When you roll the dice on wars, unpleasant things usually happen.
Russia May Redirect LNG
Please note Russia weighs redirecting LNG exports from Europe to Asia-Pacific
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that he had discussed with domestic energy companies the possibility of redirecting Russian supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Europe to other markets, Interfax news agency and Izvestia newspaper reported.
Earlier this week Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe right now amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, pre-empting EU plans to stop Russian LNG imports by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 30, 2027
Novak said that Russian companies were considering opportunities to divert shipments to Asia-Pacific markets. Negotiations are already under way, he said, and in the near future supplies will be redirected from the European market to what he described as friendly countries.
“Our companies are considering opportunities, without waiting for further restrictions from Europe, to conclude new long-term contracts with our partners and redirect some of the gas from Europe to other countries, including India, Thailand, the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China”, Novak said.
Do It. Why Wait?
Europe threatens to wean itself off Russian natural gas, so why wait?
It’s Europe that wants other sources. So, as a business decision, let Europe find them.
Things like this happens when you roll the dice on war.
World’s LNG System Strains as Qatar Halt Leaves Little Backup Supply
gCaptain reports World’s LNG System Strains as Qatar Halt Leaves Little Backup Supply
Companies in the United States and Australia, two of the top global liquefied natural gas producers, have little spare capacity to offset lost supply after Qatar halted production and declared force majeure on shipments due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to Reuters calculations and industry analysts.
Qatar supplies around 20% of the world’s LNG but stopped production this week because it is unable to send tankers full of the super-chilled gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it would fire on any vessel that attempts to sail through the strait.
The U.S. is the world’s largest LNG producer, but its plants are running near full tilt and most cargoes are locked into long-term contracts. New U.S. production that could come online soon is unlikely to exceed 2 billion cubic feet per day, far short of the 10 bcfd gap left by Qatar – equal to about 80 million tons per year, according to Reuters calculations.
“There is no massive capacity on the sidelines,” said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG at research firm Rapidan Energy Group.
Russia Benefits
Middle East War Threatens Global Flows
On March 2, Bloomberg reported European Gas Jumps 28% as Middle East War Threatens Global Flows
European natural gas surged after fighting across the Middle East raised fears of a major disruption to global energy supplies, with traders watching how long ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain halted.
Benchmark futures jumped as much as 28% — the biggest increase since August 2023 — after tankers largely stopped traversing the narrow waterway over the weekend. It’s a key shipping route for energy, carrying about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas exports. Oil also rose sharply.
Things just got worse, much worse.
Europe’s Natural Gas Price Set for Largest Weekly Gain in Three Years
Today, Bloomberg reports Europe’s Gas Price Set for Largest Weekly Gain in Three Years
European natural gas posted its steepest weekly gain since the energy crisis four years ago, as the war in the Middle East continues to cloud the outlook for global flows.
Benchmark futures rallied 67% for the week as volatility also jumped. Disruptions to energy supplies have sparked fears over intense competition for fuel and stronger inflationary pressures, particularly in Europe.
Earlier, Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that even if the conflict ended immediately, it would take the country “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries. The world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant at Ras Laffan shut earlier this week after an Iranian drone attack.
Europe’s gas market is particularly vulnerable as it’s emerging from winter with storage tanks depleted. That means it will have to buy more LNG cargoes this summer to refill them, vying with buyers in Asia for a limited pool of supplies if Middle Eastern flows can’t reach global markets.
“If you want an extra ship of US gas in Berlin, you have to bid high enough to divert it away from Tokyo,” Bernstein analysts including Irene Himona wrote in a note. Several tankers have already diverted toward Asia in recent days.
Demand is Global
Add Russia’s statements to the price mix.
US natural gas futures are up 6 percent today. We have all the gas we need, sort of. Global demand will push up US prices too.
And if US producers can make money selling LNG at higher prices, they will.
Finally, US data center power demand is surging, with most of the power coming from natural gas.
What’s the Off Ramp?
By now, every nation has to be looking for an off ramp. But I fail to see how one is remotely possible given Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender”.
For discussion, please see Irony of the Day: Trump Demands ‘Unconditional Surrender’ by Iran Without Declaring War
Unconditional surrender will take boots on the ground.
Related Posts
March 4, 2026: Strait of Hormuz Oil Bottleneck, Crude Jumps, Tanker Costs Soar 900 Percent
Trump says prices will come back down. OK when?
March 5, 2026: Four Mideast Oil Producers Discuss Force Majeure to Withdraw from US Contracts
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar discuss canceling US investment commitments.
March 6, 2026: Oil Surges $10 to $91 a Barrel, Trump Discuses Manipulating Oil Futures
All options are on the table, including futures manipulation.
