Are you cheering? Many are? 
Technical Picture
Starting with the technical picture, the election gap is filled.
Gaps up occur when a stock opens above the high of the preceding day and stay there. Gaps down occur when a stock opens below the low of the preceding day and stay there.
There are two open gaps on Tesla. One of them at $140, from April, and I fully expect that one to fill.
The good news with gaps is there are none on the weekly or monthly charts, at least that I easily see.
Weekly support levels are are at $212, $138 (the gap), and $100.
Given the severity of this Tesla downturn, perhaps there is a technical bounce at $212. But there’s likely to be a stronger and longer-lasting bounce near $138.
Worst Day Since 2020
Today, the Wall Street Journal reports Tesla Stock Falls 15% in Worst Day Since 2020
UBS on Monday lowered its first-quarter delivery forecast for the electric-vehicle maker, noting low delivery times for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in key markets. Lukewarm deliveries in Europe have recently been driven by Germany, France, Norway and Spain, the bank noted, while performance in the U.K. has been stronger.
The analysts also flagged that Chinese manufacturer BYD’s advanced driver-assistance systems “is damaging for TSLA in China and makes their product less competitive.”
Other analysts remain bullish. Last week, Wedbush analysts wrote that while Musk’s involvement in the administration has triggered brand concerns, the firm believes that under 5% of Tesla sales across the world are at risk due to those concerns. “Importantly,” they added, “we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said he believes the company is at the beginning of one of the biggest phases of innovation in its history.
“For the last fifteen years, many times, the bears and the skeptics thought it was the end of Tesla,” Ives said. “The narrative that the Musk brand is going to deteriorate the growth trajectory of Tesla is misguided.”
Not the End of Tesla
No, this won’t be the end of Tesla. It will survive. But this may easily be the end of absurd Tesla valuations.
Wedbush analysts said “We expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025.”
Yes, but how? Eventually Trump will get rid of Musk.
Hoot of the Day
The more ridiculous comment is from Ives. “The narrative that the Musk brand is going to deteriorate the growth trajectory of Tesla is misguided.”
Musk and Trump have both already deteriorated the growth trajectory of Tesla.
Sales of Teslas in China will trend towards zero. Trump-sponsored trade wars with China will see to that sooner or later. Put me down for the much sooner bucket.
US Tesla Sales Collapse
Reuters reports Tesla Sales in Germany Slump in February
- Germany Down 76%
- Netherlands Down 24%
- Sweden Down 42%
- Norway and Denmark Down 48%
- France Down 45%
- Italy Down 55%
Think about where those numbers headed when Trump blasts the EU with tariffs and the EU responds in the obvious manner.
What About the US?
Good question. Thanks for asking.
I will answer with a question: What percentage of the county is totally pissed off at Musk and/or Trump?
Also, I am pleased to report Trump’s White House announcement on Unleashing American Energy.
(e) to eliminate the “electric vehicle (EV) mandate” and promote true consumer choice, which is essential for economic growth and innovation, by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access; by ensuring a level regulatory playing field for consumer choice in vehicles; by terminating, where appropriate, state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles; and by considering the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase by individuals, private businesses, and government entities alike by rendering other types of vehicles unaffordable;
The saving grace for Musk, for now, is that Trump cannot get rid of EV tax credits by himself.
That would take an act of Congress. But Trump wants to do that.
Curiously, Musk supported such a move. But that was on grounds of a mandated move towards EVs he thought he would win.
Now what? Here, an executive order will be sufficient to slow EV sales. It won’t take an act of Congress.
There is a place for EVs. But at a much slower pace and with much more competition, including hybrids.
What is Tesla worth without EV tax credits, emission credits, dramatically slower sales in the EU and US, increased competition, and headed for zero sales in China?
A Conversation on My Blog Today
“Your grievance against Mr. Musk appears to be that he is a bull in a China shop.”
I actually think Musk is a genius. Tesla and SpaceX are proof enough to me.
But look where bull in a China shop has gone: Nowhere, as the courts have shown. Rubio will do things the correct way, or they won’t get done.
