In the wake of Hurricane Helene, Florida faces another direct hit. Check out the new AI model.
Extreme Impacts
AccuWeather reports ‘Extreme impacts’: Milton to become major hurricane, barrel ashore near Tampa Bay midweek
A state of emergency has been declared in Florida ahead of Milton, which is forecast to plow into the western peninsula on Wednesday as a major hurricane, packing wind gusts up to 140 mph and 15 feet of storm surge.
Just days after the devastating impacts of Hurricane Helene, another significant tropical threat to the U.S. is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico. AccuWeather hurricane experts are warning that Milton, now a tropical storm, will strengthen into a major hurricane and plow ashore in the west-central Florida peninsula later this week.
Impacts ranging from a devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts, pounding surf and tornadoes are expected in Florida as Milton moves through during the middle of the week. Because of the risk, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency and is urging that preparations to protect life and property should begin immediately.
“The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene,” added AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “The deep, warm waters can act like rocket fuel for Milton, allowing for rapid intensification.”
AI Model
From Meteorologist Bryan Bennett
MOST ACCURATE MODEL: I’ve been watching the brand new (experimental) EC-AIFS model this season. It has, hands down, outperformed legacy models. It’s an artificial intelligence deep learning model created by ECMWF. So, it is an improved version of the already powerhouse European model.
➡️ With Helene, four days out from landfall it was only 50 miles off of the eventual landfall. The GFS (American) model was 300 miles off.
FORECAST:
➡️ The overnight run of the EC-AIFS model has the storm making landfall into Sarasota County.
➡️ There is still a considerable spread in the other, also reliable, models and the NHC forecast cone includes most of the Florida peninsula.
BOTTOM LINE:
➡️ The EC-AIFS will likely be accurate to within 50-100 miles of its current prediction. This does include a potential direct hit to St. Petersburg/Clearwater/Tampa to the north and Fort Myers vicinity to the south.
➡️ Everyone in the Florida peninsula should be preparing for this storm. We’re looking at a landfall on Wednesday.
➡️ As always, follow guidance from the NHC and local officials.
Records Shattered
Florida Storm Chasers
Prepare Now
Milton Piles on After Helene
Hurricane tracking is among the best uses of AI, excellent predictive capability and no fact checking errors. Models will improve.
Please prepare. Best wishes.
cry me a river. You mean you can’t just buy some old, dilapidated condo that may fall and kill people, and ride it out for the rest of your life? Or in this case live in it forever without maintenance?
Rent dont buy (at least for the moment)
I’m picturing I-75 from Naples (where I usually summer) All lanes, north and south (now north Only), with EV’s stop and go, a/cs blasting, bumper to bumper, with NO Where to exit OR charge! 🤣 ☮️✝️
Swamp buggies can tow the stranded teslas out of the way.
sounds like the exodus from ancient egypt…………40 years in the desert……….
“Like the Jews fleeing Eqypt” is the comical way of saying it 🙂
The guy paddling around his house in a kayak near Tampa during Helene is going to need a submarine this go around.
If only we paid more in taxes this wouldn’t be happening.
Bumped up to Cat 4 hurricane now, I can feel the insurance premiums going up in real time!
What’s much more likely to happen is the collapse of some of the smaller insurers because they can’t pay out. Followed by more insurers pulling out of the Florida market as many others have done in the past few years.
I warned you about being a Florida real estate bagholder. Looks like it’s coming to fruition.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/the-great-florida-migration-is-coming-undone/ar-AA1rOI4N
Just made Cat 5. I live on the east coast, just north of where the eye is supposed to be as it exits to the Atlantic. Hopefully it will be down to a cat 1 by then. House is boarded up, buttoned up, and I’ll be holed up with the wife and Mr. J. Daniels.
Good luck.
Why has MAGA not figured out yet that these hurricanes are a Deep State conspiracy to prevent virtuous, honorable, and pious MAGA voters from casting their ballots for Trump? At a minimum, I would open an investigation in the relevant House committee.
