Let’s discuss the striking volatility in long-term bond yields today.
What Happened?
The timing of Trump’s obliterate “Truth” (Yes, that’s the idiotic name for posts on Truth Social) was Mar 21, 2026, 5:44 PM.
Note that If someone posted “Trump is a fool” that would constitute a “Truth” as well.
On March 23, 2026, 5:23 AM Trump was pleased to report Two Days of “very good and productive conversations with Iran regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities.”
Amusing Aspects
- Trump threatens a war crime. Think about that one.
- He did so in the midst of allegedly “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. Think about that one, too.
- Iran denies the conversations.
- Trump will not name the Iranian mediators the US is allegedly negotiating with. Do they exist anywhere but Trump’s mind?
History Recap
March 6, 2026 6:50 AM: Trump Says No Deal except ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER’
Truth Social: There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).” Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
‘Unconditional Surrender’
March 6: 2026: Irony of the Day: Trump Demands ‘Unconditional Surrender’ by Iran Without Declaring War
Please note the US has not declared war yet. And declaration of war is the constitutional responsibility of Congress, not the president.
Trump was seriously stupid enough to believe the war would be over in a few days. Trump ignored military advice and instead said that he “had a feeling”.
Instead of taking military advice, Trump listened to his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Senator Ted Cruz, and Senator Lindsey Graham.
When the results totally blew up in Trump’s face, Trump started seeking a way out.
On the escalate-to-deescalate theory, Trump threatened war crimes.
Trump to ‘Obliterate’ Iran’s Power Plants if Strait Not Open in 48 Hours
March 21, 2026: Trump to ‘Obliterate’ Iran’s Power Plants if Strait Not Open in 48 Hours
The threat, if carried out, would “likely constitute war crimes”, says Grok.
Regarding War Crimes
Regarding war crimes, I posted Grok’s synopsis. Click the above link for Grok’s superb analysis.
Furthermore, a constitutional law expert friend, who is much more of a hawk on military interventions than others in the email conversation below, had this to say.
You know that I often disagree with [names redacted] on repeated assertions that US military actions are war crimes. International law is complex, fact-specific and very seldom does the US clearly violate international law. And I hate hyperbole.
But the threatened strikes would have been black and white lay-down war crimes. The Geneva Convention forbids strikes against civilian infrastructure calculated to threaten the lives of civilians to pressure concessions. Trump very specifically laid that out as the intent of his proposed strikes. It’s really mind-boggling.
That brings us to this morning.
Trump Postpones Strikes on Iran, Claims Progress in Talks that Iran Denies
The markets are pleased with progress on Iran that Iran denies.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Tehran was in talks with the U.S., according to state media, saying there was “no dialogue” with Washington.
So, someone is lying. Perhaps both sides. Such is the nature of war.
But lies are always the nature of Trump. He is indeed the world’s biggest liar.
After begging for help, with denials everywhere, a Delusional Trump Now Says “WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”
It’s not just on Iran. Trump lies about inflation, oil, food prices, Canada, Greenland, literally everything.
This prompted me to write The World’s Biggest Liar Accuses the Media of Lies and Treason
“Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing,” said Senator Ted Cruz.
Please check out in the above link the amazing list of people who nailed Trump for what he is, only to becomes the world’s biggest Trump suckups.
Returning to the Bond Market
The gyrations today are one for the record books.
The 30-year long bond finished about 4.912 percent, giving up about half the maximum gain.
Trump says Iran desperately wants a deal. I am sure that is a lie even if discussions are taking place.
Since Trump just gave Iran 5 more days, I expect Iran to take them.
Iran has no reason to believe any deal that Trump makes. Nor does any other country in the world.
Iran would be wise to say no to any deal unless Congress puts it in writing and Trump signs off on it.
For What?
That’s the Trumpian stupidity of it all. The best Trump can hope for is something similar to the deal President Obama negotiated.
Even if the deal is worse, MAGA will cheer.
But the oil markets, natural gas markets, diesel fuel, and fertilizer markets will not return to pre-war conditions for many months even if there is a deal soon.
