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Four Mideast Oil Producers Discuss Force Majeure to Withdraw from US Contracts

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar discuss canceling US investment commitments.

Financial Times

Financial Times (paywall): Gulf states could review overseas investments to ease financial strains caused by Iran war

Not the end of the US empire, but the Mideast producers are not happy being dragged into a Trump and Israel sponsored war.

Reuters: Gulf states could review investments due to financial strains caused by Iran war, FT reports

Gulf states could start ​to review their overseas investments and future ‌commitments as they consider options to ease the pressure on their budgets following the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, the Financial Times ​reported on Thursday.

A Gulf official told the ​newspaper the conflict that has engulfed the region ⁠could have an effect on anything from investment ​pledges to foreign states or companies, sports sponsorships, contracts ​with businesses and investors, or sales of holdings, especially if the war and related expenses continue at the same pace.

Reuters could ​not immediately verify the report. FT did not ​disclose the name or the position of the official.

For decades, ‌the ⁠Gulf’s rise rested on two core assumptions: that its rapidly growing cities offered safe haven in an unstable region and that vast wealth from uninterrupted energy ​exports would ​keep flowing. ⁠Recent events have shaken both pillars at once.

“A number of Gulf countries have ​begun an internal review to determine whether ​force ⁠majeure clauses can be invoked in current contracts, while also reviewing current and future investment commitments in order ⁠to ​alleviate some of the anticipated economic ​strain from the current war,” a Gulf official told FT.

Bahrain Plans to Withdraw from US Bilateral Treaty

Force Majeure South Korea

Force Majeure Poland

Can Trump Really Defend All Tankers in the Persian Gulf?

The Wall Street Journal asks Can Trump Really Defend All Tankers in the Persian Gulf?

The U.S. lacks Navy ships nearby to keep oil flowing through the vital waterway, experts say

Zero Attempts

Russia Benefits

Pentagon Races to Secure Money for Iran Operations, Munitions

The Wall Street Journal reports Pentagon Races to Secure Money for Iran Operations, Munitions

Pentagon officials are drawing up plans to replenish U.S. munitions expended fighting Iran over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter, a step in the Trump administration’s efforts to sharply increase the number of missiles manufactured each year.

Lawmakers in Congress and defense industry officials are expecting a funding request from the Pentagon to pay for costs associated with the war. The new funding would support the purchase of Patriot, Tomahawk and Thaad missile systems, which have been in heavy use since the U.S. and Israel began their strikes, the people said.

Recent fighting in the Middle East has burned through stockpiles for some of those weapons. That has added a new challenge for the Defense Department, which is wrestling with how to pay for a war with an indefinite end date. It also is facing an industrial base that was already stretched to meet current demand and potential threats from China.

As Fast As We Can

Trump administration officials have spent months pressuring big defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and RTX to triple or quadruple their annual production of their most advanced missiles.

The Pentagon launched an effort last year to accelerate production of missiles and other equipment to boost thin domestic stockpiles. Officials in June summoned more than a dozen top weapons makers to urge them to invest early in production increases. Steve Feinberg, the deputy defense secretary, has held weekly calls with some company chief executives for several months to drive the point home.

Company executives have responded with new investments but warned that production isn’t as simple as building more factories. The asked-for production boosts depend on smaller contractors deeper within the supply chain.

“We’ve been working this problem set on munitions supply long before this conflict,” Michael Duffey, the Pentagon’s top official for procuring missiles and other weapons, said in a House committee hearing Wednesday. “Knowledge of our supply wouldn’t make me go faster. We’re going as fast as we possibly can.”

The White House summoned top defense-industry executives from companies including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and RTX to a meeting on Friday, said people familiar with the plans.

Ah Yes, the Supply Chain

Q: What have Trump’s tariffs done to that?
A: China responded by cutting its exports of rare earth minerals needed for smart phones, magnets, and military equipment.

China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains

The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains

Q2: What do the new restrictions mean for the defense and semiconductor industries?

A2: Rare earths are crucial for various defense technologies, including F-35 fighter jets, Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. The United States is already struggling to keep pace in the production of these systems. Meanwhile, China is rapidly scaling up its munitions manufacturing capacity and acquiring advanced weapons platforms and equipment at a rate estimated to be five to six times faster than that of the United States.

The newly announced restrictions represent China’s most consequential measures to date targeting the defense sector. Under the new rules, starting December 1, 2025, companies with any affiliation to foreign militaries—including those of the United States—will be largely denied export licenses. 

Trump on Truth Social “Unlimited Supply of Weapons

Truth Social: The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better – As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought “forever,” and very successfully, using just these supplies (which are better than other countries finest arms!). At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be. Much additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries. Sleepy Joe Biden spent all of his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to P.T. Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine – Hundreds of Billions of Dollars worth – And, while he gave so much of the super high end away (FREE!), he didn’t bother to replace it. Fortunately, I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

“The U.S. military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and weapons stockpiles to achieve the goals of Operation Epic Fury laid out by President Trump—and beyond,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Question of the Day

Q: If we have an unlimited supply, why is Trump summoning Boeing, Lockheed Martin and RTX to a meeting on Friday?
A: In TrumpWordTM it’s possible to have more weapons than we need and still need more.