Whatever this “Europe” is, clearly the EU leaders aren’t acting for the interests of their own citizens and instead are doing this at the USA’s behest, so I find the use of the name “Europe” to be a bit of a stretch. I assume that the writer intended to refer to the elites that mismanage the EU. Either way, that Putin would acquiesce to that was a bombshell for me when the news came out (even during the worst times of the Cold War the Soviets remained as reliable as ever), and it’s sad to think that 450 million taxpayers who didn’t consent to this would suffer as a result.
Cancellation of Army exercise fuels speculation about Mideast troop deploymentsThe elite 82nd Airborne Division, which specializes in ground combat and other fraught missions, is awaiting new orders after the unexpected change of plans.
As of 9:00am EDT, Iran states that the Straights of Hormuz are open and they have no intention of closing them.
Tons of contradictory information out there…
Trust in any statement by these governments or spokespersons is clearly lacking.
Marine Traffic site shows clusters of ships on either side of the straights of Hormuz. On the east side in the Bay of Oman, the cluster coming in to be filled are within 15 miles of Iran and could be hit almost as easily as if they were in Hormuz.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:61.0/centery:25.7/zoom:6
Logistically the Persian Gulf is roughly 4.5x the size of Lake Michigan and if Iran had weaponry to sink ships in Hormuz, they should be able to strike elsewhere within the Persian Gulf. Clearly, I am not a military expert so this is all armchair…
The only ship I observed directly transiting the center of the Straight of Hormuz was Iranian in the last three hours. The straight is open on a physical level. No ships have been sunk to block it and the shipping cessation if voluntary.
Interesting factoid…
Average width is 35 miles and the maximum width is 210 miles.
Straight of hormuz is 21 miles at its narrowest. My point is that nothing would be safe in the gulf if Iran’s military had significant capacity to sink large ships. Get the minesweepers in there and re-start shipping unless the halt is political?
Lotsa food for thought!
Nope… They said that they didn’t close the Strait of Hormuz but the Strait of Hormuz is not open…
They were partly taking the piss (LOVED IT!) and partly alluding to the fact that they are allowing ships of friendly countries (basically Russia and China) to transit.
LMAO
Please, Hurlsula, make my EFA puts great again.
Not so sure this will occur, and certainly not on a large scale. I understand that Russia has a future dream of LNG being all that and then some for them, and it will be perhaps, but maybe not if they screw them over now. Also I believe pipelines are needed and we know how that can end. Add in the chaos in the Middle East and lots of questions, but little in the way of answers. Not sure Russia is willing to place all there eggs in one basket, and a questionable one at that. I say “No”
Not Sure or Maybe should be an option in addition to the thumbs up down
Does Netanyahu Have Spies in the White House?
https://neuburger.substack.com/p/does-netanyahu-have-spies-in-the
“ Q: Do you think there will eventually be a need for boots on the ground?
GANTZ: I would not exclude it. …
Q: And will that include Israeli boots on the ground?
GANTZ: I exclude nothing. We’ve been waiting for 47 years [since the Iranian revolution]. We come to a point where every necessary means should be taken to achieve our goals.
Note that Israeli boots were an afterthought. She meant American boots. Her implied question was, “Even Israeli boots?”
So is it going to boil down to the haves and have nots? Are the Communist Countries going to hold there own for each other and likewise with the Democratic Countries?
LNG primarily comes from The US and Australia (?) for Dem. And Qatar for Comm. There are also some others in the mix as well. We have Russ & China Comm. and Japan, S. Korea and Malaysia (?) Dem. Not sure if its heavy on either side, as some are very close to potential adversaries, so things could change fast.
The Major Suppliers is where the focus is of course. It appears Australia feeds Asia, so that could change perhaps? Qatar seems to be heading towards Asia and leaving the EU behind perhaps? The U.S. feeds the EU, but that could change soon perhaps? Malaysia May have to go Asia as well, to keep peace in there Region, and themselves in good favor. This could get very ugly and fast. I would not rule out a takeover of Malaysia LNG in some way, shape or form. It has to be looked at now.
By China?
“Unconditional surrender will take boots on the ground.”
Already the second time that you repeat this, as if boots on the ground would garantee that outcome…
Today’s USA is very far from that of past decades and it’s doubtful they were ever able to take on a country like Iran.
There will probably be boots on the ground but most probably not American ones (aside from the usual SOF and the like), they are trying to coerce the Kurds and even the Azeris to do the dirty work for them or at least to attack first and weaken the Iranians before they themselves may have a try but it seems that the Kurds have started to learn their lesson and this time they look pretty reticent to be fucked over yet again by the Americans.
Anyway, let’s see. I have the pop-corn ready.
As I have said from the very beginning: this latest Judeo-American war is going to be the USA’s FAFO moment.
1.5 Trillion military budget.
Newly innovated AI weapons.
A lot of temptation.
I’d love to watch.
Will it be different from Vietnam and Afghan wars?
