You can open the doors, but you can’t force anyone to go through them.
Texas governor Greg Abbott allows restaurants, retail stores and malls to open at 25% capacity in most areas, and 50% capacity in some rural areas.
But open for business is one thing while customer traffic is another.
From that perspective, Texas is Barely Open,as malls, and restaurants remain empty.
The Domain mall in Austin, Texas, is open for business – unlike most of its 100 upscale shops – as the state entered its first work week of eased pandemic restrictions in the hopes of rekindling the economy.
“I’ve seen one customer today – they didn’t buy anything,” said Taylor Jund, who was keeping watch over an empty Chaser clothing store. “There’s absolutely no one coming around here.”
Christy Armstrong, who works for a food distribution company, made the rounds with her restaurant clients across the Houston area on Monday. During a stop at Arnaldo Richards’ Picos Mexican restaurant in central Houston, she saw a handful of customers sitting at a bar, separated from one another by Plexiglas barriers.
“It’s sad to know that this is the first Monday we’ve reopened, and a lot of the places are still very empty,” Armstrong said. “I’m a little shocked it’s so dead out.”
With temperatures in the 90s, Texans flocked to parks, beaches and rivers over the weekend. Beachgoers packed the shore in the resort town of Galveston, though police said most people seemed to be practicing social distancing.
A large gathering of youth at a lake outside Lubbock, in West Texas, prompted authorities to say on Sunday they were closing the beach there back down.
Reflections on Opening Safely
It’s easy to open safely, if no one shows up.
Worried or Broke?
Are people worried, or are they broke?
Regardless, what sense does it make to open up, if no one shows up?
Malls and Restaurants
From a mall perspective, stores have to have someone watching every department.
This take a minimum number of people no matter how few workers show up.
Chicken or Egg?
If people are broke and don’t show to shop, stores will be very slow at recalling furloughed workers. In turn, this ensures those who are broke due to lack of work will stay that way.
Eventually this will sort itself out of course, but the process may take a lot longer than most think.
Job Losses by Size of Company: Who Lost the Jobs?
In case you missed it, please see Job Losses by Size of Company: Who Lost the Jobs?
Also check out ADP Reports 20 Million Jobs Lost: A Disaster Comparison Three Ways
That 20 million is definitely an undercount given Unemployment Claims Top 3 Million for 7th Straight Week.
The 7-week running total is 33.476 million.
Mish
I never thought I would be glad to ever see road traffic, but in a way, I missed it. Traffic shows people living their lives.
I was at South Padre Island, and the beach was fairly crowded, and people were excited to go. I went to a restaurant and got something to eat. There was a requirement to wear a mask. There was just this natural revulsion to wanting to eat in a restaurant, so I got it to go. I do not understand the purpose of wearing a mask in a restaurant and then having to take it off to eat. But I have no need to go to the mall because of Amazon and Walmart, and I have not lost my job. The bigger thing, which the article misses, is that finally we are starting to see some traffic. You are finally unable to go 70 MPH at rush hour the whole time in Dallas and Houston. I was actually relieved to see some people getting out of their homes and back on the roads, so the malls are not the real measure of activities. The roads are.
We have the RIGHT fighting with the LEFT and Visa Versa and who really knows who’s “RIGHT” when you have nothing LEFT this very perplexing! I say OPEN America just to Find out we will have to Close it for the same reasons we had to close it in the first place. There is no Right or Wrong answer it is what you believe to get you through this safely if you are going to let the Government decide how to live or dictate your obligations your going to drive yourself crazy….This is why you are in the position you are in NOW! Social Distance for your own poragative, wear a mask for your own safety, live for your own protection and follow the law as intended. We are in a struggling economy, now more than ever is the time to re-evaluate your future and LIVE FOR YOU (and if you have a family your family) NOTHING ELSE MATTERS! Surviving through this is what makes us the winners not going out and spending frivolous on things you cannot afford, being around others that make you incomplete that you think make you complete don’t fool yourself because you will only find yourself in bigger predicament that you should have been out of sooner than latter. Lastly, Hearing things that you don’t want to hear are probably the things you NEEDED to HEAR! We are all in this together whether you want to believe it or not!