Q: How much will this cost?
A: At least another $500 billion

In January Trump pledged the next defense budget would reach $1.5 trillion, a roughly $500 billion increase from current levels.

Q: How long will the war last?
A: It was supposed to be over in a few days. Hegseth is now discussing 8 weeks, but who knows? That could be purposely high to enable bragging if it only takes 6 weeks. Then again perhaps it takes 6 months.

Q: What about troops on the ground?
A: Hegseth says that’s possible. However, Trump is betting on the Kurds.

Q: How likely can the Kurds overthrow the Iranian governement.
A: Roughly 0.00 percent. The Kurds issued a statement “After what happened to us in Syria, we refuse to be used as pawns by global powers again.”

Q: So things are going spectacularly well?
A: Yes, for Russia and those who invested for perpetual war.

Related Posts

March 4, 2026: Strait of Hormuz Oil Bottleneck, Crude Jumps, Tanker Costs Soar 900 Percent

Trump says prices will come back down. OK when?

March 5, 2026: Gasoline Prices Jump 27 Cents in a Week. Trump Looks for Remedies

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly 27 cents since last week to $3.25. 

March 5, 2026: Trump Wants Role in Picking Iran’s Next Leader. Questions Abound

OK, how is this supposed to work?
[Also see the official Kurdish response]

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182 Comments
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Lee M
Lee M
3 months ago

So basically this would be a good time for China to take back Taiwan.

Webej
Webej
3 months ago

How long?

Remember the greatest ever was going to conclude the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
But the US is still involved up to its neck in prosecuting the war against Russia.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago

Margin requirements were reduced by 22% for silver and 8% for gold this morning.

This allows all of the traders, banks and hedgers that were able to reduce their positions during last weeks rout to re-position on the long side.

Eligible for delivery silver at the COMEX is down to 81 million ounces and a high percentage of march contract holders have already stood for delivery. About 45 million ounces are spoken for of that 81 million as 6 million were delivered yesterday.

The COMEX has not received new inventory for three weeks now and with the Mexican Cartel wars considerable amounts are shut in at the refineries until transportation is safe again. I expect inventory to hit the COMEX soon as long as China has not made higher than market offers to obtain actual physical metal.

Oil is up another $9.00 today and that is horrific for global economies.

Expect another credit downgrade for US debt given the insane war spending and $9 trillion of debt to be refinanced at higher rates this year.

What can not be sustained, will not be sustained…

Mike
Mike
3 months ago

ZH: Iran’s Financial Hub, The UAE, May Freeze Billions In Assets Over Retaliatory Strikes

Friday, Mar 06, 2026 – 10:40 AM

The United Arab Emirates is pissed after Iran targeted Dubai and other US allies with over 1,000 drones and missiles in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks over the last week – and is now weighing freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, according to the WSJ, citing people familiar with the discussions. If that happens, it could sever one of Tehran’s most vital economic lifelines

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Mike

That would be the UAE committing economic suicide. If your money not safe there, what do they have?

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
3 months ago

On brand for Operation Epstein Fury: US investigators believe US strike responsible for strike on Iranian girls’ school https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/06/us-investigators-believe-strike-on-iranian-girls-school-likely-carried-out-by-us-forces

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Phil in CT

They didn’t blame the Russians? That’s weird.

Flavia
Flavia
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

A double-tap strike on a school…..Hedgseth wants to know who ordered it.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
3 months ago
Reply to  Flavia

… so he can promote them
Young girls are a threat, Trump could molest them and then who knows where you end up

DonS
DonS
3 months ago
Reply to  Phil in CT

Dream on. Please remember there was undisputed evidence all over a blue dress that President Slick Willie was face fucking the interns in the White House… not Biden, not Thump. But President Slick Willie gained in the DNC polls, and the DNC like the author have spent decades projecting the reality of Slick Willies sexual attacks on Gov Employees on any suspected dissenters without any evidence.

Greg
Greg
3 months ago

For Trump & all other Americans that think Putin is their friend & some sort of True Christian:
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2029882946564280749

Friends don’t give your enemy satellite targeting info to kill your troops.

Last edited 3 months ago by Greg
Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Greg

So? We’ve been not only giving intel to Ukraine but actually firing missiles into Russia. Now that we’ve attacked Iran – which didn’t do anything to us – why shouldn’t Russia help Iran – especially since we’re trying to cause trouble in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, etc. it’s not exactly Christian of us to bomb schoolgirls.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

In the Christian world

“There’s a fine line between Saturday Night and Sunday Morning”

Jimmie Buffett…

Greg
Greg
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Okie
I can’t argue with MAGA logic.

Last edited 3 months ago by Greg
threeblindmice
threeblindmice
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Yeah seems like people get very mad when the US enters an illegal and immoral war of choice and the target of said war (and their friends) fight back. Don’t these war targets know better than to fight back?

Flavia
Flavia
3 months ago
Reply to  Greg

The whole world wants the US out of the ME.
Countries will band together to make that happen.

