About 11,000 people turn 65 every day. This will last for 3 years.
There are nearly 40 million more people aged 65 and older than in 2010.
However, there are only 9 million more people paying into Social Security.
By 2035, the Social Security Administration estimates there will be 77 million people age 65 and older.
Baby Boomers Hit ‘Peak 65’
More than 11,200 Americans will turn 65 every day — or over 4.1 million every year — from 2024 through 2027, according to estimates from the Retirement Income Institute at the Alliance for Lifetime Income.
Social Security benefits are a major source of income for those over 65 according to the Social Security Administration Fact Sheet.
Social Security Fact Sheet
- In 2025, an average of almost 69 million Americans per month will receive a Social Security benefit, totaling about $1.6 trillion in benefits paid during the year.
- Nearly nine out of ten people age 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of December 31, 2024.
- Social Security benefits represent about 31% of the income of people over age 65.
- Among Social Security beneficiaries age 65 and older, 39% of men and 44% of women receive 50% or more of their income from Social Security.
- Among Social Security beneficiaries age 65 and older, 12% of men and 15% of women rely on Social Security for 90% or more of their income.
- In 1940, the life expectancy of a 65-year-old was almost 14 years; today, it is over 20 years.
- The number of Americans 65 and older will increase from about 61 million in 2023 to about 77 million by 2035.
- In 2023, there were an estimated 2.7 covered workers per each Social Security beneficiary. By 2035, the Trustees estimate there will be 2.4 covered workers for each beneficiary.
US Population 2010 vs 2024
Sobering Stats
The population aged 65+ is 61,930,595. 90 percent of them collect Social Security.
There are another 21,691,564 aged 60-64 of which 90 percent will start collecting Social Security in the next 5 years, offset by deaths.
The SSA estimates a rise in beneficiaries from 69 million to 77 million by 2035.
Social Security and Medicare Financing Issues
The Social Security Status Report for 2025 projects when full benefits will run out.
Note: The dates below do not factor in the One Big Beautiful Bill that just passed.
- The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund [Part of Social Security] will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.
- The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund [Part of Social Security] is projected to be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2099, the last year of this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of that report’s projection period.
- If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits. (The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.)
- Although the OASI Trust Fund depletion year remains the same, both the OASI and OASDI depletion dates advanced by about 3 calendar quarters, relative to last year’s projection.
- The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund [Medicare Part A] will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, three years earlier than reported last year. At that point, that fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 89 percent of total scheduled benefits.
OBBBA Would Accelerate Social Security & Medicare Insolvency
The Committee for a Responsible Budget reports OBBBA Would Accelerate Social Security & Medicare Insolvency
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees estimated in their 2025 annual reports on the programs that the retirement and hospital trust funds will become insolvent in 2033 – only eight years from today. We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would accelerate Social Security and Medicare insolvency by a year, to 2032. That’s when today’s 60-year-olds reach the full retirement age and when today’s youngest retirees turn 69.
The reconciliation Byrd rule does not allow changes to Social Security spending or payroll tax, and Congress rejected efforts to make large changes to Medicare and cut waste.
However, OBBBA would impact Social Security and Medicare indirectly, mainly by reducing the revenue collected from the income taxation of Social Security benefits, which is deposited into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
OBBBA would not only extend most of the 2017 tax cuts but also expand them and add further tax cuts on top of them. Of particular relevance for Social Security beneficiaries, the Senate version of OBBBA would increase the total standard deduction for many senior couples by over $13,000 (including a temporary $12,000 increase in the additional senior deduction) in 2026, to over $47,000. This would reduce the number of seniors paying taxes on their benefits and reduce the marginal rate at which some of their benefits were taxed.
We estimate that the extension and expansion of the 2017 tax cuts, the expanded senior deduction, and other OBBBA changes would reduce total taxation of benefits by roughly $30 billion per year. This would be enough to accelerate insolvency of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors (OASI) trust fund from early 2033 to late 2032 and to accelerate insolvency of the HI trust fund from late 2033 to mid-2032.
Upon insolvency in 2032, we estimate that Social Security beneficiaries would face an across-the-board benefit cut of around 24 percent – even deeper than the cuts scheduled under current law. HI payments, meanwhile, would be cut by 11 percent.
