Really? No, not quite. Read the fine print. Then let’s discuss the possibilities.
Marco Rubio Full Statement on X
After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID. The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States. In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department. Thank you to DOGE and our hardworking staff who worked very long hours to achieve this overdue and historic reform.
Cancelled USAID Contracts
The Trump administration is canceling 83% of programs at the US Agency for International Development and intends to fold the remaining programs under the State Department, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday.
CNN has reached out to the State Department for more information, including the difference in figures between Rubio’s post and the court filing.
A federal judge has allowed the administration to move forward with putting people on leave and terminations, but another federal judge ruled that the administration must pay out nearly $2 billion in unpaid fees for humanitarian work. The Supreme Court upheld the latter ruling last week but did not provide a timeline for pay out.
Rubio vs Musk
I believe Rubio means what he says. And assuming my interpretation is correct, I am 100 percent OK with it.
Did you catch the key phrase? Here it is: “In consultation with Congress“.
This is not Muskian BS.
In an Audio podcast in the middle of the night Elon Musk said he and Trump are shutting down USAID. They didn’t and won’t.
Q&A on USAID
Q: Does Musk, Rubio, or Trump have the power to shut down USAID?
A: No
Q: Can Rubio move USAID to the State Department?
A: Why not? It belongs there.
Q: Can Congress shut down USAID?
A: Yes
Q:Does Rubio intend to gut USAID?
A: Yes. But the key difference is “in consultation with Congress”
Q: Do you support legal dismantling of USAID?
A: Yes, and I never hinted otherwise.
Q: Were court actions demanding USAID payments go out, the correct decisions?
A: Certainly. Congress, not the president is responsible for the budget, as the courts correctly ruled.
Q: How much money will this save.
A: Unknown, but here is the budget to consider.
USAID Budget
The above image from the 2025 Secretary of State Congressional Budget Justification.
Missing the Key Point
I read numerous reports this morning. All of them missed the key item: “In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department.”
Cutting 83 percent of the items (the above are major categories, not items), could cut anywhere from 1 percent to 99+ percent of the budget.
My guess is 5 to 10 percent. And there will be a battle in Congress over every item.
Show Me the Money
Trump will crow, Musk is crowing, and the MAGA crowd is 100 percent elated.
Me? Show me the money. Let’s see what Congress does.
On February 6, I commented USAID Cancellation by Trump, the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Details
The Good
Rooting out fraud and ridiculous unauthorized payments is good. Moreover, there is grounds to fire everyone who sent out checks without questioning a single one.
The Bad
Sorry DOGE, but a blanket cancellation of all payments is unconstitutional.
The Ugly
Elon Musk has no power to do anything but advise the President and make recommendations.
Also in the ugly category is the simple fact that many if not most of the payments are legitimate. By legitimate, I mean genuinely authorized by Congress, not that I think they are a good idea.
The Unfortunate Reality
There is no advantage in releasing Musk in a China shop than releasing George Soros in the same China shop. No good will come from a reckless smashing of plates.
And the unfortunate impact might very well be the courts block everything when some very good things may have happened if Trump took a legitimate case-by-case look.
Lawsuits are pending and Trump will lose. We should not be in this setup.
Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Pause on USAID Payouts
On March 5, I commented Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Pause on USAID Payouts
I thought this could go either way, and the 5-4 vote shows it might have.
My Warning Then Is Now Reality
As I said on February 6, “The unfortunate impact might very well be the courts block everything when some very good things may have happened if Trump took a legitimate case-by-case look.“
That this quite conservative court overruled Trump on timing does not bode well for Trump’s more ridiculous actions such as ending birthright citizenship.
As I also said on February 6, “We should not be in this setup.”
This court smackdown is a good thing. I don’t want Trump running roughshod over the Constitution any more than I did Biden. Hypocrites, of course, don’t see it that way.
Perhaps the resolution to this is a 30-day hold instead of 90. I am fine with reasonable actions and we would not be here with reasonable actions. Unfortunately, this could easily turn into a total loss.
However, I do expect Trump to salvage something, eventually, but less than he taken a more reasonable approach.
Regardless of what Congress does, everyone should cheer Rubio going about this the correct way.
Now, we will get something done, legally, with no risk of court interference.