Musk’s role is only advisory. He has overstepped those bounds many times and a couple of them have blown up.
Expect to hear this: “You’re Fired”.
Musk’s Glee
It’s the glee in Musk’s firings that’s really galling. And he can’t even get it right.
On February 17, I commented DOGE Makes Huge Mistake Firing Nuclear Workers, Now Seeks to Rehire Them
When you fire people without understanding what they even do, you make big mistakes.
Rubio Cancels 83 Percent of USAID Programs Following 6-Week Review
Earlier today, I commented Rubio Cancels 83 Percent of USAID Programs Following 6-Week Review
Really? No, not quite. Read the fine print. Then let’s discuss the possibilities.
Following numerous court smackdowns, the Trump administration is finally going about this the right way.
In an Explosive White House Meeting, Cabinet Officials Clash With Elon Musk
On March 8, I commented In an Explosive White House Meeting, Cabinet Officials Clash With Elon Musk
One clueless person discounted the story based on the source: The New York Times.
Spare me the ad hominem attacks. When people have no other way, they try to discredit the source. The story is quite believable, and reported elsewhere. It’s the denials that aren’t believable.
Coming sooner or later. “You’re Fired”. When it happens, about 75 percent of the nation will have had enough of Musk.
Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”
Finally, please consider Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”
My sarcastic opening line was “Don’t worry, it’s just a little more pain and inflation disturbance before tariff greatness begins.”
There won’t be any tariff greatness.
Related Posts
March 4, 2025: A Global Trade War Has Started – Global Recession Will Follow
The most significant global trade war since Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression is underway
March 5, 2025: The Tariff Clown Show Continues with Another One-Month Extension for Autos
Another one-month reprieve will solve as much as the last one-month reprieve. For those keeping score, nothing.
March 7, 2025: Employment Drops by 588,000 as Jobs Increase by Weaker Than Expected 151,000
Beneath a weak headline jobs number, the details are even weaker.
March 7, 2025: A Historical Look at Unemployment Rates Heading Into Recessions
In 1994, the BLS made huge changes in the calculation of the unemployment rate. So that’s all the further back I look.
March 7, 2025: Statement from Pat Higgins on Gold Impact to GDPNow Forecast
Factoring gold into import data, GDP is plus 0.4 percent and I calculate a negative number for Real Final Sales, the more important number. We will know more on Monday, March 17.
“When you fire people without understanding what they even do, you make big mistakes.”
This is obviously true. But to step into a Federal agency as an outsider and attempt to figure out what they are supposed to do, what they are actually doing, and who is doing and who is not doing, would be quite a challenge.
One would have no choice but to get information from the managers. The managers are the ones who have created a system of fraud, waste and abuse where there is supposed to be a working system, and the vast majority were attracted to the agencies and remained with the agencies when they understood the “good thing” they had gotten their lazy and unprincipled hands on.
In short…firing those who should be fired, as opposed to firing people needed to perform the worthwhile tasks, is a bit like picking stocks. Some very intelligent people have pointed out that monkeys with darts do just as well.
Perhaps they should have monkeys throwing darts to select those to be let go. I spent time with three Federal agencies. From what I saw, it wouldn’t do a lot of damage to fire everyone and hire some monkeys to throw darts instead. It’s not a bunch of important agencies doing important work with a few bad apples. DC is a sea of fraud, waste and abuse at the expense of the American taxpayers. I wouldn’t lose a lot of sleep worrying about what we’ve lost after the reduction in force. The far bigger issue is debt and everyone who is let go is taking down a stream of consultants and contractors who are equally of precious little value. The agencies I worked at could withstand ten to fifty percent reductions in force with little loss of efficiency. Some I have dealt with as an outsider appear to be utterly useless.
I spent the last 20 years of my life going into large organizations, understanding what they do, why they do it and right-sizing the workforce. There are a number of well-regarded strategies for doing exactly this. Musk just doesn’t know they exist, which is not unusual. Most CEOs of large organizations are good at selling the perceived value of the organization, not actually running it.
