Let’s do a fact check on Trump’s Canada claims.
In addition, the US has a huge services surplus with Canada driven by sectors like technology, financial services, and intellectual property licensing from companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
I do not have year-by-year services numbers. Grok AI notes “Estimates from earlier years and commentary suggest the services surplus could be in the range of $25–30 billion USD annually.”
Spotlight Canada
The Imbalance with Canada
Looking at all this data, I just don’t know how Canada can treat us this poorly.
For more details, please see Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”
Damn. I was all geared up for liberation.
Reciprocal Tariffs
Reader: “Tariffs are reciprocal. All Canada has to do is to lower the tariffs they charge the US to what they want the US to charge them.”
Me: USMCA IS reciprocal right now. In extremely minor instances where it isn’t, TRUMP negotiated the deal.
Please read over and over Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
The above post contains over a dozen instances in which Trump bragged what a great deal.
It was such a great deal that Trump thanked Mexico and Canada. Notably USMCA is “Good for everybody – Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions – tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country’s worst Trade Deal, NAFTA!”
Good deal or not (and I think it was a very good deal for the US), the fact of the matter is Trump has no legitimate right to unilaterally break a deal ratified by the Senate 89-10.
The additional pertinent fact is Trump just proclaimed to the world that he may not honor any deal, even those he signs.
At some point there is a cost to this lack of trust.
Related Posts
March 31, 2025: Harley-Davidson Demands Reciprocal Tariffs if Europe Targets its Bikes
I am geared up for reciprocal, counter-reciprocal, and counter-counter-reciprocal tariffs with no one yet defining reciprocal.
February 2, 2025: Trump Claims “We Have All the Oil We Need”
By volume, we are reasonably close. But by grades of oil US refiners need, we aren’t. Here are the details.
March 22, 2025: Should the US Import Oil from Venezuela Instead of Canada?
The answer to this question is seemingly obvious, but ….
But “Trump Considers Extending Chevron License to Pump Oil in Venezuela”
I sarcastically commented “This makes perfect sense because Venezuela is a much better neighbor than Canada.”
March 24, 2025: Trump Announces 25 Percent Tariffs on Countries that Buy Venezuela Oil
I eagerly await Trump’s major announcement for Venezuela to be the 53rd state.
Q: Since a total halt of Canadian oil would eliminate the US trade deficit with Canada, should we stop importing Canadian oil, then eliminate all tariffs on Canada?
A: Don’t be silly. To do that Canada needs to become the 51st state.
you are entirely missing the point of the exercise, Mish. Maybe the bankers at TDB can give you a clue.
Thanks, Mish. A great economically written summary of how TrumpCo operates, how they Bullshits us (Blatantly) and how things are far FAR different than the headlines every show us!
With that said, I have family in Canada and VERY close friends who we meet annually in Europe and they are NOT that Anti-American as some would want us to believe. In some cases, they even go so far as to say that programs like DOGE make great sense.
Without exception: they have HATED the last ten-year regime under T-CO….he is a blatant liar. There is HOPE in their words, which frankly did not surprise me at all.
I have a Step-Dad in Pickering and he comes right out and defies his T-CO loving pals and says that TrumpCO will be good for Canada in the long run.
We shall see.
Great idea! If we can cherry pick the correct imports, we probably have a trade surplus with the Globe.
Canadian maple syrup sucks.
^single digit IQ – you must be American
Vermont maple syrup is better.
Have you traveled North at ALL?
Then don’t buy it.
You gotta buy it closer to the Trees. I love it.
I can say that on the Canadian side, we are already dominated by American interests just because of the sheer size and proximity of the US economy so we are not buying Trump’s justifications. I can also say that it is quite apparent to most Canadians and therefore Trump has no credibility in the eyes of many here including conservatives. We will do what we need to do.
Thanks for that A P. I am sure Canada will manage during the trade wars. On the plus side, Trump has probably brought Canadians together more than any Canadian politician could. Too bad its at America’s expense.
Lol. My comment is awaiting approval!
