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The CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Rises to New 40-Year High

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68 comments on The CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Rises to New 40-Year High

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CPI data from BLS, PCE data from BEA, chart by Mish

Today the BLS released the Consumer Price Index for April and it was a a scorcher. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is from the BEA and lags by a bit. 

The CPI is a measure of expenses directly paid by consumers whereas PCE also includes items pain on behalf of consumers, notably health-care including Medicare. 

CPI-Year-Over-Year 

CPI data from BLS, chart by Mish

Year-Over-Year Details 

  • The all items index increased 8.6 percent for the 12 months ending May, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. 
  • The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months.
  • The energy index rose 34.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005. T
  • The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.  

CPI Month-Over-Year 

CPI data from BLS, chart by Mish

Month-Over-Year Details

  •  The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April.
  • After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing. 
  • The food index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent.  

Bloomberg Economist Expectations

  • CPI M/M: 0.7% Expected vs 1.0% Reported
  • CPY Y/Y: 8.2% Expected vs New 40-Year High 8.6% Reported 
  • CPI Excluding Food and Energy M/M: 0.5% Expected vs 0.6% Reported
  • CPI Excluding Food and Energy M/M: 5.9% Expected vs 6.0% Reported

It was a clean miss economists undershooting inflation in every estimate.

Yellen Set the Tone

Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set the tone for a hot report with a series of comments.

Yellen Hoping

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1534852818015637505

Yellen on Jobs

No Recession?!

Yellen on Oil 

“Eventually, Yellen was bound to say something that actually made sense.”

For more amusing comments by Janet Yellen, please see Let’s Tune Into Janet Yellen Quotes of the Day and Responses to Them

Recession Outlook Update, Where Do Things Currently Stand?

Yellen sees no recession. I suggest we might be in one right now.

For discussion, please see Recession Outlook Update, Where Do Things Currently Stand?