Greg
Greg
3 months ago
Reply to  Flavia

Absolutely!
I suspect the corrupt Gulf states will make some kind of deal with Iran & China.

njbr
njbr
3 months ago

Afghan saying

“You may have the watches but we have the time”

Qatari oil minister predicts oil above $150 in another week

Last edited 3 months ago by njbr
Mike
Mike
3 months ago

NO1 posting at Gold & Geopolitics: South Korea down to 8 days of LNG & Pentagon scrambling for analysts expecting requiring 6 months out.

MisFitKid
MisFitKid
3 months ago

I believe it has been said before.
But now is a good time to
Claim victory and walk away….

Kurticus Maximus
Kurticus Maximus
3 months ago
Reply to  MisFitKid

there is no eject button. To walk away without opening the straight? That wouldnt look good. USA is going to have to leave the middle east with its bases is only way out

dtj
dtj
3 months ago

U.S. financial markets are finally behaving rationally. WTI oil up 10%. Brent sailed right past $90 an hour ago and is up to $91.53 currently.

Bitcoin down 4%. Dow down 820 points.

Trump will rescue the markets by announcing another crazy idea. Like he will personally escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz to guarantee their safe passage.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  dtj

Qatar to stop production “in days” due to lack of storage.

The profits man….the profits….

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago

Exclusive: Defense executives plan to meet at White House as strikes on Iran diminish stockpiles
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/defense-executives-plan-meet-white-house-strikes-iran-diminish-stockpiles-2026-03-04/

Definitely something you do when you’re NOT running out of ammo

But hey, War GDP boost — paging Paul Krugman

Last edited 3 months ago by Joe Penny
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago

…over in days

….3 to 4 weeks

…100 days

…may last ’til September

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

The war may last til September but the global economy will not. Better stock up on rice and beans, rolling blackouts may spoil refrigerated food.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Still have my Covid rice and plenty of beans…do need some TP though, on the list for weekend shopping

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

I gave my giant box of powdered eggs to the food shelter when ICE was prowling our (Minneapolis) streets. Still have plenty of rice and beans.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Boy if only we had embraced renewable energies as part of national security

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

That would require thinking, foresight and planning, something this administration is incapable of due to lizard-like instant gratification impulses.

Buffalobob
Buffalobob
3 months ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

Imagine if we had listened to Jimmy Carter almost 50 years ago and declared the “moral equivalent of war for energy independence.”

Jimmy is looking better and better compared to the clowns we have elected since. The bar gets lower and lower every 4 years.

Lee M
Lee M
3 months ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

I guess we’ll have to now

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

For sure if you live in Europe. None of that will come to America.

Derecho
Derecho
3 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

2 weeks to flatten the curve

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago

Captain Tiny Mushroom has no way out. Can’t someone please save him? After all he’s done for us out of the kindness of his heart?

Miran is going to come out for 50bps cuts for a while now

Avery2
Avery2
3 months ago

Mish / commentors all good stuff. Does any of that matter to Bebe?

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Avery2

All he wants is Tehran to look like Gaza City. He thinks Iran will be neutered. He is wrong.

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
3 months ago
Reply to  Avery2

No he goes on trial when peace is achieved

Naphtali
Naphtali
3 months ago

Facing economic and political disaster coupled with a possible defeat, the real threat of the use of nuclear weapons is unfortunately in the hands of two men- Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Not a pleasant thought.

dtj
dtj
3 months ago
Reply to  Naphtali

It’s probably going to happen. Only question is whether the U.S. or Israel will be the one to do the dirty deed.

Flavia
Flavia
3 months ago
Reply to  dtj

The radiation will harm you – who launched it will be irrelevant.

Derecho
Derecho
3 months ago
Reply to  dtj

So an Iranian strike on the Dimona reactor would be preemptive.

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 months ago
Reply to  Naphtali

Macron recently announced France will be expanding its nuclear arsenal, because it is important that France be feared. Are we on the verge of WWIII?

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago

Non Farm payrolls -93k!
Labor participation 62 percent!

And all this before this stupid Iran war.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

And yet the 10 year yield has not retrenched yesterday’s rise. 4.17% now. Oil / gas price continuing to rise is finally becoming indisputable.

Albert
Albert
3 months ago

Watching Hegseth talk about the war feels like SNL has taken over the Department of Defense. In particular, his bragging that killing more than a hundred Iranian school girls from the air signals that the US no longer fights „politically correct“ wars was chilling. Nobody should be surprised if the Iranian regime manages to dig in for the long haul if they are up against cartoon characters like Hegseth.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago
Reply to  Albert

Trumps actions are only governed by his morals.

This has to be one of the most frightening utterances ever revealed by a president that is without doubt ~ amoral.

As for Hegseth? He sounds like a Fox News spokesmodel cheerleading for his favorite WWF wrestler.

RonJ
RonJ
3 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

It was Truman who dropped the A bomb on the civilian cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Other Japanese civilian cities were firebombed. McNamera later said that if Japan had won the war, he himself would have been tried as a war criminal.

