. This site is Mish’s baby, and if he doesn’t want the material to appear that’s his call to make.
A little strange and humorous given how useful and accurate it was, but the world is strange and humorous so why shouldn’t this blog be strange and humorous too? LOL
Most polls are rigged BS. Rasmussen is OK.
Bias or not, Rasmussen had Hillary in 16 but not by as much as other pollsters. In 20 they nailed the popular vote.
Their bias is producing better results
Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. I think Rasmussen becomes more accurate as an election approaches, but I could not find Rasmussen’s final prediction. In ’16, in the final week I predicted that she would win the popular vote by 2%. Won dinner for 4 on that one.
In June of ’16, I predicted that T would be elected. Won 4 grass fed steaks on that one. In ’20, I predicted that T would lose based on the U3 move in Q2. Made no bets that year.
Popular vote means nothing because it doesn’t elect anyone. So Republican presidential candidates don’t care or even try in California.
The popular vote doesn’t elect anyone, but 2016 was the first election since the 1800s when the clear winner of the popular vote didn’t also win the electoral college. It was truly an anomaly made possible by Hillary’s overconfidence at the end, when she decided to campaign in AZ rather than WI and MI. (Note: Gore won the popular vote in ’00 but by 0.5%, a statistical tie. Not a clear victory.)
I think the focus on the popular vote, which has been a very good proxy, is far from meaningless. But in a close election it can throw a headfake. These days, given the close divisions, the popular vote margin needs to be clear to be de facto determinative.
Trump exited the R convention with about a 6.5% lead, and now it’s down to about 0.3% as the result of his stunning political malpractice. Unless he can rebuild a lead outside the statistical margin of error then yeah, the popular vote might not be a good proxy. We shall see. And that’s not even considering the Black Swan, it being the very real possibiity that the NYC judge sends him to prison.
Kamala Harris is laughing like hyena before attacking Trump. The apprentice will face Shi, after Biden leaves a clean slate in the ME. We are hooked on Taiwan and rare earth minerals from China. China wants to reduce its population to 1.0B/800M, especially the useless elderly. If Kamala Harris wins China might raid Taiwan in the next few years. After WWIII the world will be divided by two. Can we finance WWIII after piling $35T in peace time ?
Not likely.
I’ve been thinking about:
US Federal Govt policies and laws impact on me at age 73
Negative:
Drug regulations make it a little more difficult to obtain drugs both medicinal and recreational purpose if I wanted them.
Laws against internet poker, damn them, I played for fun and profit. Laws against crimes I don’t want to commit have no impact on me but may have a positive impact if they stop others from committing a crime against me.
Positive:
Military veterans’ benefits, we bought four houses as residents, no money down and could still buy more.
Agencies like USDA that supposedly protect me from, manufacturers of products, drugs and food.
Agencies like US Forest Service and BLM that maintain and protect our wild lands and national parks for my use.
Infrastructure that allows me to travel across the US at their will.
Military that supposedly protects me from foreign enemies.
Law enforcement agencies that supposedly protect me from international and domestic criminals.
Laws against crimes that others may want to commit against me.
Medicare and Social Security have a major positive impact on my well-being.
State and local laws and regulations have a larger impact on my life and heaven forbid you live in a HOA controlled residence.
Everyone may have a different perspective on this subject, what do you think?
you have a faith in institutions that I find difficult to understand for a person your age. Have you been living with eyes closed. Just consider the VA or the FDA or CDC. have they made you life safer and better in the last 4 years? Then consider the CIA,NSA,DIA etc..
most of what you think you know is wrong. as the Firesign Theatre pointed out decades ago.
Military that protects you from foreign enemies. lol. Wow
You’re kidding, right?
Canada?
Questions for The Great Nate Silver:
1. How many losses will the White Sox have this season?
2. Will Pritzker have the State of Illinois build another new ballpark for Reinsdorf, after the latter threatens to move the team to Nashville? (Worked the first time in late ‘80s when it was Florida)
The White Sox will lose 118 games.
and yet somehow once again win the Stanley Cup….what a world..
“…I don’t trust the polls here…”
I don’t trust the media. About 3 months left–that’s plenty of time. The left cannot tolerate a Trump second term. He has nothing to lose.
Mish: I think you should investigate the remarkable demographic group discussed this week in “Unherd”; out of England I believe: the author referred to them as BOTS: Brides of the State. It turns out this largely unmarried and usually childless was the strongest supporter of Obama, Clinton, Biden, and now Harris.
remarkable reading
BOTS. !!
In other words…childless cat ladies.
they’re not ladies, at least not in the commonly recognized sort of way.
The advantage with cats when you are old and childless is that when you die the cats will take care of your corpse.
Meat is meat…
Solyent Green is people…
So will worms and maggots.
I think Trump will pull it out, only because Harris is so bad.
I think HARRIS will pull it out, only because Harris is so bad.
There, fixed it for ya!
I think your splitting hairs or harrises as the case may be.
Harris Krishna.
“Kamala Harris Has Peaked, Expect the Polls to Tighten Further”
Kamala Harris Has Peaked, Expect Trump’s Lead to Widen Further”
FTFY.
Let’s not forget Harris has declined to hold a press conference despite being named the DNC candidate AND selecting a VP running mate. Biden’s avoidance of the press is too recent for voters to forget something WAS being hidden from them. Once off the teleprompter, Harris will struggle as she has in the past.
it worked for Joe, its the only plan the DNC has at this point. The AI computer keeps putting black klan members in the videos so they can’t be released and Harris live has no filter or vocabulary, or charisma or ideas, but other than that, she’s the perfect candidate. Checks all the boxes for race,creed,color,ethnicity,age,gender, etc. all the things we aren’t supposed to consider in hiring someone, well she has them.
It sounds like a Farrelly brothers movie, but its our lives. will it end as a comedy or as tragedy?
Harris is currently restricted only to the teleprompter for one reason – The Dem PTB don’t want to give oxygen, prior to the convention, to those in the Dem party who want an open convention or a mini-primary, where Harris would have to prove she is the best choice.
If Harris is allowed to speak freely, she will almost certainly say things that will cause her coronation to be questioned during the convention.
Don’t believe the polls … people lie
I am lyin’ only when I say I say in an lyin’!
“I lie about everything and everything I say is a lie”.
I’m sorry. I can believe any polls, even ones that lean conservative which is the side I’m on. The MSM, Big Tech, far-left liberals & election officials have colluded to create a convergence of such enormous anti-conservative election engineering that I think Trump isn’t going to win.
While I’m no fan of his ad hominem attacks, narcissistic views of himself & exaggerations, I can pinch my nose and vote for him. A vote for Harris will be 2-3X a devastating as the Biden term will be. If Trump doesn’t win this time, a conservative may never sit in the WH.
One of the best examples of Jux position is that of it being reported that Harris supporters at recent events have to show ID to get into a rally, yet the Dems consistently vote against Voter ID laws which are supported by something like 75%+ of the population. There’s something very wrong with that and many other election related issues, including polling.
The clincher: Free coffee, weed, and all debts forgiven.
And all they ask for in return is your soul
and most of your paycheck….
Sigh. What everyone has to remember is that one, presidential campaign wannado’s are ethereal and prone to be immediately forgotten after the swearing in and two, candidates are not kings/queens and do not get to order most things to be done (“make it so!”). They have to get Congress to do most of the heavy lifting.
Which means whoever you choose to vote for President, you should straightline vote for the other party in Congressional races to hopefully act as a counter.
But of course, you then risk that you are wrong and the opposite of who think will be the President wins, possibly then giving the executive a lock on Congress.
And trannies get free abortions. Yahoo.