Musk isn’t a genius – just a rich guy addled on ketamine who’s managing to destroy 3 companies (and the country) simultaneously. Tesla won’t come back until they rid themselves of Musk – he’s made his brand toxic to the people who buy his cars (middle class liberals). Trump voters won’t buy them and tech bros are a very small niche segment of the population.
Big gains if you guess the right bear market day with TSLQ.L
Trump and Musk deserve to reap the benefits of a trade war folly. It’s the communist way. Putin would do the same thing.
“Are you cheering?”
I still don’t remember having cheered, over the Nasdaq bubble. Bubbles are destructive when they burst. Haven’t trusted the market since the record 22% one day crash in 1987. After 1929, they said that wasn’t supposed to happen again. Then the Nasdaq crashed 76%, a magnitude crash which wasn’t supposed to happen again. The post 1987 circuit breakers didn’t work very well to prevent a multi year collapse.
From the lockdown crash low, the Nasdaq doubled in two years, extremely abnormal. Now it is even more abnormally higher. But it always reverts to the mean and even below the mean, to correct excesses. Those are unhappy times.
Bought it at $479 in December. Guess I’ll be holding for a long time.
‘I got them billionaire kozmic blues Momma’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QE-4gt2low
I sold Tesla short at $423; based on today’s talk, I will probably cash out at $138. Thanks as always Mish.
Two comments: 1) Musk has gone from Golden Boy (in the eyes of Liberals) to GO-AWAY-Man! 2) The Uncertainty factor is not being spoken about with the Tariff Fiasco. “TAKE IT OUT AND PUT IT BACK” as Walter Brennan said in (Was it Rio Bravo??).
Anyway, imagine trying to run a business with Tariff declarations only to be extended!
He did. They loved him, especially IT lefty folks. They wouldn’t shut up about him and if you had real logical concerns about EV’s they would figuratively tar and feather you.
It has come full circle. IT articles and blogs constantly bash him. I think most of it however has more to do with envy than anything else. 99% of startups fail, yet Elon has has hoarded almost all the success for himself while everyone else is farting around creating worthless apps.
Govt regulations and kick backs made elon. He is a blood sucker and trump jealousy will destroy him.
Musk is hardly responsible for innovations at Tesla. Tesla was started by Mark Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard, those two are the real brains that made Tesla. Musk just came on board when they needed a guy who could fool people.
Elon never started a business from scratch, but his intuition to identify businesses with great potential to invest in has to be recognized.
Am having some thoughts directed more so at what Musk has been uncovering with DOGE.
In just past couple days Container ship happens to plow into an anchored vessel loaded with Jet fuel supposedly for US Military usage. Some Fireworks ensued as Tanker burned.
Cyberattack on X as it remains a Free Speech platform. Supposedly originated in Ukraine.
Two of Space X rockets blow up. Sabotage does raise its ugly head as possible cause.
Anchor dragging in Europe’s waters severing cable communication lines. Multiple instances have occurred.
Another shooting in DC near W.H. by Secret service of someone who wanted a crack at Trump.
Wildfires in Carolina’s similar to what was seen in LA.
Things going on as graft in Ukraine comes near being exposed. Brown shirts are pissed that revenue streams getting cut off.
Almost forgot, have trouble keeping up. Collision between commercial vessel and US Aircraft carrier.
The Space X upper stages are still too experimental to have a failure blamed on sabotage.
You can substitute the fire in Long Island though. That is suspected to be arson.
More generally, is anyone really surprised the AI bubble is finally popping?
Will see if they go ahead with manned launch. If it gets scrubbed, fill in the blanks.
Scheduled for March 12 from what I gather.
Fire in Long Island was attributed to a fire made to make Smores. Marshmallow with Chocolate type Smores. I don’t know about how that strikes you, but when I heard that, ‘oh really’ came to my mind.
Grok didn’t see that one coming 🙂
Under the uniparty: general Suleimani built his network. Under Trump: Suleimani was dead, killed in Jan 2020. If Suleimani was alive in Oct 2023 there will be no Israel.
We should be so lucky.