We should have started here in the first place.
Meanwhile …
Don’t count broken eggs before the Senate and House agree to break them.
This falls into the good idea but poor execution column..
The quoted CNN article is wrong. The judge ruled that only the named plaintiffs could get their money, amounting to millions of dollars, not billions. Per AP, “An earlier version incorrectly said Judge Amir Ali ordered repayment of all of nearly $2 billion in USAID and State Department debts by Monday” As was stated before standing is one of the key issues in the case.
“Cancel” is not the correct term to use with Government contracts. The Government can rescind a contract if it has never been used. This is fifficult but sometimes possible. As a retired Government Contracting Officer, I have rescinded one contract. More probably, the Contracting Officer under Rubio did a Termination for Convenience (T4C) or Termination for Default (T4D). Obviously a T4D can only be performed if the contract terms and conditions are not being met, but the Government has the absolute right to perform a T4C.
Ending birthright citizenship isn’t ridiculous. However it might be hard to achieve as it depends on how the Supremes rule (a long shot) or a constitutional amendment ( need a number of blue states to sign on. That will only happen if the Dems destroy themselves with more TDS and there is a red wave).
If there is no change then within 2 generations the majority of US citizens will hold dual nationality like my nephew who left the US as a baby
Congress approves a budget for USAID, not for specific expenditures within that budget. The latter responsibility falls within the Executive branch. So I fail to see where cancelling specific expenditures not felt to advance U.S. interests is unconstitutional. Where does the constitution give any rights to foreign entities that had been receiving money from USAID.
Yep. I have wondered why the Trump administration hasn’t told Congress that the funding is not authorized by the Constitution and therefore the money will not be spent. They could do that with probably 90% of the federal budget.
One question for the naysayers. Would it have happened without Trump/Musk?
The answer, of course, is a resounding ‘NO!’
The reason is found here:
“…Congress, not the president is responsible for the budget..”
Which should be reason for gallows to be erected on the Capitol steps.Bankrupting the nation is surely treason.
Wake me in two years and we’ll see how all this goes after the mid-terms. Meanwhile, mass confusion and argument. Elon’s net worth may be down below $100 billion by then.
Having a consultation with Congress about moving the remaining 17% to the State Department is not the same as getting the approval of Congress to cancel the 83%.
A more neutral look IMO:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-rubio-usaid-foreign-aid-bf442d62af67918a6fc5eee839074601
Why not 100% and why does USAID need a budget since they are no longer a free standing entity?
Congress has a Republican majority. Expect *at least* 20% of USAid items being cut, and most likely, well over 30%.
SCOTUS! Roberts along with Barrett flipped to nut job side. Roberts is a political creature. Corrupt, don’t know about that but politics is inherently corrupt. The dissents were more in line with reality. Impeachment 1, 2 were political theater of the absurd. Willis, Bragg, Smith et al conducting lawfare backed by billionaires and their footloose politicians including the WH. And we’re to expect “reasonable” because there’s now a mandate? This is a war and all wars conduct information warfare.
Impounding budgeted dollars was unconstitutional under Nixon and it remains under Trump.
Rubio’s rouse mentioning Congress is a false flag.
The money has been allocated by Congress. Congress has to cut the funding before Trump or any agency, department, etc., can cut.
Congress specifically authorized expenfitures we have been hearing about? Not likely. USAID funds have been a pot that the employees of USAID have been doling out with apparently little oversight.
Don’t think many of the long term congressional folks don’t know where this money is going..plausible deniability is the tool of the corrupt
FWIW the austerity measures won’t matter. The real issue is globalization and the government having to step in where the private sector fails. Trump needs to sell economic depression to 300M people. Maybe if 20% leave the US permanently. But we are headed back to 1990s level GDP when all is said and done.
Hopefully Congress has gotten the message by now that the American public *wants* cuts to the programs and does not fight every dollar.
If they do, I expect those who oppose the cuts to be outed and be the target of some vicious campaigns against them until they get in line. Shouldn’t take more than one example for everyone to fall in line because we already see how quickly most have reversed course on DEI once it became clear that the public was no longer interested in it.
