San Fransisco clueless elite bought 1M – 5M houses using their investments portfolio as collateral. Since Satya Nargila dumped, their collateral slumped. Adjusted their bonds portfolio isn’t good enough. The banks have to lift NDX and creepto from it’s hospice bed. SPX support line might be breached. BAC July/Aug 1997 backbone is WB banjo.
worleyeoe
1 year ago
“What Now?”
One can only hope that there are more of these failures on their way. We need a black swan event to make everyone pucker up and stop spending money like QE is still in for force.
8dots
1 year ago
SPX weekly log : Mar 2020 low –> Oct 10 2022 close –> yesterday close. Overreaction bs.
MarkraD
1 year ago
It appears SVB screwed themselves by not adapting it’s portfolio to rising interest rates.
Maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but shouldn’t a “bank” be aware of interest environments?
Even I shorted treasuries in 2020, to me it was obvious and I’m no banker.
Yep, the portfolio should have been adjusted. The Fed told everyone what it was going to do so that portfolios can be adjusted. They do that every time. Why SVB didn’t do it is a mystery. The CEO was even a director of the board of the San Francisco Fed. I would hazard that for some reason they couldn’t adjust. Maybe those government bonds in their portfolio already has liens on them that they couldn’t unwind.
Definitely an overreaction but in an environment where the Fed is raising rates you don’t want to have banks no matter what. Higher rates hurt their portfolios, their clients and their investments.
Mind, the big banks aren’t just commercial, they’re also investment banks with proprietary trading, if a peon like me knew to short treasuries in 2020, they certainly know to hedge for higher interest.
I did say “might”, I can’t help but think there’s a short term opportunity where the whole sector reacted as if SVB was indicative of the whole. I certainly wouldn’t hold.
It is better not to depend on proprietary trading to be your principle profit center in a period of volatile rates, markets and geopolitics. Proprietary trading works best when tends are firmly in place and that is not the case now. As an individual you can try to time it but good luck with that.
8dots
1 year ago
Kirk Krekorian, Los Vegas gambler, was in BAC cash, because he dared. He bought seven million Ford shares, to scare, to get a kick in the butt
and sell at profit. This time around was different. Kirk piled half a million losses after he got a margin call. Ken Lewis got him at $2.45.
8dots
1 year ago
Buy & hold until u fold. In 2008 there was some kind of “event” nobody could understand. Paulson and Bernanke panic. Bank of America
peaked at $55 in Nov 2006 and plunged to $5, Jan 2009 low. The B&H investor parked all his money in BAC, because BAC at $5 is an opportunity to buy forever and never sell. When BAC flipped from$3.1 to $2.99 he had a margin call. Wall street traders got his shares at $2.60, thanks to slippage and Hank & Ben. Wall street traders might have done the same on Fri.
Buy low sell high, watch for danger then sell, Fed panics, Cramer rules, SVB for fools, Xi reelected 100%, no one dares object, Putin butt up, Xi prepares, meantime I’m in cash, no cares.
Doug78
1 year ago
Now to throw a rock in the pond… was the bank run intentional?
Jeff Dog
1 year ago
I have a $100 dollar CD at Ally Bank that lists several charities as beneficiaries. This multiplies my FDIC coverage far beyond the normal 500K for a joint account. I assume the people who had deposits at Silicon Valley bank are smarter than I am on average and so they did something at least as effective.
Yes they get to split about $100 five ways but no more. And between me and my wife we have FDIC coverage in one bank up to 2.5 Million dollars instead of 500K. We don’t need that much in cash but my wife wants it so that is the way its going to be.
SVB is a bank and not an investment. It has to adhere to the banking regulations full stop.
LawrenceBird
1 year ago
Didn’t I read here a few times that deposits are just a nuisance for banks and didn’t really matter?
8dots
1 year ago
In 2014 China opened to foreign investors. To Compete with China Yellen raised interest rates. When JP was doing the same
we got Jan 2018. JP persisted and we got Xmas 2018 massacre. JP change his mind and we got Feb 2020. The SVB “event” will be neutered
by Yellen and JP. There will be no massacre.
amigator
1 year ago
Well at least the terminology is correct a Government bailout. Not a tax payer bailout because there is no money there from the taxpayer that is already spent plus some…lol
8dots
1 year ago
This weekend a primary banks might takeover SVB and get a candy. Janet Yellen isn’t Hank Paulson. Hank GS threatened Ken Lewis Bank of America ceo and his board after discovering Merrill Lynch losses. The regime change Hank reneged on a verbal promise to support BAC . This primary bank will provide SVB customers funds to pay rent, bills and wages. Janet Yellen and Biden support the little guys, the small businesses, the five feet tall, not the vc billionaires.
