Let’s discuss the latest national polls and a preposterous 8-point lead for Democrats in one Michigan poll.
The above image is courtesy of the Silver Bulletin with Pollster Bias also from the Silver Bulletin, when published.
Last update: 11:30 a.m., Saturday, October 19. Happy Saturday. Not the highest-quality set of polling entering our database. Kamala Harris got some good numbers from The Bluefinch Group in the Blue Wall states, but they’ve had a strong D-leaning house effect throughout the cycle. The race remains very close to 50/50.
Comment From Bullfinch
If you think a demographic is going to be more represented come election day, weight ’em up. If you think a demographic is going to sit this one out, weight them down.
NOTE ON WEIGHTING: As you’ll see in the Toplines, we share why we ask things a certain way, and also why we prefer not to weight data. If you do want to weight the data, we recommend weighting on the demographics, not on ballot questions.
You might want to Download Bullfinch Toplines to see their interesting comments,
I asked Silver for links on pollster bias in his tables, but I doubt he pays any attention to any requests or comments.
Democrats up 8 in the Bullfinch poll seems preposterous.
Silver subtracts bias, factors in weight, and applies that to the overall assessment. In short, Silver factors in outliers. In general, I would agree but at what point does one say this poll is so obviously biased I will throw it away?
For Silver there is not cutoff. Of course, Harris fans would have wanted to toss away the recent Quinnipiac poll that had Trump up 3.5 percentage points.
Regardless, as I scan the above Michigan table it is not at all clear who, if anyone is leading or by how much.
National Polls
Democrats will look at that poll showing Republicans in the lead and scoff that it’s Fox News.
Republicans tend to see New York Times/Siena polls as biased for Harris.
Net Pollster Bias
The fact is that pollsters for both Fox News and the NYT are among the best pollsters with the least ongoing bias.
As I look at the national polls, Harris is flirting 2.0+-. That is just below her win point.
Trump insults Detroit
The Associated Press reports Trump Insults Detroit While Campaigning in the City
“The whole country will be like — you want to know the truth? It’ll be like Detroit,” the Republican presidential nominee said. “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president.”
Trump’s remarks came as he addressed the Detroit Economic Club in a speech appealing to the auto industry, a key segment of the population in battleground Michigan’s largest city.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has been a major surrogate for the Democratic presidential ticket, also criticized Trump, saying on X, “And you better believe Detroiters won’t forget this in November.”
This is just plain stupid. It’s also just plain Trump.
Time Magazine reports In Detroit, Donald Trump Gets the Closest He’s Ever Gotten To An Apology
Donald Trump does not apologize. Ever. It’s actually a point of great pride for him.
But his return to Michigan on Friday showed that, at least briefly, he understood he had stepped in it last week in a city that could dictate the fate of this state’s 15 electoral votes.
On stage Friday evening, with “Make Detroit Great Again” on the screen, Trump said the city’s problems were failures made on Democrats’ watch. “Your beautiful place, your beautiful city” was “decimated as if by a foreign army.” It was a heaping dose of victimhood with a promise of redemption
“I will put Detroit first. I will put Michigan first. I will put America first,” he said.
The crowd’s acceptance of Trump’s Detroit-on-the-rise spin was consistent with their collective amnesia or indifference to his logical inconsistencies throughout the evening. Breaths after promising to kill any electric-vehicle mandates, he praised Tesla chief Elon Musk. His contradictions on tariffs were as manifest as ever.
Before the boss spoke, Trump policy adviser Stephen Miller drew roars when he promised a plan to make Detroit the “economic center of the world,” as if the opposite hadn’t been suggested just days earlier. It was a signal that Trump’s feathering was not a deviation from the script but a change to it. In his remarks, Trump peppered rare notes of optimism even as his dark rhetoric on other topics showed no sign of softening.
Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real
Yesterday, I commented Trump’s Polling Momentum Is Real With Under Three Weeks to Go
Just because Trump has momentum does not mean he keeps it. Expect anything.
Could Trump’s Detroit gaffe kill any momentum Trump has in Michigan? Yes, why not? Then again, it might not.
Regardless, this was a fumble and it cannot possibly do Trump any good.
