Damn. I was all geared up for liberation. 
Note to readers unfamiliar with my sometimes sarcastic articles: This post is dripping with heavy sarcasm.
Great Liberation Postponed
Trump proclaimed April 2 as “Liberation Day” on which he would announce specific tariffs on each of 200 countries.
I had my flags out and firecrackers ready.
And as my lead chart clearly shows, we desperately need liberation from Canada.
White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs
Alas, the Wall Street Journal says White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs
The White House is narrowing its approach to tariffs set to take effect on April 2, likely omitting a set of industry-specific tariffs while applying reciprocal levies on a targeted set of nations that account for the bulk of foreign trade with the U.S.
President Trump has declared his April 2 deadline to be “Liberation Day” for the U.S., when he will put in place so-called reciprocal tariffs that seek to equalize U.S. tariffs with the duties charged by trading partners, as well as tariffs on sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors he repeatedly said would be enacted on that day.
Those sector-specific tariffs, however, are now not likely to be announced on April 2, said an administration official, who said the White House is still planning to unveil the reciprocal tariff action on that day, though planning remains fluid.
The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment on if or when any of those tariffs are still planned to go into effect.
The focus of the reciprocal action now looks to be more targeted than originally thought, according to people with knowledge of the planning, though it will still hit countries that account for most of the U.S.’s imports.
The administration is now focusing on applying tariffs to about 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the U.S.—a so-called “dirty 15,” as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it last week.
Though it will hit most imports coming into the U.S., the administration’s “dirty 15” approach is still a narrower one than many observers anticipated when Trump ordered federal agencies to design reciprocal tariffs in February, directing them to evaluate trading relationships with virtually every U.S. trading partner. The White House had previously considered grouping trading partners into three tiers of high, medium and low tariffs, but turned away from that plan in recent weeks in favor of giving each targeted nation an individualized tariff number.
Trump told oil executives last week during a meeting at the White House that he didn’t want to grant exceptions on tariffs, according to a person who attended the meeting, but said he would consider occasional ones.
When one attendee asked about steel and aluminum exemptions, Trump wouldn’t commit to any, this person said. When U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke to the oil executives, he said he wasn’t interested in doing exemptions because they felt like they granted too many in the first Trump administration. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also told the oil-industry executives that he didn’t expect exemptions, the attendee said.
Trump previously gave automakers a temporary reprieve from tariffs on Canada and Mexico, before pausing those levies more broadly for all products that comply with the USMCA trade agreement. But on Friday, he lamented that people had criticized him for backing down, and hinted that his approach to tariffs could shift in the coming days and weeks.
Once you give exemptions for one company, “you have to do that for all,” Trump said, adding that “the word flexibility is an important word. Sometimes there’s flexibility, there’ll be flexibility.”
Key Word Flexibility
Proving beyond a shadow of a doubt how flexible he is, no one knows month-to-month, week-to-week, day-to-day, or even hour-to-hour what Trump will do.
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Autos, Oil, and China have all been on-and-off, and scaled up and down depending primarily on what mood Trump is in.
Trump is even flexible on being flexible as this important quote shows. “Sometimes there’s flexibility, there’ll be flexibility.”
We have gone from tariff tiers to tariffs for all 200 countries the US trades with, flexible of course, maybe.
Spotlight Canada
Looking at all this data, I just don’t know how Canada can treat us this poorly.
My gosh, oil imports alone were about $103 billion. Factoring out oil the US actually had a trade surplus with Canada of $39 billion. Wait, what?
Yes, that’s correct. But who needs Canadian oil anyway?
Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need”
On February 2, I noted Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?
Well if, Trump says it true then it must be. Nonetheless, I did a fact check on the idea.
It turns out US refiners can’t handle the quality of oil we have and need imports to get by. See link for details.
But Trump has the solution.
Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?
On March 22, I asked Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?
The answer to this question is seemingly obvious, but ….
But “Trump Considers Extending Chevron License to Pump Oil in Venezuela”
This makes perfect sense because Venezuela is a much better neighbor than Canada.