Biden and Yellen support innovations to compete with China. They will not let small innovative co die. Few of these customers might become billion dollar co
“Biden and Yellen support innovations to compete with China.”
Such brilliant “innovations” as stuffing Silicon Valley full of the rankest of straight up retards, all flush with Fed loot; so they can then drive up costs for all four of the semiliterate guys who still bother doing anything requiring counting ability in Silicon Valley…. Yup, that’s America in the dumbage.
The very existence of such idiots-only makework-schemes-for-clueless-dilettantes as “Silicon Valley Bank”, is exactly why China is not just ahead; but indeed ahead somewhere to the tune of 100-to-none. And rapidly increasing.
WarpartySerf
1 year ago
So big boy multi-millionaire Ackman wants the “little people” to bail out him and his predator buddies. That makes sense. Maybe SBF will be Biden’s Treasury Secretary after all ……..
It’s America. A totalitarian government robbing competent people to enrich connected complete idiots is, literally, ALL that America is. There is nothing else. So yes: The idiots expect ever more robbing of their superiors, in order to keep them enriched despite not one of them rising to even dishrag levels of neither brains nor competence at anything whatsoever, other than being handed loot by agencies of the totalitarian junta.
BDR45
1 year ago
Money one deposits in a bank is a LOAN to the bank, and you are a creditor.
And you can call your loan back at any time on a whim. If the bank loans money to you by a mortgage the bank can’t call it back on a whim so the relationship is asymmetric.
Doug78
1 year ago
Silicon Valley Bank is not being bailed out. It is in receivership which means that the management is fired and the shareholders are wiped out. After the books are examined they will decide whether to close it, sell it or keep it as a going concern. The branches are supposed to open Monday and we will see what will happen. Since it is the linchpin of a lot of startups my guess is that they will try to keep it as a going concern either by selling it to a much bigger bank or by recapitalizing it.
The FDIC already said it will issue ‘notes’ for deposits which other banks will take. These notes are in lieu of actual money since that won’t come for months until the bankruptcy is wound down and assets sold etc. Wolf Richer has a nice article on it on his website.
I wasn’t aware that the certificates would be honored by other banks. That’s good as a stop-gap measure and better than expected but considering that California (and the country as a whole) depends on it’s startups it is not a surprise that rapid action to keep them alive would have been put into place. I am happy that it is happening. I am not a Libertarian but more of a Hamiltonian when it comes to economic policy. I just hope no one challenges me to a duel at my age. Thanks for the info.
MPO45v2
1 year ago
MPO45 is back baby! I relocated and did some digital housekeeping and locked myself out of my old username MPO45 but been very busy profiting anyway to post comments here.
Sigh…everyone was warned about this 4 months ago and you were taught how to profit from this….it was rigged from the very beginning, too bad if you didn’t read the signs and head the profit potential.
There are 22,000 PUT contracts some ‘entity’ did today on KRE (Regional bank ETFs) for January 2023 and March 2023 expiry. 11,000 contracts x 2 at the $40 strikes. KRE is trading at $60 right now so this won’t pay unless KRE drops $20/share. It is a bit unusual and just like BP and XOM calls were going through the roof, those stocks are now popping up. It could be a calendar spread or hedge of some type or maybe it’s some Fed insider because it’s not like that hasn’t happened before but who knows?
whirlaway
1 year ago
Cramer again? What’s new?
As I had stated once – “Watching Cramer’s show to get investment education is like watching an X-rated movie to get sex education”.
Cramer is a source of great investment ideas. Simply do the opposite of what he says to do and your financial success is assured.
MarkraD
1 year ago
Bill Ackman is brilliant with investment.
That said, he has tunnel vision, the world cannot function if it doesn’t prioritize his vocation.
Dr Funkenstein
1 year ago
Time for some jail sentences. Of course it will be bailouts instead
dtj
1 year ago
Ultimately the bank failed because of the increase in interest rates. This just adds another reason why the Fed is about to stop hiking. Next hike of 25 basis points (just for show) will be the last. They know if they hike any more the whole house of cards will collapse.
