Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?
Russia’s War Economy
Eurointelligence discusses Russia’s War Economy
It is worth looking at the autumn forecast for Russia by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, one of the best sources of economic information for central and eastern Europe. They upgraded their growth forecast for this year by 0.6pp to 3.8%. Russia is outgrowing all western economies, including the US. Growth is forecast to slow down to 2.5% next year because of the impact of a 19% interest rate. It is clear that Russia’s economic expansion is a classic case of a wartime Keynesian effect.
It is also interesting to contrast Russia’s economic development with that of Ukraine’s main supporters in Europe, which have entered into synchronised austerity, first in Germany, and now in France and the UK.
Russia’s fiscal stability is perhaps the biggest surprise. Defence spending is on trajectory towards 6% of GDP. And yet, the 2024 budget deficit is projected at 1.5%, falling to 1% in 2025.
Vasily Astrov, the Russia expert at WIIW, concludes that Putin will have money for the foreseeable future to continue financing the war against Ukraine. A rise in income and corporate tax has meant that Russia’s state finance will become less dependent on energy.
Financial sanctions are ultimately not as successful as their advocates once believed because money is not a natural global monopoly. International banks are certainly susceptible to US dollar sanctions. But not all banks in the world operate in dollar markets. The use of secondary sanctions has become a first-order instrument in the US’s diplomatic toolkit in this century. But it falls into the category of instruments which lose their value the more you use them. Even amongst US economists, we see a lot of complacency about this. It was friction combined with network effects that favoured the emergency of a single dominating currency – the pound sterling, the dollar later. The danger to the dollar is not the euro, or renminbi. It is that micro-channels are becoming viable as technology reduces the frictions.
Lessons of the Day
- The more you depend on sanctions, the less they work.
- That’s the real risk to the dollar.
Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail
On September 26, I commented To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail
In that post I refuted a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.
Also see my September 19, 2023: Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets
A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.
Finally, please see How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors
US sanctions backfire again. China is stronger as a result.
Russia’s GDP shows just how badly misguided and overused sanctions have worked.
Not hard to have 3% growth when you have 20% inflation
Inflation is an exaggerated force on the social landscape. It was far worse in early 20th century Germany; compare it to history.
Great article and info.Thank you Mish.
I would love to know, still to early to tell but will the Russian people be able to participate in this bounty? I sure hope so
They never have , perhaps ever……All goes to Putin and the oligarchs with not even crumbs for the people
Threats of sanctions are nothing but negotiation tactics. Sanctions are only a threat to the dollar if they detour the purchases of US debt. Threatening the largest buyer of our debt with war is a much bigger threat to the dollar.
Of course “The Danger to the Dollar Isn’t the Euro” because the euro and yen will collapse before the dollar, sending capital into dollar-based assets, which is already under way.
when you read monopoly directions you will see what the banker is supposed to do if they run out of money. no joke. go do some HW. it’s like grown men who never did read the directions in life. there is no need to pay taxes if one reads the tax code and regs before one gets too far along in adulthood.
Using the only source we have, GOVERNMENT CONCOCTED NUMBERS, means that the results are concocted.
All governments are run by liars and nothing they say should be believed. I. F. “Izzy” Stone, 1907-1989 ☮️✝️
Interest rate in Russia is 19%. No inflation there or anything…
What? Article in defense of Keynesianism?
If one can create economic growth by building tanks to be blown in Ukraine and by paying large piles of money to widows of dead soldiers, then why not to create BLS and skip tank-building and dead soldier step altogether?
For me this is yet another demonstration how poorly macro economic parameters describe actual reality.
In reality Russia can fight this war only by cutting down civilian spending and rapidly burning through big pile of financial reserves and stored Soviet era military hardware.
For example there was announcement in news back in 2022 that regional administrations ordered employees to work one day in month for free to help balance funds (and those employees include majority of Russian teachers and doctors unless I am badly mistaken). Can you imagine GW Bush ordering teacher unions to work one day per month for free in solidarity to fund war in Iraq? 🙂
As for Keynesianism and volunteers to Ukrainian frontlines, in July 2024 Moscow region administration announced:
Moscow residents will now receive 1.9 million rubles ($21,777) upon signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry. According to the city administration, this brings total payments for the first year of service to over 5.2 million rubles ($59,599).