The “Beauty” of the Plan
If we let Venezuela supply US oil needs, but nobody else, then we can reduce our trade deficit with Canada.
Of course, our trade deficit would rise with Venezuela.
And we would have to ship the oil here instead of using pipelines already in place in Canada.
Q: Since a total halt of Canadian oil would eliminate the US trade deficit with Canada, could we eliminate tariffs on Canada?
A: Don’t be silly. To do that Canada needs to become the 51st state.
Clear Explanations
The Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the U.S., which details individual rates on particular commodities, has about 13,000 line items. The U.S. trades with roughly 200 countries. For those doing the math, that’s a 2,600,000 matrix.
How can that possibly not be great?
For discussion, please see A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work
Q: What do we call this?
A: Winning, silly. Anything and everything done by Trump is winning by definition.
How Much Will Lumber Tariffs Increase the Price of a Home?
In case you missed it, please consider How Much Will Lumber Tariffs Increase the Price of a Home?
Lumber tariffs are already close to 15 percent. Trump will tack on another 25 percent.
Drats! Complete Liberation Postponed
I was ready with firecrackers and blowhorns. I even have a Canadian flag to burn as part of my great liberation personal ceremony plan.
But it’s important to be flexible, even on flexibility itself, so that no one can count on anything, ever.
Everyone knows, the market loves uncertainty. And this is why not knowing if Trump will honor any deal he signs is such a great thing.
Trust is so overrated.
By the way, Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
Trump is complaining about Canada’s cheese tariffs. In 2018, he was bragging about cheese. [Seriously, many times]
There’s no sarcasm in this sentence: Apologies to Canada.
Unfortunately you nailed it.
Well, thanks to Musk toying with the idea of cutting Ukraine off from Starlinks, Italy just cancelled their plans for Starlink. So Trump has pretty good helpers around him creating chaos.
Trump cut the healthcare and the pharma mafia. Dr Faust gang are fired. Those who advertise on X they might survive.
The largest Import/Export spread is with China. The smallest is with Canada. China has a target on its back. The EU is second.
Don’t open a pandora box with Venezuela. Feed Maduro, or he will feed on Lisa. Import from Venezuela cut their debt to US co. Pay him dividends: write off debt faster.. Canada will earn our strong dollar. It will support their weak economy.
As for lumber most lumber mills in the US closed down because of over-regulation of the forests which made even selective cutting almost impossible hence they had to close down because they had no trees that they could cut. Canada regulates their forests also but since they were very important for exports to the US and especially Asia they were more flexible and so they were able to set up very large and efficient mills that small US mills couldn’t compete with. Good for them. The problem is that US forests especially in the Northeast are choking on too many trees and becoming diseased as a result because it takes ages and money to get the permit. It’s sort of the same problem as California.
If the tariffs come on and if regulation is rendered sane again, American mills will be able to survive. The forests will be in better health and less fire-prone and as many houses could be built using American lumber and using American jobs. Will prices for lumber fall? That depends on if we have a robust market of lumber mills. Sorry Mish. I prefer the money stays in the US.
Makes one wonder if Trump is a fan of Calvinball (except he is substituting tariffs for a volleyball)-
https://calvinandhobbes.fandom.com/wiki/Calvinball
Brilliant article exposing the chaos that is the Trump Administration “tariff policy”. Trump may have inherited an impossible situation – 7% fiscal deficit, etc. – , but his tariffs, disregard for agreements and relationships, and erratic policy proposals guarantee to make a bad situation much, much worse. It is difficult to understand how markets can remain in denial.
There are so many laws, policies, and procedures in place to artificially inflate share prices, one has to wonder how the aggregate indices *ever* go down.
Inflation expectations for 5yr 5yr forwards are down from before Trump took office by about 20 bps. Nobody sees this long term inflation nonsense because pro growth policies are inherently disinflationary. That’s what Mish should be writing about.
All this hot air blowing around has truly damaged the business climate in the U.S.
Schlepping through his day-to-day ADHD. That’s life now. Some silly memory was that this system was set up so individuals could not be arbitrary and capricious in government and law. That was actually the most critical heart of the matter. Was.
