Orders have been cancelled, but the primary impacts are not felt yet.
Waiting for the Ships
The Seattle Times reports Tariff Tit-for-Tat has Seattle Waiting for the Ships to Come In
Like many of his neighbors near the Seattle waterfront, Alex Smith keeps a close eye on the big container ships crossing Elliott Bay to and from the terminals at the Port of Seattle.
So when Smith, a retired marine components industry professional, noticed fewer vessels coming through starting in mid-April, he worried it was an “early warning system” for the effects of the widening U.S.-China trade dispute.
“It’s frightening, to tell you the truth,” Smith, 80, said of the possible economic costs as the two countries’ escalating tariffs have made trade much more expensive.
Fewer ships coming into the U.S. means companies can’t get components. Retailers and consumers can’t get products. Farmers and manufacturers lose foreign markets. “Everything stops,” Smith said.
“One of my fears is that the local trucking community is going to be the first to be impacted by these changes” in cargo volumes, said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer at the Northwest Seaport Alliance, which oversees marine cargo operations at both ports.
That forward buying continued in the first three months of this year. In January, February and March, the ports of Tacoma and Seattle handled nearly 666,000 inbound and outbound containers, a 24% jump from the same period in 2024, port data shows.
Data from the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound, an industry association, shows the number of arriving container ships berthing at Seattle and Tacoma terminals from April 1 to April 24 was down 12% compared with the same period in 2024. Arrivals of ships carrying automobiles in April was down 36%.
Similarly, the number of container vessels arriving or departing from Seattle and Tacoma between April 1 and April 15 was down around 27% compared with the first half of March and by around 24% from April 1-15, 2024, according to a Seattle-area marine services industry insider, who asked to remain anonymous because they weren’t authorized to speak for the company.
And Smith, the amateur ship-spotter, says the drop is pretty clear to anyone actually looking at Elliott Bay.
Already, many scheduled sailings by container vessels bound from other nations to U.S. ports, including Seattle and Tacoma, have been canceled or postponed. Often, U.S. importers are deciding they can’t afford to pay the tariffs.
Media accounts have reported a 30% decline in scheduled sailings out of China for the U.S., which the alliance’s Balaski says is “a fair estimate for what we’re going to see” in terms of impacts on alliance operations, which count on China for around 40% of imported volume.
That jibes with data from SONAR, a freight market data platform: from March 30 to April 21, ocean bookings for containers from international ports to Seattle or Tacoma fell around 29%.
Bookings into the two ports “took a big step down the week of March 30, and then it took another big step down, beginning April 20 and continuing to the present day,” said JP Hampstead, a strategic analyst at Firecrown Media, which owns the trade publication FreightWaves.
Because cargo vessels take several weeks to reach Seattle from Asia, the major effects of that missing cargo won’t materialize until mid-May, when the port expects volume to go “soft.”
But some early ripples have already arrived.
SwaddleDesigns, a Seattle-based baby clothes company that relies heavily on imports from China, paused a container shipment due this month after realizing the 145% tariff would add roughly $300,000 to the shipment’s original $200,000 cost, said Jeff Damir, chief operating officer.
“As a small business, we just don’t have that money sitting around,” Damir said.
Exporters are also feeling the chill of tariffs.
Seattle-Tacoma is one of the largest gateways for exports of hay and the largest for apples and frozen french fries. All are vulnerable to China’s retaliatory tariffs, which have made Chinese buyers less interested in U.S. goods.
“We’ve had exporters actually coming to our terminals to pick up containers of product that they’d already delivered to be exported to China and they’re not going to ship them” due to the Chinese tariffs, Balaski said. ”They’re just picking them up and taking them back and trying to find another home for them.”
Smith, for one, isn’t holding his breath. After years in manufacturing, he knows how global supply chains work and how hard they are to restart.
Even if the White House rolled back the tariffs tomorrow, it would take weeks or months before flow of goods returns to normal, he said.
“This pipeline has been shut off and it’s not like you can turn it back on and it starts up again in a day,” Smith said. “The pipeline is empty.”
Craig Fuller on Trucking
No growth for 7 years and about to collapse.
When Shortages Hit
Craig Fuller on CNBC Video
- Supply chain shortages will probably show up in late-June or July
- Consumers will really feel shortages during back-to-school season
- Ocean voyages, we are currently seeing Covid-like conditions at the extreme
- 500,000 jobs at risk due to lack of imports
The video is a good 2.5 minute play.