In the meantime: thanks A P.
Thanks A P.
Not all of your Canadian voters feel the same way that you do and it DID surprise me a bit. My Step-Dad was a Canadian Politician and was involved in Trade Agreements and he said that TRUMPCO I was a reasonable approach and it HAS surprised him how inconsistent that the “messaging” (His words) has become with Mr. TRUMPCO.
We stop importing Canadian oil and all is well for us. Good idea! Too bad for Alberta though. Don’t know what Ontario and Quebec will do without Albertan money transfers though.
I don’t see how all is well for us if we stop importing heavy oil from Canada and elsewhere. Over one third of the oil our refineries use is imported. Gas and diesel shortages would see us lining up for fuel like the 1970s within a month.
Insiders tell me that that WILL NOT HAPPEN. Alberta is beaten up but they are not stupid.
Alberta wants to sell us their oil. Their economy depends on it.
What I said was “if WE stop importing oil from Canada” we are only hurting ourselves, because we need their oil.
Yeah you do that. G a s will go up. Refineries in the Midwest built to use it eill go out of businesses. Gasoline and diesel shortages will ensue.
^s I ngle digit IQ Americ a n
Retooling the refineries is expensive but certainly possible and especially if we use American equipment to do so it will stimulate manufacturing here in the US and not in Canada. Just like Canada we have alternatives too.
We have had shale oil growth for 15 years. And in all that time, our refineries did not think it was worthwhile to reconfigure for that oil. I doubt that they will reconfigure now that we are reaching peak shale oil in the next few years. By the time a new refinery gets built or an old one gets retooled (say 2030 at the earliest), shale oil will be in decline.
FUBAR, do NOT assume that ALL AMERICANS are insulated from Canadian trade or how things work. You are revealing deeply held beliefs that make you sound rather idiotic.
It is a great Sucking sound that those Provincial Payments are in Canada (Dinging Alberta)…
Mike Shedlock
20 hours ago
Starting Tuesday morning for at least 30 hours, I will be in economic limbo. I have posts scheduled, and some very good ones, but I will not be current on news including liberation day.
I am on an overnight photography trip, Reflection Canyon Utah. Unfortunately, the weather sucks, at least that is the current forecast. But the trip is on.
This means I will be very delayed in approving comments. Don’t repeat them as I won’t see them.
Some regular posters have their comments regularly go into hold. I believe ABCD is one. CzarChasmReigns and Lil’ mister are two more I am aware of. There are more. I don’t know why, but likely changing IP address.
If you don’t see your comments for over a day, starting tomorrow at roughly 8:00 AM Central time, that is why.
PapaDave or someone, please post this as a comment on my automated Posts on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thanks
Thanks for posting this Bmcc.
Excluding the taxes i pay, i’d be rich!
I thought Trump’s latest explanation/lie was that he was slapping tariffs on Canada because of fentanyl, or something. Honestly who can keep track of Trump’s b.s.
The most recent US government report on the Fentanyl problem doesn’t mention Canada even once. Trump merely used fentanyl from Canada as an excuse to break USMCA for “national security reasons”.
And now everyone knows he will always find an excuse to break any future agreements he signs. So no one trusts us anymore.
That is the art of the deal. When I was in deep negotiations with Suppliers, my first move was to signal that we did not NEED them (even if we did).
That would then cause doubts. I could see it in their body language. So, read up on Negotiating Tactics which I actually taught my junior buyers. There are SO MANY stages in a negotiation that I would wear out my eyes staring at this screen.
Read this: “……The Art of Deception” is a book by Kevin Mitnick…great stuff. I learned from this book and from raw mistakes I made in my 20’s (50 years ago)…
How many signed deals did you renege on?
Nobody to deal with until Canada election on Apr 28. N/C until a new gov is formed.
Nope. Negotiations have never stopped with the Canadian government, even with an election happening. After the Trump- Carney phone call, Trump even started talking nice about Canada. In addition, provincial governments are also in constant contact with their closest US state trading partners.