I’ll go and buy pop-corn.
Warning! ! !
If you win – not guaranteed
If you lose – that’s it.
= slight off topic about Russia
just recently bunch of posts and videos appeared about about Russians were giving Iranians coordinates for military targeting!
i don’t know whether it is true or not: but why Russia?
obv Repubs/Trump hate Chinese/ China more, so why didn;t they accuse China?
any thoughts?
You mean same thing the US has been doing for Ukraine against Russia for years now?
no question about it. last year Ukraine drone fell down w/.in 50 meters off my old school in middle of 1+ mil ppl city in south of Russia
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USA is active participant in war, still my question remains unanswered ..
why Russia, not china?
Maybe because Trump is supposed to go to China next month and China has already completely cut off again the US from their rare earths.
At this moment, the US can’t afford to piss off the Chinese more than he already has.
He has also suspended all of the indirect sanctions on Russian oil and gas placed on Germany, India etc because he is desperate to try to keep the price of energy low.
Trump and the US were already fucked, this latest Judeo-American war is just accelerating what was already in motion.
If only Putin and Xi had some balls they could have sped things up even more and we all would be better off…
Remember the July 2022 statement by Victor Orbán, ” We haven’t shot ourselves in the foot, we have shot ourselves in the lungs.”
The deindustrialization of Germany continues with no end in sight.
His Arch-Satancy, The Demon-Emperor Trump, from his Golden Throneroom, sitting on the Golden Epstein Throne, has ordered the destruction of the global economy, because all nations have not paid him enough tribute yet.
When asked, “What of the effects on our country?” he replied simply “I don’t care!”, and ordered more daily whippings of the Citizen-Slave population, until morale improves.
Epstein Files disclosures have rattled him and he wants distractions.
Does it not seem obvious by now?
THIS IS A PURPOSEFUL “WAR” – designed to freeze up the WORLD’S ENERGY SUPPLIES – is being done to cover up the SCREW-UPS IN OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
Please notice that the PRIVATE CREDIT MARKETS (Shadow Banks)….trillions of hidden “Shenanigan dollars” is crashing and the war can then be blamed.
MYSTERIES SOLVED.
The US is broke
Look at the debt
“A War” was inevitable
The USD lost the 99 handle today as the flight to safety turned toward o safer havens such as gold and silver. Heck even the Canadian dollar has caught a bid.
The insanely high cost of the newest war, along with Trump finally being forced to accept that his tariffs are illegal and the $130 billion that has to be financed and refunded are troubling enough. The new tariffs are also illegal and will either generate zero revenue or result in refunds again.
Couple this with the tax cuts of and massive BBB spending? You got a spending problem that discourages investing in US debt.
What good is a 4% yield if the currency falls another 2 – 5% and inflation eats another 3+%. Worse yet, the Fed might be pressured into lowering rates and increasing inflation even further!
One solution I have is quality precious metals miners with strong production numbers and a put/call strategy for managing increased returns.
But Trump wants a weak $.
The Project 2025 handlers of Trump have stated that they want the dollar to fail completely and be replaced. If they are successful, the US in in for a word of hurt!
As crazy as things are, it can get far worse!
Unconditional surrender tends to vastly increase the number of people murdered and maimed. Dying and losing limbs for what?
Our evil President assassinated the Spiritual Leader of Shia Islam in a Pearl-Harbor-like surprise attack under A FLAG OF TRUCE for negotiation. If our military obeyed their oath to protect & defend the Constitution, they’d turn their guns in the opposite direction and arrest Trump’s sorry ass.
I think Hegseth is already moving troops to the Middle East. He is playing games at this point.
Putin is not much of a clown, but he announced this with some irony & humor.
I find it hard to believe that Iran can stop shipping in the Straight of Hormuz. Any decent strategist would send a few disposable decoy ships through to draw out the Iranian firing positions for immediate destruction.
Interesting how the tides of global opinion are turning against Trump and his merry band of sycophants. Fox is the loudest war propaganda network standing and all the other Newscorp owned shitrags are beating the drums of war.
With all the left over/surplus conventional munitions scattered everywhere in America it would seem likely that Trump’s B52’s will start flying long range, high altitude bombing missions to insure Gaza like conditions across a wide swath of Iran’s cities.
Does Trump have a complete list of girls schools to destroy? After all, schoolgirls are threats to America so they must be destroyed.
/Sarc
A simple small and hard to detect drone is enough to disable an oil tanker trying to pass through the strait, and Iran has thousands of those.
so yeah, closing the straight by simply making the crossing too risky for insurers is not that difficult.
Do you realize how big oil tankers are? Some are over 1,000 feet long
Yes, A drone has to be used pretty accurately to stop one…
I have a bet with my wife that the straight will be open by next Fridays market close in NY.