Fun projection coming from an admin that literally had no president in charge and we have no idea who was making the decisions. You may not like what’s he’s doing but I’ve never seen a President work harder than Trump. Not even close.
You are right. First he replaced all the competent heads of government offices with very loyal incompetents’. For any congress members who stray away for his ambitions, Musk offers a generous campaign donation. If that doesn’t work Trump threatens to get them primaried.
Then there was the Trump coin and now the Trump stable coin, and the acquisition of lots of crypto currency so he can control America’s money.
His ultimate goal is to become King, and he is well on his way.
I too have never seen a President work harder than Trump. Not even close.
Now T-rump is saying any country buying oil from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff. Fair to say this idiot has no idea what he’s doing.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariff-venezuela-oil-gas-tax-9197d606dea29caed6a7a79dd358d26a
But he’s playing 8D chess.
Isn’t the US buying oil from Venezuela? Is Trump going to tariff himself?
His thinking is starting to frankenstein…
Venezuela produces just 1 mbpd and exports half of that. Very little of that 0.5 mbpd comes to the US.
Meanwhile Canada exports over 4 mbpd to the US. Venezuela is incapable of replacing this.
The USA imports heavy crude from Canada and mixes it with super light oil generated from the fracking process in the US. This creates gasoline and other distillates used at home and exported. Through fracking and importing Canadian oil, the US has become a significant net exporter of fossil fuels. Without Canadian oil to mix with our local production, we can’t even meet local demand for gasoline. But with it, our overall trade deficit is REDUCED. Unfortunately, this is simply too complex for our aged, demented leader to understand.
Breaking news: Trump says anyone buying oil from Venezuela will pay 25% tariff.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/trump-says-any-country-that-purchases-oil-from-venezuela-will-have-to-pay-25percent-tariff-on-trade-with-us.html
Not helping those underwater puts. Maybe if you yell louder?
Lol. Mpox is gonna get run over by the SPY rally train. Choo choo!
I’m not rooting against him as I consider him a friend and was just joking. Lord knows I can’t make sense of valuations anymore(for years) so I don’t blame anyone for taking a shot.
MOMO, FOMO, TINA, YOLO. Valuations are meaningless. I don’t necessarily like this manner of investing, but if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.
Yes. It seems like where we are. I wish we had a hard reset after 2008 but they just bailed out businesses at the expense of the public. A sin
Lol. I cashed those out and bought NVIDIA at $110. You can make fun of money when Nvidia tanks.
You buy puts or calls or the actual stock itself to go up?
In this case I bought the stock and sold calls on it.
With Trump at the helm creating endless volatility, you have to be long and short the market.
For affected companies, buying $TRUMP coin helps lubricate the “flexibility” process.
Thanks for clearing that up Mish. In our small Canadian city our two largest private employers are American branch plants of Pepsico and Minute Maid, our 3 largest retailers are Wal Mart, Costco and Home Depot. Google and Microsoft dominate the IT side. My car was made and imported from Princeton, Indiana. Not sure how much more American domination I can take. Trump is ill informed and full of it.
That’s nice. Do you know what the trade deficit was with Canada last year? 64 billion.
Did you even read the Mish’s article before commenting?
Would you rather spend a lot more money importing oil from Venezuela?
Midnight has a propensity to post TDS Type II bullsh*t without (or despite) reading what I say.
LOL. I was simply pointing out what’s what. We can agree to disagree.
I’ve never liked this argument. I have a trade deficit with Costco. So what? There are better arguments.
You do? Are you over paying or dropping your wallet there full of cash?
Exchanging cash for goods is not a trade deficit.
Your deficits are with Costco’s suppliers. Costco is a retailer and just takes a 3% cut of sales.
Shop at Canadian Tire, Tim Horton’s and Rogers – they seem to be everywhere.
Princeton, Indiana is Toyota. The Japanese must have missed the memo to set up shop a few miles west to Illinois, where the governor is a larger-than-life character.