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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68 Comments
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LM2022
LM2022
3 years ago
Blaming Biden for this mess makes about as much sense as blaming Trump for this mess. We’ve been in a depression since the dot com bubble burst but it’s been papered over with lots and lots of free money and by depressing interest rates. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. We won’t return to growth until the excesses of the last 20+ years are worked off.
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TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
Reply to  LM2022
Agree. Brandon is the worst president in the history of the USA but one cannot blame him for something that has been baked into the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP) since at least Bretton Woods if not all the way back to the creation of the federal reserve.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Many people still have enough cash flow that high prices don’t keep them at home.
========
Gas prices reach $5, but Americans are still hitting the road
The amount of gasoline being pumped into U.S. cars and trucks hit a three-year high this month.
10 Jun 2022
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
To me, the much more ominous news was the U of Micigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Consensus was for 58, which would have been quite bad, but the print was 50.2, which is a catastrophe. Inflation is a backward-looking number. Consumer Sentiment inherently looks forward. For the miss to be that large is a five-alarm fire, let alone the absolute number.
Biden’s statement today was utterly pathetic. For one thing, unemployment is higher than the numbers say it is. I’m not talking U-6 vs U-3, but rather the participation distortions emanating from the free money. This will be really bad, because just as those stimulus savers run out of stimulus savings, there’ll be lots of layoffs. Today’s actual UE rate is between 5% and 6%, and will go MUCH higher by Labor Day or maybe October.
The Fed will be tightening as all this happens. Hoo boy. Joe Biden’s complaining that the major media are only 98% for him right now? Just wait. Even CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, PBS, AP, Reuters, NYT, and WaPo won’t be able to shine this on.
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Fish1
Fish1
3 years ago
Anyone see Larry Summer’s interview on Bloomberg calling the Fed’s inflation predictions ridiculous and they should be called to task for these serials “misses”.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Fish1
I believe Summers has been saying similar for some time now.
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Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
3 years ago
President Biden’s comments (today) on economy/inflation (sourced from Briefing in Play)
Mr. Biden said:
1) The economy has unique strength that US can build on; notes low unemployment rate.
2) Families have more savings than they ever had and budget deficit is going down.
3) US can tackle inflation from a position of strength, but inflation is a real challenge for families.
4) Core inflation moderated in the last two months, but it needs to come down more quickly.
5) He wants Congress to pass legislation to ease shipping bottlenecks in the supply chain.
6) He wants Congress to crack down on foreign owned shipping companies that are increasing costs.
———————————————————————————————————–
QUIZ
How many of the six comments above are 1) lies 2) irrelevant and not germane to the subject 3) half truths and 4) full truths?
BONUS POINTS
How many of these exact comments did he make on Kimmel’s late night show 48 hours ago?
(It’s as if Biden thinks we are just a part of his LA audience.)
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TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
Reply to  Nuddernoitall
1) The economy has unique strength that US can build on; notes low unemployment rate.
Employment is a trailing indicator. With higher rates it becomes less easy to take on debt based production. Jobs will begin to decline very soon and by the elections nobody will be talking about low unemployment anymore. This midterm will be the biggest landslide loss for a political party in the history of the US. People will blame the bad economy on brandon because they have no clue how things work. But in truth it did not matter who is sitting in the hot seat. Stealing the elections was the dumbest move ever by the left. They should have just let trump win and trump would be flat on his face in the gutter right now instead of brandon. But as election fraud evidence becomes mainstream knowledge, the dems will have lost confidence for a generation. Yes, it’s going to be that bad. And the dems did it to themselves with their lying, cheating, fake shaming, mandating, vax pushing authoritarianism.
2) Families have more savings than they ever had and budget deficit is going down.
Really, where is the data for this “savings”. When people have savings they don’t need to go to their credit cards, especially when card rates have gone up. So this is just talk, and talk is 80% of the democrat platform.
3) US can tackle inflation from a position of strength, but inflation is a real challenge for families.
What strength? We are 30 trillion in debt and circling the bowl! The debt death cycle has already begun. Brandon is delusional or a massive liar, take your pick.
4) Core inflation moderated in the last two months, but it needs to come down more quickly.
The fed had exactly one tool for bringing down inflation: take the stock market down in order to reduce the wealth effect. Well, they took the market down for sure but CPIflation not only didn’t go down, it inched up. Thinking people will not say “well CPIflation is only up a little bit”! The reason is that the fed is throwing their kitchen sink at the issue and CPIflation is flipping the fed the bird. This is a FAR CRY from the CPIflation that we saw BEFORE the fed was trying to address the issue. The fed is now officially out of control.
5) He wants Congress to pass legislation to ease shipping bottlenecks in the supply chain.
This will not make a difference because the supply chain is not the cause of CPIflation. The real cause is that the fake paper currency has no intrinsic value and nobody will buy our debt anymore. That means the fed has to buy the debt which is to say monetize the debt. Since the debt is used to feed the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP), any effort to reduce the fed’s balance sheet will result in a liquidity crisis and a deflationary crash. Well, Ben “Make sure it doesn’t happen here” Bernanke knows that in a deflationary collapse the entire banking system will collapse. And if that happens the central bank will have to reverse course immediately and then go full power reverse. This is all absolutely predictable AND predicted in the past.