Sure, having hundreds of people going in the water together is a great idea. I am sure they are not transmitting any disease between them…
KTLA “News” at ten was showing live helicopter feed of people on a beach in L.A. for the grunion run. They also showed cars lined up bumper to bumper along a street next to another beach. I haven’t heard of any surge in cases due to beach goers in Orange County. the other week end.
By the way, the so called lock downs didn’t stop transmission of Covid, but it is trashing the economy, which is going to result in deaths that are unaccounted for yet.
You have a lot of people screaming about ending stay at home orders, and wanting to be free, but in reality they are staying home. They are really just loud mouthed hypocrites, and the lack of people in the restaurants and stores are proof….
Many of the relatively small number of people screaming about ending stay at home orders only mean it for OTHERS, for the OTHERS who do all the work to support their own “investments” and “lifestyle”.
When some of those folks on this board start saying that they have no problem with “going back to normal NOW!” and having all their family members “going back to normal NOW!” and would be perfectly fine with any of them coming down with COVID-19 and ending up dead 2 weeks later, because “the odds were low and that’s just how it goes” … then I’ll wait for them all to start DOING that …
I haven’t heard too many people other than Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick say they are willing to die for this economy, to die for the President’s re-election, and then put their lives on the line where their mouth is.
Seems that even Trump, one of those original “screamers”, is ticked off at his valet for coming down with the disease, now screaming that he is “not being protected enough!”
“Many of the relatively small number of people screaming about ending stay at home orders only mean it for OTHERS, for the OTHERS who do all the work to support their own “investments” and “lifestyle”.”
Many of them are trying to save their own businesses and others need to work for their own survival.
the case FOR negative interest rates https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/advanced-economies-need-deeply-negative-interest-rates-by-kenneth-rogoff-2020-05
Cities and towns should be shutting down streets and allowing restaurants to put tables outside. I would go to an outdoor restaurant with properly spaced out tables. Retail s stores are dead until we have a vaccine. Why risk it when I can buy online.
And the beach is not a bad place to be – all that UV & warmth. Just have to not touch anyone. Shouldn’t be that hard. Beaches are popular here in Jacksonville, FL. And we are doing very well in terms of few cases and a miniscule positive test rate.
Science says this virus spreads through people who have no symptoms.
Please educate me on how you stop the spread?
Maybe all we need is a healthcare system that is prepared for sick people showing up in twice the capacity at urban areas…..
AND THE REST OF US CAN GET ON WITH OUR LIVES?
sorry about the shouting, been cooped up recently.
When something is spread by people with no symptoms, there are only two ways to stop the spread. One is by closing everything, and preventing any contact. The other is by requiring everyone to wear a mask, so that people who are sick, but who don’t realize it, can not spread the disease. I prefer the second solution, but so long as people resist the idea of wearing a mask to protect others, we will struggle to reopen.
People are smart, they know the outdoors is the least likely transmission vector for C19 but still want to have some fun. Restaurants and bars are dead (for the next year +), the restrictions will keep some away, those at high risk will stay away and fear will keep away the rest away.
Personally, I will be back getting a hair cut (on 8 weeks here in SEA) and doing some retail shopping – which is less of risk than my adventures to get food or grab something at the hardware store.
Yep. Outdoor parks and beaches are going to replace bars/restaurants, even for healthy and low-risk 20/30s group, for as long as weather allows. I’m seeing it happening already at local parks on any nice day we’ve had – small groups of anywhere from 2-10 people with a cooler full of beer and food. Why would you go to a enclosed space with partitions and a server/bartender that’s clearly spooked to serve you when you can do that? Some risk still involved for sure, but people are much more tolerant of risks they feel they have some control over (small group of friends) vs being surrounded or served by strangers.
People are not visiting malls and restaurants because they do not want to be treated like potential lepers. They want to enjoy their visit instead of being sprayed with disinfectants and served by masked individuals looking like they are from hospitals…
Nah I don’t think that’s the case for most folks. They don’t like the risk that Covid19 presents. Compared to really severe illness, going to the mall doesn’t seem so important.