It is possible that we will see the result of these negotiations tomorrow. Will Canada be less impacted by Trump’s tariff announcement than other countries? If they are, then the ongoing negotiations were successful for Canada. However it is also possible that Trump will do blanket tariffs on all countries equally.
What a show! Looking forward to tomorrow!
I thought that u want to enjoy your family and friends, while making money and u don’t care about politics and tariffs, but all of the sudden u are all over the place.
That is my priority in life. I did my 5 mile run at 7 am. Traded while markets were open.
And Mish asked me to check in more frequently while he is away. I won’t say why, but I am making some time in my day to help him out and check in more often than usual.
Interesting indeed! Do you think Trump brought Greenland into the so called mix, as a power play of sorts? What about the Alaska fields being opened up now too, can they help in anyway, but be more oil to export, which is good, but any of what we need up there, or something to help us with our energy shortfalls (ie. heavy)? I really think for strategic reasons, Trump wants Greenland, but you know energy as well as anyone I know. Thoughts?
Alaskan oil is appropriate for our refineries. It gets to the US west coast by ship.
Alaska produces around 0.42 mbpd; uses about 20% of it, and ships around 0.34 mbpd to the west coast.
Incentives could double production and perhaps add another 0.4 mbpd of oil for US west coast refiners. This could replace the oil sent by ship from Canada to the west coast. Canada could then sell more oil by ship to Asia, and probably sell it at higher prices.
What Alaskan oil cannot do is replace the 3 mbpd that Canada sends by pipeline to the US midwest. There is no way to get it there in quantity.
Regarding Greenland. There are no active oil fields in Greenland.
I don’t understand Trump’s focus on Greenland. We already have a military base there. We closed two other bases and could negotiate with Greenland to reopen them if needed. They don’t have any resources worth extracting in the tiny amount of accessible land there that isn’t covered by a mile of ice. They are part of NATO already. I take Trump’s interest as US Imperialism.
Right on, Papa. Carney is good for America because he is a GLOBALIST THINKER who has a hard time hiding his corruption. Trump will step ON his face to get over the bullshit that he bathes in.
I would have preferred Polievre because he would be better for my Canadian oil and gas stocks. But it isn’t my decision. Still, I suspect Carney will be more oil and gas friendly than Trudeau ever was. A win either way for Canadian oil stocks.
I’m sure that Carney will thank Trump for handing him the victory on a silver platter. Two months ago the Liberals were projected to win 10 seats. Now they are projected to win 190 seats.
What a turnaround thanks to Trump.
With Trump you always have to guess whether what he says/thinks on economics is based on stupidity (doesn’t know) or cupidity (knows but lies). In the case of Canada, it seems to be a weird combination of stupidity and cupidity.
Trump thinks?
I don’t know… One of the Richest People on Earth, Elected to the most powerful Position in the World Twice, had an incredibly successful TV Show, owns anything and everything He wants, Etc.
I would have to say that “He Aces Economics” about as good as anyone in the World.
Albert, it is all in the game of the ART OF DECEIVING and keep people off-balance. Nothing makes Trump happier than when people get all weepy and freaked out by his shallow words. He is pretty good at it.
I got better and better at it – – esp in the last stages of a deal, where I was squeaking out that last 5% of our Net Profits (all pre-calculated) and the way that I did it: I would get up and simply walk out but I would leave my notes (Pre-typed) sitting there for them to look at and the top line was to make up a Company name that had been contacted for their starting numbers with us.
I could always tell, when I got back that the other side had read my phony sheet.
YEP, I played deception to great profits for our side.
great post and makes it all so much easier to understand. it’s insanity. and everyone on planet earth knows trump might renege tomorrow on everything he agrees to this afternoon.
Who is Trump’s advisor? “Currently a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management LP and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute in New York City, Miran holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University and his dissertation advisor was Martin Feldstein, an eminent American economist who chaired the CEA during the Reagan administration.”
I guess that cements the case for higher education in the U.S?