1.9 million rubles for your information are almost exactly equal to two YEARS of Russian average salary. Want to guess how long Russian government will be able to fund war at those rates?
“Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?”
The most important thing “going on”, is that US GDP; at the very,very best and most generous; correlates +-50% with anything of any economic relevance. And there is precious little reason to believe the Russian one is any more relevant. It ALL measured in, literally, the equivalent of monopoly money. And that on top of what it purports to “measure” being far and away mostly just arbitrary drivel.
IOW: “What’s going on” with 3.8% vs whatever the supposed US equivalent made up so-called “measure”; is a combination of random fluctuation, “measurement” error and the fundamental underlying deficiency of the whole arbitrarily-made-up “GDP” idiocy. Nothing more.
3.8% growth and 7.4% inflation.
Study it out.
Speaking of new markets, Dollar Tree has opened in the closed 99 Cent only store in Burbank. A sports card store is going to be opening the the recently closed Rite Aid location. Don’t know yet whether the Walgreens location is closing.
AMERICA has been in a war economy since the WW2. Now Russia is emerging as a war economy? And its economy showing positive growth higher than our bankrupt one? Who is really surprised? Or this reveal is more about jealousy?
“Now Russia is emerging as a war economy?”
Russia hasn’t had much of an economy outside of 1)Commodities and 2)Military matters, since WW2. Both of those two do better with instability.
America used to have lots of industry which benefited from stability and “peace”, as counterweights to the MIC. But it doesn’t anymore.
That;s the big change, Russia is just the same as always. It’s America which has gone from a broad based economy, to one no longer any different from Russia’s.
Such that now: Neither Cold war superpowers, both with massive nuclear stockpiles; is even remotely competitive in ANY industry nor venture which does not benefit from war and instability. Hence: War and instability; simply for their own sakes, are all that either of them are pursuing.
Under one silly excuse or another. NONE of which have even the remotest correlation with actual, observable reality. Instead ALL serving no other purpose than as a last ditch Hail Mary aimed at keeping both/either country somewhat relevant, by forcing emphasis on the only field where either one of them are still any more relevant than Tuvalu.
OH: And Also: Now that Europe, increasingly including even Germany, is also collapsing into utter irrelevance on the back of moronic, Anglo style, debasement wealth transfer to the dumbest of the dumb and only them; Europe too, is hopping on the MIC bandwagon. Noone wants anything they’re offering anymore since it;s all overpriced junk. Hence, just like the Anglos before them: They’re desperately attempting to cling to some relevance by bombing others into paying attention to otherwise irrelevant little them
America isn’t in wars since Trump. Our proxies are. Putin isn’t threatening
the US and the US dollar. Our economy is similar to his without shedding
our soldiers blood. We invaded Iraq and Afghanistan after terrorists killed
3,000 in WTC.
news flash
Poland is doing better than Russia
https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/10/14/poland-overtakes-russia-in-value-of-exports-for-first-time/
Foreign governments own 9.2 trillion dollars out of the 35 trillion of Treasuries issued (26 percent), and 35 percent of marketable debt.
The problem is with short-term debt, an excessive volume of suddenly prone shiftable liquidity. A run on the dollar, a loss of confidence in the dollar, will stem from foreign accounts ending their rolling over of T-bills.
The BEA says we spent 1.1 trillion dollars on interest alone. Discretionary spending has fallen significantly. There’s no such thing as a shortage of safe assets. There’s a surfeit of safe assets. That’s why we have an O/N RRP facility to support short-term interest rates.
Without the O/N RRP we’d have negative interest rates and higher asset prices. The FED has a long way to go to ensure price stability.
see Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis (BOPGSTB)
Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments Basis (BOPGSTB) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
The US is the world’s largest debtor.
Are you surprised? Without the negative trade balance, it would be difficult to fund the government debt. The US is caught in trap of its own making.
The US $ is just the transaction’s currency today.
That was sort of obvious at the beginning, for anybody with enough perspective.
but the whole reason that the west started this exercise in the first place, was to do something about their own debts, which were slowly getting out of control.
The “danger” if you want to call it that, is default. At this point more and more people are reaching the conclusion that it is inevitable.
God save you.
