Consumers pulled out their credit cards in November. Let’s discuss the key numbers.
According to the Census Department Advance Estimate, retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023.
Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).
Retail trade sales were up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2024, and up 4.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 6.5 percent (±1.8 percent)
The key line above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.” These are nominal sales, not adjusted for inflation.
Month-Over-Month Nominal Details
- Retail Sales: +0.7%
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gasoline: +0.2%
- Motor Vehicles: +2.6%
- Food Stores: -0.2%
- Food Service: -0.4%
- Nonstore Merchants (e.g. Amazon): +1.8%
- Gas Stations: +0.1%
Motor vehicles and Nonstore sales account for all of the gain.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
Inflation-adjusted sales put things in proper perspective.
However, the last three months are undoubtedly hot at 0.9%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively.
This puts another spotlight on Fed rate cuts.
A Data Be Damned Fed Policy
Last month I said “Don’t be surprised if the Fed starts signaling no cut in December. Any additional strong data might do that.” What a hoot on myself.
The odds of a rate cut tomorrow are 95% with more rate cuts still priced in for January and March of 2025.
Of course, the bond market might be pricing in a recession or other economic weakness. Then again, if that was the case, yields on the long end would not be rising.
This is not a data dependent Fed. In fact, there has not been a data dependent Fed for decades.
The Fed announces an intent and sticks with it, data be damned, time and time again except for emergency rate cuts.
Motor Vehicle Sales
It’s important to note that motor vehicle sales are reported when cars are shipped to dealers, not when consumers actually buy them.
This makes it difficult to distinguish what’s going on. One possibility is channel stuffing. By that I mean manufacturers cramming more cars than people are buying down dealers’ throats.
A second possibility is a mad scramble by consumers to buy cars while they can still get a $7,500 EV tax credit.
For discussion of the latter, please see Trump Proposes Killing the $7,500 EV Credit and Seeks Tariffs on Battery Materials
Kiss Biden’s ridiculous energy policies goodbye. We won’t miss them.
How 10-year Treasury Yields Have Changed this Interest Rate Cut Cycle
For discussion of how bond yields are reacting this rate cutting cycles compared to other cycles, please see How 10-year Treasury Yields Have Changed this Interest Rate Cut Cycle
It looks like a quarterly tax filing that’s throwing the sales chart higher easy to explain.
I’d guess the motor vehicle number is due to channel stuffing by the auto mfrs.
Doubt people are buying cars, they’re not fixing the ones they have – crumpled fenders everywhere, no one wants to call the insurance co. Even starting to see rust again, lol.
I think everyone who wants an EV has bought one.
“ It’s important to note that motor vehicle sales are reported when cars are shipped to dealers, not when consumers actually buy them.”
Do you have a link to the details on this bit? I don’t doubt you, but I’d like to read the official explanation.
The more I read, the more I doubt it. I have the same question. The only detail I see is that MARTs includes NAIC 44-45 which seems like it would exclude sales by manufacturers to dealers.
@Mish any comment?
The Fed must get back to 0% and QE.
It is the only way to keep the lie known as the US Treasury afloat.
No doubt, the fed will ignore this stat.
Retail sales should be corrected for goods inflation, not inflation. Goods inflation and services inflation are often very different.
And adjusted for population growth. Real per capita is metric for rising or falling living standard…
I’ve personally pulled forward a LOT of purchases with more (and perpetually undercounted) inflation expected. I expect I’ve nearly completed that endeavor barring an emergency. Been very difficult to find products at a price point that is palatable but for all but a few transactions I’ve obtained items at their best price in quite some time. I did pull coffee into the mix at non-sale prices as that crop has been hit hard and coffee, like gasoline, makes the world, and me, go. I wanted to buy stocks but they are already heavily inflated 😉
Congratulations to the Biden administration for presiding over the best Economic growth of the 21st century, averaging over 3% per year. No one else even came close.
Real hourly earnings are negative over his Presidency. Nice lipstick on that pig. Number one issue was the economy and he was voted out. Bidenomics is a curse word in the democratic party. But nice effort
What illiterate economic hubris, but you already know that. You’ve been corrected on this falsehood previously on this site
But for those who want to know the statistical facts, today’s real earnings are the highest in US history (unless you want to go back to Trump’s COVID-time) ‘super’ earnings: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
I don’t believe they are specifically due to Biden. You can see from the graph they have generally increased since 1990. So welcome to America. But Midnight’s earnings claims here are rhetorical crap
Medians hide a lot of dispersion. If you break out the earnings among different groups, you find that some groups have had no real earnings growth over the past 6 years (pre-COVID). The overall decade-averaged slope has leveled off. People do have a reason to be grumpy about lack of improvement in quality of life.
He’s literally correct, but there is a distortion effect from low wage layoffs in 2020. The larger point that Biden presided over a period of poor wage performance is more or less accurate, and that is despite trillions in deficit spending. Normalized TOTAL wage growth is barely 1% for his term normalized to Q1 2020 as a baseline.
Economic growth based on presidential terms.
https://www.aeaweb.org/view-high-chart?id=6322
You funny man
On the one hand, those Rivians cost $100,000. On the other hand, powering them with electricity rather than gasoline may save thousand of dollars.