Trump’s insistence that trade deficits are subsidies or “we were richest in 1890” wouldn’t be so bad if I thought that he was trying to sell tariffs politically. But it really seems possible that Trump doesn’t know or doesn’t care to know the most basic aspects of the world beyond his ability to put his name on something.
The EU might do the same.
Moish commentators know it all.
The old excluding data trick. Now do it for the WNBA being profitable.
Let’s do Saudi Arabia next!!!
saudi is just petrodollar protection racket “customer” of the thugs kissenger and CIA……….and are pivoting to china now that the amerikan empire seems to be creaking……….same goes for israel. just our pawn.
This tragicomic snowball of errors is just getting underway. Buckle up! I can’t wait to experience all the combined, compounding effects. I think they will be with us for decades.
Thanks for shining a light on Trump’s unfair trade gaslighting of the American public and, embarrassingly, of the leaders of our friendly trade partners. The world is witnessing Trump’s trade grift out in the open on behalf of America. Trump is not doing this as a private citizen, sleazy real estate developer: he is doing this in our name. To put global trade in a language familiar to Trump, golf! Regarding global trade over the last 40 years, the U.S. has been the scratch golfer, and through the WTO, our friendly trading partners deserved a few strokes given their handicaps so that the U.S., with its advantages, would not always win by several strokes or more. Even giving a few strokes, the U.S. won every competition.
What’s fascinating is other countries’ targeting of “red states” with reciprocal tariffs.
Yes, where they can! But no one wins a trade war. We will all pay the price in future years when a more honest and statesmanlike President tries to negotiate treaties and trade agreements, and those we are negotiating with have legitimate concerns that a future President will not honor the deal at hand. The businessman who rightfully earned the nickname Don the Con is now the face of America. There will undoubtedly be a price that we will pay for that for a long time.
It is a strategic response. Inflict maximum pain on Trump’s supporters with minimum pain in your own country.
Like Canadian provinces removing US alcohol from stores. There are still lots of non-US alcohol on the shelves for Canadians to buy, so not much pain for Canadians. But lost sales for US companies.
Smart.
Meanwhile, Trump puts 25% tariffs on Canadian potash that US farmers need and must buy. This hurts US farmers more than Canadian potash companies who will sell their potash elsewhere if needed.
Dumb.
If Trump wants to help US manufacturers, he needs to help lower their costs. However, by placing tariffs on their imported inputs like steel, aluminum, energy, parts etc, he is only driving up their costs and making them less competitive.
Somewhere, Xi is beaming. There is a whole world to sell to.
If the US wants more manufacturing employment, it needs a dual education approach like you see in countries like Germany and Japan. A second-best approach is to attract FDI from countries like Germany and Japan; the foreign companies will bring their apprenticeship-based manufacturing approach to the US. and thrive (see Honda, BMW, etc.). Building a discretionary tariff wall is clearly the worst option possible. No sane FDI provider will be attracted to a country that changes its trade regime on a daily basis. All you will get is the worst FDI possible.
Yes. Business prefers long term stability and certainty in order to make investment decisions. They also like to deal with governments and institutions who won’t break their signed agreements.
Trump prides himself on creating constant uncertainty, and has already demonstrated that he will break his signed agreements.
Lose-lose.
Excluding autos and auto parts, I would bet that would also be a trade surplus.
Nope. When Trump negotiated USMCA, it ensured balanced trade with Canada in autos and auto parts. That is one of the things he was very happy about.
Canada’s trade surplus with the US is entirely from oil. Emlinate the oil that Canada sells us at a discount, and we end up with a trade surplus with Canada: as Mish keeps pointing out.
Not true. We are running a large trade deficit on autos and auto parts.
With Mexico. Not with Canada.
Not with Canada.
Not surprising, I run a deficit with my local gas station every year as well and we are both better off as he makes a profit and I have fuel. Evaluating a trade deficit is not just comparing the dollar terms.
Also, Canada, specifically Alberta sells their oil to the US at a discount because it is lower API gravity crude. Trump’s evaluation of our trading with Canada is in serious need of review.
