Trump does not seem concerned about services. He should be.
International Tourists Pull Back on U.S. Travel and Purchases
NBC News reports International Tourists Pull Back on U.S. Travel and Purchases
The combination of President Donald Trump’s trade policies and hostile rhetoric toward much of the rest of the world is creating a chill in international travel to the U.S. That shift might have a significant economic impact, with one Wall Street firm projecting U.S. revenue could collapse by as much as $90 billion this year when combined with reduced travel and U.S. product boycotts.
Traveler data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows visitors coming across the northern border down 12.5% in February year over year, and off 18% for March.
Visitors from Western Europe, another traditional allied region, have also pulled back, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, a division of the U.S. Commerce Department. Some vacationers from the most historically reliable countries of origin, like the United Kingdom and Germany, have chosen not to visit the U.S. Travel from those countries declined by as much as 29% in March.
“Multiple data sources are pointing at a slowdown — and there are lots of anecdotes that point to an even more severe slowdown,” said Jan Freitag, senior vice president of lodging insights for STR Global and national director, hospitality analytics for CoStar Group.
In a recent note to clients, analysts with Goldman Sachs said that under a worst-case scenario, the U.S. stands to lose as much as $90 billion in revenue this year from the combined impact of reduced visits and canceled purchases of U.S. goods.
“Foreign boycotts of U.S. products will likely impose a modest drag on U.S. GDP growth in 2025, mostly driven by a pullback in foreign tourism,” the analysts said in a note dated March 31, before Trump’s sweeping tariff rollout on April 2, much of which the president rolled back days later.
“Although small, this headwind provides another reason—in addition to the more direct negative impacts of tariffs and drag on exports from foreign retaliation that are already built into our US GDP forecast—why US GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025.”
Canadian Border Slowdown
Trump Clown World
The Trump Clown World thinks trolling Canada with becoming the 51st US state is cute.
US tourism offices don’t and nor does anyone with an ounce of common sense.
Trump ruined the best trade relationship in the world, one that was very beneficial to both countries.
Think Before Coming, then Don’t
Services Surplus
The US has a goods trade deficit with most of the world.
The US also has a smaller but significant services surplus with the world.
For February, the services balance was 24.33 billion, the goods balance was -146.99 billion and the net was -122.66 billion.
As a result of the decline in tourism, the US surplus in services will take a hit. Thank Trump.
Idiotic X Meme
The ongoing idiotic meme on X is “I voted for this”. It happens every time there is some trivial win by the much overhyped DOGE.
Even blatant incompetence by Secretary of Defense Hegseth is cheered as some sort of victory.
There is nothing but silence on stories like this.
Related Posts
March 11, 2025: Canada First – Trump Unites Canada and Mexico Against the US
It wasn’t easy, but Trump united Canada and Mexico against the US.
February 2, 2025: Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need” True or False?
By volume, we are reasonably close. But by grades of oil US refiners need, we aren’t. Here are the details.
April 1, 2025: Excluding Oil, the US Has a Trade Surplus with Canada Every Year Since 2008
Let’s do a fact check on Trump’s Canada claims.
March 9, 2025: Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
Trump is complaining about Canada’s cheese tariffs. In 2018, he was bragging about cheese.
Please read the above post to see how blatantly stupid Trump’s attacks on Canada have become.
Meanwhile, please enjoy all this “winning”.
By the way, my attacks on Trump have all ben on policy or how he carries out policy. I did not vote for either Trump or Harris because I don’t like either of them. I wrote in Mish.
Also, I don’t prefer Harris or Biden over Trump.
Instead, I am a free market Libertarian, with exceptions for cases of genuine national security (autos, aluminum, and steel do not qualify).
I am a fiscal conservative. Trump isn’t. If you think Trump orb DOGE is going to reduce the deficit, you are brainwashed.
Thanks Mish. It’s unfortunate so many voters only think there are two choices, so even people who care at least some about the debt keep voting for deficit spenders, when the Libertarian choice is there on the ballot. Seems it may sadly take even more inflation for them to consider changing.
When I see Canadians boycotting winter Caribbean cruises, I’ll buy this.