Head-Scratching Dinner Skit
If you are looking for unforced errors by Harris, I can help.
Please consider Kamala Harris taps ex-‘SNL’ star for head-scratching Al Smith Dinner skit that left audience puzzled, silent
After becoming the first presidential candidate in 40 years to miss the charity event put on by the Archdiocese of New York, the Democratic nominee tried to make up for her absence by sending in a pre-recorded “comedy” skit with former “Saturday Night Live” actress Molly Shannon.
In the video, Shannon, 60, resurrected her schoolgirl alter ego Mary Katherine Gallagher to “interrupt” Harris’ formal dinner remarks and warn her not to make fun of Catholics.
The video also lampooned the Church, with Shannon saying that the Al Smith Dinner was not as important as the Last Supper and warning that all the remarks would be fact-checked by Jesus.
In football terms, a soon as someone gets over the 50 yard line, they fumble or punt.
Nate Silver and most if not every aggregator of polls won’t include a poll that does not reveal methodology.
The biased pollsters are internal polls and others like Rasmussen. But I posted those biases.
All the good aggregators take bias into consideration.
So bias does not do all that much good, if any.
Curiously, two of the least biased and most highly rated are NYT and Fox.
So don’t judge a pollster by who is paying the bill.
Look into it. The RCP simple math poll average has more frequently been closer than Silver’s complex math and deep poll analysis.
Notice how in the 16 comparisons, the RCP simple elementary math average beat Silver’s complex formulas and analysis 14 times.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-kamala-harris-leading-donald-trump-in-the-presidential-race/
I can give more examples of the RCP average beating Silver far more often than not.
In 2022 RCP tried to factor in bias of polls and was less accurate than their simple average.
Perhaps polls are very scattered. Sure a poll may average +1R, but at times it will lean +D. Also when you start accounting for poll bias, you inherently let your own bias in. How much to downgrade a poll or lower the weight?
The whole Detroit thing is just a reflection of American’s love of BS. Let me tell you something- I grew up partly on the east coast. A significant portion of that 80s childhood – too much of it – was in the iron bound section of Newark NJ. Newark was a sh!thole then and likely continues to be one now despite being slightly more gentrified. If Trump had disparaged Newark I would be the first one in line with him. From what I see of Detroit, Baltimore etc they are as bad if not much worse. A sh!thole is a sh!thole – why be proud to live there? Either help fix it or move the hell out – that’s what I did and I’ll be happy to never return to that godforsaken place.
The cities in the US are doomed and that is why we have suburbs. The cities elsewhere are just fine, because they have been spared Marxist rulers.
All the dems I know in my deep blue state have tds, and imo all will vote. What about the us’ largest party, the indies? I expect low turnout among them bc neither candidate looks acceptable. How will the voting indies decide? Imo perceived economics. And my guess is that recent high inflation has hurt the working class.
indies have had a chance to listen to Harris, imo the more they hear the less they like, explaining the poll shifts to trump. It’s too late for her to hide in the basement, swings look to have swung too far for recovery.
and… Schumer was wrong that dems could forget about the working class and pick up reps in the burbs, there aren’t enough rep warmongers like Cheney to make up for the vast number of workers.
Rationalize all you want, diaper man’s goin’ down.
I browse the headlines on Citizen Free Press and the polling headlines are all over the place. I don’t bother trying to figure out who is leading, as the wind keeps changing direction from day to day and even hour to hour, depending on the release of the latest poll.
Yes and no. There’s been a clear trend going in one direction ever since Cackles took over the party nomination towards Trump. Sure, daily observation of the polls will drive you nuts, like the stock market, but the average over the last two months is clear.
Associated Propaganda reports that…
I don’t bother listening to mainstream propaganda media. In January 2020, KTLA News said that a new study stated that vitamin D supplements were “worthless.” A week or so ago, KTLA news asked “are you getting enough vitamin D?” Wait, what? Glad i ignored their 2020 report.
Both Candidates are indeed Rowing different ROW BOATS, in Murky Waters, infested with bullshit and lies. PERFECTO! NOW, which one can put another, second oar, into the muck and emerge “victorious” – – and victory only applies to THEM, not us, because neither has the American People in mind and in fact — be very careful:
WE ARE IN THOSE MURKY WATERS and they are about to introduce Sulfuric Acid.