Massive Layoffs Coming
Truckers, Avoid LA
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History suggests Michigan will likely be hit the hardest.
April 25, 2025: Trump Tells Time Magazine He Has Made 200 Deals Already, Refused to Name Any
Check out this incredible interview with Time.
April 25, 2025: Consumers Have Bleak Outlook on the Economy, Inflation Expectations Surge
Inflation expectations are the highest since 1981. Stagflation anyone?
No one knows what Trump will do. So no one can rule out stagflation or asset bubble deflation, or anything in between.
This is called MAGA? I do not vote and I am non-partisan just like Mish. This is bullshit!
Not voting is a vote for the status quo so you’re getting what you asked for.
Enjoy!
The system here, like just about everywhere, was set up by the wealthy, to benefit the wealthy. To give the plebs the illusion of power. Your vote doesn’t count, has never counted and will never count. Vote or don’t vote. It makes very little difference. Government is the problem. Government operates to expand Government and it’s power. Government isn’t needed and never has been.
If voting made any difference “they” wouldn’t let us do it.
so the USA is now a Cargo Cult?
Truckers wanted to be out of work. They voted for Trump. Either they understood what they were voting for, or they are paying the stupid tax. Pick whichever you want. I empathize, but we warned all of those truckers who refused to listen.
I refused to listen to Harris’s Marxist word salads. I empathize with the people in Pacific Palisades, but most voted for the Democrat policies that resulted in such destruction of their community. Simply, people in both political parties vote against their self interest.
I hate to say it, but we would have been far better off under her leadership.
Had you listened to her instead of repeating what your information silo fed you, you may have learned that she was self made and well educated. She climbed the ladder on her own without daddy’s help… She also cleaned trumps clock in the debate and we would most likely be a growing nation under her leadership.
This bizarre tariff nonsense would not have happened and we would not have alienated Canada, Greenland and NATO nations among others.
Our military would be stronger and labor market well supplied.
As bad as all that transgender crap was, it was not worth having trump as our dictator…
Flack jacket is on! 😉
Kindly list Harris’ most significant leadership successes.
BTW, I don’t expect you to be able to do this as she wasn’t able to do it either.
No problem on this one:
Harris is a second generation immigrant from an accomplished, but not wealthy family whose academic achievements got her into Harvard where she graduated and went on to earn her law degree at Hastings.
She worked her way up and became Attorney General of California and then a U.S. Senator. Then Vice president of the U.S. with Joe Biden who righted our nation after trump face planted it with his mis-management of the economy and covid (said it was a hoax).
She absolutely butch slapped trump in the debates.
Now trump is systematically destroying our nations economic relationships and our economy (again).
Any further questions?
Debates? Where is William Jennings Bryan when we need him?
Wow, you are in a time warp or another dimension. Harris is not only stupid, but when she was in SF she was screwing the Mayor. IS THAT THE KIND OF SLUT you wanted for PRES?
As compared to Trump who screws porn stars and recommends grabbing women genitalia. I recall a civil action for rape too.
No word salad fan but Trump makes her appear saintly in comparison. And more trustworthy.
Just my 2cents.
You have a slut for president right now.
Worse than a slut by far! Trump is a narcissistic seditionist, an election denying felon, a rapist and wanna-be oligarch.
Trump is not a statesman or builder of nations or trade. Trump is a carnival politician. More of a WWF fantasy wrestler than leader.
Trump breaks treaties he negotiates and lies about pretty much everything. But like Manson, he has a cult following his every utterance.
And of course Fox News. the largest MSM company in the world which panders nonsense and lies to the uneducated and gullible.
I would laugh if his second term was not so threatening to the economic and social stability of our nation.
That is humorous at best. Trump has been through three wives and has spawned five spoiled brats. Trump was mentioned 54 times in the Epstein report and has multiple sexual partners. Even raped a porn star!
Harris has been married once and has two stepchildren.
LOL. 😉
So you complain about others when can’t get laid. Boo Hoo poor incel.
Might be the dumbest thing I’ve read in weeks. Thank you for the reminder oh brave keyboard warrior. Rage on!
Ship related, but not cargo/shipping specific.
Even scheduled re-fueling visits are being turned away due to the trump stating that he would take Greenland over and the J.D. Vance visit which was forced to be on our military base because of the protests.
I have had enough of trumps version of “winning”.
Maybe the saying will change to “that ship hasn’t sailed”.
The EU is breaking apart:: Spain and Portugal power outages shut the countries. Nothing is moving. People walk home.