Tim Hortons is now American owned. Add London Drugs or Second Cup for coffee, and I was such a Starbucks fan.
can’t do Walmart anymore, and the irony is my daughter works at one.
Wanted to go on a cruise through the Panama Canal. Viking Cruises is the only non-American owned cruise line I could find and even then they depart from Florida to go to Panama. Besides Panama could be American by the time I get there.
I guess we will be going on a Mediterranean cruise and we will see you in four years.(hopefully).
I really hate having to think about “where is this made?” every time I buy something. Now Temu ranks ahead of Amazon on my list of suppliers. Who would have thought?
Crazy, Crazy, Crazy.
Still love you guys though.
Amazon Canada is almost certain selling stuff from Canadian retailers. Whether or not the product they sell is made in USA or elsewhere (China, Vietnam etc) is something you’d have to research on an item by item basis. But Amazon itself doesn’t make much of anything, it’s just a giant bazaar of lots of small businesses that reside in the country that you live.
By the time you get back from a 4 year cruise pretty much anything business wise worth owning will probably be owned by the USA or China.
Your cruise ship will be wired with Musk’s Starlink as well. We like you guys also.
Buy Goodyear and Michelin tires made in Canada. Of course the Canadian government gave about $100 million to do so and Michelin did it because they could export the tires to the US easily. Unfortunately Trump out a 25% tariff on their tires so Michelin will switch production to their US sites. Strangely enough foreign companies often seem to view Canada as the 51st state when it comes to siting factories and installations.
In 2024, the U.S. had a goods trade deficit of $63.3 billion with Canada, a decrease of 1.4% from 2023, with the U.S. importing $412.7 billion in goods from Canada and exporting $349.4 billion.
I love Canada, and I’m in Texas. We should adopt Canada’s policies, and I’m serious. We’d be much better off. Instead of spending 3.6% of our GDP on defense, we should spend 1.3%, like Canada. We could spend even less, really. Also, because Canada’s government cares about its citizens, the nation’s prescription drug prices are 44% of what they are in the US. We pay extra because we have to single-handedly finance the drug companies’ research which is typically of very little marginal value. We should also provide government funding to our mining industry, like Canada does, and find our own rare earth minerals. I’m sure that we have them.
Large cuts to wasteful defense spending would benefit us a lot but both countries subsidizing bubble house prices with debasement of the currency (govt suppressing mortgage rates) is having many bad effects.
Sure, lets open up the border wide like Canada does (how would you enjoy that in Texas). Have unions everywhere (something you don’t know about in Texas).
Don’t forget about those much higher income taxes, along with carbon taxes, taxes on air conditioning in your car (seriously, 500 tax), luxury tax of 10% on cars over 60K (100K Canadian) and on and on it goes with no deductions for mortgage interest etc.
Plan on turning in your handguns (if you have any) and anything even remotely semi-automatic in the rifle category. No mace/pepper spray either.
The Canada pension plan also pays much less than Social Security.
I wonder how long you’d enjoy those wonderful Canadian changes?
Regarding the drugs. The reason they cost less in Canada is because Canada licenses them from US companies. In other words, there is next to no drug research in Canada because there is no money in it. It’s another way Canada piggybacks off the USA so you are in effect financing Canada’s drug research too. So if that wonderfulness came here expect to see medical research drop off a cliff.
Thank you for your prescient comment. Home Run!
Canada does some things much better than the US.
Their federal debt to gdp is under 40% vs 100+% in the US.
Their Canada Pension system is well funded with actual investments vs Social Security which is in trouble.
They cover all citizens with free health care for less than 12% of gdp vs 20% in the US, and we don’t cover everyone.
They rank much higher than the US in almost all satisfaction lists (happiness, health, education to name a few).
They are having an election that will be over in 37 days, and when it’s over, Canadians will forget about politics and get on with their lives.
They have lots of natural resources that the US needs. And they sell some of them at a discount to the uS.
When are you moving to Canada?? Since you don’t recognize their socialism you are clouded by their downhill policies and trajectories. They should be grateful to have Pierre P as their leader. Just look to Argentina 🇦🇷 and Pres M. They are moving in the right direction and Canada is not. U-Haul will gladly help you move.