All fiat moneys are under stress as governments plug the hole in their finances with book entries conjured up out of thin air. The move to digital currency will multiply the power of government to confiscate the wealth of innocent citizens. The run in gold to ridiculous new heights portends the collapse of fiat money world wide.
Now BRICS can trade without dollar or euro.
Global South has learned this painfully and now
Global North has to learn painfully.
“At this point of time, it [a BRICS currency] is a long term prospect. It is not under consideration. BRICS will be cautious and act gradually, move slowly. The time has not come yet,” Putin told a select group of senior editors from the BRICS member states at a media interaction at his official residence in Novo-Ogaryovo.
The goal is for the sanctions to not work.
Take Russian commodities of the market and we’d have big price inflation.
We have to have sanctions to look tough, but if they worked we’d have more political problems around the voting world.
Same fallacy about GdP that is happening here. Gdp is not a great measure of economic activity in the first place but when government is growing in leaps and bounds particularly fueled by debt or war gdo grows whole economy declines
Read Bastiat
bastiat is the best. i’m surprised mish hasn’t figured out the scam of GDP.
GDP isn’t a scam but it is incomplete. The production from my garden shows up only as the purchases of seeds, canning lids and freezer bags.
Krugman would be horrified and demand I get back in the work force to generate GDP and use my income to buy the most highly processed food available as every step of processing increases GDP.
Spending on health care caused by the highly processed food also counts as GDP. So yeah, I’m really screwing up the system.
The broken mirror guy?
Nonsense. Mish posted about this many times, but maybe not as recently as you would like. It might have been on his old web page.
I think it would behoove to read and not make absurd comments.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-vs-frederic-bastiat-who-is-right-about-tariffs/
I have written about the broken window fallacy many times.
GDP is not a “scam” but we can disagree with with what it means. The price of oil rose and Russia had increased exports, not decreased as a result of stupid sanctions.
A Digital Dollar would be irresistible as a tool of US foreign policy. Which would cause it to be shunned by friend and foes alike.
if putin can peg the ruble to gold via oil, so can usa.
Except that there is no gold peg in Russia. See here (prices are quoted in rubles per gram):
https://www.moex.com/en/issue/GLDRUB_TOM/CETS
it is pegged to oil priced in rubles
It’s not pegged to anything. There is no constant oil-to-gold ratio nor ruble-to-gold ratio for that matter. Gold is traded like a regular commodity and so is crude oil. Meanwhile ruble supply is inflated at double-digit rates owing to expansion of credit.
i’ll trust forbes and universities and asia times over some random ignorant on mish’s little blog. i have plenty of russian pals too. i did business there in the 1990s. a great culture when it comes to the arts. not so much freedom or democracy or things that matter to important things in life, imho.
bye bye. good luck in life with your propaganda.
Wow that was quick! I believe you just misread what Russia’s “budget rule” means. The authorities, via the Central Bank, do intervene in the F/X market when crude prices break above or below a certain range – but the objective is to cushion the volatility of budget revenues, not to peg the ruble, and it only concerns oil. Gold is completely out of the picture.
here is the answer old sport. you have good blog posts. your commenters seem sort of dense and joined a cult of nit wittery.
https://www.dal.ca/news/2024/03/22/putin-gold-sanctions.html#:~:text=In%20early%202022%2C%20Russia%20pegged,substitute%20at%20a%20fixed%20rate.
The globalists : takedown this wall/ build a bridge to the world.15M/20M illegal immigrants invaded the US. Coventry the UK, Jaguar town, absorbed 200K in 2024. They flooded schools and emergency room. Coventry is an Islamic state. It’s a starter. They ferment the west in room temp. Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad are bubbling in Europe and the US.
How would Coventry react to Lady Godiva today?
We see a similar pattern in Germany during WW II. The initial boom of 1939-1942 saw GDP growth rates even higher than Russia’s and for the same reasons. German companies were raking it in with the high orders and paid more taxes accordingly. Of course most of that increase in GDP was literally going up in smoke but statistically it still counts as growth.
After 1942 Germany like Russia now was going up against a sever labor shortage because of causalities and mobilization. Germany partially solved it by using slave labor and “guest” workers. Russia is testing using North Korean soldiers to free up Russians for labor but that brings up other problems. The labor shortage means higher costs to build the same thing as before and leads to an upward spiral of wages..and inflation.