Wow you really get excited about a power outage. Please explain how you expect this to unfold, this EU Collapse. Please help us learn and drink from your fountain of great knowledge. We know you have no explanation and won’t answer, but sometimes it’s just fun to call out the BS.
The EU is definitely in a bad state. But if a power outage is a sign of that, how about the Texas Power Grid failure?
lol, take a breath.
Idiot. A grid outage is not states collapsing.
Similar to Texas power outage a couple years ago. Took days for power to come back in Texas.
Truckers love Trump so hope they enjoy the full effect
Truckers and farmers are getting hit hard and awareness of the impending supply disruption is just beginning.
My area farm associates were laughing at me for not planting corn/soybeans, going to clover and buckwheat to rebuild my soils and building a large apiary (honeybees).
Adapting to trumps insanity is going to take all the ingenuity that Americans can muster!
As a Harris voter, do you love stupidity? Of course not. You voted for her despite of it. Same here.
Trump and JP are partners. In 2020 JP raided bank’s account and transferred funds
to shingle mums, the poor and the middle class. For a hundred years, since Wilson, the Fed most important priority is our national interest. $37B gov debt is a threat to our national interest. The PRC creed is all about squeezing our balls. If u don’t care vote for somebody else. Replace Trump with bMC^2.
Dude… The pandemic spending was done by Congress not by Powell.
Do you believe anything real, or do you exist strictly in the paranoia-sphere?
Man, that Engel don’t know his ass from his elbow
And with no malice, Port of Seattle is a smallish port on the West Coast. The port of Los Angeles/ Long Beach handles more than 5x the traffic through Port of Seattle. And as a point of comparison, Port of Long Beach for March 2025 handed 25% more incoming traffic than March of last year. (Just a quick comparison.. from https://polb.com/business/port-statistics/#latest-statistics) Port of Los Angeles is about 2% higher in March, compared to 2024. (https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics)
So we’re not seeing a decrease in port traffic coming in yet — but May and June may see big drops. So far, we can’t point to numbers to say “yes! its happening!” yet….
If goods stay parked at the port, that will be when the brown material hits the rotating blade.
What a plunge in shipping traffic from China says about tariffs, stocks and the economyhttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-plunge-in-shipping-traffic-from-china-tells-us-about-tariffs-stocks-and-the-economy-e46bf135?mod=home_lead
Interesting that all the truckers that were so pro-trump are among the first to be bitch slapped by his stupidity. Next it is the farmers. I have planted my farm with clover and am taking crop rotation to the max while building my soils for the future. No point in paying for expensive seed and fertilizer to sell grains into a market with export markets gone.
Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight https://archive.is/1MsoF
Xi is Martingale. Trump is Anti. In the long run we will win. Trump isn’t fully committed to anything. He is flexible. He is willing to compromise a lot, but not on the most important things that are important to our national interest and to the flyover people. China has a target on its back. Trump doesn’t want to destroy it. He wants to bend their inelastic creed. After 100K additional Palestinians death the zion don, Qatar, the Saudis and Lebanon will sign a peace treaty with Israel. In the ME it’s all about power.
Thanks for this. It’s always good to have an inside source to get the real story. I’ll move my investments as soon as my broker opens./s
“Trump isn’t fully committed to anything. He is flexible.” A euphemistic way to say he’s makg it up as he goes along and this whole unfolding disaster is caused by the brainfarts of a tyrant.
if Hakeem replaces Trump he will follow his footsteps. He will cut debt, raise tariffs, trade with China, the EU, Canada and Mexico – as Trump does – while raising the DOD budget to $1.5T to make America great again.
Small correction/addition. Brain farts of a mentally ill tyrant.
Your self-fellating is really quite uncreative and boring.
impeach this moronic clown.
From the north pole to the Gulf of America
Ok Harris voter.
The Hooties deflated the Suez canal. Trump deflates Panama. Stevedores are an expensive cost ctr doing nothing all day. Since 2022 CL, mazut and diesel deflated. CSX R/R made a rd trip to 2019, 2020 highs and to 2022 low. Food prices deflated. Apt vacancies accumulated. Selling your asz isn’t good enough to pay rent. Obese UPS processing centers are on diet. AMZN, the king of the black market. Gavin and Hochul might be ousted in Nov 2026, replaced by reps. Josh is strong.
replace trump asap and broom his entire foreign loving administration.
Palestinians rule Ireland.