YES, that sensation effect is real for ALL OF US, even upper Middle Class pretenders . . and then we ALL dissolve and are cleanly out of the way so that the FEEDING TROUGH, called our National Debt, can be expanded.
These are the sad moments of a Nation in Demise.
I think people are putting too much weight on polls. One should look at the past elections since 2018. Trump and Trump backed candidates have had their lunch money taken from them in the last 5 years. Look at a snapshot of the economy right before an election. GDP growth, job growth and low unemployment rate is what you want. Inflation has been tamed. Michael Moore predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and no red wave in 2022. He predicts women will crucify Trump in 2024. I agree. I don’t see this being close.
Trump needs no help from anyone in his seeking a loss: IMAGINE HIM WITH A GIANT DIRTY FOOT IN HIS MOUTH. (I DO NOT VOTE, I am in the gallery wondering why people think that voting matters or CHOICES matter – – these people are in it for the FUN, FREE AIR FORCE 1 USE, FREE FOOD, HOUSING and they get to throw parties, smoke Cigars with the “OTHER SIDE” as Partners in this Crime called “Governance.” TRUMP gets to park his Normal Boeing Plane and put it in Mothballs, burning NONE OF HIS PURCHASED JET FUEL. PERFECT.
Kamala gets to use AF 1 to give Blowjobs to McConnell (Although his is not flaccid) and the Other Willy Brown Substitutes.
Exactly. How many of those polled are women of fertility?
Found it at Vox an interesting 18 minute video from Jan 2024:
How Michigan explains American politicsHow Republicans won Michigan, how they lost it, and what it all tells us.
I’m pretty sure that anyone who is actually seriously offended by the notion that someone would seriously say that there is something seriously, systemically wrong with Detroit would seriously, never, ever vote for Trump anyway.
Taking the impact of such critical statements seriously is about the most unserious view of politics that I can imagine. However, it is likely that some will be seriously offended by the notion that there is something unforgivably wrong with actually saying out loud that many of the major cities in America have failed in every way that should matter to citizens. But they were already going to vote for Trump anyway.
In other words, a nothing burger controversy best left to others to write about.
The nothingburgers are not as tasty as they used to be.
Silver is a staunch liberal who shutdown his site before Trump won in 2016. I regard him with extreme prejudice with anything involving politics. Regardless, who even responds to pollsters? Most people I know would hang up immediately including me. Let’s see the data on hang ups, who is funding the poll and which polls are thrown out when the data is way off.
There is way too much energy wasted on poll evaluation that may or may not be right and since we don’t whose evaluation is right or who wins until the final vote, the final vote is the only one that matters.
Europe has much tighter controls regarding mailed ballots due to fraud concerns. The Democratic Party position that showing an ID to vote is somehow bigoted is absurd. Ballot fraud is easy in the United States and I fully expect it will carry Harris into the presidency. The media will pretend there was no fraud and the government will arrest dissidents. Welcome to totalitarian government of the United States. We will have a pretend democracy just like California has today. People don’t understand who is the real threat to democracy.
Silver
subtractsADDS bias, factors in weight that HELPS DEMS, and applies that to the overall LEFT LEANING assessment.My goodness. Why such fixation on Silver? This guy is a polling mouthpiece for Comrade Harris & The System.
I have a strong feeling there’s gonna be a new president. Of course that’s only speculation.
Michigan – Possibly oversampling of BOTS (Brides of The State). UnHerd had an interesting article in August. Plus there was an interesting video regarding historical bell weather states and counties. Special focus on Michigan women.
Your post would be useful were you to provide links to things you feel are interesting for everyone else to view. Sheese. Please say you are a Trump voter…
And then there are the [supposedly] UNDECIDED voters. Whew…
PROTECTTHEVOTE daught kom. This website seems to be dedicated to learning and teaching how to prevent election theft and fraud.
It has information for every state on how it’s votes are counted, and many links that show how YOU can get involved in making sure that ballots are counted fairly wherever you live.