It used to be my countrymen who seemed to despise success but it’s a cancer growing across the west as we advance backwards into socialism. I have grown a business I started in my basement and know full well the basic risks and rewards. It’s a lot of work and fun but not for the majority – not one of my employees started their own business. Far too much whining here from a bunch of people who never did anything worthwhile. Let the whining continue.
that’s right !
I’m glad you have the authority (self proclaimed) to measure if others do “anything worthwhile”. Success is a relative measure dipshit. A wise person bases their success on personal goals, not looking upon others (like your own employees) with contempt because the didn’t follow your chosen path.
Elon is going to be ok. The man is brilliant and has multiple wealth streams. He has proven to be quite capable of running multiple businesses at the same time.
It may be that Tesla collapses but Musk comes out on the other end Whole. He could not possible SPEND that much money even if he tried to do it. He will be fine no matter what happens to his “job” with TrumpCo.
The uniparty put a spell on its traitors: Tesla, NVDA, Meta, MSFT…[1]M QQQ already breached July close, a long legged doji, thus it already entered Sept fractal zone. The dems traitors dragged the DOW and SPX down with them.. QQQ will test Feb high. If it fail it might try again. Basically QQQ is backing up above Nov 2021 high. It might breach Sept 2021 high. Biden’s sinkhole: 540 – 360 = 180. 180/340 = 33%. Since Nov 2008: from 25 to 540 = 515. thus Biden’s sinkhole: 35%, QQQ will drop to a support line: 2010 low to 2020 low.
Thereafter, under Trump/Vance, QQQ will rise to the resistance line, high above !
Makes me think of a bet predicated on a lot of really weird, multi-angle croquet shots coming out right. Unlike the Alice in Wonderland story where the croquet hoops are frustratingly walking around, this time it is the “star player” doing 180 spins and back again at very random intervals and directions.
‘180 spins’
Baerbock Geometry?
The lesson here is that the wealth of those at the top depends upon the hope of those at the bottom.
You wouldn’t have parasites like Soros, able to fund demagogues on the left, to commit acts of sabotage based on economic inequality if there wasn’t a complete loss of hope.
The true culprit is the last government, if they had done things that increased hope in terms of access to prosperity though private sector employment and entrepreneurship, then there wouldn’t be sufficient hopelessness to exploit for political ends.
Musk is an example of corporate handouts through left-wing, woke, greenwashing politics, and of course, him appearing to switch sides looks like treachery to the left, but the underlying problem is that ALL of them, both corporates like Musk and handout recipients/public sector non-job workers, are the recipients of helicopter money comforters/dummies, and all such people are liable to get so comfortable that when it’s taken away, tantrums start and toys get thrown out of the pram.
You don’t have to be a Trump fanboy to realise that the handouts have to stop, and the real wealth-generating economy has to emerge, and that can only happen by draining the excess fluid/liquidity, which obviously implies a bit correction (-12%?), and obviously pain for vested interests.
But all of this imaginary stuff called money, all of it contracts and loans – promises, relies on hope, that everyone can get a slice, and have something to work towards, to look forward to, to live for.
That doesn’t means socialist redistribution, but it does mean that people at the top should be protected from losing, which they often are.
It’s why we have regulation of markets, to prevent those at the top from rigging the system in their favour, which ultimately undermines the system itself, and puts all those token they’ve collected at risk… there’s a certain amount of Danegeld they have to pay to protect themselves from the wrath of the hopeless.
The details of the current tantrums, their targets and progenitors, are less important than the facts about hope in the economy. Faith, hope, and love, are necessary for stable, reasonable societies. 7 deadly sins seem to have their tentacles everywhere these days, and that is not limited to one side or the other, it’s both, it’s all.
Yes, tons of industrial policies, and such, are failures. But fundamental research often comes out of government. Let’s see — freeways, silicon chips, space flight, the Internet, air travel at scale. Railroads had land grants from gov. It is really hard to sort it in advance, so failures are inevitable as a part of that. So — ?
The 100Y uniparty put a spell on Ilan: Tesla plunge and SpaceX blowup.