I’m with you, dtj Let’s resume the massive counterfeiting of the dollar as soon as possible. We all know that’s the way forward for our nation.
8dots
1 year ago
Regional banks massacre. Option #1) SPX will complete it’s RS before moving higher > Aug 15 high.
Option #2) After today/ next week low, a rise to a lower high, before breaching Oct low for a spring. Option #3) A rd trip to Feb 2020 high.
8dots
1 year ago
Brussels2, Ukraine 3 meters black soil will dry in June. Bakhmut is gone. Bakhmut is the focal point of eastern Ukraine parabola.
600K/ 700K trained Russian troops are ready to march through the widening parabola, facing a depleted Ukraine army. // Germany. France, UK, Italy Greece… want to trade with China. Shi intervene to save his silk road. Biden, facing reality, might agree to cut his losses, sign
a peace treaty with Putin, collect land lease dividends and win 2024 Nobel prize.
Wrong. Any decent size business has more than $250k in a bank. It’s needed for payroll, accounts payable and expenses. When they miss payroll and paying vendors, it impacts everyone.
A few years ago, the FDIC deposit insurance fund only had a balance of $3.9 billion to provide loss protection on $6.54 trillion of insured deposits. Not much has changed.
FDIC can only cover the first couple banks that go under.
After that you are on your own – no more insurance money.
By any reasonable metric, both FDIC and SIPC are unable to cover a 1% default. Dont forget, price inflation via fiat conjuring is just another word for ‘slow, in-the-closet default’. Best position is real money, in your mattress.
If one has money in Bank of America, for example, the government will cover insured depositors in a crisis. If one of the SIFIs goes down, the whole system goes down, so the feds would have to intervene just like they did in 2008. No need to be apocalyptic in your thinking.
They always close down banks before their assets go to zero.
In this case the FDIC already said it expects not to have to pay out ANY money. The reason is that there is plenty of assets to sell to cover the 250K insured money. So that gets paid first from the sale of assets and then the FDIC has to pay nothing.
Everyone with more than 250K will take a haircut. As I mentioned elsewhere it will be 10-20% depending on what they can sell the assets for.
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
The Federal Reserve would rather see debt transformed into equity than a bail out by the government. Debt to equity reduces the money supply and tames inflation.
Doug78
1 year ago
If the problem is a mismatch of maturities vs deposits then another bank would buy them. That no bank has done that yet means that there is much more trouble there. Potential buyers saw the books and said no way. Maybe one will step up this weekend but it doesn’t look good.
Correct. The Federal Reserve can also provide short term liquidity too when the bank is still solvent.
My understanding from reading at Zero Hedge (they have excellent financial reporting even if their political stuff is nutty at times) is that the underlying securities (bonds) they invested the deposits in have dropped in value because a lot of them were paying out only 1-2% and now with interest rates in the 5+ range the bonds are below par (no one wants a bond paying 1-2% when new ones pay 4+). Thus they can’t get face value and are in fact insolvent.
It wouldn’t have been taken over by the authorities if the only problem was an underwater portfolio of government bonds. Another bank would have come in with a lowball offer and by buying the bank would have acquired the portfolio at a good discount but that did not happen probably because the electronic run had already started and no one wanted to step in front of that train. SVB was taken over, it’s branches will open Monday and now bids from other banks will roll in.
PS. Lots of people read Zero Hedge myself included.
I read this but that’s not a big problem for the FDIC. These are marketable securities and easy to value. As held to maturity, the losses go away, so it’s just a time value of money problem.
I’m still thinking that they have bad loans. Loans made to startups and the founders and employees of start up secured by the stocks of these companies that were “supposed to go public”. These loans would be complex, very difficult to value and not something ordinary banks would be interested in owning,
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
If everyone was employed in banks and real estate related businesses, there would be no problems in America. Everyone would be rich and get dividends and literally do next to nothing.
Thalamus
1 year ago
Banks with all those nice buildings, like dentist offices, investing customer deposits at 10 to 1, don’t need bailed out by customers or taxpayers.
FromBrussels2
1 year ago
Believe me, It is only a matter of time; our overleveraged, fake, make believe western societies, US, EU and peripheral vasal states are on the f brink of collapse , hence the ongoing war with Russia, the one and only financially and socially healthy nation on f earth ! ….Say it ain t so, otherwise good luck, gonna need it !