The US had a 35B surplus in services with Canada in 2024
I need to do a chart of Canada – with services and showing oil separately
Trump was, is and never will be anything but a blowhard.
There’s nothing wrong with being a blowhard that gets stuff done. IMHO, he’s getting a lot done, especially compared to Biden.
Unfortunately, it’s even more important to get the RIGHT stuff done.
Like what? More DEI, CRT, manufacturing sent offshore, more Palestinian violence against Jews on college campuses, more illegal immigration?
If a blowhard gets results then he is not a blowhard.
Re oil – its at the point now they have a new grade ‘ultra light” and “super light” aka condensate. I believe the majority of US production now is in those two grades.
Trump’s credibility continues to slide. How many times can he cry wolf. Investors are finding in their best interests to ignore him and invest accordingly.
Risk on. FOMO. Sentiment now bullish.
The fact that you and most are impatient has nothing to do with credibility. A tough day for those betting against America.
It has nothing to do with being impatient. What Trump is doing is creating mountains of uncertainty in the marketplace. No one knows whether tariffs are on, off, or in between from one day to the next.
With respect to tarrifs, Trump needs to shit or get off the pot, and own whatever consequences come from his decision. That’s the issue though, he doesn’t want to commit because he’s a weak feckless moron when comes to trade.
You cannot wait until April 2? Patience. Outcomes will take time. He’s in office all of 2 months so far. Jeez
Short-term pain and long-term gain. If you can’t take volatility then buy bonds.
No liberation?? I guess we’ll just have to suffer our enslavement forever then?
Do Trump’s tariffs reflect deep belies about the role of US in the world or are they levers for negotiation on other tariffs or goals Trump has? just kidding, they’re obviously brain farts of a mind that is quickly unravelling.
Most excellent sarcasm, sir!
I don’t recall Trump saying anything about Canada during his first term so what got up his butt during his second term that he’s constantly hammering the north? Did someone up there insult him? The same for his cult, I don’t recall a single comment about Canada trade imbalance on this blog for the whole time it’s run until Trump started blabbing about it and now his cult just repeats his opinions, do any trumpers think for themselves?
Admin looked at what countries USA has the highest deficits with. Probably also didn’t want to single out Mexico in North America so was a combo. I don’t think he has anything against Canada. I sure don’t. But its always strange that people take governments disagreements personally.
You have outlined what it is about Canada that Trump is going after. Canada political leadership is the Target. WEF pupils and there to control Canada. Vance told it when he made his speech to EU. The split with EU policies is wide open.
Going to be many Canadians, as in Alberta, who will understand Just what Trump is doing.
Other thing is defense spending by US will be brought to bear defending US interests. No longer will US be world policeman. Let supposed allies spend for their own defense.
As an American do I think France or Germany will come to aid of US? I simply am not that deluded. They will not even spend to defend themselves adequately.
THE US should have stopped trying to be the world policeman instead of launching a major military operation in Vietnam in 1965. Congress never formally declared a war there at the time of the US buildup.
I agree. He’s trying to make the liberal CA politicians look like they don’t know how to govern, and he’s succeeding.
Nailed it with the Political leadership (specifically Trudeau) being the target.
Under Trudeau, Canada zigged (unchecked immigration, crazy green policies, limited oil/gas extraction, carbon taxes) when the US zagged. After 10 years the 2 countries have gotten very far apart (why Canadian dollar went from par to 68 cents in that time).
Canada needs to start zagging again and it couldn’t under Trudeau. If whomever wins doesn’t zag, they too will come under pressure via a no-confidence vote in parliament until a government does get elected that zags.
Thank you. Home Run!
No one in the world has any plans to attack the USA. Not because of our military, just because there is nothing to be gained. So don’t worry about France or Germany.
Thank you! Home Run!
Sheinbaum has figured out how to work with Trump. The Canadians are leaderless until the next election and it’s why the communication with them is a mess.