The short-to intermediate damage is done. The situation won’t be normal by election time.
Addendum
WSJ: President Trump said on Friday that he is considering winding down the war. He said it isn’t clear that there are any leaders left alive who Washington could negotiate with.
Yet, we are talking to someone, and Trump says those talks are going well. Meanwhile, Iran denies any talks. And Trump will not name who the administration is talking with.
Trump says so many obvious lies he cannot keep anything straight.
Addendum
I found my post where I covered Iran honoring terms of the deal.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/good-news-worth-cheering-biden-resumes-talks-with-iran-on-nuclear-deal/
Iran Honoring the Deal?
A lot of folks struggle when they come to realize that they born into a crime family. I get it. The cognitive dissonance can be fatal. But damn it! This is our crime family. And he is our war lord.
This is incorrect.
It should be….
The Ayatollah and I
So you would in effect, have the Liartollah and the Ayatollah.
A marriage made in heaven.
No. Just longing for proper grammar.
For those interested in the myriad of other product disruptions as a result of Trumps war, here is a good article from the IEA.
https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets
For instance 50% of global sulfur production is shipped through the strait of Epstein (trump and bibi’s new name for it).
They haven’t even used all the land the stole from the Palestinians, and now they’re on to Lebanon:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-minister-calls-annexation-southern-lebanon-2026-03-23/?taid=69c1a19ef8e548000120bccf
Some other ME neighbors might start to be concerned regarding the aspirations of the war mongering duo…
They won’t as long as they stash their stolen assets and their grifted millions in western countries.
The announcement is to give the US Marines need a few more days to sail into position.
All 5000 of them?
And then what? I’m on the edge of my seat, don’t let me down.
Minutes before Trump’s announcement, $800 million in trades made on oil prices
https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-iran-updates-oil-futures-trade-suspicious-betting-activity-usa-world-news/1061ef6b-5fef-401c-b469-98016ccdb9c3
Can the insiders/conspirators be subjected to a RICO Act prosecution?
After all it is collusion to commit insider trading with a government official.
Just like the silver “crash”.
meanwhile in the United States we need this in so many places! Billionaires should step up and fund them! https://www.bnd.com/news/local/education/article315048607.html
Sounds like a good idea. Why can’t Trump ask his billionaire friends to fund the Iran war, just like they fund the ball room. Both are projects that don’t make any sense.
Think about it Mish. He also said he was consulting a past president (one he admires). All the currently living presidents said no. Plus, we know he would never consult with Biden or Obama. So, I am thinking he must be consulting with Reagan. Which means he may be negotiating with this Iranian leader, who was active at the time – Ruhollah Khomeini.
The Ayatolla of Christmas past.
Trump may be slowly realizing that he is waging war on American pocket books and brokerage accounts, and, one step removed, on the real economy. No war started by American presidents since WW2 had the potential to blow the US economy out of the water. This one has strong potential. No wonder that Trump is starting to insinuate that it was Hegseth’s idea to go to war with Iran without rhyme or reason.
Isn’t Trunp’s lies the most pathetic leadserhip excuse this country has EVER HAD?! WTF HAS EVEN HELD A CANDLE TO THIS? God forbid a Dem even id a fraction of these.
For the record, an analysis of Trump from his first term by Reuters found he averages EIGHT LIES A DAY.
WTH! Are we not entitled to a hell of a lot more truth from our President?? Supposedly “negotitating with someone in Iran” and not naming them is BIG BS! If I were the Dems I’d say then take the Peace and no friggin $200 Billion to go piss off. F***, I’m sick of Trump’s spend all our money on defense and deficits. Don’t pass the supplmental and live within the already pathetic budget.
Pathetically bloated budget that is…
Yes, pathetic. But nothing more so than the Defense – oh, Dept of War (LMAO!) – $1 TRILLION 2006 budget. And that somehow is not enough for the Iran “excursion”?!
The insatiable demands for loan funds of the Federal Government are crowding out private investment.
