It’s been a complete round trip in the last month.
The September rate forecast is from CME Fedwatch.
- Today: 66.2 percent
- Week Ago: 39.6 percent
- Month Ago: 67.0 percent
Welcome back to the reality that inflation is a problem.
October CME Probabilities
Two Hike Odds (September and October)
- Today: 19.1 percent
- Week Ago: 9.7 percent
- Month Ago: 20.8 percent
That’s another round trip. But I doubt that.
An October 28 would be a hike would be just six days before the November 3 midterm elections.
The Fed will not want to hike that close to the election.
That fact was a key point in my assessment Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September
It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI.
Click on link for further discussion of what ties the Fed’s hands, forcing a hike.
Also see my post from earlier today, Global Bond Market Rout Continues, Fed’s Barr Ponders Decisive Action
Everything now ties neatly together for a September hike.
Taco not likely to approve.
How do they plan to tackle price inflation caused by wars and oil prices with a rate hike? And Main Street? “Data” notwithstanding, it is not doing well. That calls for a rate cut, but my bet is that the Fed will make lots of hawkish sounds and jawboning while sitting tight…until after the midterms
Higher rate –> less borrowing –> less money circulating –> less bidding for goods and services –> lower inflation
Correct my errors pls
Your rate cut will just make inflation worse. I get that we can’t afford the public debt interest carry, but you’re smoking zines if you think that we are going to make our debt interest carry at all affordable by lowering rates. What is the primary benefit of lower rates that you foresee?
So for the end of this year we have on deck:
Surely all of these things at once will go smoothly and cooler heads will prevail because they did back in the 80s!
Oh and how can I forget! We’re now resorting to kiting checks with the national debt because Trump put a dancing monkey in charge of it.