Are Harris voters part of her cult? It was a binary choice (although I did vote for the least crazy person in 2020 – Kanye West). As Garland Nixon said “it’s not that Trump needed to win, it’s that the Biden team needed to lose.” I wish Trump would shut up about Canada and stop with tariff madness, but would I prefer Jake Sullivan remaining de facto president and Samantha Power running USAID, plotting various regime change operations around the world? No.
Well said. Harris and Biden deserved to lose. It’s that simple. Forget about who beat them. They lost it.
Correct, Trump’s 1st term was all about evil China. Now you don’t hear much about China at all. Weird…..
Wrong. The tariffs on China were continued by Biden. He has now increased them to 20%. His focus is on trade overall, not just with one country. AS it should be
I agree. A 20% tariff speaks for itself.
My point, moron, is that if Trump is serious about fixing trade imbalances he’d go hard after China. Look at Mish’s leading chart. Which country has the biggest trade imbalance? Hint….it’s not Canada.
but according to MAGA Biden sold out to the Chinese because of Hunter. Or something.
Other than who owns the high-end real estate in BC and significant O & G in Alberta, it’s completely unwarranted.
Illegal aliens & drugs coming through CA to the US?
Yes. that is the real reason. The cartels and China are close to owning Canada.
“I don’t recall Trump saying anything about Canada during his first term so what got up his butt during his second term that he’s constantly hammering the north?”
He learned Canada wasn’t a state in 2023.
If we could have the regulatory reform suggested by DOGE, enacted where needed by Congress to establish long-term change, supplemented by executive orders, and have a sane, stable tariff policy emphasizing free trade for the United States, then Trump will have delivered a major long term economic boon for the nation. As it stands, his tariffs are likely to undo much of the beneficial upside his regulatory reforms stand to make. Just think what we could gain if he and Congress engaged in even modest entitlement reform. Right now, though, Trump seems bound and determined to deliver near-Biden-level economic “growth.”
Lot to what you present as to actual Trump economic policy being introduced.
His concentration remains on reducing energy costs to drive growth.
Energy availability will be Key to reforming and rebuilding America.
Since analysts keep pointing articles that are limited in scope best thing to do is keep in mind Architecture which is being implemented to make USA the Global energy superpower.
Things such as Burgum opening up Alaska and reversing Biden removal of offshore energy Locals from development. Regaining control over Panama canal which allows for Coastal oil shipments from new fields coming on line.This demonstrates Big Picture direction
Choice is stark return to money printing MMT and Fiscal stimulus or proceed down the Path of using energy to power US economy.
Trumps choice obviously the Latter.
Read the analysts but do your own thinking as most of what is published is designed to deliberately mislead by telling half stories.
And, I like how the debt has been stable since Trump took office. Granted the Treasury’s GA with the Fed is taking a hit, but Trump might actually make it through his first 100 days or more without meaningfully increasing the debt.
Fiscal spending is part of Political process at this time.
Trump could go cold Turkey, but then as the impact from shutting off Fiscal irresponsibility hits on top of the impact of Biden’s wartime stimulus and illegal entries facilitation, American economy would take a large hangover withdrawal.
He needs some time for the rest of his restructuring of Americas economy to get into gear. Then the Fiscal spending can get slowed and transitioning to a sustainable growth pattern engaged.
I think there is substance to this view as Trump has maneuvered Fed into taking full responsibility via monetary policy for what occurs. No way for Powell to backtrack and blame others for what he himself has declared is Feds role as Chief manipulator of GDP.,
Powell attempted to shift uncertainty to a focus on Tariff impact, Anyone with some eyes wide open view discounts Tariffs as some sort of be all and end all determinant of GDP. That is just plain nonsense to elevate Tariffs to such a level of importance..
What? No liberation!! Damn it I thought I was Free!!!
Great Liberation Postponed
– Trump proclaimed April 2 as “Liberation Day” on which he would announce specific tariffs on each of 200 countries.
> This would have worked out so much more Trumpian, if He had set the date as April 1’st!!!