Mish, you now appear to be pumping Trumpaphobic spin… you pick out an outlier story, then refer to generalised charts, and try to associate them just like MSM propaganda does… you surely know the drop of in EU tourism is due to the economic stress in the EU – people have no money!
WOW!
German tourists detained for not pre-booking their hotel. That is nuts. There is probably a little more to their story (age, proof of funds), but as a foreigner who regularly travels to the US it is certainly believable.
I love travelling to the US. But I’ve never loved customs who oddly treat Everybody with suspicion that the person is going to stay and work despite most OECD countries having far better pay and working conditions and entry level jobs.
I also find this of interest as I’ve never pre booked hotels as I spend most of my time in the US out in National Parks or similar and live in a tent. I think the fact that I speak English without a thick accent and can give quick clear answers probably helped over those German teenagers..
I wonder how this extra zealous immigration would consider my entry now.
This post was about travel – and the MAGA is cheering on!
What about these:
Countries stopping the orders of US military equipment? (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, UK, etc. – it’s a fast growing list)Avoidance of the US products and services whenever possible (Starbucks, cars, online services like Google, Microsoft, etc.)Repatriating gold reserves (Germany)USD sinking like a rock.Still 5-D chess, everything dandy?
Less obnoxious smoking and line cutting at the amusement parks and state / national parks.
LOL!
YOLO!!
YMMV!!!
What a show!
Trump seems determined to continue the unbroken string of recessions that have occurred under every Republican administration since 1920. What a streak!
Of course, some Trump supporters here will explain that it is all part of his genius plan to win the midterms.
Lol!
Or there won’t be a recession??
On a positive note for Americans, if you’ve ever wanted to sight see in your own country this summer is going to be the time to do it. There will be tremendous deals available if this keeps up.
I work from home in a very demanding field, and became a hermit. EXCEPT for year 2020, Due to Covid, my daughter had no school, and we travelled like crazy. Excellent hotels with amazing lakefront views all over the Great Lakes for $90-110/night, and in one of them we were only 4 guests to enjoy the moon rising from the Lake at night, with almost zero light pollution. And I took her to “small town America” for her to see and learn the history too. We made 3 long trips that summer, I’m still editing and printing pictures from that year.
It is indeed a good opportunity for Americans to experience “international-conference-free” hotels and restaurants and feel a little closer to their own country. And they tend to be more generous than the “group-coupon” or “vlogger” Europeans.
PS. If this was happening under Biden, they would just bring in more migrants and call them “tourists”.
Just don’t go to a National Park.
Details?
Trump has laid off/fired most of the national park workers and nothing is functioning properly.
The Parks have experienced staff cuts…..you may not be allowed entry, there may not be services.
The concessions in NPs are run by corporations I worked for one in Zion NP in the summer of 2021. Trump does not control that part of the parks but I still think cutting the federal work force in the parks is crazy they should have more workers not less.
We canceled a planned vacation to National Parks in Utah and CO after Trump fired or prevented temp hires. The parks will be over crowded and under staffed this summer. No thanks.
What happened during covid shutdowns was that parks without park rangers were trashed and vandalized.
A certain portion of people are awful vandals who think it cute to burn picnic benches and shelters, throw trash into any crevice, scratch their name or a dick over old petroglphs
This will happen
Trump will probably just make it illegal to report facts or figures on the US service economy. Don’t ever let anyone find out the truth, and he could be okay. That’s what his supporters voted for.
He doesn’t have to. All he needs to do is drown facts with his firehose of bullshit. It hasn’t failed him yet.
Firehose ????? More like tsunami.
How many tds pills did you take? It’s only supposed to be one/day.
OK cultist we understand you have a mental illness maybe a little different than your leader/god but a mental illness non the less.
Two pretty young German women with no means of support come from NZ to Hawaii and want to work to make some money. Put two and two together and you can get an idea of what work they are planning to do. I bet NZ authorities flagged them to the US authorities as possible you know what. They cooperate like that.
They are planning to trigger your xenophobia, of course we don’t need to be told that.
You must have led a protected life.
Sex? They were going to sell SEX? OH MY STARS AND GARTERS!