Smart money – Buffett – sold out some time ago, the question is now how far the correction will go. Underlying economic factors look better than they appear due to Biden stimulus, but that is wearing off, and Trump was saying on Sunday they weren’t going to prop up the economy.
Will politically motivated buyer Activism become a thing this year? With democrats buying from certain brands, and republicans from others?
Could get ugly this year for America: a completely divided nation, stocks tanking, and an unpredictable president.
Post a Tesla 222 valuation, its ongoing PE ratio is 109; what is its 6 month EFPE ratio, (Expected Future PE ratio)? Concur with the valuation areas of technical resistance.
The US (and the world) are at the end of a great 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x fractal credit cycle. Growth to a maximum valuation (Feb 19, 2025 for the SPX) and thereafter decay of composite equity valuation occur in a self-assembled mathematical timed-based fractal manner.
This cycle was propelled by the US hegemonic central bank’s ability to borrow trillions from our post WW2 allies in US dollars and literally print and create electronic money, with a residual of 4.6 trillion still on its books and 1.3 trillion created in the empty SSI fund. A reliable trustworthy nuclear-weapon-ed hegemony with a global reserve currency supported by wealthy allies can do that.
More than just about anything Putin hates the ex nihilo electronically created US dollars ultimately paying for Russian natural resources. If achievable, peace in Ukraine will be a pyrrhic win for the US hegemony and the US dollar.
Like Warren Buffet stated, ‘ I bought an airline once’.
Stay away from transportation investments. Matters not who the CEO is.
Warren’s BNSF seems to be relative well-protected. Perhaps a qualifier of ‘transportation investments that move people’?
https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/buffett-praises-railroaders-says-he-expects-bnsf-profit-margins-to-improve/
They call it the “Tesla Chainsaw Massacre” and I thought we’d get a dead cat bounce tomorrow but the futures look bleak already. Maybe things will change in the morning
For those that know how to play Trump like a fiddle, it really is the golden age. My puts printed tendies today and we’ll see what happens next week.
Oh and Mish, you left out all the violence that is happening at Tesla dealerships across the country. Tesla s are now considered the nazi-mobile so good luck staying safe if you own one.
https://www.wweek.com/news/courts/2025/03/10/a-wave-of-attacks-hit-tesla-dealerships-nationwideand-in-oregon/
It’s only a matter of time before open drive by season on Tesla owners starts. Sad but likely.
Lets see what’s next for domestic terrorism after AntiFa terrorizing Tesla dealerships.
All the federal grant money during the Birdbrain Biden administration makes it into the hands of the “street activists” like AntiFa from the countless grant money “middle men” and “pass throughs” like Bend the Arc and Act Blue.
If the violence is declared ‘an insurrection’, then the property damage will be excluded on most commercial property insurance policies.
It’s terrible, but probably true. A friend of mine’s wife always drove a Mercedes in a small town full of class envy bums. When she figured out people were intentionally cutting her off and generally harassing her on the road due to the car she drove she sold it and never went back. You can’t have nice things in public in parts of the country.
1) The US and world hasnt figured this out yet, but after 30 years of dealing with alternative fuel vehicles, Ill say flatly: a dedicated electric vehicle which cannot use gasoline in some way as a backup fuel is a stupid vehicle to own. The fear people have of running out of electricity is real, and will never go away. You cant charge/fuel up an EV as fast as a gasoline car. Youre stuck there for hours at best charging even if you have a charger. The Tesla is a stupid car sold to people trying to impress others, and nothing more. 2) Felon Musk isnt an engineer and didnt invent the Tesla or the SpaceX rockets. He was a mom’s basement programmer who somehow got his creation PayPal to circumvent the credit card banks for awhile. He didnt invent much of anything. His eventual firing and downfall will be sweet.
And your contribution to society and economic growth? Sour grapes never sounded so loud.
The Cyber Truck looks horrible. Most Teslas are way too expensive and generally overpowered. Tesla needs 2-3 additional vehicles:
Inexpensive, sporty small car under $25K before tax credit
Midsize SUV
Radical EV that emphasizes range above all else. Maybe not something as radical an the Aptera on 3 wheels but something geared towards very high EV range.