AP Hill
AP Hill
3 months ago

If you don’t know where you’re going, you might wind up someplace else — Yogi Berra on Trump’s double plus ungood war on Iran.

njbr
njbr
3 months ago

My guess is that the first step to getting Trump to approve was to have him abandon his “affordability” push, where it went from a concern, to a “hoax”. We can put the initial green-light planning stage at that point

It became an easy slide then for the pushers of the war.

“Any and all pain is temporary and justifiable. Stuff happens”

njbr
njbr
3 months ago

gosh, transform this into a land war and it’ll be the perfection of stupidity

just one more step!

njbr
njbr
3 months ago

Just 11 days ago, headline

“Pentagon struggles to find ways to spend extra $500 billion”

eff them, spend that $500bil first

Last edited 3 months ago by njbr
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago

Iran doesn’t have to fight the US head-to-head, all they need to do is go after the neighboring oil infrastructure — especially pipelines. They’ve already taken out 30% of Israel’s daily pipeline inflows. I’m assuming they’ve thought of this beforehand and have “sleeper cells” with the required munitions or flying lawnmowers — don’t need much — to wreak havoc.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny
Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago
Reply to  Joe Penny

Iran destroyed all three billion dollar radar sistema in the region. The U.S. are blind. And this is all that matters.

Derecho
Derecho
3 months ago
Reply to  Augustine

RIP THAAD

Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago
Reply to  Derecho

That should save the US millions in THAAD missiles being shot a decoys!

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago

Usual excellent (8 min) facts based military analysis by Brandon Weichert (Trump and Pigsbreth no likey this guy I bet)

https://rumble.com/v76oyxa-weichert.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp_a

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago

F1 racing schedule is also threatened by BiBi and Trumps pesky war!

The Australian kick off of the F1 season is this weekend in Melbourne, Australia and many of the sponsors were unable to leave for the race because of the airspace closures. Next week is Shanghai, then Suzuka in Japan and the Bahrain race weekend starts on April 10th.

Let’s get this war wrapped up so we can go racing without all these silly bombs going off! /Sarc

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago

WTI crude oil is at $83 per barrel and trading is brisk. Rising prices have not been able to get shipments moving through Hormuz. With the importance of crude shipments to the world and the importance of oil sales by affected Middle East countries, you would think the US and Israel would prioritize safe passage.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

As I said before, I expected this conflict to last only 1-2 weeks, because anything else was globally unacceptable. And the countries of the world would have to do “something “ to fix this problem; but I did not know what that “something “ was.

Something has to be done to get the oil and LNG flowing again; otherwise the global economy suffers a devastating blow. It’s only been one week and things are falling apart all around the globe already.

The first signs of that “something” are now appearing. The clock is ticking.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

What are those first signs of something?

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

How about this…a 16% drop in Korean stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWY/

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

I meant the something that Papa thinks will (or can) be done to open the Straight of Hormuz. I can’t see how it can be done.

Doug78
Doug78
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

He expects Trump to capitulate and start negotiating but he won’t.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Trump’s painted himself into a bad corner. If he backs down, he’ll be humiliated in front of the world and boost Iran’s ego to the moon.

If Trump double’s down on bombings, he will escalate the mess with oil and crash the global economy and be hated by the world.

lose-lose.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Crashing the world economy can be a win for Trump if the US economy itself comes out in the best shape.

That would be the very definition of ‘American First’

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Lol, you really don’t know how the world works do you. Are you an alien from Orion?

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Sure makes sense. Our depression is not nearly as bad as your depression, na na na na na NA.
Texas Tim65 You are fucking insane, if you’re serious.

Mike
Mike
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Just needs to tone things down for the next 7 weeks of his police action no more shock & awe. Impact hits the world a lot harder than the USA in the short term. Russia has USA okay to sell oil to india.

Leave Israel & AIPEC to twist arms in Congress & Senate to approve the war. If they don’t gracefully backing out double down on rhetoric message to save lives & protect USA interests preventing another Pearl Harbor because Israel was going to attack Iran & USA. Iran’s attacks almost immediate (hours), continuous & effectively. Needs to continue investigating suspicious bombings like the girl school tragedy & similar.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Doug78

Iran already rejected a ceasefire (proffered through the Italians) on day 1. There’s no guarantee they’re even willing to negotiate.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

The first signs are that the administration is talking about the issue and throwing out ideas as prices rise:

Talk of insuring shippers
Talk of the navy to escort ships
Allowing India to buy Russian oil (probably initiated by India)
Iran saying they won’t target ships with oil heading to China (probably initiated by China)
Discussing intervening in Futures Markets
Saying they have other options to use

Peace
Peace
3 months ago

In the mean time,
Trump gave ultimatum to Iranians to lay down their weapons.

I wonder who is going to collect their weapons after they lay down.

Last edited 3 months ago by Peace
Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Peace

All that does is allow IDF easier pot shots to the back of the head of the unarmed. See: Gaza

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago
Reply to  Peace

While they are preparing IED’s all over the country waiting for their opportunity to kill the great Satan’s warriors.

drodyssey
drodyssey
3 months ago

Foreign Policy Crisis Management – the four stages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYHwgQLvjqs

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago

So, on top of PAYING FOR ALL OF THE WARS and TERROR OPS, the USA also decides when and if the Russians can sell oil to whomever?