Halfra? Sounds half viking and half Egyptian and is it Orm or Ormrich? Don’t you have a nom de geurre attached like Ivar the Bonerless or Eric Bloodass? It would sound cooler. My family name is derived from the wolf that kills Odin so watch out.
People in Russia don t live beyond their means with a UNSUSTAINABLE social ‘security’ network like ours , well, like in Europe anyway , US of A is already a crumbling empire , hence the endless warmonging…. FREEDOM ? We enjoy FREEDOM ?? You must be f deluded !
JackWebb
1 year ago
Of course they’ll be bailed out. Anyone who thinks otherwise in terminally naive. They’re rich, and they’re “progressive.” Done deal.
Not a chance. They are already being unwound by the FDIC who announced the doors will open on Monday.
Those with 250K and less will be 100% made whole. Anyone with more than that will take a haircut. At the moment it’s probably on the order of 10-20% depending on how much the assets are sold for (deposits roughly 200 billion vs assets roughly 180 billion).
On the other hand the silicon valley VC startup machine like just had a mass extinction event.
Bet you’re wrong and all depositors are made whole.
Mac Timred
1 year ago
As of 5.30pm Friay March 10 — Moody’s (www.moodys.com) still has SVB Financial rated Baa1, not on watch for downgrade. Last rating action March 8, downgrading senior debt from A3 to Baa1 (1 little notch). Asleep?
FromBrussels2
1 year ago
NO BAIL OUTS ! This is merely billionaires dough , mfrs who didn t know where to place the next bet! ….Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose….that s the way it should be anyway …unless some are involved that shouldn t be involved, which is most likely the case again ….
The majority of this money was in venture capital startups. That money was being used to pay employees in startups. I imagine a lot of start ups will suddenly go out of business and be unable to make payroll. At that point it’s employees who are losing too, not just billionaires.
I think you’re just too ignorant to understand the ramifications of an unsafe banking system. Every business needs to be able to have secure funds in banks to operate. Large portions of these funds are in demand deposits or earning minimal interest. These are not people or businesses chasing high returns. They have traded off high returns for safety. That’s what the banking system is designed to provide.
Without a stable banking system, businesses can’t survive or employ people. The system fails and people starve.
They could have put their money in stronger banks. I’m thinking a deal is getting structured this weekend to get a stronger bank to take SVB (or what’s left of it) over.
They chose this bank to hold all their money. As Bob wrote below, they could have chosen another bank or even spread the money between multiple banks etc.
Bailing out the bank is just rewarding their gambling of deposits. That must come with consequences.
No bailouts! I’m okay with venture capitalists losing everything. These people have brought nothing but economic disruption and misery to the working classes. And if they were dumb enough to exceed the FDIC insurance limits on their accounts, why is this anyone else’s problem?
The problem is how much of a business can you run with working capital less than $250,000? I’m not a a business management person, how are you supposed to manage the cash flow?
You’re correct. Not much of a business with less than 250K of operating cash.
Most of the people here seem to not understand that. They seem to think 250k of operating cash is a fortune when for any business – small to medium size – it’s a pittance. Most need a million or millions to operate.
Community banks serve these businesses and the businesses need to know the money is safe. If not you’ll end up with even less banking choices and a massive concentration of financial assets. That’s not good for a free society
SVB wasn’t a community bank. It was a VC bank. Very few retail deposits, only big ones.
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
What happened to the Dodd-Frank buy-in rule? Or do we wait until bankruptcies quadruple in number? The last banking crisis should’ve been ample warning.
Dodd- Frank was put in place by politicians that don’t have a clue as to how banking works. It’s just rules and regulations to make it appear that they have solved something.
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Lol. What year is it ? 2008 ?
Salmo Trutta
1 year ago
The FDIC should just temporarily guarantee all deposits to stop the madness, like they did in the GFC.
Thats basically saying the government should backstop gambling losses because that’s what those banks did. They gambled the deposits in an effort to generate yield.
I’d like my gambling losses backstopped too please.
I concur. It’s the same with all these libertarians. They pretend to rail against these big guys but in reality, believe that corporations are people and should be allowed to buy politicians – who, they argue should NOT bailout their donors at times like these! That’s about as absurd and irrelevant an argument that anyone can make.
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As I had stated once – “Watching Cramer’s show to get investment education is like watching an X-rated movie to get sex education”.