How is Canada “ripping us off” as is being reported? When you are the reserve fiat currency, by definition doesn’t this mean you’ll run trade deficits abroad and at home as the world needs your dollars? (Our #1 export!) Removing trade deficits in the U.S. completely gums up trade, correct? I can see tariffs to protect a handful of strategic industries but applied carefully. Perhaps the goal is to seque to two types of currency, an internal currency and a trading currency for exports/imports?
Apologies for posing the multiple questions.
The truth is the US has been ripping off the rest of the world for decades by exploiting its reserve currency status. At the point, the US has an international investment position (IIP) of -88 percent of GDP, i.e. our foreign liabilities are 88 percent of GDP bigger than our foreign assets? You would expect that the US would accordingly have a large negative net income stream from the IIP. Nope! We actually have positive net income from the IIP. Foreigners are willing to hold low-yielding US assets because of the role of the dollar, while we are able to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. Obviously, Trump is now doing his best to destroy our “manna from dollar heaven.”
A gov which reduces it’s debt build a trust in its currency. By imposing tariffs to reduce import, by cutting shipping time and COST, just in time from satellites to hubs – not after a few months, no blackmails no threats – instead of assembling parts from China, Mexico and Canada and shipping them from one dot to the next dot like idiots and with some help from the high tech sector ==> we can increase productivity and reduce cost. The Europeans might do the same. Let Xi sell his EV to Africa, Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan
So the obvious step would be to stop importing oil from Canada!
Which would eliminate gasoline, diesel, heating oil etc in the midwest US.
Trump will find a way to provide with US gas diesel and heating oil.
Care to explain how he would do that? There are 26 refineries in the PADD2 midwest region that are 100% dependent on 3 mbpd of Canadian oil.
Be careful with your facts, as heads can and will explode. Have you ever heard Trump utter the words heavy crude or light crude? No, he keeps it elementary because you cannot let pesky facts and nuance into the narrative when you gaslight.
My apologies for presenting the facts.
By annexing Canada of course!
Straight out of his ass
You don’t live in the Midwest, I assume.
American genius ^
Who needs gas and diesel anyway?
Very interesting and not surprising. Trump is chaos incarnate
The problem is Carney is evil incarnate. He might as well be Satan Bilderberg chief. Cecil Rhodes scholar, meaning one who is under the thumb of British Imperialists behind the scenes, Chrystia Freeland the ukronasis childs godfather, agent of global banking interests
The only good news is that if he wins in 27 days, Alberta and maybe Saskatchewan high likelihood of seceding from Canada and joining the US
If so then the trade deficit disappears if it is all energy
Nope. 90% of Canadians totally oppose the idea of joining the US. Of the remaining 10%, most of them say they would possibly consider it. Only a tiny number actually support it.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7472194
Before Trump decided to piss off Canadians, the Conservatives had a 27% lead in opinion polls (and that party has all the Canadian MAGA supporters). In just one month this has turned into a 7% deficit and will likely lead to another Liberal government. A 34% voter swing thanks to Trump badmouthing Canada.
There’s nothing like a common enemy to unite people. Trump is the enemy that has united Canadians against the US. No Canadian province will join the US, no matter who wins their election.
Actually, those are not the numbers in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Those numbers are reflecting the whole country, which is dominated by the morons in Ontario and Quebec
Your link is to cbc, Canadian Broadcasting, an intel community/state directed “news” outlet. So garbage.
We will see. If Carney wins, and Alberta does not secede, then I will just be happy to see Canada implode.
Carney led Canada will be the enemy of the US and an enemy of mankind. Evil
You can believe whatever fantasies you wish.
However, Carney will likely win, thanks to Trump. No Canadian province will secede, thanks to Trump. And Canada will not implode if Carney is elected.
Though Canada will suffer because of Trump’s tariff war. Just like the US will suffer.
Excluding porn and oil, the US would probably have a massive surplus with Canada.
Without energy, the trade surplus is ,+$54 Billion in favor of the USA
Facts are hard for Americans