Ireland as a country has suffered long and hard from English oppression. They were a colony. As such, the Irish people (on average) feel sympathy for the Palestinian cause, at least more so than in the USA, or Germany who are mortified at the idea that someone might think they are anti Jewish.
The Brits ruled Ireland with an iron fist. They tried to rule the colonies with an iron fist, but the French and the rugged US army defeated them. For them the Rocks of Gibraltar were more important. In WWII three million indians in west Bengal died in starvation, but they didn’t care. They could have sent a few Mosquito bomber to destroy concentrations camps, or shoot the trains that ship Jews in cattle truck to their death, but they didn’t care.
You really do put the M in moron. Do you practise at being so ‘kin stupid or does it come naturally.
Their emotional response to the middle east don’t matter nearly as much as facts. The Irish need to get their house in order.
Hey Mish, 10 years ago if I said that your predictions of mass unemployment for truckers due to self driving semis was premature, but they would actually lose their jobs because of mass tariffs enacted by a convicted felon reelected as a Republican president how might you have replied?
It’s not just port workers and truckers. Poor sex workers are suffering too.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sex-workers-already-predicted-theres-a-recession-coming-heres-how-they-know-goog_l_680a6887e4b0b1be33560f56
If you guys need me to do undercover hands on, deep analysis on this topic let me know. I will do a full top to bottom research & analysis on this matter at my own expense.
(1) Huffpost, seriously?
(2) The article’s lead example is a EUROPEAN brothel. There’s no clear link to U.S. economy. Europe has been in a recession for nearly 2 years already, so of course the sex workers there are sagging.
(3) When the article finally gets semi-serious, the economist they quote says “can’t tell”.
GMAFB man, this is crap you’re posting here.
European brothels got absolutely inundated with sex workers from Ukraine. It’s a buyer’s market.
And yet you and your cult have been telling us that the economy is terrible under Biden and Trump certainly hasn’t made anything better so which is it?
Seems your comments aren’t matching the expectations of your name.
And by the way, the comment was a joke, lighten up dude.
A joke? I was about to offer to help – no charge. Disappointment.
The essence of a great joke is a kernel of truth, not gaslighting.
“so of course the sex workers there are sagging.” well certainly the older ones are
Funny, and not surprisingly a “Touchy” subject. I will look forward to your detailed report 😉
When I lived in Florida, the strip cubs near Mirage-a-lago were always well staffed with delicious young Russian ladies. No co-incidence that trump was mentioned in the Epstein report 54 times and is known as a sexual predator.
I think that trumps “back door” relationship with Putin will only add to the supply of hot strippers to southeastern Florida. One they escape their indentured status they will migrate to Las Vegas and other favorable places to share their slippery bits.
As you know, blondes are like cow pies. The older they get the more they dry out and become easier to pick up.
Yours truly,
Ben Dover
Those clubs are largely staffed with Hispanic girls now (Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian etc) though there are still Eastern European girls (Ukrainian, Russian, Polish etc) to be found too.
You know that old lady down the street who, all these years, has been retrieving all the “good stuff” from the neighbors’ trash bins? Her house is about to become very popular.
– Orders have been cancelled, but the primary impacts are not felt yet.
> Given that the “Primary Impacts” are not yet felt, does that not beg the questions: “Can they be Reordered? Can anything else change that would change the outcome as such, as well? In fact, wouldn’t it be fair to State: “There is an Equal Chance that No Impacts are felt at all”.
– The Seattle Times reports: a retired marine, noticed fewer vessels coming through starting in mid-April.
> So we are NOW cultivating our “Tariff Situations” from “An 80 Year Old Retired Marine” (playing games?) playing “Watch The Vessels In April 2024” We’re there “Less Seals” by chance? How about Whales? How close exactly was He watching (sleeping? Napping?)? Sounds boring to me…
– Fewer ships coming into the U.S. means companies can’t get components.
> The “Wisdom” of this “Retired Marine” is Amazing! He actually knows what’s in every single ship, and every single container. He must to State: “means companies can’t get components” Wow! He knows exactly what Companies Products there are too, and how many of every single one it sounds like?
– “One of my fears is: Blah, blah, blah…
> “One of my fears” is: that You don’t have a true clue yourself, and nobody else does either. Nobody has enough of all, critical, not finished yet, still yet to be negotiated issues.
– That forward buying continued in the first three months of this year. In January, February and March, that was a 24% jump from the same period in 2024, port data shows.