Responding to TexasTim’s statement:
“I expect those who oppose the cuts to be outed and be the target of some vicious campaigns against them until they get in line” (emphasis mine). Gee, I guess those who oppose many of the cuts better expect bricks through their house windows, loss of jobs, and call outs to local magas to go after these people. Please explain why those who oppose many (not all) of the cuts on legal, contractual, humanitarian, or national interest grounds should be harassed?
when do I get my $5000 check?
Trump recession has arrived. Mass layoffs in private sector coming. Only took him 6 weeks. Imagine what he can do in 4 years.
I remember Reagan’s morning in America, after his deep 1981-82 recession. Got him reelected in a landslide in 1984, winning 49 of 50 states.
To appreciate Reagan’s situation, you need to understand the problem of US competitiveness, or lack thereof (against Japan and Europe) after WW2. Unfortunately, Reagan got suckered by Tip O’Neill, and the spending cuts so badly needed never occurred. Worse, the Reagan ‘gain’ that should’ve been was spent by Americans buying (mostly) Japanese products over still inferior American products.
What is now underway is what should’ve happened in 2008. After those idiotic bailouts,US wealth was primarily created by ever-increasing financialization. The recession should properly be called the Wall Street Recession (or maybe implosion)
A gift to China. They now have multiple ports 90 miles from the US.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-warned-caribbean-becoming-chinese-lake-2041296
This too.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8764715/How-China-poured-billions-Caribbean.html
It’s awesome that they are spending their surplus money doing this so that we don’t have to. Sort of the same way I want to just go to the finish line on EV batteries once they perfect the technology so we don’t waste years/decades on it.
If anyone thinks for one micro second that military bases will be allowed there they just need to revisit the Cuban Missile crises. That won’t be tolerated.
BY the time EV batteries reach maturity in the product life cycle, excess profits will have disappeared as a result of competition. I suspect Musk is already aware that the EV market will be so competitive, he’ll reinvent Tesla into something new–likely fuel cells since they are cleaner and more efficient (once he can solve the explosion problem). The next few years will be interesting.
That crisis required the US to back down on stationing missiles in Turkey. A comparable example today would be the US backing down on stationing weapons in the vicinity of the South China Sea in exchange for China not stationing weapons in the Caribbean.
This is really old news. On the positive side, they’ve made some really bad investments, but even when the loans sour, the Chinese still come out on top–classic example was hotel projects in Trinidad, underwritten by offshore oil leases.
There are similarities to Japan’s economic colonialism in the 1980s when they snapped up golf courses, hotels, malls, office buildings at unheard of cap rates. Of course, Japan’s interest rates enabled that
USAid was an example of US soft power – a message to the world that we cared about its problems and wanted to offer a solution. That allowed us to sell them our goods, station our military on their soil and generally get our way in diplomatic affairs. In that regard, $40B was peanuts – you’d spend more on an advertising campaign to get the same results. But USAid is gone, our soft power is crippled and the rest of the world (except for Putin) hates us. When even Canadians boo our national anthem you know something is going very, very wrong.
That’s adorable. USAID prints all the identical placards in English and hands them out to the astroturfed opposition that we pay to protest whenever an election turns out “wrong”. See Georgian Dream’s recent election win. And a bunch of other places. Nothing shows that we care about a people more than toppling their government to install western-trained lackeys who will help westerners loot the place.
If the rest of the world hates you, that can’t have happened overnight… it must have been following years of USAID activity.
correct
If USAID actually did what it pretended to do, it would be laudable. But one must follow the money and see what actually got done, and that’s not pretty at all.
Surely by now you must realize that nothing is as it pretends to be? In the absence of accountability, everything the government attempts to do ends up inverted. The “defense department” mainly conducts overseas attacks. The “education department” has not improved education. Medicare makes healthcare more expensive, not better. Department of Homeland Security allowed a fentanyl explosion and the Border Patrol was tasked to facilitate illegal immigration. The list goes on an on!
Don’t believe the hype. The U.S. lost its soft power gradually as USAID was corrupted, along with the other parts of the government – not when USAID’s corruption was exposed.
Thailand’s largest trade partner – China -was building high-speed rail for them. America supports politicians who oppose Belt & Road projects like that. With America’s help – via USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy, countries can be saved from development. God Bless America.
The fundamental ‘fail’ of the US. Department of Education.