Equally Germany had at this time less access to raw materials but Russia does not have this problem however even though Russia is still selling energy into world markets they are making less and less profit from those sales.
1943 marked the time when German inflation started to take off and accelerate as the country experienced resource constraints, bottlenecks and increasing inefficiencies. An important point is that access to technology is the major resource in modern warfare and there Russia is experiencing an extreme squeeze that resembles Germany’s squeeze on things like oil and metals.
The collapse of Germany’s economy after 1943 came from factors Russia will not experience. There is no widespread bombing of industry nor risk of territorial invasion that Germany experienced so the result be not be the same. It will more like be a slow and constant erosion of economic power with accelerating inflation.
Moscow isn’t deflating like Leipzig or Jasa. Russia will benefit if Bibi bombs Iranian assets along with Biden, after the Nov election. If Iran deflates Israel Putin wouldn’t care. It might lead to a ME settlement.
Russia isn’t benefiting from anything going on in the world now.
Every single instability anywhere, benefits those whose whose sole source of revenue and influence is weapons and commodities.
Russia is in Africa and the ME, specifically to destabilize those places, in order to ensure China; and others; has to pay higher prices for commodities from there.
If Israel bombs Iranian oil terminals; Russia benefits from higher oil prices, as well as from being seen an oasis of stability wrt oil deliveries. So: They’ll keep Iran armed enough to keep Israel busy destabilizing the region.
Heck; nothing would play into Russia’s hands more than the US getting sufficiently involved in Iran-pounding via Saudi and Emirati bases; to “warrant” Iranian tit for tat’ing those guys’ oil terminals as a response. A bit of that; and pretty soon Russia is the last remaining safe and stable place to go for any reasonably guaranteed-to-remain-available-and-stable large scale oil deliveries
Excellent analysis.
Why then do you think Putin declined to sign a mutual defense agreement with Iran last week? Is he trying to extract more concessions or some other geopolitical strategy?
Masoud Pezeshkian looked disturbed by Putin’s body language but it could all be short term dickering & posturing before a final announcement at BRICS.
Look at the price of oil. Nobody expects Israel to hit Iran’s oil infrastructure. If they hit it’s nuclear facilities no one would care much either.
Don’t put it past Russia to keep Iran sufficiently armed that they’ll eventually irritate Israel sufficiently to make things an even bigger mess.
Russian radar and SAMs succeeding in detecting and downing a latest gen US/Israeli bomber, would be a massive marketing win for Russia as well. And a disaster for the US.
The Israelis may be sufficiently battle-hardened and realistic to take such a risk, as there’s no way Iran will be able to down all of them.
But America is really dependent on keeping the myth of their complete armaments overmatch alive, in order for whatever is left of their ability to jawbone from afar to remain intact.
You are WAY off on WWII German production, labor shortages etc.
Germany made WAY more tanks, planes, guns etc in the final years of the war than they did in 39-41 (the years they were over running Europe). The reason is that Hitler didn’t switch to wartime economy until 43 because he still believed victory in Russia was just around the corner. The switch to the wartime economy is what caused consumer goods shortages.
You can see tank production here. A simple google search will show plane production etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_armored_fighting_vehicle_production_during_World_War_II
ALL the WWII countries massively stepped up production the longer the war went. It’s one of the reasons it’s easy to dispel the myth that all the bombings by the Allies on German factories made any difference. It didn’t as the charts show that even in the final 5 months of 1945 before they surrendered and were effectively surrounded in just Germany they still managed to make close the the same amount of tanks they made in the years 39-41 COMBINED. If they had produced at 1944 level in 1941, they might have actually forced a Russian surrender.
They built more planes and other military equipment but consumer consumption collapsed because all production was going to the war so the GDP did fall in 1944 and 1945. The war material production did peak in 1944 but total GDP also includes consumer goods production. They produced lots of guns but no butter so the GDP fell.
Wikipedia is not a very good source.
You can get those same numbers from any military reference book if you don’t like Wikipedia. Wiki links are just easier to find and link to.
You aren’t wrong about domestic production collapsing. That’s what war time economies do, collapse domestic production in order to produce military goods. It happened here too, just not to the same degree since we weren’t losing the war (my parents and grandparents told me plenty of stories about war time rationing of food and goods). There is a reason all the countries involved in the war (allied and axis) were putting women to work at never before numbers.