Your IQ is a negative number
Frosty ended with a sarc tag. If anything in his comment doesn’t make sense, I bet it was intentioned as a joke.
So, what are you going to lose to her?
I will upvote because it is plausible, because important people will pressure Donnie to stop their losses. What remains to be seen is whether those are the people who count most.
I seem to remember Trump told Europe not to built NordStream 2 gas line from Russia to Germany because Putin would be able to manipulate Europe by cutting off the supply. And here we are, Putin is cutting off LNG supply to Europe.
Think that might have anything to do with Europe using Ukraine in a proxy war?
Think that might have anything to do with US using Ukraine in a proxy war
I seem to remember the Anglo-Americans blowing NordStream up and the EU+UK progressively sanctioning Russian oil and gas and gradually pushing them out of their markets (you know, to gain “energy independence” as they have been told to do by the Americans from both sides)…
As of right now, Russians are still selling what little they are allowed to sell but the EU vassals have just (ILLEGALLY) approved definitely to ban all Russian LNG by the end of this year and all Russian pipeline gas by the end of next year. And no exceptions allowed anymore.
I hope it’s all clear now, for both you and Mish.
Who bombed it? Is OBL still hiding out in Torah Borah?
So, the USA must jump to Russia’s tune? There is plenty of natural gas in Qatar. Every Iranian ship in or near the Straight must be sunk. Iran’s rocket launchers need to be destroyed, and apparently most have been. Another couple of days and they will be. If Russia says the world needs to cut off Ukraine, are you on your knees for that? Russia, China and Iran are on a mission to destroy the USA and the West. That’s why this war is essential.
You seem to have a reading comprehension issue in addition to your TWS.
Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that even if the conflict ended immediately, it would take the country “weeks to months” to return to a normal cycle of deliveries.
And he or some other Gulf Minister claimed that the Global economy is going to be shattered because of this conflict.
//Russia, China and Iran are on a mission to destroy the USA and the West. That’s //why this war is essential.
look cnn/bbc/cia bot!
mo1ron… !!
go to library and politely ask for book called =500 yeas of western imperialism= or how Spain/French/British/USA/etc built empires all over the world
====
you know w/ stalin/mao/etc WORLD DID NOT START IN 20th century.
btw mor111on. communism also was invented in west, by western people
you would know if ever attended 8th hist. lessons in school
get lost uneducated peasant from Wisconsin!
alx
alx,
Please stop insulting the “uneducated peasants from Wisconsin!”
=======
it is paraphrase from movie DOGMA!
all insults are taken from good american movies!
i am big fan of !
alx
ps
i apologise for any harm! :))))
If Russia says the world needs to cut off Ukraine
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Ukraine was part of Russia long time ago before Mayflower even sailed down n. America
you would know if read a hist book!
I hand you this summons for a 1st degree violation of Poe’s Law.
Stay safe out there. And keep posting.
Poor Europeons.
Curious Russia has not done this earlier in a Defacto war with Nato via Ukraine proxy.
It is interesting. Russia has kept pumping oil and shipping gas to NATO while they wared against them. Why now? Perhaps then wouldn’t have inflicted the EU any pain, as they could turn to the gulf, but now the gulf is not flowing and there would be pain.
“It is interesting. Russia has kept pumping oil and shipping gas to NATO while they wared against them.”
The exact same thing the USSR kept doing throughout the Cold War, even at its lowest points. Russia has ALWAYS been the most reliable commercial partner.
“Why now?”
Because the EU retards have just (ILLEGALLY) approved definitely to ban all Russian LNG by the end of this year and all Russian pipeline gas by the end of next year. And no exceptions allowed anymore.
There are a lot of things that Russia could and should have done earlier and most of them they have still not done. The reason is only one: Putin.
As like everything else the Western propaganda brainwashes the masses with, he is the exact opposite of how he is depicted. He is going to be the last “soft”, legalistic, pro-West, pro-Israel, “liberal” Russian president for a long while.
Enjoy it while it lasts…
“Europeans have always lavished more respect upon conquerors than upon lawgivers”
Wait a week when the blood starts to leak out past the screen of prpaganda
And the bloodletting from the stock market to go along with it.
Let’s look at the furture(s). NYMEX contracts -91.27
May – $87.85
June – $82.56
July -$78.20
The future looks much lower than today. People have put their money on a short war.
and futures TRADED 50 % lower just 2 weeks ago
they must be smart!
Are you running a calendar spread?
=People have put their money on a short war.
it is not faith. WORLD WIDE DEPRESSION IN 1 MONTH W/ oil trading around 90*100$
look at major indexes charts..
it is air down here . no support!!
The Chief Pedophile of the United States does not make any demands. The Mossad tells him what to do and like a neutered dog, he does it.
This is fine. Europeans are mostly cold weather people, right? They can bundle up.
There is no such thing as “too cold” there is only inadequate clothing.