6) He wants Congress to crack down on foreign owned shipping companies that are increasing costs.
Yes, the usual playbook of “the greedy ———-” where “———–” can be replaced by any of the following:
-speculators
– farmers
– oil barrons
– shipping companies
– retailers
– etc.
It’s always the exogenous factor scam with these people. Don’t fall for it. There is only one escape hatch from what is coming: gold, silver and platinum and the miners thereof. One of my top picks is triple flag metals, a gold streamer. These guys print money. They get paid in gold ounces as a percentage of production. It is the BEST banking business model ever devised and is only possible to get the miners to agree to this kind of hard money because metals prices are so low right now. But the cure for low prices is low prices.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  TheCaptain
Before predicting “the biggest landslide loss for a political party in the history of the US,” you needed to look at the 1894 mid-terms. I agree that the Dems will be clobbered in November. But it won’t be anything like 1894, when one-third of Congress went from D to R following the Panic of 1893. History: It’s what’s for dinner.
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Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
3 years ago
Reply to  TheCaptain
Thank you for your thoughtful response. I never expected someone to comment in such detail to each point. Kudos. Enjoy the rest of your Friday and weekend.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Sold the rip earlier this week. Buying the dip today. Love the volatility. For those who missed the oil boom, this is a good chance to nibble away at your favourite oil stocks.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Not trading until after the Fed meeting. Fed may surprise everyone.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
That’s what makes a market. Different strategies. I was happy to pick up a couple of the stocks I sold earlier in the week after todays drop. Still many more to go. I am very patient, though lately you don’t have to wait too long.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
You should consider selling covered calls and selling naked puts. I did do one trade today, I closed the 10 apple calls I had sold for Jun 24 itm strikes. I will sell 10 calls again itm if we have a rally on tech stocks. Profit, rinse and repeat.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
I am a pretty simple investor. I merely buy and sell stocks and collect dividends. Why change what is already working so well? I would be afraid to screw it up. I’m up over 300% in less than two years.
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rojogrande
rojogrande
3 years ago
Mish, I’m trying to reconcile your comments that “the Fed will overshoot neutral by a lot” and “I doubt we see 50 bps in June.” With the hottest inflation numbers in 40 years, if the Fed doesn’t increase rates by at least 50 bps now, will they ever get to neutral, whatever that is? In quarter point increments it seems they’ll be raising for a long time to overshoot neutral by a lot.
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Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
3 years ago
In the 2020 US Presidential election, voters when faced with the option of a much appreciated and a much despised Donald Trump vs a Placebo (call him a straw man or Trojan Horse, if you will), and with the help of co-conspirator advocates in big tech, legacy media and financial one percenters, well …voters choose the Placebo. Of course Placebo Man (or Confused and Sickly and Corrupt basement guy, as he is also known) is not the sole reason for the rot that has weakened our institutions. Sadly, that internal decay and carnage has littered the US landscape for decades. But, looking back in our history, one would be hard pressed to witness an administration as damaging to the country as this one has been (and proudly, from their perspective, continues to be).
Of course it really is too late for the republic (that we once knew) to be saved.
There is good news, however, and that is, the typical citizen is finally understanding that our centralized government is corrupt, power-hungry, disinterested in anything other than institutional advancement and of course backed by their sycophants in media, academia, big business and big tech. Consider this the “Great Re-Set” in reverse. This is not exactly what Klaus Schwab had in mind. But Klaus and his globalist clan like a good fight, and will continue to spew the necessary drivel, lies and fear to get their version of the Great Re-Set on the right track once again.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
STAGFLATION. any talk of deflation was, and is silly. got bell bottoms ? time to watch “all in the family reruns”. wild inflation with consumers squeezed into a recession spending mode.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
“STAGFLATION. any talk of deflation was, and is silly.”
…
Deflation in what? Asset prices? Most assuredly. CPI? I expect to see some small year over year negatives … though overall level will remain highish.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
deflation is destruction of money / debt. but most folks speak of deflation as prices of consumables like food and energy………as going down.
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SleemoG
SleemoG
3 years ago
That $15 minimum wage is looking insufficient now. TPTB always have another trick up their sleeves to manage prole unrest, just inflate the gains away.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  SleemoG
Wages are sticky
Once we have another round of price deflation wage earners will be much better off than before
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Karlmarx
Karlmarx
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Still don’t buy the idea of deflation. Last time we had a similar inflation with similar causes we saw a short period of deflation in mid 1980s. But no sustained deflation. Asset price deflation for sure and deflation in specific sectors but not overall deflation.
Particularly with the current administration and fed in charge
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  Karlmarx