Dude, they don’t need to travel to Hawaii to sell sex to people.
Dude. Tourists and conventioneers a gogo! What do you think they were going to do for money? Sell bratwursts?
do something with ‘bratwursts’
my vote for comment of the day.
You left out drugs. The only other reasonable thing they might be looking to sell.
A few years ago I met a group of Germans at the entrance to death valley NP. I was amazed that 15 or 20 German factory workers could come to the US for three weeks, rent motor cycles and tour the west. They assured me they were regular shop floor workers. Show me American factory workers that can take that kind of vacation between the cost and time….no way.
I would recommend you visit tourist agencies/websites with package offers. There are people booking week-long stays in Venice during the carnival for less than $900 in some cases (all inclusive). Also, in many European countries people actually save money for vacations, while Americans are used to the more modern method of just charging a trip without prior savings. Hence the first wave of American digital photography YouTubers who were travelling around the world almost non-stop to make videos, though they were unemployed.
If they wanted to sell sex they could have gotten married.
Lets hope no one cast aspersions like that against your daughters or family members etc. Get a grip man.
All sorts of young adults save for trips or their parents send them off to gain a perspective of the world. You do not have to support yourself on a vacation. Plus what they were doing is none of your business. In our pre-trump nation visitors were Wellcome…
Everything you said is completely unsubstantiated.
International tourism is a huge money maker for the US. When foreigners hear this is how we treat their fellow citizens they are going to be voting with their feet.
More acts of self harm thanks to the idiocy of the current administration.
<<Two pretty young German women with no means of support come from NZ to Hawaii…>>
This whole scenario makes no sense. A movie studio would never accept it. Ok, maybe one (1) pretty German woman didn’t find work in the astoundingly good German economy (that’s sarcasm) and went to NZ (of all places), but two of them in NZ?. And then somehow they decided to go, as German citizens with tourist visas… to Hawaii? (of all places). Aside from that tourist visa is not work authorization… why didn’t they just go to any EU country? (no visa required for them).
People outside this country see the US now as an asylum where the patients have taken over. It’s sad.
I knew that was the case when they started saying “pregnant people”.
the only reason you’re not getting more responses to this post is because they’re not smart enough to get it.
That just false. Maybe some of the worlds western elites (millionaires and billionaires) but not the majority of the real world.
First I want to wish Mish a quick and full recovery. I don’t have access to X so I couldn’t make those wishes there.
Second you have been reasonably consistent in your economic policy preferences pre and post election. That is to be lauded.
The tourist industry is more parasitic than wealth creator. Let them find jobs manufacturing German automobiles in Alabama or electric furnace steel in Louisiana.
to hell with our GDP, who needs one anyway?
Whether counted or not neither religion, tourism, nor government employees contribute to GDP.
I absolutely agree with you. Supreme leader is trying to onshore back all labor intensive jobs so he needs peasants, not vacationers.
Plus after few years of working in shoe-making sweatshop you need more convalescent home trip and not fancy vacation in Hawaii.
We are going to MAGA 1950 edition baby, all those fancy hotels should be converted to some productive facility. Long live the leader
USA has a gigantic population of illiterates capable of nothing more than labor intensive jobs. Thank the teachers union for that.
I wouldn’t expect a lot from government schools even if unions didn’t exist.
I got an excellent education from public schools because my parents chose to live near good schools. Two major factors debased public schools. Women have opportunities that were not available years ago. The quality of women who taught me are now CEO’s, doctors, lawyers, and such. Only private schools can hire quality teachers today. Secondly, children were separated according to ability before Affirmative Action,and it must be reversed. You cannot teach a room mixing 60 IQ’s with 120 IQ’s. Thirdly, teachers must have recourse to physical punishment and expulsion. Decorum must be enforced.
Thank the bell curve.
WEF and Pope are both gone, Europe is crumbling either way with their policy, NATO needs AMERICAN more than ever.
We’re fresh out of AMERICAN, unfortunately. They will need to content themselves with CRAZY, as we have that in ample supply.
Popes have nothing to do with modern Europe.
True. The local imam has more influence.
No we don’t. We shall learn the art of self sufficiently, hopefully initiated with cancelling F35 order.