I won’t be visiting any stores or restaurants unless everyone there is wearing a mask.
I manage a small bar/restaurant in the Philadelphia area with a staff of 10. As far as myself and the rest of the staff is concerned we’d rather be closed and at least be able to collect unemployment based on our incomes prior to all this (in addition to the extra $600) as opposed to opening up and having to take our chances with consumer sentiment right now. That’s even with most of us taking pay cuts (A lot of people outside the industry don’t realize you can do pretty well for yourself in a major market, though you sacrifice things like stable family life, sanity, and normal hours – I’m taking a 45% cut myself even with the extra $600 through the end of July). We’re all spending less money and can at least make it work for now and maintain some ability to save and/or service any debts we may have. We’ll take turns on an informal basis filling pre-order wine/beer to-go sales for curbside pickup just to cover the businesses rent and health insurance costs for the month.
When we finally are allowed to have customers even walk through the door again, and assuming there are restrictions in place, we’re basically going to turn the place into a full on retail beer/wine/food shop. It’s the bottom floor of 3 story corner row-home that’s 15 feet wide and there is no way we could adequately maintain any kind of safe distancing for people who’d actually want to come in and hang out for a drink. Employees don’t want to work in the kind of environment, constantly full of fear, that would create and the only customers that would want to hang out at a bar with plexiglass partitions aren’t worth the trouble dealing with. We’re trying to get everyone prepared mentally to deal with anywhere from 6 to 24 months of this, and at best hope to be able to pay everyone at least $15-20/hr and still cover health insurance costs for everyone(we very generously receive full coverage which is rare for the industry) until we can finally get back to real business. If it goes on longer than that or there doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel I’m sure we’re going to lose people and most of us are trying to put together career back-up plans now anyway just in case. It’s a hell of a situation and some of those with kids won’t even be able to hang in there for 6 months at $15-20/hr.
Multiply this scenario by a thousand (or more) for every zip code in a major metro area and you get an idea of the scale of devastation this is about to unleash.
I don’t disagree. I run a small business, and we are open, but down 60%, with no end in sight. It is tempting to just close. Good luck.
…or they don’t want to be harassed and infected by selfish morons. We should take a poll.
“Regardless, what sense does it make to open up, if no one shows up?”
It keeps Meal Team Six from showing up on the statehouse steps.
How much business in US is tourism? A lot must be foreign tourism, a lot national. Are there any flights going there…must be … ? Here in Europe there are no flights that I know of. There were a round of repat flights a few weeks ago, and now India is about to run a couple dozen one off for repat, restricted access. South Africa is sort of an example of how even those are difficult, hard to believe the US cannot get nationals repatriated even. Here Qatar airways planned repat flights and were all cancelled, other outbound flights to repatriate south africans didn’t take outgoing home.
And the timeline of alerts from 2 May
says the same. Other stories are of passengers left in the plane on the runway for hours.
Not sure how this is all going to shape back into anything “normal” with passengers not trusting proximity of travel, and countries establishing different laws ad hoc, without there being any synchronisation because of the level of epidemic and related all varying between countries.
Sometimes this all spooks me, like it is all being done for some other reason, like awaiting some cataclysmic event 🙁 . What is really odd for me is that last year when thinking ahead for this year, all that I could normally relate to as current was not there ! It was just held back or stillness. I even mentioned it right off hand in a reply to family where the topic was who was travelling where etc. , I said no one is going anywhere as a flat statement that did not fit, and that before any notion of pandemic. Few people have not experienced events they cannot explain. What is happening now around the world is odd also. At the beginning of the pandemic it was unpleasant and tense for being tuned in, mixed with a thankfulness for being in a relatively favourable circumstance. Now though I’m feeling disturbed by where events are going, though instead I should feel relief at slow relaxation of restrictions. I say all this just to say it, I don’t know better than the next person, everyone has their senses and they are all as valid in their own way.
What is really going on though ?
I fully expect that many countries will ban flights from the US, and/or require anyone who has been in the US to quarantine 14 days before entering their country.