Here’s a stream of the progress:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/23/iran-war-live-tehran-vows-to-completely-close-hormuz-if-power-plants-hit?update=4428510
Today was a great day to buy puts on the market. This mini-rally let me buy my puts at 30-50% discount. Now just need to wait and let Trump work his magic and crash the market.
Basically everything from oil, metals, stocks are all price-mismatched. Anyone can make money in this market simply buying puts/calls at the right moment. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Profits are on the way to save the day.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Indeed. And leveraged TSLA ETF puts (TSLQ) has been very very good to me.
However things play out, some people who are getting really burned (not to mention any normal American) have got to be getting sick of this. The unending lies and BS are just unworkable for so many things in the country.
Unless he dies, Trump will be around for another 1031 days to muck things up and muck them up good.
You reap what you sow. All I can do is profit.
Asian markets were opening ugly. Trump simply made up some crap about a deal in order to limit the damage and postpone the attack until the weekend when financial markets are closed.
You don’t need to be Nostradamus to figure that one out.
Lots of drops on the weekend. I was thinking so he could get ahead of the news and control the narrative
Trump is just signaling the Iranian leadership that he desperately wants to negotiate a way out of this mess. I noticed Lindsay Graham saying that the US should get rid of our bases in any country that doesn’t allow us to fly over. Sounds like a signal that we are ready to surrender to Irans terms.
“War Crimes”are utterly tiresome and almost entirely irrelevant. They get asserted by victors over the defeated as convenient. There is no “World Police” other than the US operating as they wish, with little or no accountability. The US may have indirectly created a dynasty in Iran. Trump could simply quote Netanyahu about obliterating Iran’s capability, blah, blah. and end the war and annoy Israel – the key warmongers.
They are very relevant to anyone who can think clearly.
Answer the following: Are independents, who will likely decide the election, more or less likely to vote for Trump?
So, mark yourself as someone who cannot think clearly.
With 34% of the voter count now, they are a force to be considered. With 56% of them being Men (higher % than R & D), that has got to count for that block, and with a staunch fight for issues over party, they are listening to what’s going on. I thinks it’s roughly a spilt with R & D in terms of vote help. Which ironically matches up with our election tally for R&D…
You do realize the “supreme leader” is an office instituted in the constitution of the Republic, chosen by the Council of Experts, who are all elected, and can overrule and impeach him.
Nothing to do with dynasty. Damn sight more democratic than a lot of governance in OECD countries, let alone the EU with its unelected and unaccountable Council and President.
While you’re at it, you should also check out Venezuela or Cuba, institutionally stronger democracies than you would think if the MSM is your only guide.
Even if Congress sign any ‘deal’. Why should anyone believe it? Trump has broken deals that he himself negotiated.
Nobody stops him. We’re a nation of 300 million people and nobody does anything.
Exactly. Americans have become lazy unprincipled freeloading slobs. Nobody would have put up with this shit 70 years ago
If you’re pissed, take a long look in the mirror and then start talking to your fellow citizens about how to get out of this mess. And don’t do it through the internet – face to face!
9/11 happened and then we let them build a giant militarized police intelligence state. Nobody wants to get disappeared. And like me, a lot of people are holding their breath for the fall election, hoping we can start to turn the ship around then.
But I’m angry. I don’t think Trump voters should be allowed to vote ever again. I think most of this administration belongs in prison. Those are the kinds of forces that would be released if we tried to fix this “outside the system.”
All traders should realize that anything Trump says is just to move the markets so his friends and family can profit.
Even if a deal was made and by some miracle lasted for a while, the underlying issue will still remain; Iran in the mind of its religious leaders, is obligated to obliterate the great Satin, namely Israel and America.
That’s just rhetoric to blame the leaderships economic failings on the US. Iran has never attacked anyone without provocation.
And when they have eliminated the great Satin, they’ll move on to the even greater Velour!
Caution; theey might ruff us up with burlap first!
What a load of bull.
All this time, Iran had the nuclear materials to make a dirty bomb and the missiles to deliver it. Iran did not do so, and still has not done so, in spite of the United States and Israel’s unprovoked attack on it.
We could just as easily talk about the religious fanatics in the United States babbling on about red heifers.