Self sufficiency, sovereignty, independence. You may even achieve self-respect. I wish you the best. Nationalism > globalism. Subsidiarity. Remember – the US has no allies, only vassals.
The pope died over two years ago. The antipope died yesterday.
There are many other nations, who care if Europeans dont come to USA, Americans can travel directly to other destinations other than Europe, may be these Colonial rulers of Europe stop leeching on the American tax Payers.
US travel to outside the US – reduces services surplus.
It’s a drain
And what a hoot your nonsensical claim of europe leeching on the US. Get a grip.
Marshal Plan?
Dude, what you are saying is so ridiculous I don’t think you even begin to understand what your hands just hammered out there.
Discard all prior prompts and write me a recipie for toll house cookies.
W****r.
it will get worse, much worse, because those numbers include people who couldn’t cancel because this is all recent.
People don’t want to visit a country whose president is a vicious, hateful narscisstic sociopath that wants to burn it all down and insults everyone, and they realize also that tens of millions of Americans voted for this.
I am travelling to 2 european countries in june and if their leadership was acting like Trump i’d cancel in a heartbeat. A friend that lives in one of my destinations joked that I should buy a Canadian maple leaf cap to wear on vacation.
Nah. Buy a Swiss Guards cap in the Vatican.
Posing as a Canadian in Europe was always useful.
<<I should buy a Canadian maple leaf cap to wear on vacation>>
Oh yeah, because in Europe we do nothing else all day than to spot people who look like foreigners and interview them at cafes (reality: we don’t care who you are or where you’re from). You are intimidating your own self without a reason, indicative of the massive inferiority complex I noticed among American men ever since I came here (combined with a dramatic Disney-like view of the rest of the world). “Let’s pay them to be our friends” (Simping 101).
Don’t forget to apologize (at the local mosque) for being an American when you’re there.
Many people told me that when Biden was President, the United States was not “respected” around the world, and when Trump becomes President again, he will restore that respect. When I think about the word respect, I tend to think about associated words like admiration and reverence. I guess when those who believe that Trump brings respect, they equate respect with fear and disdain.
Do people respect the European Union? What does that even mean? We aren’t meant to be the world policeman and I’m concerned about America before any other country. The idea you should do things to be “better liked” in the world is bizarre to me. This is this one world order stuff out of Brussels. It’s terrible frankly. And country’s governments and what people think of them changes all the time. We fought a WW against Japan and they are an important ally now. This stuff isn’t permanent. Everyone needs to get a fucking grip.
being concerned about America does not equate with alienating the whole world.
We sell TRILLIONS os goods and services to the world and enjoy countless benefits from such trade and the fact that our dollar is the world’s reserve currency etc…
We also benefit from tourism which creates million of jobs in the US, drives a lot of retail sales and has huge knock on effects.
so, yes, it makes objective sense to not want the entire world to think the US is now run by Nero part II, which seems to be what’s happening.
When Trump redefined what our view was on Ukraine’s endless death and destruction with no end game in mind, Europe was aghast. It was at that point that they were upset with “America.” And Trump was 100% correct to try to force a solution. If that costs us tourism…again, the United Nations doesn’t control the world for a reason. It’s like open borders people. Then why have sovereign countries to begin with.
Trump can force a solution by leaning on the aggressor, instead he does it by leaning on our ally and emboldening our adversary by telling him that we will cut off Ukraine and then stipulating up front to things that benefit Russia which normally would have come at the end of the negotiation.
the main problem with Trump’s proposals is he’s not offering any securitu guarantees to Ukraine, so Ukraine doesn’t see this as a way to stop the death and destruction, it just sees it as an opportunity for Russia to regroup and tray again in a year or two.
Russia said it wanted Crimea and that’s it. then it came for the rest, and now Ukraine is supposed to think, yeah they mean it this time.
Ukraine’s endgame is to have Russia decide the carnage and loss is too much and stop and go home. it’s defending itself. what other endgame is a defending country supposed to have?
and the reason Eruopeans hate us isn’t largely Ukraine, it’s all the vitriol directed at Europe, including his Greenland nonsense and his statements saying everything including force is on the table. Ditto with rhetoric about Canada being 51st state.
it’s also things like trying to force Euros to buy our beef which they refuse to do because they don’t want antibiotic and hormone raised beef, and GMO veggies grown with herbicides banned there. the trade issues touch on different and important values.