The Chinese are making all of the above. If the ones I’ve been seeing on the internet are in actual production, they are well done and advanced over our American cars. And, I saw a video of a Chinese car manufacturing plant operating 24-7 with the lights out. All robots.
You sound like the old lady a few miles from me in Loveland, Colorado who made three (3!) trips to the Tesla dealer to deface, trash and blow things up. The latter was finally stopped by the police.
No one loves a billionaire, but so much hate just oozes out of all the Western media.
Tesla is converting from car company to robot company. Jumping from one horse to another at full gallop is never easy.
Living in a city highly infested by Teslas you often wonder what happens when everyone who wants one has one. Now we shall find out. BMW sells many more cars, makes tons of money, pays 7%, and has a P/E of 6ish. Wherefore then the 108x earnings Tesla gets for:
grifting government rebates
grifting government subsidies
grifting “carbon credits” which Ford, etc have to buy (B. Madoff wishes he thought of that one!)
grifting Full Self Crash
grifting non-existent robo-taxis
Let’s remember 100 years ago there was an electric car craze, but then…By the 1920s the vast majority of North American electric car companies had either gone out of business or shifted over to manufacturing industrial vehicles, such as forklifts and mine trucks.
I doubt many feel sorry for musk as he has brought these ill feelings on himself.
I feel sorry for his son who got convinced by the woke hive mind virus that he’s a lady.
I feel badly for him, Like him, I feel that we are on the precipice of very bad economic times caused by decades of horrendous federal policies and explosive debt growth. He’s acting with urgency, not cruelty. It will be entertaining to read Mish’s and your ilk’s comments if the thing that he is fearing comes to pass. You’ll all be saying, oh, why didn’t we act more more quickly.
Even with urgency, it’s going to take some time. By finding and removing the big negative impact sources, it will become much more Positive, in a much quicker time frame imo. Also why I agreed with the Hatchet approach, and a scalpel to finish off with. By the Mid-Terms things will be quite different than they are today…
Maybe we (the US) will stop meddling in the affairs of other countries.
It’s only going to get worse now that the 1st Amendment was revoked and you can’t even criticize the people bankrupting the USA on foreign affairs that go against American interests. It’s only a matter of time before Americans are put into prison for hate speech against their masters.
Yeah, crash diets do not work that well.
But I understand the urgency especially since if they make gradual changes, then a lot of that will be negated by a Democrat in the White House.
So Trump and Musk want to make large changes quickly like with cutting spending so that it will be very difficult to undo them and return to increasing annual deficits.
The proof is in the pudding as far as seeing how the Fiscal Year 2025 will compare to Fiscal Year 2024’s deficit of $1.9 trillion and 2023’s deficit of $1.65 trillion..
Couldn’t happen to a nicer person.
At what level of S&P500 do you think the fed will come to the rescue?
Hopefully never
Last time it was just a random number, 666.
(To all you youngsters out there – no joke! in 2009)
No comment on the violence against Tesla owners and dealerships I see. As usual the violence and death threats are all from one side. Rumors of paid protestors as well. As organic as a color revolution.
Here’s an article on that and more:
This is just another manifestation of the “burn it all down” mentality. Burn down Biden. Burn down the federal bureaucracy. Burn down Trump. Burn down Musk. Burn down Tesla. Burn it all down.
That releases too much CO2
Not read/heard enough about it, that is considered concrete enough to draw any actual conclusions. Which I guess is obvious, as neither have the authorities.
It appears as though Protesters were involved, but if all was legit then they have the right. Most of what I have heard, has leaned towards being emotionally charged (think TDS). If Vandalism occurred, that needs to be punished.
I guess as more Facts emerge, we will understand a bit more…
It’s not that bad. Several Teslas in my neighborhood now have stickers saying: “I bought this before I knew Elon Musk is crazy.” And that sounds about right.
Did the democrats ever put up a sticker saying It voted for Biden before I knew he was senile?