Iran is going to destroy Satin? but I need it for my pillow cases.
Anyway, try to stop living in fear. if you die a violent death, I can almost guarantee it will be at the hands of a fellow American.
its going to be alright.
Cars kill more of us than anything else.
I found my post where I covered Iran honoring terms of the deal.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/good-news-worth-cheering-biden-resumes-talks-with-iran-on-nuclear-deal/
Iran Honoring the Deal?
Iranian leaders know they would get obliterated for using nuclear weaponry. The only reason they want a nuke is to make sure the regime continues. Just like N. Korea.
They need nukes to protect themselves from Trump.
They can see what happened with Iraq and Bush.
Retired Turkish Admiral’s take on the situation using the past as instructive as to how this will play out: https://mavivatan.substack.com/p/from-the-1956-suez-crisis-to-the?r=268mt1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
That was a great read.
Excellent! Thank you for posting this…
“Iran has no reason to believe any deal that Trump makes. Nor does any other country in the world.”
Iran was in negotiations with the US when it was attacked…..by the US and Israel. Iran has already attempted good faith negotiations with the US and Trump stabbed them in the back. Trump is full of shit, Iran holds all of the cards in this war. Just like the Vietnamese, Iran simply has to survive and wait out the US. Before this is all over, I suspect troop deaths will increase, gas will be $5-$6 a gallon, and people will struggle to heat their homes this coming winter. The US will limp home with its tail between it legs and the average person will be poorer.
The Republicans will be monkey hammered this fall. Democrats will get it even worse if they do nothing about it should they win this fall.
I expect articles of impeachment to be started by the democrats on day one of the new Congress. Whether the Senate does anything is uncertain. If Trump goes too far the GOP may have no choice but to convict.
“Iran has no reason to believe any deal that Trump makes” Well, same can be said for Iran. A deal between two confirmed liars has no chance of survival, expect the war to continue probably before the end of the 5 day hiatus. Trump is desperately looking for an offramp as I believe he sees what little is left of his potentially positive legacy completely going up in smoke.
Trump is one the one who constantly lies and breaks agreements.
Iran has steadfastly held to every agreement it has signed.
Correct
Iran was complying with the JCPOA. Trump deceived Iran twice, bombing during bad faith negotiations. It pains me to say it, but we have become the world’s liar. (And our little attack poodle as well.)
Dear Dave,
Trump’s own generals and staff said Iran was honoring the terms of Obama’s deal. They started enrichment AFTER Trump stupidly killed it.
So did the CIA. Trump raged that they could not find any evidence that Iran was not complying with the JCPOA.
Needless to say, Trump must obey Israel, lest Netanyahu jerk his leash again.
I was not aware of that and if true, I stand corrected. It kind of conflicts with all the death to America/Israel chants.
Well, we have pop music on the topic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8hEtI9AI0U&themeRefresh=1
From Ai: The Iranian slogan “Death to America” (Marg bar Amrika) generally does not mean a literal desire for the death of all American citizens. It is widely understood by experts and interpreted by Iranian officials as “Down with the USA,” symbolizing a rejection of US hegemony, foreign policy, and interference in Iran
I asked Copilot. “have any of trump’s senior military leaders said Iran was honoring the terms of Obama’s deal during trump’s second term”
Answer, “Here’s the clearest, evidence‑based answer grounded in public reporting from Trump’s second term (2025–2026):
Short Answer (Definitive)
No. There is no public statement from any senior Trump administration or military leader in his second term saying that Iran was honoring the terms of Obama’s nuclear deal (the JCPOA). (Emphasis Copilot’s)
All available reporting from 2025–2026 instead describes Iran as far beyond JCPOA limits and accelerating its nuclear program.”
I asked essentially the same question for the first term and the response gave four or five definitive yes quotes.
There is no question that Trumped initiated accelerated nuclear development by Iran and there is no question in my mind the attacks are way beyond necessary to control the situation, but I believe to say Iran steadfastly held to the agreement is a stretch as it had to take a long time to construct the infrastructure they used for recent nuclear enhancement and their delivery systems.