This was alleged by Mr Zelensky but I have not seen definite confirmation, nor does it seem likely. How many North Korean soldiers are competent in Russian language or vice-versa? To have them fighting at the front would be a logistical nightmare .
The danger to the dollar is Putin ?
When our national interest factories will be ready demand for highly skilled workers will be high. Tariffs (sanctions) and higher tax collection will fill the gov coffer…We are doing exactly what Putin is doing. We declared a war against the globalists who in a desperate effort are trying sell their products for market dominance and profit, in warlike against our flyover workers, leaving behind rusty skeletons and devastated people, outsmarting us. Trump imposed “sanctions” on them from day one.
What’s going on in Russia is better described as wealth transfer. Russia has a Rust Belt of its own and that’s where beneficiaries of war spending are mostly to be found. Much less so for Moscow and St. Petersburg as we face restricted travel opportunities and higher prices for high-end imported goods. This redistribution is not likely to persist for long, yet someone must be enjoying their fifteen minutes of fame as long as it lasts.
Virtually any such redistribution (re-redistribution is a more economically correct description) can go on virtually indefinitely, since it is so clearly structurally economically efficient: In a world as f’d up as the current one: The provinces based Russian arms industry is globally competitive. Hence adding (at least apparent) value. Which is something no central-bank-welfare-recipient “industry”; including the Moscow/St.Petersburg-based Russian one; will never do; no matter what.
Perhaps. Still, when it comes to wealth transfer, obtaining wealth is one thing and keeping wealth is a different matter. The current boom has high time preference writ large as army bonuses tend to be spent quickly. Makes me think it will revert to the former state of things eventually.
This is one of the more interesting & better informed exchanges at Mishtalk in a while. Thanks for leaving US elections out of it.
Only a small share of the spend is going into direct, current “army bonuses.” Most is going into capital; human and otherwise; enabling greater arms production.
In the world we’re currently stuck in, that increased production is valuable. Not just in Ukraine, even if that’s the immediate need driving it. But over time also everywhere else some warlord or “terrorist” wants more-better kit. As well as where some “internationally recognized” (mostly also newspeak for nothing more than current top-dog terrorists..) government needs some, to stay ahead of those terrorists and warlords….
Weapons are something Russia is good at. They may not be as cutting edge as America or Israel (in some areas they seem to be..), but they are darned good, can produce lots of volume, and have “smartly” positioned themselves as the outlet for all those who either are barred from, or can’t afford top end US and Israeli kit. So increased arms sales is a major economic shot in the arm for Russia.
And, as a side effect, all those added arms in circulation, is also likely to make most places with lots of commodities left, less stable. Hence less reliable sources for commodities. Again benefiting Russia, which has lots of commodities, is so big it borders nearly “everyone” hence can offer near everyone direct delivery without dependence on unstable transport corridors, and is one of the very few which has a nukepile sufficiently big to be effectively immune from serious intervention by anyone. America, and in not too long China, can come up with excuses for why they need to bomb nearly everyone else, if it suits them. But not Russia.
Of all the countries on the planet, Russia is the one which most onesidedly benefits from the current rise in militarization and instability. The “worse” things get, the more weapons demand will increase. And, at least up to a point, the more expensive and unreliable commodities deliveries, which are often sourced from less-than-stable places, will tend to get as well.
It’s a nasty setup, likely entirely immune to the death of “evil” Putin or anything of the sort. If America was still a reliably widely accepted “good guy”, such that almost all the rest of the world would provide a united front against the increased militarization, that would be one thing. But America is now increasingly in the same position as Russia: Arms and military “support”, “umbrellas”,”advisors” and “alliances” is almost the only area left where it has any competitive advantage. So now, the two mega-nuke-stockpile nations, are engaged in a good-cop-bad-cop (with who’s-who being anybody’s arbitrary guess…) roleplay racket, ultimately just aimed at keeping the world dependent on continued deliveries of their bombs and Wagner/Blackwater outfits. Since that’s really all they can competitively offer anymore.
And Trump will then come and slap 100% tariffs on countries not using “USD” as a reserve currency (whatever that means) which will ironically harm the dollar on the long run
Apart from the problem of trusting the numbers of authoritarian regimes, war time economies that are not getting bombed out of existence always tend to grow because of how GDP is measured. But it’s a highly inefficient and socially costly growth to society.