WTF? This headline INFERS that RUSSIA BOWS TO AMERICA FOR PERMISSION to do it.

Anyone else “calling bullshit” on this one?

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago

The US is not paying for the wars. It is all being put on the credit card.

Russian, Venezuelan, and Iranian tankers have been seized by the US under the sanctions. Some would call it piracy.

Leaving the piracy aside. The US spend on this war is a billion dollars per day. $130 billion in Tariffs need to be returned on the credit card. $9 trillion of US debt needs to be refinanced at ever increasing yields to a world that is rationally questioning Trumps sanity.

Interest on the credit card is going up as our credibility falls. Is another downgrade of the US credit rating about to happen?

The real take away is the dilution of the dollar and other fiat currencies.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

Silver remains in backwardation in Singapore and is trading physical at a $12 premium ($96) to US spot silver paper at $84.

Got Gold/silver? Mining stocks were monkey hammered and are worth watching.

Felix Hartmann
Felix Hartmann
3 months ago

Mike, do you realise what this means? Please write an article about what you think is likely of all the gulf states cancel their oil and gas contracts due to force majeure!

In my eyes this would be the end of our financial system. And that in consequence would be the end of modern world as it would stop trade.

Gulf states declaring force majeure breaks future market.
Future market being broken means commodity market broken with huge defaults.
The future market bankrupted would bring down hedge funds and in consequence a lot of other funds. The cascade will bring an immediate stop to global trade…
I don’t think any government intervention can stop the process.

And yeah the cascade will be the end of the modern world as we know it and will lead rather abruptly to a great mass extinction back to sustainable population numbers without any modern technology. 100 Mio worldwide? Just like the club of Rome predicted but way more violent down curve.

Felix Hartmann
Felix Hartmann
3 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

Yes so far it’s only LNG by Qatar. But it’s more and more places calling force majeure and if all gulf states call it I guess it would be game over. They hold the actual leverage in the war now.

Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago
Reply to  Felix Hartmann

Whining is not leverage. The Arab states will savor Anglo-Saxon Perfidious Albion at its best.

Felix Hartmann
Felix Hartmann
3 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/the-gulf/artc-qatar-energy-minister-warns-middle-east-war-could-push-oil-to-150?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The energy minister of Qatar expects all gulf countries to call force majeure it the situation isn’t resolved within days…

And this is about oil and gas deliveries not commitments

Last edited 3 months ago by Felix Hartmann
Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

It would be interesting to ponder the impact of the U.S., as usual, reneging on their side of the petrodollar deal, security. Especially when the personnel is absconded in hotels when the bases are threatened and ships scuttle away when shot back at.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Felix Hartmann

Pfffttt…..Trump’s boss Bibi thought this all through beforehand….don’t worry

Onward to the third temple!!!

Doug78
Doug78
3 months ago
Reply to  Felix Hartmann

Physical deliveries on futures contracts are very rare to begin with so trading will continue. Heges will change somewhat but there will not be a financial contagion. Of course some will be caught on the wrong side but that’s life. The big problem is the increase in oil prices and whether it holds or not depends on the course of the war. In any case the futures market will be broken. Let’s be honest here. There was plenty of warnings and lots of actors already had their eyes on it. Half the Navy and Air Force moving to the Gulf is hard to miss.

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 months ago
Reply to  Felix Hartmann

Supply disruption caused by war is the very heart of force majeure clauses in contracts. If the war makes it difficult to deliver, of course they will use force majeure as the reason for delay, and if the contractual language allows it, possibly cancel the contracts altogether.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

At least Trump is not Biden!

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago

BUT, BUT: you are calling out POLITICS as a UNIPARTY, so your point is inconsistent to your Handle.

The Uniparty contains ANY AND ALL POLITICIANS and we all know that when a Politician’s lips are moving then they are LYING!

Even when they tell a rare truth, I am so tainted that I cannot believe ANYTHING THAT THEY SAY.

Thus, I agree with “UNI-PARTY” — but I am totally inclusive with my thought process.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

>. your point is inconsistent to your Handle.

Yeah, just being silly. I know it’s the wrong time for jokes. Just some gallows humor.

I’ve been emotionally invested in peace, stopping these aggressive elective wars, for decades. I need a fucking laugh now and then. Hope people forgive me. This second term of Trump has simultaneously been epicly tragic and bigly comedic.

A deranged evil Baron von Munchausen rules the west, talks nonsense, and hires the least competent apes the world has seen since the days of syphilitic kings.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago

Look up Poe’s Law

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

Ha! Yes, I know that one. Indeed, I was just pulled over and ticketed for violating it. 🙂

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

lol… I am hoisted on my own petard.

I used the silent sarc tag. Now I don’t know whether the upvotes are from Trumptards or from people who understood the mockery. Probably a mix.

Last edited 3 months ago by most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago

Congrats on imitating AI Slop, very convincing!

