Gasoline prices fell 1 percent, airline fares fell 4 percent but shelter rose 0.3 percent.
Better than Expected
- CPI: Bloomberg Consensus 0.3% v Actual 0.2%
- Core CPI Excluding Food and Energy: Bloomberg Consensus 0.3% v Actual 0.2%
- CPI Year-Over-Year: Bloomberg Consensus 2.9% v Actual 2.8%
- Core CPI Year-Over-Year: Bloomberg Consensus 3.2% v Actual 3.1%
CPI Month-Over-Month Details
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in February, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase.
- The shelter increase was partially offset by a 4.0-percent decrease in the index for airline fares and a 1.0-percent decline in the index for gasoline.
- Despite the decrease in the gasoline index, the energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month as the indexes for electricity and natural gas increased.
- The index for food also increased in February, rising 0.2 percent as the index for food away from home increased 0.4 percent. The food at home index was unchanged over the month.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent.
- Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares and new vehicles were among the few major indexes that decreased in February.
I don’t consider that a good mix with shelter up another 0.3 percent.
CPI Month-Over-Month Rent and OER
Rent has increased at least 0.3 percent all but one month since August of 2021. OER has gone up at least 0.3 percent every month since May of 2021.
Nobody pays OER. It is the rent homeowners would pay if they rented their own house instead of paying a mortgage or own the house free and clear.
However, over a third of the nation does rent and most of them pay well over a third of their income on rent. Many pay half their money on rent. After food and utilities, there is nothing left.
CPI Month-Over-Month Energy and Gasoline
Energy Month-Over-Month Details
- Energy: +0.2%
- Gasoline: -1.0%
- Electricity: +1.0%
- Natural Gas: 2.5%
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Year-Over-Year Details
- CPI: 2.8%
- OER: 4.4%
- Rent: 4.1%
- Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy): 3.1%
- Food and Beverage: 2.6%
- Medical Care Services: 3.0%
Year-Over-Year Energy
- Gasoline -3.1%
- Electricity: 2.5%
- Natural Gas: +6.0
- Energy: -.0.2
On the surface, this looks like an OK report. But falling gasoline and airfares represent economic weakening. Energy services are hot, and rent is stubbornly high.
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Moving in the right direction. Yay!!
Velocity is down, but money is up.
Bank credit up, loans/investments equal deposits
Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Large CDs down
Velocity is a function of interest rates
There is an entire generation coming of age that will not be able to afford a car.
Good, a lot of overwight folks so the exercise of walking instead of driving will do them some good.
If Trump wants to cut inflation he should propose a big reduction in spending on weapons.
He did. Proposed that the US and Russia cut defense spending in half. It’ll never happen.
He also needs to tackle the VA’s budget that has quadrupled from 70 billion in 2000 to 280 billion now. The VA disability program is obviously abused as most of the 5000 commercial pilots on VA disability should have been disqualified for their FAA physical exam.
Well Canada and EU are imposing their own tariffs now targeting red states. Oh the humanity!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/canada-eu-tariffs-retaliation-60d1890d
Notable in the EU and Canada announcements are the targets. Rather than an across-the-board tariff, Canada earlier this month imposed levies on peanut butter, orange juice, spirits, and other products whose production is centered in states that tend to vote for Republicans.
…
The EU’s tariffs were similarly targeted, including a levy on motorcycles, such as those made by Wisconsin’s Harley-Davidson HOG -5.01%. Trump won the historically Democratic-leaning state’s 10 electoral votes in November.
“Cry havoc and let loose the tariffs of trade war!”
It’s the weirdest thing .. the gasoline prices have not budged since Trump got elected here in Chicago. I wonder who is afraid of who ….?
That’s because of the HIGH gas taxes in IL. They automatically go up every January 1st and July 1st. We moved from IL to KS last year. Our gas dropped $.12 a gallon AND we get Super Premium gas cheaper than regular unleaded.
Don’t worry, they’ll be going up soon, thanks to this tariff business.
Security researchers aren’t buying Musk’s spin on the cyberattack that took down XA new report in Wired suggests X may have left some of its servers unsecured.So the US is supposed to trust a guy who can’t even manage his own social media site well with massive amounts of important government data, even before getting to bad intent and self-dealing? https://www.yahoo.com/tech/security-researchers-arent-buying-musks-spin-on-the-cyberattack-that-took-down-x-203402687.html
Inflation by any reasonable measure is above 3% and will only drop below this level should the economy fall into a recession that is not likely at this point (but could come close). One of these days, hopefully, someone in a position of authority will compute inflation using realistic measures.
Go with gasoline pump prices.
The next year’s CPI is going to be all about the consumption habits of the 10 to 20 million illegal immigrants that may or may not be deported. That is a huge spending block affected by headlines and government policies. Follow the money to understand economic behavior.
PS And despite what the “headline” law says about illegal immigrants being ineligible for federal government handouts, *Biden* classified all the illegal immigrants that came in under his watch (10+ million of them) as “qualified immigrants” rather than illegal immigrants. Qualified immigrants can receive government handouts, that amounts to as much as $182 billion a year in consumption handouts that the Trump administration is trying to rectify.
Yes and they also estimate these mexicans send billions back to families in Mexico so they get money from the states and earn money and it goes back to help the Mexican economy . Simply we subsidise their economy big time .
Not just mexicans. Lots of people from all over the world. At least 700,000 are from India alone.
This is why Trump should have a transaction tax on ALL money leaving the US. Make the transaction tax to Mexico VERY HIGH.
That’s called capital controls. Countries like China do that, we do not.
Even if we could, how would you propose we do it given it’s trivial to send cash anywhere online digitally (banking system, crypto etc) not to mention just carrying it on your personage (under 10K of course).
Trump can reclassify these to “illegals” with an EO. Problem solved.