White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs
– President Trump has declared his April 2 deadline to be “Liberation Day” for the U.S., when he will put in place so-called reciprocal tariffs that seek to equalize U.S. tariffs with the duties charged by trading partners, as well as tariffs on sectors like automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors he repeatedly said would be enacted on that day.
> So it appears He did what He said from the start, and tossed aside the BS after that discussion.
– Proving beyond a shadow of a doubt how flexible he is, no one knows month-to-month, week-to-week, day-to-day, or even hour-to-hour what Trump will do.
> In other words, we truly know probably less right now, than more, but it’s all subject to the individual and what they may have heard, and/or interpreted anyway… So nothing.
– Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” > Then WHY do we keep buying some?
Where we are visiting right now include TWO 85 year-old ULTRA-RIGHT WING TRUMP-LOVING Republicans. We were out to lunch and a pin dropped and it sounded like an explosion when I said: “You DO know that Tariffs are paid by US, the consumers in America? YOU DO KNOW that Trump Tariffs are an amazingly stupid idea that will lead to more Inflation misery, right?”
THEY COULD NOT DO IT. THEY NEVER UTTERED A WORD and my father-in-Law went into his normal, “I do NOT want to discuss it” mode which means that the discussion was OVER.
HE IS TRULY an asshole that I can barely look at. The arrogance of the idiot, with the Cousin Female Republican was more than I could handle.
Ah geez. Lighten up. The arrogance and ignorance of right wingers is matched (at least) by that of left wingers. You can find something to hate and like in most people.
I hate to break it to you DH, but most Chinese exporters & their US importers they sell to can split & eat the 20% tariff & still make a profit. Now, whether or not they all do this is up to debate. We’ll know more how this experiment is working out by June. But don’t be surprised if inflation doesn’t shoot up. Since the 3/13 tariff on CA oil, WTI oil is only up $2. Big deal!
Somebody in the White House should be able to explain to Trump—maybe using a paper napkin—the option theory of holding back investments. Even 7-year olds can understand the gist of it if you can get them to focus for 30 seconds.
And while all of this is going on nobody seems to be paying attention to the fact that this administration is being run by technocrats and zionists.
I lived in Canada a little more than the first decade of this century. I feel I would be remiss if I didn’t say they treated me excellently. (And not to mention dating wise too!) . They flat out liked Americans. God knows this is another bridge we needlessly burn.
Perpetual uncertainty = Trump
You can also add $20 billion in aluminum and potash imports from Canada. Two items we must import because we can’t produce much of it here.
Eliminate oil, aluminum and potash imports and our surplus with Canada rises to $60 billion.
We’ll have to buy potash (fertilizer) from Russia and China – if they’ll sell it to us.
Increasingly fertilizer is being made from natural gas, rather than relying on Potash. So the US could easily make do without the Potash given how much excess natural gas we have.
Put a nickel return on beer cans and we should be able to eliminate the Aluminum import from Canada. Can mine old dumps for countless cans.
Recycling is the first step to Communism!
Funny. It’s actually true to the extent that recycling is often little more than an exercise in getting people to follow the pack with very little of what they think gets recycled actually being reused. That being said, I recycle – because I’m not a pig, and it might accomplish a little something.
Interesting. Never heard that before.
Can you elaborate on why its the first step. Especially for voluntary recycling (the economy, especially businesses, currently recycle TONS of things now like paper, metals, water, chemicals, oil).
Nope. The big 3 in fertilizers are Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium.
Nitrogen fertilizer can be made from natural gas.
Potash is Potassium. It cannot be made from natural gas.
If Trump never plays a strong hand when do people conclude he doesn’t have the guts to do the hard thing he keeps buffing he will do?
I concluded this right from the beginning. The recent stock market correction was a great buying opportunity… hope others took advantage too.
Was it? Are you sure about that? For how long?
Sell the rips. Buy the dips. Repeat.
Thanks to his speedy and continuous changing-of-mind-performance, so far the following countries have considered declining their F-35 orders from the US: Portugal, Canada, Switzerland. How many more could be re-considering relying on the US which has been proven itself utterly unreliable as an ally already?