> Well then what’s the problem? We have a quarters worth over our current needs then?
– And Smith, the amateur ship-spotter, says the drop is pretty clear to anyone actually looking at Elliott Bay.
> Yep, hanging your “Predictions” On Him Still. I knew it… Valuable Date Huh? Where did the “Official Documents” come from, to have this all get done in this manner? A left over “Biden Deal” perhaps?
– Craig Fuller CNBC:
– Supply chain shortages will probably show up in late-June or July.
> Probably? “The Sun Could Fizzle Out as well, I suppose”?
– Consumers will really feel shortages during back-to-school season > “See Above”
– Ocean voyages, we are currently seeing Covid-like conditions at the extreme > “See Above”
– 500,000 jobs at risk due to lack of imports. “See Above”
– Year-over-year trucking activity out of Los Angeles down 23%. It will likely drop to 50% in the coming weeks if there isn’t trade war resolution. “See Above”
> Doesn’t this just keep getting sillier and sillier? Could see, May see, Some will see, “BUT WE Just DON’T KNOW YET” Yeah OK, I’m with whomever you’re Not With on this one!
Good to see that all is well in MAGA-land. Where the tariffs will save the country and at the same time will have no effect at all.Certainly no effect that’s predicted by any economist or (small) business leader and is actually being observed. Oh, and if it somehow goes wrong, the negative effect of the tariffs are Biden’s fault.
– Good to see that all is well in MAGA-land. Where the tariffs will save the country and at the same time will have no effect at all.
> We are not sure if things are well just yet, but appear to be heading that way, buy those in charge and actually doing the work and putting together the results. If you Don’t, Can’t, or Won’t “Trust” Your President, that’s your issue to resolve in some way. Good Luck!
– Certainly no effect that’s predicted by any economist or (small) business leader and is actually being observed.
> Some yes, but without the facts or a leaning tilt, because they have to make much of it up. You see nothing, as they show nothing, because they can’t. All reporting from the MSM is Made Up! It has to be, with No Facts, but what they are told, by those in the know.
– Oh, and if it somehow goes wrong, the negative effect of the tariffs are Biden’s fault.
> Why? Biden wasn’t running anything, and that includes the WH. Biden probably couldn’t tell you what a Tariff is, or what it does. To be honest, he probably can’t even speak the word coherently, so anyone that blames Biden is a Fool!!!
Thanks for sanity-checking the mainstream B.S. articles, Stu.
Your welcome! Somebody has to challenge there distortions.
How anyone can say they are accurately reporting on this, is disingenuous at best. Everything is hidden except the leaks, and that issue has been resolved for now. They are and must play this out in private. Too big of an issue for Our Country to have it get screwed up by BS interference, Lies and Distortions. The Administrative is being Extremely Transparent throughout this effort, with whatever they can possibly disclose.
What Mr Fuller actually said at the end of the 2.5 minute interview: “We do anticipate as we move into late May and June, particularly in Southern California is half-a-million jobs may be at risk due to the lack of imports.”
I interpreted Fuller’s statement as half-a-million jobs may be at risk nationwide, however his estimate could be read as half a million jobs at risk in Southern California.
Lots of small California businesses are dependent on just-in-time delivery. Solar farm projects alone could be badly hurt – never mind auto shops, specialty markets, pharmaceuticals, tourism, and all the other consumer and commercial goods that drive the west coast economy. Then throw in lost transportation jobs, lost construction jobs, and knock on effects from all of it.
A lot depends on how many ships turn back or are canceled, and whether that happens gradually or all of a sudden.
I have no idea how well prepared supply chains are following COVID-19 but my suspicion is not much actual preparation occurred. Warehousing products = lost profits in good times.
At least we won’t be calling tent cities Hoovervilles as in the 1930s: Brother, can you spare me a dime?
Anyone still dependent on Just-in-Time Delivery, after the lessons taught by COVID, deserves any pain they’re about to suffer.
JIT is a theory I used in my business experiences for many years, BUT THAT WAS 30 Years Ago!!! SCM and Transportation Hubs is where it’s at now, and has been for quite sometime.
Is this the same advice you give to members of the Trump cult that…
Rely on Medicaid?
Want a lower government budget deficit?
Export US products to a country targeted for US tariffs that wants to retaliate? ….
You knew what you were voting for. So get over it and you “deserve any pain you’re about to suffer.”
I said nothing about any of those.
My comment was about people who still use over-optimized supply chain management practices, 5 years after COVID. They didn’t learn the right lessons.