I am not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand what is really going on and the motives to best prepare for what comes of this mess. It is difficult when the press is biased in opposite directions and the administration is led by a serial bloviating liar surrounded by his genuflecting puppets. It makes one wonder who claimed compliance and is the person still employed after the BLS statistician fiasco.
I errantly cut and pasted the first question asked, the second corresponding to the answer given was, “have any of trump’s senior military or other administration leaders said Iran was honoring the terms of Obama’s deal during trump’s second term?”
Dave, Trump withdrew from Obamas deal in 2015.
how hard is it for you to understand that there was no deal for Iran to abide by in 2025?
First Half & Mid‑2017: Verified Compliance
IAEA’s June 2, 2017 Report confirmed Iran:
Remained within the ≤ 300 kg stockpile limit of uranium enriched up to 3.67% U‑235.
Did not enrich uranium above 3.67%.
Kept all centrifuges under constant agency monitoring.
Had not pursued reprocessing or construction of new heavy-water reactor facilities (e.g., Arak IR‑40) 12.
AI on Chrome: Yes, during his first term, President Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, stated that Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), despite President Trump’s strong opposition to it. Reuters
+1
Key Details on Mattis’ Statement and Context:
I asked Copilot, WAS JCPOA enforce with any other parties after trump pulled out
“Short answer: Yes — the JCPOA continued to exist and was still implemented by the other parties (EU, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran) after the U.S. withdrew in 2018.
They publicly reaffirmed the deal, treated it as legally binding under the UN resolution, and attempted to keep it alive — though with diminishing effectiveness as U.S. sanctions crushed Iran’s economic incentives.
Below is the clear breakdown.
🌍 What Happened to the JCPOA After the U.S. Pulled Out?
1. The JCPOA legally remained in force for everyone except the U.S.
2. Europe, Russia, China, and Iran continued implementing the deal (initially)
After May 2018:
Europe even tried to shield companies from U.S. sanctions by activating the EU Blocking Statute in May 2018.
3. But U.S. secondary sanctions crippled the deal
Even though the JCPOA technically remained in force:
This meant the deal was “alive on paper” but economically hollow.
4. Iran eventually began phased noncompliance (2019 onward)
Because the remaining parties couldn’t deliver the economic benefits promised under the JCPOA:
(These details come from IAEA reporting and are consistent with the broader monitoring framework referenced in the search results.)
🧭 Bottom Line
Yes, I believe Mish to be absolutely correct in what he posted, but the JCPOA was enforce during the time Iran was developing their bomb and delivery systems following the date of his posts, just not with America nor ever with Israel. I do not believe either party had any right to enforce JCPOA, but the other parties did. The fact they did not is a reason not to trust them to enforce their deals.
I find it difficult to understand why the theme of this thread trends toward America wearing the black hat for wanting to keep nuclear capability from the country that has sponsored terrorism and Iran who has sponsored terrorism and openly chants its hate for America and Israel wearing the white hat. A terrorism cake with nuclear icing is not a combination for world peace. My belief is America is still the lamp shining from the hilltop albeit with some serious imperfections.
What terrorism?
Please notice what matters.
The attention on the Epstein files a is almost non existent.
To focus on such as the pearl of wisdom found in one of Epstein’s emails, where he proclaimed “The goyim exist only to serve us.”…What would that be? Anti-antisemitic? Too confusing for sheep to decipher.
Trump should be writing Outer Space fantasies as he seems to be living in that reality for quite awhile now. Iran must also be confused trying to figure the Donald out? Almost everybody else in America is also getting embarrassed by Trumps verbal fantasies on the World stage.
To not be so embarrassed is to lack certain ethics and morals
I am embarrassed to be an American these days..
Trump is a modern day L Ron Hubbard.
Its seems over both of trumps terms he talks about how bad other presidents deals are. He then throws his monkey wrench in for show only to them make a deal the same as the other presidents. Then claims his is so much better.
Five days. Interesting… coincident with the market hours and the end of trading no doubt.
There are no negotiations except in Trump’s dementia-ridden mind. I can’t imagine the Iranians would be stupid enough to fall for the same trap a 3rd time.