I agree with you. For the same reason I didn’t think inflation was “transitory” last year (when many were saying it was, including Mish) I don’t think we will see deflation. If wages are sticky, which they are, I think it is too big of a component of the current inflation problem to allow for deflation.
I have been giving huge–not modest–raises of 40% to 60% just to keep people from quitting. And they are still eventually getting poached with enormous job offers that I can’t even fathom matching. What is happening is many businesses would rather eat margin and keep the business going at any price than just not service contracts or demand. Something is better than nothing, and they know their pricing will eventually catch up.
But I don’t see menu prices going down, or management salaries being reduced. It will stay there, as current pricing holds or even escalates further, just to get the traditional wage component of everyone’s business model back to parity with their sales pricing.
I don’t think anyone can be certain how demand destruction is going to occur. Will businesses shed headcount and keep pricing stable, or will they keep employees and raise prices further? I believe everyone is now in the mode of increasing prices, whereas the last few decades it was the opposite mindset. Now it’s a lot easier to just poke prices up 10% every 6 months and pay your people, simply because everyone else is doing it.
I get twisted into knots trying to use my baseline economics education to explain what might happen.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
Here’s some deflation that most people miss!
———
No, you’re not imagining it — package sizes are shrinking
June 8, 2022
From toilet paper to yogurt and coffee to corn chips, manufacturers are quietly shrinking package sizes without lowering prices. It’s dubbed “shrinkflation,” and it’s accelerating worldwide.
In the U.S., a small box of Kleenex now has 60 tissues; a few months ago, it had 65. Chobani Flips yogurts have shrunk from 5.3 ounces to 4.5 ounces. In the U.K., Nestle slimmed down its Nescafe Azera Americano coffee tins from 100 grams to 90 grams. In India, a bar of Vim dish soap has shrunk from 155 grams to 135 grams.
Shrinkflation isn’t new. But it proliferates in times of high inflation as companies grapple with rising costs for ingredients, packaging, labor and transportation. Global consumer price inflation was up an estimated 7% in May, a pace that will likely continue through September, according to S&P Global.
….
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Jackula
Jackula
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
This is why it is so dangerous to get a wage price spiral upwards started
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
Inflation is a flow, not a stock. Everything is resetting higher, but once that’s completed what is going to drive ongoing inflation?
I expect unemployment to rise massively soon, which will stop pay rising. I expect energy prices to stabilize soon and then start to decline. Where will the flow of inflation then come from?
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FrankieCarbone
FrankieCarbone
3 years ago
Mish, do you mind fielding a question?
If not then here it is: If the markets were to REALLY implode, and I mean SPX ~ 2,000, or less, would you expect the deflationary vortex to be strong enough to not only obliterate this inflation that we are in, but invoke a net decrease in prices due to demand destruction and monetary destruction of the money supply?
I have always thought of BTC as a potential liquidity vortex that could be used to “mop up excess slosh in the system”. Any thoughts on that?
Thanks!
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  FrankieCarbone
I expect a price decrease across the board if energy cooperates
And since I expect that as well, then yes, another round of deflation.
This is based on a stated belief that the Fed will overshoot neutral by a lot
As for Bitcoin, $2,000 would not be surprising
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FrankieCarbone
FrankieCarbone
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Gratzi
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Dean_70
Dean_70
3 years ago
I said it before and I’ll say it again: THESE ARE JUST TYPICAL GOVERNMENT WORKERS. I have over 20 years of experience working with the public sector. There are some nice people in the public sector but 90%+ of them are unemployable outside of the public sector, regardless of title. This is true all the way from bottom to top.
Our leaders are simply just worthless government workers. Wrap your head around this and it all makes sense and falls into place.
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TheCaptain
TheCaptain
3 years ago
Reply to  Dean_70
“90%+ of them are unemployable outside of the public sector”
Oh you mean liberals! Why didn’t you just say so?
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Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
Wow – Dow now down another 725 points. Nearly 1,500 points in the past two days.
Interest rates blowing out while stocks tank hard is something not seen in several decades. No longer acting as “safe haven”.
Gold has re-couped all of this morning’s $20 drop and is now up $13.
Interesting…
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
Treasuries with still one (at least) Roar!
Did you notice in all the commotion this morning 5yr and 30yr yields inverted?
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Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Yes, 5-30 yield inversion says the bond market is forecasting recession – and a long, deep one.
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Scooot
Scooot
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
I’d be amazed if yields don’t test the 2019 highs now they’re so close. Bunds and Gilts busted up through them. Mind you I still don’t know why anyone would buy a 10 year gilt at 2.44, other than the BOE that is.
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Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooot
Possibly.
Trend will be for higher rates till something “breaks”. So far, everything orderly.
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
June Is Busting Out All Over
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
Link to the song:
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Rogers and Hammerstein had a different take on things in the song than I did when I posted this. I knew the context of the song on you tube but could not resist the jest when viewed through today’s market. Thanks for the link.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
That’s here the /s tag comes in handy at the end of a post. It represents sarcasm.
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killben
killben
3 years ago