Especially since they were given a free remedial course 2 years later, a second chance to learn the same lesson, when the Ukraine war started!
And there was a 3rd lesson, taught starting late 2023, with the Houthis shutting down the Red Sea ship lanes.
If you haven’t evaluated your supplier dependencies and worked out contingency plans by now, it’s time to get on it because you’re way behind the curve.
Upcoming next week–Trump builds a rapport with other countries he wants to negotiate with, so he goes with this in the upcoming article from The Atlantic:
“The first time, I had two things to do—run the country and survive…The second time, I run the country and the world.”
That’ll bring China to the table
It’s easy to get rid of income tax when there is no income to tax
Asset deflation for sure
Can’t have empty shelves for more than a month or so…but higher prices will be in effect
Recently, a “resumption of shipments” notice from major US retailers has attracted widespread attention. According to a report by Hong Kong’s Ming Pao on April 26, several Chinese exporters revealed at the ongoing Canton Fair that major US retailers – including Walmart, Target and Home Depot – have notified them to “resume shipping goods” that had been temporarily halted due to the high tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese imports, with the tariff costs to be “paid by the American buyers.”
Walmart and other companies have not yet confirmed this information. However, earlier reports indicated that the CEOs of these three major US retail giants met with US President Donald Trump at the White House on April 21 local time to discuss the impact of tariff policies on their “import-heavy” businesses. Recently, Walmart China also announced the launch of a “green channel” to support eligible foreign trade enterprises. Both Chinese and US companies are actively working to maintain the normal operation of supply chains, which once again underscores that tariff barriers cannot override the rigid demand underpinning China-US economic and trade relations.
[ https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1333007.shtml ]
Retail must swim or die.
Large well financed retailers who can afford to pay the tariffs will remain in business, less sound retailers can’t and won’t.
Transport volumes will have a big gulf of emptiness to cross and will resume in a few months at a reduced pace. Meanwhile trucking companies and truckers go under.
But hey, 50% have $500 or less to withstand a job loss–that’s good, eh
Tariffs cause prices to go up. People buy less stuff. Then i would think there will excess stuff on the shelves? What am i missing. Nobody is setting up an embargo or sanction to keep goods from flowing into the u.s.?
Musk is going to take over the whole business with driverless truck.
Sorry! old trucking business.
There are 3 million semi trucks in the US.
Tesla promised to build 50,000 EV semi trucks in 2024.
Actual number built: 70.
Tesla driverless system has been promised for years and is still many years away. It is a joke compared to other driverless systems already in use.
You underestimate the mass production in scale.
So far your statement is right. But technology is advancing really fast.
AI and advancing battery technology, future driverless truck is much nearer than at the end of the tunnel.
I remember I think you and I agree EV will take over ICE only a few months ago. It is happening right now.
You over estimate the scaling of production capacity.
EVs are indeed improving and may become the dominant vehicle on the world’s roads. But we are 50 years from that happening.
There were 17 million EVs sold in 2024 (most of them in China). That is 1% of the 1.7 billion vehicles in the world.
You are over optimistic.
this could be the biggest calamity since the great depression.
Dogs and cats living together. Real wrath of God stuff.
our dogs and cats live and love each other and live together. perhaps i’m beelzebub.
This could be the biggest calamity since the last biggest calamity.
I just want to know how many are crusty enough on the blog to know the phrase “waiting for my ship to come in.” Oh, and if truckers don’t haul to SoCal, so much the better. So harsh, yeah.
“It’s frightening, to tell you the truth,” Smith, 80, said of the possible economic costs…”
He’s 80 years old. What’s he got to be frightened about?
That he might last to 90.
Maybe he has kids and grandkids.
Maybe because he’s not an Ayn Rand worshiping right-wing %#$@%^?
Medicaid Perhaps? He may have forgotten?
This will help with the global warming, though, right?
Fair Question!
Skip the Summer vacation and eat at home. If you have a home.
i think zion don should start hawking trump tents to his nit wit cult. better than a home or a job.
I dont know the date/time stamp of this but its fun to look at: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-174.9/centery:42.5/zoom:4
Trump promised recently that as in his first term, he would provide support for farmers impacted by his tariff fixation.
So why not truckers? And anyone else?
At this point 90 percent of the truckers in this country are 3rd world. Hopefully they will self deport as well.
Great. We would have an immediate economic collapse.
Are you really the bigot, economic illiterate your comment suggests or was that missed sarcasm?