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago

Your cognitive dissonance has deafened you

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago

Mish, please read and discuss. Really the best analysis I have seen of the consequences of the Demon-Emperor Trumps War on Humanity. From atop The Golden Epstein Throne, he commands the Legions of Evil to go forth, and unleashes the four Horsemen of The Apocalypse. I’m not really kidding, it’s about that bad.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/systemic-risk-12-order-cascading-analysis-zero-flow-strait-hormuz-closure

tl:dr – best case, total catastrophe, more likely worst case WWIII, global Depression, mass starvation and the extinction of humanity. Might be the best choice.

Felix Hartmann
Felix Hartmann
3 months ago
Reply to  Fubar111111

While I see the process unfolding a bit different the end result is the same. If all gulf states fall force majeure on their contracts, it will break the futures market, paper holdings won’t be worth anything anymore and this will decrease global trade to it’s bones.
We are having a rather big chance of this unfolding now. Straight of Hormuz not reopening soon and there doesn’t even need to be ww3 to stop modernity. Very fee countries are even somewhat able to survive without global trade. Maybe Russia together with China can survive it? I somewhat doubt so that they can move/allocate fast enough. It’s surely game over for Europe, north Africa, middle east, Indian subcontinent and Island states…

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago
Reply to  Felix Hartmann

Its not about futures contracts, you obviously didnt even read it.

cambeiu
cambeiu
3 months ago
Reply to  Fubar111111

The morons at ZH finally realized that they have been duped. Took them what, just 10 years?

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago
Reply to  cambeiu

They are still Hard R-ing (“joggers”) and saying “the Juice” runs the world, diddling themselves versus the auto-moderator bot filtering for the most base of human insults. Worth keeping an eye on the insane asylum at times.

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago
Reply to  cambeiu

obviously you didnt even read it, it was not written by ZH, they re-posted the Executive Summary of a very long exhaustively detailed Substack post by some financial analyst I never heard of before.

He no doubt used some AI to write this, 1 man on a keyboard could not put this together in a couple of days. None of that matters, the only thing, is the analysis sound? From my reading, it looks very solid and highly probable.

Far easier for you to post a snarky comment though, than take the time to actually read it, I guess.Too many big words there, huh?

ZH (been reading since it started) has always been years ahead of the curve, and phenomenally accurate in their predictions, as I have observed over those years. They don’t get everything right, but who does? You read , you judge, you don’t accept what they or anyone says blindly, do you?

Neal
Neal
3 months ago

So Poland is whining about not getting gas from Qatar. Sucks when you aided the destruction of gas pipelines from Russia

CJW
CJW
3 months ago

I wonder if Trump ever gets tired of being wrong?

I know I’m tired of it.

Most people are not tired of winning yet. Can we start that soon?

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
3 months ago
Reply to  CJW

As long as the losers that voted for Trump are OK with continuing to lose, nothing will change.

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Throw in Biden voters, too, because they supported the man who could no longer deduce.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

Yes…

TPTB denied Biden condition until after the convention, so they could falsely justify nominating Kamala and thus handing the crown to Don.

randocalrissian
randocalrissian
3 months ago

Why not got back to Carter? There’s lots of whataboutism available for you.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

Carter was the last POTUS with a heart.

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago
Reply to  CJW

Clever, CJW. “Winning, from my Wife’s Uncle’s perspective, included him CHEATING AT CARDS. He actually fucked us out of money and when I called him out on it, he refused to pay it back.

So, while he was not looking, I did something to his car that led to its complete break-down.

WHAM, fucker!

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago

So now we know it’s not just you, it’s your whole family. Sick MFer’s.

J_Schneider
J_Schneider
3 months ago

Trump is gambling the empire. He behaves as if he sits in his own casino in Atlantic City where he can’t lose.

If things go wrong (50% chance or more ?)

  • Precious missile interceptors SM-6 used by US Navy and THAAD interceptors will be spent with no way to replace them in short time.
  • But there is no ballistic missile treaty with Russia in place anymore.
  • Bakshish monarchies in the Guilf are now protecting US bases there. Why did they paid trillions of USD for protection? Will they pay in the future or will they ask Russia and China?
  • If China is the only one who is able to negotiate with Iran which ships may pass through Hormuz Strait then it may ask that all related payments go in yuan. Bye bye pedodollar.
  • Trump has asked all Americans to leave the area. Americans are there to do business. Will they come back? If not, the business is gone.
  • Financial commitments from bakshish monarchies and weapon contracts – gone.
  • Bakshish monarchies will go from net savers to net sellers of financial assets within 2 weeks.
  • At the same time food will run out in small petrostates in the Gulf. Revolutions coming?
  • Big AI plans in the Gulf – gone. Who would put a single dollar in that area?
  • What about US allies Japan, RoK, Taiwan ? They need energy from the Gulf, they need THAADs, US Navy anti-ballistic interceptors and Patriots to protect them.

China now looks like the US in 1914-1916 – trading with everybody and pocketing tons of money from the trade, getting stronger and stronger.

The US looks more and more like United Kondom in May 1940 under Churchill – trigger happy with naked butt.

What if Xi tells Trump in April – Remove ALL tariffs or you get no rare earth minerals and dual use components?