Barclays says 75 bps is on the table for June 15th. Does this “Timid” Fed have the guts to do it or will it as usual put its tail between its legs and run. My wager would be tail between its legs.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  killben
I doubt we see 50 bps in June
Reserve call on July until minutes but first guess no there as well
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
You think they’ll stay where they are on fed funds? How about the balance sheet side?
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“The CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Rises to New 40-Year High”
(FED) jokers were wild. Ace of (inflation in) spades, won.
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
Meanwhile better trade deficit as a result of exporting oil, natural gas, food. They are feeding bugs to kids in the UK while exporting food…
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killben
killben
3 years ago
I was hoping for a higher print so that it will be a much needed slap for the Fed. But it turned out to be a punch to the solar plexus. Am I glad. The Fed deserves this and more for having stamped on the savers for a decade now. Arsonists!!
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Crenvy
Crenvy
3 years ago
Reply to  killben
Deserves what exactly? Do you imagine they will lose their jobs or suffer any sort of shame?
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killben
killben
3 years ago
Reply to  Crenvy
Unfortunately they get to keep their job and nothing happens to them. Not only that people down the line pay the price. Started by the old fool Greenspan and continued by others as if they were god. Just because they had the printing press and interest rates in their hands.
If only something was done to them, Bernanke would have been strung from the nearest lamp post instead of giving speeches as to how he saved the world. Imagine the irony of this idiot saving you.
When I said deserves I meant they cannot do as they please and act like kingkong – Not being able to cut rates and do QE in a jiffy. Squirming. That is the best one can expect can happen to them. Sad but that is how it is.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Rents rising to $2000/month on average across America. Great time to be a landlord with rental properties. Oh Eddie, where are you?
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Unless you have property in downtown Chicago. The only thing that is hot over here are the stolen goods from the Mag Mile retailers.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
i monitor the chicago (high rise) market for rentals. The prices are fairly stable, crunched numbers on dozens of properties but only came up with 4 to 6% returns which isn’t worth my time. I also have data feeds for every major metro and contrary to the commentary on this site, virtually all metro areas have strong demand for housing. It is the suburban areas that have had a huge increase in properties for sale which I won’t touch because I don’t want to deal with families or Karens, I prefer to rent to working professionals.
My theory is that high gas prices will drive people back to city centers, especially in places like chicago and new york. It will take time but the work from home will be ending for all but the most talented tech & business people.
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Funny, that’s exactly where my condo unit is (downtown Chicago). It is currently being rented out to a working professional of a tech company. I have been watching prices and condo demand and it is abysmal, but only in that limited Loop/Lakefront area. It never recovered from the riots and then the pandemic.
Even the rent we are getting is below-market, but that was the tradeoff from sitting empty a few more months. Pulled the trigger quickly to get occupancy.
If you want to buy it, let’s make a deal.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
Give me the specs…2 bed 2 bath? I’ll take it off your hands for $200k
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
LOL. Yes, 2 bed, 2 bath in a full amenity building with lake/river/park views.
You can steal it for $700k.
I’ll hold off on printing the paperwork…
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
In a few months, you’ll be begging for the 200k 😉
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
Just think of what 2 Weeks to Bend the Curve + WEF (TM) Build Back Better, can do for you.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
If/When energy prices remain high then food costs will only go up. Virtually all food needs to be transported from somewhere (farms) to grocery stores. The smart thing to do now is stock pile dry goods to help ease the pain. I went over to costco a few months ago and bought those giant bags of rice (40 lbs) and parceled them out to smaller bags and vacuum packed them with desiccant. Loaded up on beans and canned goods (tuna, chicken, etc).
If prices go down, it’s no big deal but if they go up or we end up in scarcity my belly will be full…
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
But did you buy toilet paper?
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Business Man
I have a bidet. Toilet paper is for savages.
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Business Man
Business Man
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
You actually made me laugh. I could use it today, as for some reason I’m feeling a bit cranky.
Thank you.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Don’t need no French toilet! 6 squares folded over twice, one swipe and I’m good to go. That’s what living healthily bequeaths.
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danaceve
danaceve
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45

Belly full? Most people in U.S. should practice fasting in these times. Save money & lose weight. Winning!

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shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Gasoline was only up 4.1%? Hard to believe. Looking at least twice that for June so far.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
The rate was for May so June may be 9% or higher. Still waiting on all that demand destruction.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
We have a couple months before the credit cards are maxed. Gonna be a Dickensian Christmas. If little Timmie wants presents, he’s gonna have to rock that crutch on Instagram.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Here in WA State, diesel has gone from $5.77 to $6.40 in the last three weeks.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Time for Flintstones cars!
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