Follow on the interstates to see the garbage being flung out the window of the cab. Went decades without seeing that from semis.
With driverless trucks, you won’t see this any more.
I agree “This Guy’s” comment is tasteless and probably not correct, but I wonder how many of the illegals over the last 4 years have actually started truck driving employment considering it seems many were given posh hotels, free SNAP cards, free medical schooling for their kids and who knows what else that’s not made particularly public. I have seen numbers from California and New York where the costs of their programs have far exceeded any tax or other benefit to the government.
Further, under Clinton there were around 16 million deported or 2 million per year, most without a court hearing according to numbers put out by Mark Tepper on Fox Business. I do not remember any deleterious employment articles from trucking or agriculture to include meat packing during Clinton’s terms. I do not think we have the entire story thus it is not proper to make the connection that a forthcoming recession or even depression is linked solely to deportations. Deficit spending may be running at the point where $10 in deficit is not good for $10 in growth, maybe nearly half the employment growth has been government has a negative impact as government workers primarily impede economic growth if they do anything, especially working from home unsupervised.
My take is it is just too early to make the deportation issue an overall economic negative.
Here are some numbers from 2023 congressional testimony that probably are in the ball park.
“This chaos is also imposing record costs on Americans. Last year, FAIR published a report entitled the Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers. The study strives to illustrate the myriad of ways Americans pay for illegal immigration. Our estimate, which is a conservative one, is that Americans now pay $150.7 billion dollars annually due to illegal immigration. This figure represents a net cost. In terms of gross expenditures due to illegal immigration, we estimate that Americans pay $182 billion. Approximately $31 billion is received from illegal aliens in taxes, only 17 percent of the costs they create.:
And the full article:
HHRG-118-BU00-Wstate-KirchnerJ-20240508.pdf
Page down for some good graphs and charts
<<even depression is linked solely to deportations>> Did you have a depression before they got in? That’s why you let in 15 million of them? Because you were economically depressed?
Did you have a depression because Tyson Foods had US-citizen workers who were paid 10% more?
A bit of sarcasm, a bit of reality. In my line of work I see 50 to 100 truck drivers a day. There are very few that actually speak English as a first language, or at all. trucking is just one more industry that used to be a good blue collar American job to support a family that has been almost completely turned over to the 3rd world. One more nail in the coffin of the middle class.
Does the US Import Toilet Paper?
Yes, the US imports toilet paper, mainly from Canada, China, and Mexico, to supplement domestic production, meet demand, and offer specialty options. https://www.nlbamboo.com/does-us-import-toilet-paper/
Many domestic paper mills were closed for monopoly purposes.
You know, they really should start constructing buildings made of cat food. Purina website says almost all the cat food ingredients in the US is sourced from places in the US and a little from Canada. Just think how many problems that solves!
That made me remember this:
“On March 16, 2007, Menu Foods, a producer of private-label pet foods based in Ontario, Canada, announced that it was recalling sixty million cans and packets of nearly one hundred brands of its products because of the deaths of a reported seventeen animals who were fed the products. Initially, the contaminant was unknown, and the actual number of affected pets remains unknown as well.
For weeks, as the recall continued to grow, both Menu Foods and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could not identify the problem and insisted that there had been no more than a handful of deaths. Veterinarians, however, reported thousands of pet deaths—cats and dogs—from causes such as kidney failure, while bloggers steadily tracked death tolls and developments. Later, two manufacturing plants in China were found to have added the nitrogen-rich chemical melamine, which is used in the production of fertilizer, plastics, and other inedible products, to wheat gluten and rice-protein concentrate to inflate their protein content. Wheat gluten and rice-protein concentrate are used as thickeners for wet pet food. Menu Foods was the leading manufacturer of wet pet-food products in North America at the time the scandal broke.”
https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/politics-and-government/manufacturer-recalls-pet-food-killed-thousands-american#:~:text=In%20response%20to%20reports%20of,chemicals%20to%20maximize%20their%20profits.
Poo poo pee pee. Go long Kohler bidets. Made in USA.
LOL! Kohler imports 90% of their products. Kohler is nothing other than an over priced marketing company
I learned this as early as the covid days, and I was wondering – toiler paper should be such a waste of space in commercial ships and long haul trucks… is it really worth the transportation vs. producing it locally?