It sells 10,000 trucks in a good year, and falling. It can become an acquisition target, but who could possibly be interested.
As opposed to the Tesla Y which is the #4 best-selling vehicle in America right now, even higher ranked if you break the Ford F-Series into its component sales: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=dda_ga_rt_md_bm_prog_org_us_g60385784&gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIj9nilvmvigMVvUt_AB1UZQKPEAAYASAAEgLnxPD_BwE
Its been weird to hear these type of stats all year.
Because stores around here are very quiet.
Even during the Christmas season. They seemed a little busier this week. But nothing is busy or crowded.
There hasn’t been an onslaught of shoppers since before Covid that I’ve noticed.
I think a good many people, including rural folks, have migrated to online shopping.
Just good news for Mish who hates unions.
Woodside that was a response to you for below. Sorry in wrong spot
I know I have. Very little done out in-store.
On 12/16 Armstrong mentioned that “Redfin recently reported that 74% of Americans earning under $50,000 are seriously struggling to maintain consistent payments on their rent or mortgage.” Also, Armstrong said that “nearly, a quarter of Americans earning under $50,000 annually regularly skip meals and delay healthcare to cover the rent or mortgage.” Little wonder that real advance retail sales looks so flat.
President-elect Donald Trump said federal workers who don’t want to work in the office will be fired, despite a union deal to allow federal workers to continue to telework into 2029
He can do whatever he wants, there is no legal recourse once he takes office for anything he does. He could order you and I assassinated and pat himself on the back for a job well done, and our families would be screwed.
Waaaaaa. Tds. Waaaaa
What does this have to do with retail sales?
Do you have source for this? I’m seeing conflicting information, and I’m not getting the sources I’d like to see when I look at the Census website. I can’t say you are right, but I can’t say you’re wrong either. Either way, I’m curious and not sure what to think.
“It’s important to note that motor vehicle sales are reported when cars are shipped to dealers, not when consumers actually buy them.”
So no “official” recession under the current administration then? Does that mean recession hits during Trump’s term? Asking for a friend….
I haven’t been paying much attention to any of the economic data. I liquidated more stocks this week. I am concerned about possible radioactive devices on US soil about to go black swan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUAICf6nKgk
Then again, these drones are all over the planet from Brazil to US to UK so maybe it is aliens after all and that’s a super black swan that will roil markets.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Inflationary depression is ongoing. Thanks
“Depression”? Positive real economic growth since COVID? Estimated GDPNow real growth rate for 4th quarter 2024 at 3.1%
Bartender, I’m have whatever Midnight is having, please
ZH headline today: “Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs “Created” In Q2 Were Fake.” Bush Jr. inherited a recession from Clinton, which started before Bush Jr. could have any effect on the economy.
Hi Mish..I assume you use overall CPI, right? if so, is it appropriate to deflate nominal retail sales using overall CPI, since CPI includes services, which is most of the inflation is happening? Should you not deflate using goods CPI only?
Yes I used overall CPI. You suggest CPI Goods. There is a PPI for goods and one for services but no such construct on the CPI that I am aware of other than durable goods.
The Fed prefers a PCE deflator and that would lower the overall rate of inflation.
None of the measures are accurate because they all directly exclude housing.
Factor in there is an individual CPI for everyone, especially those looking to buy a first home, those in college, and those buying their own health insurance.
Many people (especially John Williams ShadowStats followers) suggest the CPI is dramatically understated. You imply overstated.
All in all, what I did is a reasonable representation without going through the process of creating my own index or indexes to do what you suggest.
My own calculations would probably not be any more accurate.
But yes, it’s a crude adjustment.
Can you still imagine what can be, unburdened by what has been?
Vehicles are probably a combo of channel stuffing to hit EOY numbers for the auto makers. Also a bit of EV credit expiring. And a lot of “businesses” buying a work vehicle for 2024 tax year write off.
Add in a healthy serving of doom spending that you always see around Christmas and you have the higher numbers. Credit limits be damned.
And perhaps a bit of hopium, things are going to get better spending after the election.
This where I’m confused. MARTS is the system of record and it only includes NAICS codes 44-45, which would exclude car manufacturers, so dealer stuffing shouldn’t be in this data series, but I’m not that familiar with where the exceptions might be on this or if autos would be one.
Did you read what Mish wrote?
Retail trade sales were up 4.1% from LAST November, and motor vehicles sales were up 6.5% from LAST year.
So unless business work vehicle sales or Christmas did not exist last year, these are INCREASES from the seasonal sales last year
It’s clear that this is a politically motivated Fed. And it is not on Trump’s side.
Powell was appointed by Trump.
Just folks divesting themselves of soon to be devalued dollars… many of them trump voters realizing he lied to them, repeatedly and at length.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Told the kids, no presents until Biden is out.
Your room at the rest home will feature a stunning view of the dumpster.
So how much was cash?
And how much was more debt – car loans & credit cards?
Asking for a friend.
need to see credit data – not out yet – but Amazon shopping will be on credit card
Amazon accepts debit cards and ACH payments via checking accounts.
True.And For those collecting Social Security that do not want automatic deposit to a single institution the Government has Comerica issue a debit card. Yet another hidden sweetheart deal if ever there was one.