It will be interesting to see if Trump’s 100% tarifs on countries that snub the dollar proposal further speeds the world away from it..
Russia is run by a dictator(s), just like China, Turkey, Venezuela, Nord Korea, India (almost), Iran, Philippines, and half the -stans. No numbers out of such places are to be trusted and no one really cares if a guy who everyone hated in elementary school is boss. He’ll be dead soon enough. Not that American numbers can be trusted either, but still …
I’m not a fan of Trump. But one joy of him getting elected is the despair among people like you.
My sources say Russian interest rates are 19%. Inflation is 30% most noticeably in food staples carrots, beets, onions, cabbage, eggs, milk. All economic “growth” is in useless production of weapons. The Russian economy is contracting. The Russian social welfare fund is down to $40 billion and expected to be depleted in one year when social remits must be curtailed. Russia has a dire shortage of males due to emigration and battle casualties. The Russian birth rate, never high in a nation of impoverished slaves, has plunged. Higher taxes were announced. The ruble value is collapsing. Russia is reduced to barter of potatoes and wheat for imports. Sanctions are a poor substitute for sending six divisions to Ukraine, but sanctions work. Europe does not have six divisions, nor ammunition to supply them.
Sounds just like us “ Useless production of weapons”
Mish’s blog has some Russian readership to check your claims. There is no 30% inflation, in fact money supply growth has decelerated recently from 25% to some 18% YoY so real interest rates are barely positive. A real estate boom fueled by subsidized mortgages has been going on for several years – hardly pointing to an economic contraction either. On the other hand, the stock market remains depressed since 2022, with blue-chip valuations below 4x earnings.
My sources are scholars. Your sources are Russian government propaganda. Russia is a slave culture of ~20 million prosperous citizens of Moscow and St. Petersburg supported by destitute captives in the subject slave states. Outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg the slaves spent 50% of their income on food. Then came 30% per year food inflation.
You are somewhat behind the clock! At first it was said only Moscow is an exception before St. Petersburg was added. The realm of “prosperity” has since been expanded to include a dozen of “millionnik” cities along with places such as Sochi, Kaliningrad, and Vladivostok. All have been experiencing construction booms recently.
Re “slave nation”, one can only blame the government to a certain extent for their mishaps. Eventually you either act to improve your lot, or you earn the Darwin Award in economics.
As for 30% inflation, this is the sort of nonsense the local rumor mill is equally good at. Talks of “real inflation” as high as 50% are ubiquitous. The problem is, 30% p.a. would compound to an almost threefold increase in prices over four years, forcing the poor guys to plant their own Victory Gardens. Instead the suburbs are teeming with $200k brick houses.
If there is a shortage of males, it’s in the Ukraine, not Russia which has 6-7x the population. Even if somehow there were a million dead/wounded Russian males that’s nothing in a country of 180 million people.
Well, sort of. Remember that Russia skews female (from before the current war) and very old. Only about 1/3 of Russia’s population is between 18 and 45, and there are more females than males (even more now, but we’re talking 2021 numbers). With a population of about 146 million, that leaves us with something like 20 million available males if we throw out some for being physically or mentally unfit for the military.
Those are also the people you need to work in factories, drive trucks, etc. So your pool keeps getting smaller, though we could debate exactly how much. Let’s say you can use 1/2 of that 20 million without completely crippling the civilian economy. So now we have 10 million.
Remember too that you need (even in Russia) at least 4 or 5 people working logistics/repair/etc to support one combat soldier. We’re down to a couple million available for combat now, and Russia might have already lost half of them.
Ukraine is of course in terrible shape too, but they are mostly defending and at least somewhat seem to care about preserving the lives of their troops. So it will be interesting to see who runs out of young men to snuff out first, I guess.
Sanctions do not work because China is the factory of the world with complete supply chain for almost every necessity. Lately, producing manufacturing equipment, as well.
Total sanctions on Russia has exposed the last remaining asset, finance and insurance. It is as if the magician showed how the trick works.
The latest asset, the propaganda industrial complex is crumbling fast.
But China was not always the factory to the world, and so a country with the right economic polcy can build or restore a manufacturing base.