That is what Mayorkas is for.
Insure as many dead Americans as possible.
You guys should investigate Senator Lankford as well. He actually tried to do deal with the border crisis.
The dealing with Border crisis and its consequences of Murder. Fentanyl. child trafficking, sex slavery will be dealt with when Trump assumes Office in January.
Just like he did last time!
The power will come from all the working class screwed over royally by Biden Harris.
As the Lad from N.C. stated it is no longer we the people, it is now us against them.
I remember well that there were no fentanyl deaths under Trump.
So true. If only the Great Orange God would use his Sharpie on a soon-to-be-disbanded NOAA map to will the hurricane to a blue state.
And at the same time, America braces for even higher home insurance rates all across the country.
I for one am tired of paying for all of the cleanup & rebuilding that’s going on along the Gulf Coast region. It’s time all of these homeowners start paying out the wazoo like people in FLAUSA are. If you can’t afford it, then move.
I’d add in the west coast fire/flood/drought people too
“Off Topic”
It has to be said, so I will be the first!
Trump Won, it’s over, if you saw Butler 2.0 you know what I am saying, because you equally witnessed what I did.
One of the Most “Spectacular and Authentic Moments” in American Political History!!! Wow!
I agree!
But it’s this euphoric feeling you’re having right now as well as the 100K+ people who attended the rally as well as the tens of millions of Trump supports around the country who will have this kicked in the gut feeling all over again when The System ensures he loses.
Can you imagine, Harris wining NC by 10K votes? The question will be how do we respond as a country of conservatives?
I hope I’m wrong, but it was a fantastic rally. I certainly hope the RFK Jr & Musk endorsements pay some dividends. The number of blacks & Hispanics moving to the right is tremendous, so I don’t look at polling which is nothing more than an extension of Big Tech that’s enormously biased towards Dems.
Climb aboard Jay, but I wish, with all do respect, to please leave the “Negativity” aside, as that is the other sides mantra.
Continue to view this from that which it was intended. A raw display of “Courage & Devotion” for a Country that has allowed Him & His Family to become “Prosperous & Free”!!!
I’m on board, Stu, but I’m gravely concerned about all the ways Dems can & will cheat.
I do hear you, let’s hope it’s irrelevant.
100+ at his rally What are you smoking?!?!
Trump says 100,000+
Butler police / Sec Service max expectation 60,000
Actual maybe 10,000
The crowd “maybe” encompassed 1 football field. Overlay the Steelers Stadium over the Butler Farm field and you’ll get some perspective. The biggest concert at the stadium was around 75,000, with 10,000 field seats. The only reason this looked so “huuugge” was that there was hardly anyone at the last one in Butler. There were more people at the summer tractor show than this past weekend, and JeepFest will be far bigger than Trump’s event.
Truth hurts
the truth is: KamlaToe would (if she actually held a rally) have a small fraction of attendees DJT gets. Does that Hurt?
not really, I don’t like her and her BS rally doesn’t change what I said
Nobody wants to pay taxes, but then everyone expects that the government will bail them out once they live in areas where they should not. Please keep moving to Florida…
One has nothing to do with the other in this case. These people did pay taxes and instead of getting what they paid for, they are told Harris spent the money to shelter illegals.
Actually not the case. FL is a net taker from Federal coffers, where the disaster relief is sourced. So FL is a leech on other states.
Why would AI be effective in hurricane prediction? Broad picture handled well by global models in most cases, eyewall cycling and mesoscale convection not so much. That is chaotic activity. Not random, but far from predictable so how can what we label ‘machine learning ‘ make improvements?
Bryan Bennett tweet is foolishness. NHC 3-day accuracy is under 100 nautical miles (also less than 100 standard mile) so 50-100 miles he tweets is just arm-waving hype less than 3 days out from landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml
OMG conservative Sarasota Herald Tribune headline!! Helene is the latest powerful hurricanes caused by climate change Geez maybe we best not build thousands of new houses and the strip malls that go with them ON A STATE THAT IS BASICALLY A SAND BAR!!
