Advance retail sales rose 0.3 percent beating expectations but the Census Department revised October from -0.1 percent to -0.2 percent effectively taking away some of the gain.
Advance Retail Sales
- Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent above November 2022.
- The September 2023 to October 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.1 percent to down 0.2 percent.
- Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent from October 2023.
- Amazon was the big winner with nonstore sales up 1.0 percent.
- Motor vehicles rose 0.5 percent and food store sales rose 0.2 percent.
- Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 0.2 percent so the UAW strike appears to be in play.
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The above chart shows real (inflation-adjusted) sales.
Advance Retail Sales Year-Over-Year
- Total sales for the September 2023 through November 2023 period were up 3.4 percent from the same period a year ago.
- Retail trade sales were up 3.1 percent above last year.
- Nonstore retailers were up 10.6 percent from last year
- Food services and drinking places were up 11.3 percent from November 2022.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Since 1992
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Percent Change From Year Ago
On a year-over-year basis, retail sales have been struggling but moved back into positive territory this month as the last two CPI reports were tame, at least on the surface.
Rent Jumps Another 0.5 Percent, Only a Decline in Gasoline Prevents a Hot CPI
The headline CPI looks tame in November, rising only 0.1 percent. But for the second month, a good headline number is an energy mirage.
For discussion of the allegedly tame CPI please see Rent Jumps Another 0.5 Percent, Only a Decline in Gasoline Prevents a Hot CPI
Rent, which is sticky, rose at least 0.4 percent for the 28th month.
Off topic vindication. I was accused of BS by Mr. Sherlock. However, I just have better sources… Here’s an article in Heretz, the Israeli news paper.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-12-13/ty-article-opinion/.premium/if-israel-used-a-procedure-against-its-citizens-we-need-to-talk-about-it-now/0000018c-6383-de43-affd-f783212e0000
Here’s an alternative link for those who don’t subscribe.
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley/israel-admits-immense-amount-friendly-fire-7-october
Heroic action of IDF troops on Oct. 7
https://youtu.be/GGEm6MN2Kr0?si=zb6Rh8fF7W8B6tVd
E-commerce is doing great, but AMZN is 40% below July 2021 top.
The economy appears to still be booming here in Colorado Springs; stores are full on the weekends and new houses keep being built at an astonishing pace. But this military and space town runs on government money and retired government employees; could be an anomaly. I just wonder if folks here already spent that big pay raise Congress is about to ink for military members and civil service employees?
,mil towns are all booming. With Washington borrowing 6% of GDP how can there be a recession?
This could and should be, the last positive retail report for quite sometime.
Fudging numbers is getting a lot harder now. Real numbers are chaotic compared to what’s been spoon fed, and especially of late. Hide and Seek is over, and time to play Pin The Tail On ?
My guess is Biden will take the hit, and if necessary, it could be a pretty big blow. He is a big enough target to be the “Fall Guy” and it’s not like they have to worry about any repercussions from him, or his family…
The sooner the better for his replacement, and their overall chances of holding it all down until they can recoup. Probably still are toast, but it’s the best chance available that I can see.
Don’t underestimate the manipulative nature of the establishment.
Given everything we’ve experienced over the last 4 years, I’m already convinced 2024 will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before.
I still cannot believe that everything is so corrupted, dishonest and seemingly falling apart.
Hold on tight, Stu…..it’s gonna be a bumpy ride!
I think, and I hope I am right, that much of the manipulation worked because of the need for so little of it, to move the needle.
We are talking about .05% – 1.5% and although hat is huge, as a manipulative number it’s rather small, (on a National Level).
With pretty much all voting blocks going Conservative and hence leaning Republican, it will take 5% – 10% Minimum to move that needle. Chaos for certain, if the attempt to try, but futilely lies in the effort I do believe.
We shall see soon enough…
Other than the Con Vid pandemic, what horrible things have we ‘experienced’ in the past 3.5 years? Like I said other than the scamdemic and the associated massive fiscal and monetary stimulus?
Food and services up by 11,3% YOY.
Rent, insurance and interestpayments probably up by similar numbers.
According to the mediapropaganda, the inflation fight is over.
Even Powell threw in the towel.
Either I’m having a brainfreeze, or everything is just a fake narrative to gaslight the nation.
The White House Mafioso gave Powell an offer he couldn’t refuse.
I think everyone is starting to see all central banks for what they are.
A tiny group of corrupt, elite bankers enslaving the world with massive amounts of debt while manipulating the price of money.
This is their dreamscenario; record-debt and (relatively) high interestrates.
Qui bono?
This a replay of 1980. Powell had a chance to be a winner. He will be a loser.