Citizen involvement is crucial to having fair elections.
There has been a dearth of public interest in this priceless duty.
This is why so many are dissatisfied with the process today.
Amazingly, there is LOTS of room for folks to participate.
Most districts have been pitifully understaffed.
24 hour scrutiny by many is vital. Especially in swing states.
There are almost no obstacles to keep you from being a part of and a witness to our precious elections.
PLEASE check it out, and get involved if you can!
YOU are wanted and needed.
In PA here… This is seriously the most stupid thing just to make an excuse for Trump to cry foul again.
You do read, right? DOZENS of court cases found NOTHING, yet here we are again
Maybe explain how Trump cries foul along with the other MAGAs, yet the Republicans like Perry say THEIR ballots that got them elected were just fine… (hint, they are the EXACT SAME BALLOT)
Believe what you like. Voting Harris is voting for a permanent one party state.
Not a single court case in 2020 went anywhere because no judge would stick their neck out for Trump, putting a bullseye on their forehead & knowing he’ll be destroyed in the media as a violent mob burns down his house?
Legit!
Actually, there were dozens of cases where fraud was found just as there is in every election.
What was also at issue was….did the fraud rise to the level required to overturn the apparent results of the national election? No judge found that evident fraud committed in the local case before them merited a ruling that could result in forcing a rerun of the national vote.
EG: someone who handled ballots in some way is convicted of fraud in regard to ten ballots. While it is safe to assume that all the ballots under their care and control may have been tampered with the evidence relates to only ten.
So does the judge throw out the results of the vote of an entire district simply because ten votes at one poll have been shown to be mishandled? Or does he say .. it is a local issue only with a tiny number of votes only shown to have been fraudulent that by themselves do not affect the outcome and what matters is what is before me…? A guilty verdict for the individual, the scrapping of the ten votes in question and that is the end of it. No discussion of the wider implications permitted. Ten votes and only ten votes are what is allowed to be the issue.
That is why Trump famously said …..we need to find eleven thousand erroneous ballots (in a particular state) to change the outcome…… That is why Trump asked a crowd to peacefully protest at the capitol to slow roll the congressional certification of the vote results so as to allow time for some cases to go to levels of court that could possibly overturn a state’s election results. Just like the Supreme Court decided the Florida results in the Bush/Gore election because of perceived problems with the counting of ballots.
correct
“No judge found that evident fraud committed in the local case before them merited a ruling that could result in forcing a rerun of the national vote.”
Overall good tone, and I do like the balance. However, most of the cases were simply thrown out, because the judge said the plaintiffs didn’t have standing. Therefore, very few if any of the 2020 cases got far enough along to determine the possible scope of the potential election fraud. Nothing was really investigated to the degree necessary to find a potential smoking gun.
And the reason for that was simple:
NO JUDGE WAS GOING TO STICK THEIR NECK OUT FOR TRUMP.
To do so would have opened themselves up to the biggest cancel culture war we’ve ever seen and would have out a bullseye on their forehead.
Hopefully, this time will be different in two regards:
1) The GOP’s ground game in the 15 most important counties in the country should have a lot more oversight.
2) Trump has the momentum, so the Dems are getting desperate which means they’re more likely to make mistakes that can be more easily brought to court and upheld.
He used the word “erroneous”? We all need to stop. We have become the laughing stock of the world. There was NO VOTER FRAUD. Trump lost. He will throw everyone and everything under the bus to not face reality.
Trump did tell the crowd to march “peacefully and patriotically” to the Capitol. But he also used far more incendiary language when speaking off the cuff in other parts of the speech, such as telling the crowd: “We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.” Once the rioting started, he could have called it off. He didn’t.
What are you talking about? Voter harassment? That’s illegal.
Here is what Dem voters are watching:
Desi Lydic on Trump & Harris’s Media Blitz & Obama’s Plea to Black Men | The Daily Show
323,125 views Oct 19, 2024
Desi Lydic weighs in on Trump and Harris’s many media appearances over the last week, including Trump’s 40-minute dance party at his town hall, Kamala Harris’s interruption-filled Fox News interview, and Barack Obama’s plea to Black men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hik6HrIWSlQ
I mean, it is funny to watch old grandpa dance like he’s jerking off two men for 40 minutes
Boy that’s graphic, Yooper. No wonder Trump has all the momentum.