Correct. Probably not a good idea to keep building homes in Florida. However, North Carolina was hit harder than Florida. Should we stop building houses there as well?
Along rivers that’s an emphatic YES!
Hmmm. Throughout human history, we have built the majority of our cities, towns and villages next to rivers, lakes and oceans. Hard for humans to get by without water for drinking, irrigation, and transportation.
Well, it might be time to start rethinking these concepts.
A house in FL that sits near the beach should at least 10 feet off the ground. If you can’t afford to rebuild your home so that it sits above the flood zone, then you might need to move.
Lakes generally don’t flood, but rivers do. Again, we might want to rethink building all these homes that are in these flood planes. finding land or grading 5-10 feet higher might make a lot of sense going forward.
We are too far gone into global climate change that we both agree is real. And you yourself last week said that there’s zero chance that the world comes together and solves this crisis sooner rather than later.
And I would argue with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere that there’s probably very little we can do, unless part of your solution is to install gigantic CO2 sucking facilities all around the world.
As we battle climate change by moving to greener energy, part of the solution is to stop rebuilding in the near same manner as we’ve been doing to decades. Sure, building codes have gotten more stringent and in 3-5 more years of nasty hurricane weather, we might find that homes in these very at risk areas are uninsurable. I can’t imagine that this is too far down the road.
Well, trees and plants are CO2 suckers. And they output oxygen. Amazing.
Yep. And if we stop all our emissions today, those trees and plants will take more than a thousand years to remove the extra CO2 that man has added to the atmosphere.
The CO2 level was 280 ppm for the last 10,000 years and we have bumped that up to 418 ppm today.
Yep. Pretty much agree with all of that. We will have to change how and where we build to account for climate change. Because we are doing so little to prevent it from getting a lot worse.
Sadly, we cannot afford to suck much carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere at present. Way too expensive. And even if we stopped all emissions today (an impossibility) it would take a thousand years for natural processes to remove the extra CO2.
Repeat after me: CO2 Is NOT a poison.
Correct. It is not a poison. It is a greenhouse gas.
CO2 sucking is a tremendous waste of money, and won’t change a thing – even to a rounding error. Good for some well connected World Economic Forum company, though.
Correct.
build them outta brick….
QUOTED “Yes it is hitting perpendicular instead of running parallel to the Florida and making a turn. I just do not ever remember this happening before and I am Florida native 50+ years.”
Yep. The last time a hurricane hit Florida on this projected track was 1859.
Major hurricane Wilma 2005. I didn’t bother checking many years, but TS Kieth in 1988 went perpendicular into the FL gulf coast too.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/wilma2005.html
DR LEVI HAS THE BEST TROPICAL UPDATES/INFO PERIOD https://youtu.be/eAsbNPmjcIg?si=agl3GjNl-mb33c91
Not climate change, but Inflation is what makes the hurricanes much worse.
Why does no one mention this!
How is it that climate change hurricanes are “getting stronger” based on being “more damaging” simply because home values go up?
Even after Milton drowns Tampa Bay and destroys Orlando, Disney, the Villages, and Daytona, it will be just a small mess compared to the total destruction inflicted if hurricane Kamala ever makes landfall.
Tampa is a city. It is highly unlikely for a hurricane to drown a body of water.
As for people in the greater Tampa-St. Pete area, good luck as you’ll need it!
At least hurricane Milton will save me vacation money by clearing out Disney, as opposed to Kamala who will cost me more.
Though, Trump made my taxes go up huuugely, so screw him too.
Obviously, climate change is a hoax.
It’s not climate change, it’s “shared social responsibility” where every American will soon chip in to help keep those Florida insurance costs down. You guys living in the midwest need to chip in and pay for those boomers living in Florida, it’s the only fair thing to do. /s
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-insurance-crisis-federal-risk-1961767
“”Even if my bill doesn’t move or go anywhere, I think the United States government and Congress [have] to start realizing that we have to amortize the risk, we have to spread this risk around. It can’t just be on one state or two states to deal with this.”