Assume Covid was a crisis that justified closing schools. Now, where are the studies of BEST and WORST practices, so we can LEARN?
The point… the US Department of Education does not understand what Education is/should be. Instead, it conducts low-level brainwashing.
No doubt USAID started as you describe. Do you have first hand experience with the agency, understand what it did well and where it was corrupted by politicians and business interests and what was needed to correct the agency’s mistakes?
In principle, USAID was originally well-intentioned. IT should’ve focused on useful AID, with real benefits for the people needing help, NOT politicizing outcomes. The world came to hate the USA because it meddled in social/cultural change to create mini-Americas.
If you don’t understand and appreciate the values and beliefs of other countries, DON’T GO THERE.
Every penny which any government takes from it’s citizens, above that which it must have for its operational needs, is theft, regardless of the name the thieves put upon it. USAID needs to be completely destroyed forever.
Somebody wanted it. Govt would leave people like you alone, except someone comes along and wants more. Damn sick negroes should take care of their own diseases.
Well, are they adults or aren’t they? When do they get to leave the plantation?
Foreign aid: Taking money from poor people in rich countries and giving it to rich people in poor countries.
Tell that to Rubio. I suspect he will propose getting rid of about 5%-10% of it. not 83%
When an earthquake destroys a city, the US should be there first and foremost with medical aid, housing, food, etc. Deciding females should not wear hajibs is on par with religious missionaries of the 19th century.
Sorry, this is very naive. First, how do you define “operational needs”. Does the programs designed to aid Veterans,the programs to help reduce the loss of property and lives due to serious fires, or the funding to provide national parks with enough staff to keep the areas clean and safe, count as “operational needs”.
Places like Afghanistan, Palestine, even North Korea, receives education, health services, infraestructure, food, etc. from the UN, EU and USAID. They can employ 100% of their budget in weapons (minus a small part, that is employed in burning US flag every week) Put that people to work nd the world will be more peaceful.
UK has decided cut foreign aid and put that money in the army. Good move!
Executive should be appealing lack of standing due to failure to post security under Rule 65 in these overly broad federal court cases & rulings.
If there was an issue of standing, I guarantee that this SC would have flushed it out already.
~0 percent chance
Actions one of the tools in the toolbox. If the Executive was/is serious it would negate a lot of these shopped venue lawsuits.
83% sounds about right. Nice job, Rubio!
Only if it’s 83% by $$ and there’s audited transparent accountability for the remaining 17%.
A bunch of starving diseased people were always off his radar. He does not conceal the view that the game is zero-sum, and losers are already unworthy (even, as he remarked in reference to John McCain, our own personnel captured in war). What worries me more is his utter incapacity to comprehend the concept of promises, partners or friends.
do you pay your friends to be your friends?
Thanks Mish-Talk for a transparent reporting of this story.
So glad I’m on your E mail List.
Thanks, Mac From Omaha
Lets not forget Trump is the dictator, er, president. Whatever shows up in his beloved media stream defines how he reacts. If he notes love withering on the vine for one of his actions, he will immediately reverse course, as he has done hundreds of times before. He doesnt care about balanced budgets, inflation, unrest or whether anything can be afforded. Like all good autocrats, he cares about himself and his image. Trump wants to be loved. Putin wants to be loved. Al-Assad wanted to be loved. You only get love from children if you give them lots of toys and candy.
What is it with you people calling elected leaders “dictators”, do you doubt the integrity of your elections? Did that integrity suddenly stop having “integrityness” immediately after the last election? Or was that election the election of a dictatorship too?
Hitler was elected in 1933, and so sometimes the public chooses the wrong person. Doesnt mean the other side gets muzzled and crapped on in the interim.
You should diversify your news feed, because you clearly missed the historic and unprecedented “muzzling and crapping on” that took place from 2020-2024.
It was thoroughly documented, but not in the media doing the muzzling and crapping. The response to that unprecedented abuse of power helps greatly to explain the recent election and subsequent events.
Own any stocks? Nuff said.
Scott – you don’t happen to moonlight as a judge in Romania do you? They’re making sure the “wrong person” can’t even get on the ballot.
I dont do Romania. Its over there somewhere.
“Lets not forget Trump is the dictator…”
A Democrat Party narrative. Democrats are perfectly fine with their own dictates.