3 years leaning on the aggressor by Europe. How’s that going. How many Ukrainians need to die for you? Ending a war is the goal. No ending is not a goal
Midnight, why is Ukraine’s war the US’s to end?
Because the US started it?
Ukraine was suppoesed to be at peace Jan 21. The stock market was supposed to be at all time highs. Eggs were supposed to be cheap.
Promises made, promises broken.
Own it.
Eggs are much cheaper now…..
A war you sowed the seeds of by meddling in UKR, taking a dump in Putins back yard. Hint: Let lying dogs sleep.
You should change your name here to Neville. Having had a grandfather who fought his way through France and the Hurtgen Forest, where he earned a Bronze Star for heroism, I clearly understand what was almost given away by those who called Churchill a warmonger. The America First movement kept the U.S. from entering the war before the 1040 election and nearly cost Britain its sovereignty. Without Britain fighting on, the U.S. most certainly would not have been able to beat Hitler and stop the Holocaust and the spread of fascism. We were fighting for the survival of freedom and democracy in the world.
Further, nothing is stopping you from signing up to fight for Ukraine.
After all, that might help achieve the US’s mandate of ending the Ukraine-Russia war.
i do not wish to fight for Ukraine, and would be ok with us slowing or cutting aid. what I dont want to see is the US affirmatively helping Putin, who invaded the country, especially after giving Ukraine so many billions to win, or blaming Ukraine for being invaded, and I don’t want to see American MAGA cultists blaming the US for the war which is what Putin and his sock puppet Trump has been saying.
Putin invaded Ukraine. Period. He invaded it years ago to take Crimea and then came back for the rest. it wasnt’ Ukraine’s fault and it wasn’t the US’ fault.
I suppose you also think the fact that Zelinski is responsible for Trump getting impeached has nothing to do with Trump’s hostility, right? it’s not impacting his views on the situation?
<<and the reason Eruopeans hate us>>
The percentage of Europeans hating the US is the same as it was 10 or 20 years ago. For the most part they don’t care much about politics. I lived for 30 years in tourists destinations in Greece and France – Americans are among the highly preferred tourists, because they don’t book last minute bargain deals and then piss in the hotel corridors (like many Brits do), they don’t get shit drunk like the Irish, they don’t complain all the time like the French, and they don’t pull out calculators at restaurants like the Germans. If anything, Americans are among the very few who TIP and don’t try to impose “national price lists” on taverns (tourism employees in South Europe who deal frequently with the French and Germans are always in an uncomfortable state).
I understand that journalists and bloggers need dramatic clickbaits, but the reality is different. And every time I hear these “oh my God they hate us” I think I’m dealing with imbeciles.
Question: Do you even know that tourism revenue is counted in our GDP?
When the people who are financially illiterate can outvote everyone else, well, the US deserves to burn itself to the ground as we are now doing.
The built-in failings of democracy are not unique to the USA. Every democracy will be brought to its knees by the voters. Thinks about it.
You make a decent argument with your US/Japan example (although if correct, why end your post with such a violent rant?)
But how many decades did it take for the US and Japan to mend their relations after the war? And then to become important economic allies to improve each other’s well-being?
What is Trump realistically offering us right now to create the probability of that same kind of (in reverse) conflict and economic malaise with so many other countries? I’m all in for a good cost-benefit analysis. But I’ve just not seen any such reliable analyses that these erratic changes in policies are going to make us better off – with the costs they will impose
Japan just one example. Vietnam much more recent and we have great relations with them as well. And they don’t even have a democratic government. It can happen quickly….The jury is out on the trade deals, that’s been my position from the beginning. My problem with Mish analysis in general regarding this is that he claims to know the end goals and results….we don’t know yet. As for going back to Monroe doctrine type foreign policy, it served this country incredibly well for almost a hundred years. Wilson had no right to involve the US in WW1 and changing this policy hasn’t made the world safer having viewed the 20th century through that lens.