No need to oversell him. I was already going to vote for him.
Strange. When I watched the video of Trump swaying to the music, that definitely is not where *my* mind went.
Instead, I just saw some people trying to make the best of a bad situation. Everybody staying relaxed and enjoying the music. Your different view of what was happening just shows the difference in what individuals see when they go through life. A sort of lifelong on the fly Rorschach test, I guess. Like….. it was Trump that had some sort of sick frame of mind as evidenced by doing that disgusting stuff on stage.
Two people fainted. What a responsible person does in a very large crowd if that happens is to get the doors open (Trump requested that but was refused) and then to try to relax and distract the crowd so that if it turns out that more faintings happen or worse (if there is a toxin in the air, for instance), people don’t panic and crush one another trying to escape. If there had been something like that going on, and there well could have been given the assassination attempts, what Trump did would have saved a lot of lives. It is crowd danger management 101. But come off with some perverted interpretation if you want to; I hope you aren’t in charge of public safety in any setting.
I’d like to see all the polls showing Harris up big as that may Get Democrats to stay home, assuming she is going to win. I don’t believe ANY Of the polls. I believe Trump is going to win Michigan.
Many Dems “stay home” anyway, voting by mail.
If the MI Muslims don’t vote for Harris, then they are voting for Trump and should pack-up in preparation for being deported to the Middle East. [lol]
So true
After 8 years Madonna finally got to all the guys in the tree stands.
Haniyeh, Nasrallah and Sinwar death — Khalas (enough) — the war is over. It boosted Biden/ Harris, but angered MI voters. Trump might deport pro Palestine protesters to Jasa. In 2024 Biden flooded swing state with cash buying votes. MI muslims will vote for Harris bc she will enable Islam’s takeover.
I’ve seen billboards with alleged 2020 Trump voters who are voting Harris this time around. Yet Sienna/NYT shows three times as many Biden voters not voting for Kamala compared to Trump voters not voting for Trump.
As much as I distrust the NYT, I believe their polling much more than I do the Harris campaign.
Not to mention her entire unforced error in her grilling by Fox News Bret Baier, which has not been covered in this column.
Her comments today that he might not be fit to serve is pure gaslighting. She skips events, cuts them short, I believe even questioned her VP selection as she said she was fatigued. Trump has been going non stop for, in his words, 48 days without rest since he was shot. If anyone questions his stamina they are silly. Lots of other things to question but not that.
She may be leading. The never Trump is an immovable force, demonstrably it is currently being held at bay by someone who hasn’t shown me one thing on tthis campaign trail via her demeanor, policy, tone of voice and messaging that she’s prepared.
At this point with the money spent, endless ads everywhere, poll calls (I have a landline, in Wisconsin), let’s just get it over with and let the sh1tshow begin again.
Meanwhile Mr. Sharp as a Tack is still president in plain sight, proving the Democrats really don’t care if we have a functional president only that that office is never held by Trump again (Pelosi’s own words).
Buckle up!
Lies, damnable lies, and political polls.
I wouldn’t trust any of these polls as they are biased similar to almost all forecasters or salespeople.
Allow me to rephrase that for you:
“I wouldn’t trust any poll that doesn’t agree with how I want the results to turn out.”
You’re welcome.
Pollsters are biased like any other human beings. Those that don’t reveal their methodologies are especially suspect.
Nate Silver and most if not every aggregator of polls won’t include a poll that does not reveal methodology.
The biased pollsters are internal polls and others like Rasmussen. But I posted those biases.
All the good aggregators take bias into consideration.
So bias does not do all that much good, if any.
Curiously, two of the least biased and most highly rated are NYT and Fox.
So don’t judge a pollster by who is paying the bill.
Have you read the mail in ballot rules in the European countries? They are much tighter due to fraud concerns. I expect fraud here because if you make it easy it’s going to happen. Trump will lose and the Party Media will pretend and shout down those that find fraud. We will have a California style “democracy” for decades after this election.