At the end Obama was right, Trump is national security risk. Betting the house on Zero big win is no strategy, it is hazard.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

Excellent synopsis.

moparsully
moparsully
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

with no mention of water, I guess they can drink each other’s piss for now but what happens when the piss runs dry

Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago
Reply to  moparsully

Desalinization plants have been hit. Not sure how badly the water supply situation is.

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

Stop giving us the positive spin

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago
Reply to  Fubar111111

Hahaha! Nice!

I’m giggling from this and my own “At least Trump is not Biden!” line above, where like you I deadpanned by omitting the sarc tag.

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago

TRUMP IS LIKE BIDEN, in that he harms us all, but unlike Biden: HE KNOWS what he is doing.

most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
most of you voted for the uniparty all your lives
3 months ago

Agree.

Well, Biden understood his thuggery for most of his life. Except at the end.

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago
Reply to  Fubar111111

LOL

David Heartland
David Heartland
3 months ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

Allow me to correct your phrase:

“Trump is gambling the empire. He behaves as if he sits in his own casino in Atlantic City where he can’t lose.”

CORRECTED:

ALL politicians gamble with the empire. THEY behave as if they sit in their own casino’s in Atlantic City where they can’t lose OUR MONEY.”

Mike
Mike
3 months ago
Reply to  J_Schneider

Not to worry Israel will sink those China bound tankers if no one else does. Tough to manufacture without energy.

Last edited 3 months ago by Mike
Igor
Igor
3 months ago

I hope Qatar gov will not cross a line and demand return of gifted plane. That could trigger Trump to extend bombing into another country

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
3 months ago
Reply to  Igor

Bahahahahha!

Art
Art
3 months ago

More Schrödinger Trump…..

LM2020
LM2020
3 months ago

So the World Cup is scheduled for the US in less than 3 months, the next Olympics in 2 years. I wonder how that’s going to go. Everyone hates us and some groups will be out looking for revenge. It’s going to be quite interesting around here over the next few months.

Astroboy
Astroboy
3 months ago
Reply to  LM2020

Cancel the World Cup. Americans only tolerate soccer.

CJW
CJW
3 months ago
Reply to  LM2020

There is likely to be lots of fireworks for the 250th July 4th.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago

Uh Oh!

Somebody forgot to stockpile rare earths before starting another endless war?

I only know one leader stupid enough to do that!

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Frosty

lol. True. Even aside from processed rare earths, there were fifty ways this could go wrong and almost zero chance of it not going wrong. Only a dotard could fall for BiBi’s BS – or a convert.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

lol x 2

But what were the chances of it going wrong in all fifty ways, simultaneously.

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Or someone who desperately needed to get the Epstein coverup out of the media.

Augustine
Augustine
3 months ago

I hope that this way brings regime change speedily… to the White House.

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago
Reply to  Augustine

Regime change begins at home

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
3 months ago

What a post???? My mental capacity is equal to my push up capacity, and you blew it out at 27.

Jackula
Jackula
3 months ago

It would have been a good idea for Trump to have talked with Boeing, Lockheed Martin and RTX before he invaded…

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Jackula

Or listen to his own chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – Dan Caine – who, contrary to Trump’s assertions, told Trump that this war was a huge mistake.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

You do understand this is being directed out of Tel Aviv, right?

TEF
TEF
3 months ago

In 30 trading days, the question will be asked if the Epstein-elite class and their friends and family members sold the equity market within a few days of Epic Blunder. What will happen to the petrodollar if Arab states completely lose confidence in #47’s decision making?

The depleted interceptors are hitting less than 10% of their targets.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  TEF

Petrodollar isn’t going anywhere. There are no other real options.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Yet

Fubar111111
Fubar111111
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Sure. I am damn sure the ROW is now owrking overtime to fix that

I doubt most Americans have any idea how hated the USA is around the world now. On a scale of 1 to 100, that would be higher than infinity

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Bitcoin, “hold my beer…”

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Crypto especially not suited for it.

Can’t do millions of transactions involving trillions of dollars in a timely manner. Plus the float is too small (only a few million coins).

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago

The only thing more shameful than Trump starting this unnecessary, murderous war is that all Senate Republicans except Rand Paul voted to let it continue.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

I disagree, the most shameful thing are the idiots that voted for this fool. They all have blood on their hands and will reap what they sow.

This evil started with the original sin of enablement.

cambeiu
cambeiu
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Voted not once.
Not twice.
But three times. Three times!!!!
The people who did this are hopeless. Their cognitive capabilities are just not there.

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Very predictable. Republicans pose as not being as evil as Democrats, letting a handful of liberty minded candidates into their lower ranks, but then the always knife you in the back when it counts.

Frosty
Frosty
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Bingo!

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Were in it now. Ive been debating with myself what would be worse. Walk away or stay in and if so how long. Lots of bad outcomes whichever way it goes.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

We are pot committed now to regime change.

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

We will soon be down to the felt, and the river card kills us.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Rogerroger

Walk away ASAP. The longer it goes on, the more people die. There’s no way on God’s green earth the US can dictate who runs Iran.

Joe Penny
Joe Penny
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Bibi would disagree

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

They did it once, I’m sure Trump is being told he can do it again.

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Rand Paul never votes against Trump in any close vote.