The really tragic part is that sanctions never get lifted. Why does the US still sanction Cuba, a country whose people are in desperate economic misery? Cuba is no threat to anyone except Neocon politicians who have been destroying Cuba with sanctions for over sixty years. Really bad optics for US if anyone cares to look.
Follow the money.
When Cuba became communist, lots of assets (land) were seized from American owners. Those Americans demand their land back despite the fact it’s been 65 years and no one or next to no one is still alive who owned anything in Cuba prior to the revolution. But as long as the descendants of those who lost their land clamor for re compensation, the embargo will continue.
They will just join BRICS and ignore the US / West
They trade just fine with everyone else in the West except the US.
As a Canadian I’ve vacationed there and so have some of my friends. Lots of Europeans do too. European and Canadian companies have built many hotels etc.
There is no need for them to join the BRICS and ignore the rest of the West.
The highest salaries in communist countries are in the armed forces.
Extrange communist statement. Cuba is poor because american big enterprises can’t manage the economy.
I thought that communists wanted forbide capitalist bussines.
It”s obvious that cubans lived far better with capitalist american bussines, even with old spanish rule.
Cuba can trade with everyone else and they do. Their problems are due to their communist government.
I think it has to do with the JFK assassination. Once communism falls in Cuba, I wonder if the state files will be opened up. The US itself might not want them opened.
The physical and circumstantial evidence pointed at Oswald. For Oswald, it was a crime of opportunity.
Sanctions? Ukraine imposed the most effective sanction by blowing up NordStream.
Anything less is eye candy for pusillanimous voters that will never suffer invasion, rape, pillage, and ethnic cleansing.
Ukraine blew up Nordstrom? You still beating that horse to death are you ?
Who did?
Kyrgyzstan for the win! Funny how they suddenly decided to Buy European. Although those EU exports are not so large to the landlocked central Asian nation, it’s clear something has changed.
It’s tempting to associate the sudden Kyrgyz passion for European goods with sanctions against Russia given the timing, but note that Kyrgyzstan does NOT border Russia! It only borders China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This isn’t Europeans buying Russian goods snuck into Kyrgyzstan, it’s the Kyrgyz suddenly buying from Europe… why?
The China border is largely along the CCP province of Xinjiang, whose Uighur minority is used as slave labor. The Tajik border leads into Afghanistan, with its own intrigues following the U.S. departure in summer 2021.
And what does this have to do with the article?
You are getting into the dirty little game Biden and the deep state have been playing. They think they can ignore debt to GDP ratio and grow their way out of everything. The deep state thinks Japan is in debt with a 500% debt to GDP ratio and so can we spend like they did. What they do not mention is the stock market in Japan is lower today than it was in 1989. Because growth means higher inflation and higher interest rates at some point growth has to be slowed down or default will occur. The influx of illegals does not change that.
The thing Democrats do not get with this sanction nonsense and the lawfare campaign against Trump is the chilling effect it has on people with assets. I talked to two ex-pats at a South American airport and we all agreed the only reason to stay in the USA was for purposes of income. In South America, you can go to a restaurant and grab an empanada with meat in it and a Coke for less than $2. One of the first things I will be looking at with retirement is debt:GDP ratio because chances are the countries with the highest ratios are the ones most likely to seize your assets.
Our government is so arrogant that they do not believe that there really is competition for assets.
You think the place with the $2 lunch is less likely to seize your assets? Because I can think of a lot of examples where that would not work out.
I was telling some poster the other day to be careful when he retires overseas because he will have to hire bodyguards and be concerned 24/7 for his safety as a rich foreigner (or perceived to be rich). This is especially true in Latin America and things have gotten much worse in the last several years.
I’m NOT worried about my real estate in Warsaw Safe, secure location and the people would never go back to government confiscation of assets
Hiring bodyguards? The only places I was concerned about crime all that much were Venezuela and Brazil. I have also been in some very nice rural areas where people routinely left their doors unlocked.
I think USA propaganda is such that they massively understand financial thievery from lawsuits and government in the USA and massively overstate criminal behavior abroad.
Lies, damned lies and government “sadistics.”
Maybe I missed it… we should be doing fiscal stimulus by spending as much as we can on the military?
Mush, seriously, this sounds like a poster case for the broken windows fallacy.
3.8% of what exactly??