So will this fix the trade deficit?
After watching what’s happening in Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Israel) with drones, why would anyone want to order very expensive 20th century fighters when you can get 10000 drones for the cost of a single fighter and that’s before considering maintenance costs over the lifetime of that fighter?
The era of manned fighter jets is closing rapidly so why buy something that will be obsolete in under a decade.
The point was how much harm and how quickly Trump causes. When signed contracts worth billions are torn up because of one person’s stupidity, it does not matter if the objects of the contracts will be obsolete.
I got your point.
But shouldn’t those countries be THANKING Trump for giving them the convenient excuse for canceling contracts that they desperately wanted to shed anyway?
Let’s see how many countries cancel the important things like Netflix, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter and countless other US companies that provide the things that people really want.
Well, Ukrainian F-16-s are doing pretty well against Russian targets inside Russia these days, so perhaps its too early to discount the F-35-s value just yet.
Only 3.75 more years of Trump’s Three Card Monte.
Can we please be liberated from Israel? This country voted for MAGA and we’re getting MIGA. What will be the consequences of a US attack on Iran?
isreal defacto has final say on us policy. If a single pol dare critisizes Isreal even slightly, bang $20M to primary said critic, so they are cowed into silence.
And that money comes from right-wing Christians who want the third temple built so that Jesus will return and really own the libs.
Apparently these Christian fundamentalists want animal sacrifices again? That’s stupid.
We knock out Iran’s nuclear capability?
which may take the use of nukes by the US – if it can even be done. And then Iran closes the straights of Hormuz. And then things get interesting.
Interestingly, that would no longer be a problem for the US which doesn’t import any meaningful amount of oil from the Middle East.
China, Japan and Europe on the other hand…
The correct approach to a global economy depends on how much peace you expect.
When we depend on others we are richer, but we are more exposed to more risks from global instability.
Yet, peace seems to be low in the US agenda.
You’re just basing that on the past 150 years. 😉
Which is why I said wait and see last week. Long game.
Venezuela crude is really heavy sour as I recall. Like all crude oil, it Has to be refined at a special refinery on an island someplace for the first stage and then another cycle some place else.
Also most of the USA Texas /New mexico crude is shipped out to specific refineries for that product.
Much of the Canuck crude is out of the Tar Sands deposits, and is just as that name says. Comes across the border and gets diluted for the first of two times.
A complex business!!
I was in the business for a few years and owned some heavy crude production in Wyoming.
Great post, Mish, please give us more.
#goldenage
Everyone is hiding under Trump’s and Putin’s beds these days to know what they’re up to next.
Putin is ensuring his country’s survival. Trump is sublimating America’s interests to Israel’s.
Unless Putin gets around to impregnating a massive number of young Russian women, Russia is toast in the medium to long term. Actively fighting to achieve a Pyrrhic victory in the Ukraine isn’t ensuring Russian survival – it’s hastening a more rapid decline. Russia may “win” in Ukraine, but that doesn’t alter the reality that post-Ukraine, Russia is still a declining,loser state. It has only two claims to be taken seriously: nukes and oil/gas. Which basically makes it a poor, knock-off combination of France and Libya. It won’t have the people to throw at places like Ukraine or the Caucasus much less maintain influence over the ‘stans. It might even find itself on the receiving end of a nice little quid pro quo from China regarding how much Russian territory is actually part of the “ancient Han empire,” and rightfully a part of China.
As to the second part of your statement, how does letting Israel defend itself (and engaging in a much more justifiable military intervention than what Russian can claim v. Ukraine) equate to “sublimating America’s interests”?
Actually fewer people in a country means MORE of everything for the remaining people. As in more land, more resources, more open roads (less traffic), more homes etc.
Having lots of nukes and oil/gas combined with a low population will make for a VERY prosperous country. Unless of course you think living in crowded conditions like China has is something you’d like the US/West to aspire to.
Sure, they’re using shovels to fight Ukraine and stealing chips out of wash machines. They’re just like Libya – if Libya had MIRVd hypersonic missiles.