Such impacts that stretch out over time, space and commerce, are why We, the People granted power to legislate, including the power to tax, expressly and explicitly to the Congress, which is the deliberative body. That any one guy, whatever his title, can say “just kidding” and reverse all this in one moment and undo it the next, is a demonstration of what was NOT granted in our Constitution. That is an absurd, and not an intended, situation. In any reasonable, good faith interpretation. An “emergency” emerges suddenly, emphatically unlike this slow rolling wave of commerce, that emerged and unfolds over many decades. Hopefully SCOTUS can find its backbone.
This is why Republicans will lose bigly come the mid-term’s, despite the Dems likely doing their best to shoot themselves in both feet and knees.
That was supposed to happen in 2024. Someone didnt get the memo.
When AB5 was enacted in California, all translators located there (without any exception) lost all their clients overnight. They were just erased from the job posing sites. All their projects were snatched by the other translators overseas. An exemption was granted later, but it was too late. I participated in a zoom conversation with a woman from the Department of Labor, and I explained to her the nature of our job (which she didn’t know anything about, before I, specifically, spoke). Her jaw dropped when I told her that “translators translate documents, that’s 99% of our job” and “document translation has been an online business since 1995“, and “foreign translators who work for US agencies pay no income tax, because US companies don’t send 1099s abroad, US-based translators are at a huge disadvantage“. And “an AB5 nationwide would force us to leave the country and move to any other country almost overnight and dump our US citizenship asap, because we won’t be able to work legally just by being Americans“. That was before Trump 1.0. That was the “sub-human intelligence” Obama admin.
People in government departments do not know what the hell they’re doing. They don’t even know what a farmer does, and that very few immigrants work in farms, because it’s all done by machines now, even fruit picking. If republicans lose big, it’s AOC who will pull the strings and a nationwide AB5 becomes a certainty. Along with other things, such as completely wide open borders.
I’m getting the impression that people who write comments “orange man always bad” in forums are mostly trust-fund kids not affected by policies, just commenting as a hobby to vent other frustrations. Current Democrats are 5 clicks more to the Left than even the Europeans – such as AB5, which Europe never enacted, because it’s a Soviet rule.
What an AOC-Bernie-controlled admin this will do to your cushy income and your investments (tax on unrealized capital gains) and to your suburbs you can’t imagine now. Unless you think that the next wave of 30 million young male migrants will confine itself conveniently within city ghettos…
Whatever Trump is doing now, is only temporary waves. Whatever the democrats do though, becomes permanent (think Obamacare, which most freelancers can’t afford, myself included).
Maybe it’ll be a blessing in disguise. I’ll go back to Europe, dump the “Citizenship of the Constant Whiners” and I’ll keep working with the same large US agencies but without paying taxes this time. Ah yeah, and criticize Americans for paying my defense and protecting international trade with their Navy.
It won’t make any difference. Trump is doing whatever damage he’s doing without any need for help from Congress. Though one might add, they’ll end up helping him anyway.
This is why neither Congress nor state legislatures should hand off their power during supposed “emergencies”. An emergency should last no more than 2 weeks. Plenty of time for the legislative body to convene and address the issue.
exactly. The Founders intended Congress to represent the people most. The POTUS, one person, cannot possibly represent all Americans regardless of all talk of a “mandate”.
And they wanted important things to be decided by Congress, which they knew would be very hard forcing compromise and making it difficult to constantly switch and backtrack on important issues. Nowadays everything is done by EO (this wasn’t just Trump but he’s taken it to another level) and so one administration undoes what the last one did. It’s a broken system that is doomed to make lots of people miserable.
Trump did warn us about pain, but no one asked how painful it was going to get. LOL
Trump warned there will be too much Wins. You have to ask to stop more winning.
This is all going according to plan … deals negotiated by the most amazing, incredible human ever designed by God and higher beings. Nothing to fear. It will result in billions and billions of new jobs and a new auto factory in every backyard. You are already much richer than you think.
Reminds me of Mao’s Great Leap Forward, steel furnaces in every farm. That went famously, hugely. Like, I don’t know, millions got famine as a reward.
Ditto for the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach – the local media is already out interviewing truckers with no loads. It is estimated stores have from six to eight weeks of items. Then try to get some plumbing done or pick up DIY items at Home Depot. China has pulled shipments, and even if everything is worked out tomorrow, there will be supply chain problems this summer.
The Baltic Dry Index came off its cycle low this January. The index bounced back sharply from 700 to 1700 in 6 weeks. One way this inconsistency makes sense is if the rest or the world is implementing plans to buy raw materials from non-US nations farther away.