See guys, you have to spread the risk around, we’re all in this together. We are all Floridans now. Maybe Ron Desantis should ship hurricanes to Martha’s Vineyard in those buses.
The private insurance companies are going to go broke.
Meet your new property insurance agent: The Federal Department of Insurance.
Backed by nothing, but required for Fannie/Freddie backed mortgages. Consider property insurance a new tax to support more government workers.
Again: B.R.O.K.E.
This is just another channel through which the red states mooch on the blue states. It’s the patriotic duty of the blue states to bail out the MAGA moochers while being called liberals that are good for nothing.
I wonder what two hurricane hits will do to insurance premiums in Florida. All this climate hoax is getting expensive but I’m raking in the profits.
oh and if you own a Tesla cyber truck, good luck finding insurance….
https://www.torquenews.com/11826/geico-terminating-insurance-coverage-tesla-cybertrucks-says-type-vehicle-doesnt-meet-our
Dear xxxxx
We would like to thank you for choosing GEICO for your insurance needs. After a careful review of your policy records, we have determined that we are unable to continue your insurance coverage for the 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK.
We have taken this action for the following reason(s): We are unable to insure your 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK xxxxxxx because this type of vehicle doesn’t meet our underwriting guidelines.
Therefore, we must notify you as follows:
ALL COVERAGE ON THE 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK PROVIDED BY GEICO CASUALTY COMPANY, UNDER THE ABOVE POLICY NUMBER, WILL NON-RENEW AS OF 12:01 A.M. ON xx/xx/xx.
We are able to continue coverage on the remaining vehicle(s) on your policy.
doesn’t tesla offer insurance?
Is it a conspiracy theory that these hurricanes are being created or amplified by technology which could also be used to neutralize them? Oh well, I will wait till people wake up. Most people still think that the Pfizer and Moderna jabs were vaccines
The sky is falling and it’s someone else’s fault. Is that about right? Hell of a way to go through life…
If the people haven’t woken up by now they never will.
That is very possible. On the other hand, if everyone suffers a Wipeout event, then they could all wake up, but there may no longer be any opportunity to reverse course. 🤔
Depends. Does this theory only apply to tropical cyclones, or mid- and high-latitude ones as well?
You don’t “wake up” from stupid.
Shhhhhh. Don’t say climate change!
Bogie said it to Becall right in front of Johnny Rocco in Key Largo.
Probly wasn’t a good idea to build the mega mansions on the flood plain…
My soon to be landlady is a double loan owner (a recently closed on house and a HELOC on the townhome I will be hopefully renting). I hope she can sleep well at night with Uncle Miltie on the way.
Stuff happens.
Doubling of insurance premiums happens
Wait until that Georgia chemical company’s policies come up for renewal. Gee wiz, i mean, it’s not like it poisons the neighborhood EVERY year!
I topped off gas tanks of our cars and filled three 5-gallon containers for generator (if needed). Surprised that gas price has not gone up. Paid $3.08/gal at Wawa in Orlando this morning.
Jeff Green will be making sure his Tesla fleet is fully charged
One thing is for certain: FEMA will be a joke.
“Is” a joke
Clearly when the Democrats win the White House, and both chambers of Congress, the Department of Insurance will become the primary holder of all property insurance policies.
It is always best to have the most Bankrupt entity in the world back private (and public) property.
Thanks for making me feel B.R.O.K.E. again Mish.
We’re screwed.
Common they’ll just print more some money to recover any damage. It’s like a few hundred billion here and there is just small change.
you mean mouse click more currency.
That’s what you get for living on a peninsula.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Darwin
You have a point.
“The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene,” added AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “The deep, warm waters can act like rocket fuel for Milton, allowing for rapid intensification.”