It probably is pretty much as it seems to be, working through a plague. Maybe read a bit about previous similar events in history to gather a sense that this has happened before.
I live in San Antonio and people are not going out, at least where I live. I only go out for groceries. Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick can go ahead and die for the economy.
I live in Texas. After Trump’s “liberate” tweets we started to see neighbors gathering in groups and not practicing social distancing. Parents throwing big birthday parties for their kids in their front yards. I passed by a restaurant filling orders at their takeout window and nobody in line was wearing masks or practicing social distancing including a mother with twins in a carriage. The next month will be very interesting. And Lt. Governor Dan Patrick is paying for Ms. Luther’s $3,500+ fine for opening her A La Mode Salon early. Great way to set an example. Hope the taxpayers aren’t paying for her fine.
Stupid is as stupid does bubblelife. Watch from the sidelines as deaths go beyond the 3000 per month.
Many people have figured out that the risk to themselves and their children is vanishingly small. When the total death count is a few per 10,000 and confined to specific demographics, then what is the risk to the average person? Ditch the mask and get on with living!
… and please don’t look to the healthcare system for help when your “figuring” has proven wrong.
So….you are okay with the death rate so long as it is not you or your children, just someone else? A six-week old baby has become the youngest victim
I’m very fit along with my wife and children. However, my wife and I look after are parents who are 85+ yo. It’s not about us. I’m concerned about them and other elderly/vulnerable people. Of course the economy needs to re-open, but until effective therapies and vaccine are available, please practice social distancing and wear a mask in public spaces. The world doesn’t revolve around you dimwit.
Regarding the 20 million jobs lost, don’t expect the unemployment to be that high. We are now into the 8 weeks of PPP, so small businesses are incentivized to hire back all their employees and to pay them for doing nothing. Thus, a portion of those laid off have been hired back..for now. The real employment question is what will happen in July, once the 8 weeks of PPP are over. Businesses, if they are not back to running 100%, (and they won’t be), will have no choice but make layoffs, and they will be layoffs that are permanent.
As for whether people have money, on the one hand, people on unemployment are making more than they did working (at least, if they are getting their checks – apparently some states are seriously backlogged), but on the other hand, people who are still employed, but with reduced hours or reduced salaries, have less to spend. In the end it’s a mix, but I think the real problem is that the velocity of money has come to a screeching halt due to uncertainty. Will I have a job in a month? Will Covid last another year? No one knows, and when uncertainly is high, people are very, very frugal.
Just a question: do we data from way back on how consumption was like just after the Great Recession?
“ so small businesses are incentivized to hire back all their employees”
That’s been my issue with the PPP. You can also keep the money, fire employees and hope conditions improve. Two year money at 1% sounds pretty good, especially if regular financing is not available.
Well, that’s true, however, if you don’t try to use it to hire the people back, you might be committing fraud to take the loan. There is definitely indication that they plan to prosecute people that don’t follow the rules. They set up a window to return the money if you don’t plan to use it as intended, and if you return it by that date, you won’t be prosecuted.
For the sake of clarity…
We can all agree the economy is in the toilet for who knows how long…
The stawk market is operating in an alternate reality.
Enlightened by psychedelic drugs back in the day.
Businesses Struggle to Lure Workers Away From Unemployment
Some workers are making more from unemployment than at their old jobs, complicating re-openings (wsj) https://www.wsj.com/articles/businesses-struggle-to-lure-workers-away-from-unemployment-11588930202
Wait until the weekend–the mall and restaurants will be packed. That’s when people with jobs will be out in full force. The beach/park crowd are the ones without weekday jobs and they are conserving cash for now.
Yeah we need a longer period, otherwise it’s just an anecdote.
But I think Mish made a good point i.e. people could be broke.
I disagree. The people without jobs are on “unemployment with steroids” and should have cash, at least if they are getting the payments (apparently some states are seriously backlogged, and there is a 3 or more week delay before the checks start). It’s the people with jobs, but reduced hours and salaries, that will be conserving cash. I don’t expect a weekend boom.