Anthony
Anthony
3 months ago

could this president be more incompetent and destructive?? Maybe this will finally wake him up. or he’ll invade the gulf countries. who knows with this maniac

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago
Reply to  Anthony

That’s the story of his entire life. I don’t expect that to ever change.

Phil in CT
Phil in CT
3 months ago
Reply to  Anthony

He’s not sleeping, he’s stupid.
Joe Biden was sleepy and he never attacked Iran without a plan.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago
Reply to  Phil in CT

I’ll credit Biden for that, and I’ll also never criticize him for getting out of Afghanistan. Trump had four years to do it and he didn’t. I’ll never nitpick how it happened. Also Biden knew intuitively that there is a point beyond which pushing the Russians could lead to nuclear war. The Europeons may only find that out the hard way.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago

One important lesson to be learned from stopping 20% of world oil and LNG flows, is how crucial oil and LNG are to the global economy, and how quickly things fall apart without that energy.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

$11.7 trillion in potential lost tourism. Who’s going to fly to Dubai for vacation anymore? Dubai is the new dead Las Vegas.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-travel-flights-cruise-hotels.html

Gong, 30, had her flight plans derailed as a result, and she told CNBC that she had to pay $1,600 to get to Shanghai, more than double the price of her original ticket.

She’s one of millions of travelers swept up in war and other conflicts from Iran to Mexico this year, problems that are threatening the global tourism industry that’s worth an estimated $11.7 trillion to the world’s economy, according to industry group World Travel & Tourism Council. It’s showing that people who are far from falling missiles, drone attacks and other geopolitical flashpoints aren’t immune to ripple effects.

Suzie Alcatrez
Suzie Alcatrez
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Hotels are 70% off and flights 50% off right now, very tempting….

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Vegas so desperate they are offering hotel rooms and drinks at par for Canadian tourists. So far it’s been working but says how bad things have gotten.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

They will get more desperate as high oil cost drive up airline ticket prices, only a matter of time before “fuel surcharges” kick in for everyone.

If you plan on traveling anywhere, better buy those tickets now.

Doug78
Doug78
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Disney World is offering discounts too. I don’t know if they are going as far as offering one-to-one for Canadians though but why not.

pokercat
pokercat
3 months ago
Reply to  Suzie Alcatrez

Just looked up my favorite hotel in Las Vegas for next week and they are sold out. Prices looked normal in other locations.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago

What!?!? No more “trillions” of investment in the US made by the greatest deal maker in the known universe because of a stupid war started by that same genius?

And why is there screaming in the White House if everything is going so well? Oh Mr. President, I can’t take any more of this winning!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15617463/Susie-Wiles-center-screaming-panic-inside-Trumps-White-House-Iran-war-sends-gas-soaring.html

Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other top officials, including a council led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, ‘are getting screamed at to find some good news‘, industry executives said.

Here’s some good news. Midterms are in 243 days and when dems win they will put an end to most of Trump’s agenda. He’ll be a lame duck.

Brutus Admirer
Brutus Admirer
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Yeah, but there’s the problem: The Dems are just as bad, maybe even worse, just without giving you false hope. Main difference is a few different snouts in the trough.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  Brutus Admirer
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 months ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

A lame duck domestically. So it means for 2 years he will have nothing to do but meddle in foreign affairs (ie military ventures).

Is that really what we want?

Quatloo
Quatloo
3 months ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

Why would Trump stop meddling in domestic affairs via Executive Orders? I see no reason he wouldn’t continue to do that. Congress can bring lawsuits that federal courts may rule on and eventually the Supreme Court will rule on in 6-9 months. As we have seen with tariffs, as soon as one is shut down, he will move to another legal theory to justify acting immediately and the clock for the courts to rule starts all over again.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago

I’m guessing that Modi called Trump and said he had to start buying Russian oil, as shipments from the Persian Gulf have now stopped. There are roughly 48 mb of Russian oil floating around in sanctioned tankers. That’s enough to make up for 2-3 days of shipments from the Gulf.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Next up will be US action in the futures markets to try to force prices down.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Well that’s coming at a time US markets are losing control of gold and silver markets. Oil may be next.

Sentient
Sentient
3 months ago

This war is he biggest and most obvious “own goal” in American history. The choices are to lose quickly or lose slowly.

Stoic
Stoic
3 months ago
Reply to  Sentient

Indeed – the words Hubris and Nemesis seem somewhat apposite.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
3 months ago

These guys are big AI investors as well.

PapaDave
PapaDave
3 months ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

Several data centers were hit by Iranian missiles as well. They build data centers wherever available energy is. This region is loaded with energy. Too bad about the constant war.

Maybe they will rethink data center location now to Norway, Iceland and Canada.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

Trump wants to invade those countries too.

TLS
TLS
3 months ago
Reply to  PapaDave

The UAE should have put their data centers next to Barakah nuclear power plant. They have 5600 MW sitting right there. Too bad they didn’t think that through. I also asked them why they didn’t use the excess thermal energy to desalinate water for the Al Dhanna region. Blank stares.

Steve L.
Steve L.
3 months ago

So, the Arab’s investment in a competitor to the PGA tour is not profitable? Boo Hoo.

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