Correct Mish. Just as scientists have been saying for a few decades now. The warmer ocean water provides extra fuel that allows hurricanes to intensify faster. Which causes greater economic damage.
That’s why the economic costs will keep increasing as ocean waters continue to get warmer. And it will become increasingly difficult to afford insurance or even find a company willing to insure you.
Best of luck to everyone who will be in the path of Milton.
Bottom line is that hurricanes have been a seasonal menace for at least a couple hundred years, and they’re one reason we have a free nation; since the French offered Washington the support of their fleet for four months or so, when they pulled them out of the Caribbean to avoid damage from hurricanes. There also are an ever increasing number of “targets” for them with each passing year, as more houses, condo’s, etc; are built along the SE coastline. The Mayans eventually got tired of rebuilding and moved inland; but Floridians are taking much longer to wake up to the seasonal risk as long as someone is willing to provide an insurance policy!
Yep. All true.
Pay me now or pay me later! We’ve always been a wait and see society. It’s normal when dealing with long term things. If it lasts long enough for me it’ll be someone else’s problem. Why worry now? Few understand that water runs the atmosphere and hence the weather. Water has over 3000x the volumetric heat capacity of air. You can’t change the temperature of the air long term without changing the water temperature. What we’re seeing is this massive thermodynamic load, unloading into the atmosphere. And it won’t stop until we can reduce the sun’s insolation and/or increase the earth’s reradiation. That… is a big ask.
Yep. A 1C increase in global temperature means the atmosphere can hold 7% more water than it did a hundred years ago. More water plus higher temperatures for that water. Thank goodness that 90% of the excess heat that the world is accumulating is ending up in the oceans. However, that warmer water ends up fueling hurricanes and allowing them to intensify faster than in the past.
Thank goodness that the electric vehicle mandate is here to save us.
Sorry. That won’t help us much at all.
Atlantic Ocean has been cooling since 24 May 2024 & scientists don’t know why. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2444394-part-of-the-atlantic-is-cooling-at-record-speed-and-nobody-knows-why/
Yes. After hitting the highest temperature (86F) since 1982 in Feb, this area of the Atlantic cooled dramatically to 77F by July. However, it is already warming up again.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/large-patch-of-the-atlantic-ocean-near-the-equator-has-been-cooling-at-record-speeds-and-scientists-can-t-figure-out-why
‘Adding more pipelines to draw oil from the Permian will increase the oil reserves in the Permian’ Papa Dave
You have lost all credibility mate
Oh look. It’s Eddy. The coward. Are you ever going to answer my questions on the Permian?
Let’s try again. Just one question this time. Easy Peasy.
What is your prediction for Permian production one year from now? You post your number for everyone here to see, and I will post my number for everyone to see. If you are right, and I am wrong, you can lord it over me. Think of the fame and glory you will receive from everyone here. Surely you want to show everyone what a great prognosticator you are!
Come on you coward.
Let me guess. You won’t give me your prediction, because you are afraid to look stupid. Which is why you have been dodging my question over and over again. Instead you will make some other useless prediction. Or you will post a link or copy and paste from another old article that I read long ago.
Just know that I am going to keep calling you out for the coward that you are until you man up and give us all your prediction for Permian production a year from now.
There are a lot of things that scientists don’t know. Like how gravity works.
They know how gravity works. They launched a space craft at Pluto and it got there.
They do not know why gravity works.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_gravitational_theory
scroll down to Modern Era. 😉
Where’s my anti-gravity shoes then?
F=MGm/r^2, easy peesy
I’ve started closing my storm shutters and am bringing in everything on my pool deck etc.
Even if West Palm doesn’t get a direct hit as it comes across the state it looks likely that we’ll still be getting strong winds.
Best of luck to you.
Come on bots, no need to downvote this.
GDP is going to go up 0.5%.
Florida might be kinda happy when Milton arrives, as Florida was basically ignored by the Helene coverage. Dang NC was stealing all our media!!!!