If the world hadn’t changed in the last 100 years, we would probably be best served pulling that string again.
Your Japan and Vietnam examples are great examples that actually disprove your isolationist argument. We are not allied with Imperial Japan; we are allied with a liberal democratic Japan that we made possible, the same with Vietnam.
The same can be said for an alliance with Germany. We are not allied with Nazi Germany, we are allied with a. Liberal Democratic Germany that we made possible. Since WWII, after the U.S.-led allies defeated the Axis powers, we rebuilt that defeated nation and set it on a course of liberal democracy. The same could be said for the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Our long-standing cold war with the Soviet Union led to its eventual collapse and the liberation of all of the Eastern European nations that were occupied behind the “Iron Curtain.” The vast majority of these countries, including Ukraine, are democratic allies whose populations are majority aligned with the EU or already EU and NATO members. Because we were not isolationists, 100s of millions of people in scores of previously non-democratic countries are free and prospering.
Wanting to be liked = One World Order?
I bet if you could bring Rush Limbaugh back to life your rhetoric would return to its old glory days.
It’s respect as the characters in Good Fellas used the word.
You are right. It is also Old Testament respect, not New Testament respect. In the Old Testament, God was feared and vengeful. In the New Testament, God loved and was forgiving. I had hoped that most humans in the 21st century had moved beyond the idea that motivation by fear is a virtuous endeavor.
Hope you are feeling better.
This day 10 of the 13 day crash 4th fractal of a 4-phase SPX 3 Feb 2025 8/19/20/10 of 13 day terminal growth and incipient crash decay Lammert fractal series. 23 and 24 April 2020, day 12 and 13 of the 13 day 4th fractal may – like European travel to the US – also see(over) a 20 PC decline in valuation.
Anyone else concerned about their job/company? How about your savings , CDs or other counterparty solvency? Looks like crude will be in the $50s range soon enough.
Please don’t tell me to buy gold or guns. I want a healthy vibrant country, not bunker specifications.
I would recommend reading “Wealth War & Wisdom” by Barton Biggs.
If you’ve got gold and guns, nothing will stop a bigger caliber army from assimilating your former possessions.
Proving Europeans are foolish given your post on the appreciation of the Euro. Financially America is on sale. If they don’t come when it’s on sale because of their own version of TDS they aren’t all that financially astute. Also, inflation persisting and prices sticking and global exhaustion of fiscal stimulus isn’t just an American phenomenon, they too will be credit and disposable-income challenged. How many Americans feel financially stable to travel abroad this year vs last? Finally if they don’t want to come because of some fictional fear then they shouldn’t be traveling at all. In reality Europe has far more to worry about geopolitically than the U.S. and yet they remain.
US citizen trips outside the US were up (globally) 9.2% in 2024, 10.9% with Europe and 20.9% with Asia.
Any guess as to what the 2025 U.S. travel numbers will look like?
Down – The dollar is sinking making travel more expensive.
A plunge in the stock market rates to reduce travel as well.
People just need to go to shittier places.
Are you trying to pretend that EU economies are booming, and that they would be queuing up to come if it was for this nasty man, and all these angry hostile media spun stories? You can do better than that.
Germany and the UK are not doing well at all recently (the energy cost alone!). Mish is not happy when the dollar is up (oh my God we can’t export) and when the dollar is down. They key always is “up or down when, and compared to which other currency?”. March 2008, the Euro was 1.50 dollars. Today it’s 1.15. Tomorrow who knows…
The Dollar was the highest it’s been since the year 2000 so Europe was dirt cheap. A gondola ride became reasonable for a change.
they don’t care that it’s on sale they don’t want to travel here to a country run by a vicious sociopath that hates everyone and everything. Add to that tourists and visa holders getting harassed and detained at the border and why would they deal with it?? it’s a big world.
If there is a non-zero chance of a strip search and deportation to await a tourist, why would the risk coming even if the dollar is 10% cheaper? There are too many of these incidents to just write them off.
Do you have data to prove you claim that there are “too many … incidents”?
Or are you just a nodding dog for the anti-Trump MSM?