Promises Promises
Both Trump and Biden pledged to not touch Social Security. If you don’t touch it, there will be automatic cuts by 2032.
They have also pledged not to cut benefits, which is a different animal.
Neither president did anything in their terms to shore up solvency of the funds. In fact, Trump sped up the demise by about 9 months.
Of course. the entire idea of a trust fund is ludicrous because 100 percent of the trust fund has been borrowed and spent.
This will get resolved in the usual way, bigger deficits while doing nothing about the issues.
Lasting Until 2032 is Optimistic
Nobody has factored in recession and the accompanying reduction in FICA tax collection.
Insolvency in 5 years would not at all be surprising.
None of this is new. We have understood these demographics for many decades. But there was no incentive for either party to do anything but pledge to “not touch” the insolvent system.
Trump just made matters a bit worse. Its massive deficits as far as the eye can see by both parties.
Finally, please note military spending is not even in the the One Big Beautiful Bill. Huge quantities of additional red ink are on the way.
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Meanwhile, please consider Gold Soars to Another New High, What’s the Message?
The GOP (Government of Plutocrats), has wanted to destroy Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc., since their respective inception. They actively campaigned against it and have incrementally since the 80s been on a mission to destroy it. The aforementioned social safety net programs were implemented to alleviate poverty and improve health for the poor, disabled and the elderly with remarkable success.
The solutions for solvency have been discussed ad nauseam. The last solution codified was under Ronnie Raygun that essentially began the inexorable decline of middle class through regressive taxes on working and middle classes.
Professional actuarials have testified before Congress and commissions have been held with solutions. The economic elites don’t want them implemented. Period.
They would rather have poverty, homelessness, disease, a winnowing of the middle class, a capitalist – serf class system.
Anyone that argues differently has a bias of neoliberalism and/or neoconservatism – the two ideologies that will soon bankrupt the US.
“Never let a crisis go to waste.”
Was reading that project to drop bunker buster bombs on Fordow, began 15 years ago. What is the government’s existing playbook on handling the entitlement crisis, when it comes?
If Social Security were truly a Trust, then those responsible for administering the trust – the trustees – can be sued personally for failing to save the trust. As I understand it, there are people receiving payment from the trust that do not meet the requirement of the trust. The prime fiduciary responsibility of a trustee, other than following the trust documents, is to “save the trust”, meaning do what is necessary, including reducing benefits, to ensure the trust continues.
As for living longer, actuarial tables are based on birth dates and death dates, not the causes of death. So, while in the 1920s, measles caused pneumonia had a death rate of 25%, by 1940 it was under 10%. There was also a World War and pandemic that would have lowered the average age of death. The 1979 tables that were commonly used, saw the US figures affected by WWII, the Korean War, and Vietnam, which lowered life expectancy. In modern times, children with Cystic Fibrosis now live into their 40s, whereas 40 years ago, they were lucky to live long enough to graduate high school. There are other diseases with similar progress. These unfortunate people, while living much, much longer, will never live long enough to receive Social Security, but they do raise the “life expectancy” tables.
Social Security is in trouble because it has, over the last 50+ years, not been run as originally laid out in its founding trust documents. All is going according to plan.
Getting double-vaxxed and triple-boasted AGAIN for the Razor Blade Deep Throat Covid will help save social security and medicare.
… and Nethanyahu smiled.
I didn’t see any posts by Mish congratulating Trump for ending the Iran war. He just moves on to bashing and pontificating more doom and gloom and n social security.
TACO didn’t end the war against Iran. TACO embroiled the US in the war against Iran to spare Israel from all the pounding after Tel Aviv looked like the Gaza Strip.
No way is that mess over with. Just giving the missile manufacturers time to restock Israel.
The immigrants will solve the problem like they have (NOT) in Europe. Brown people will gladly work at low wages and be taxed to support old Whites in retirement who they have been told are racist xenophobes responsible for all their problems.
Not to mention, it would only “solve” something if they’re never allowed to get anything out of the system.
The gov encourages people to work until age 70Y in order to collect higher SS, while paying SS taxes. Life expectancy for male is 77. Those who retire at 70 are losing 8 years of SS, though at lower rates. The optimal retirement age is 65. U can retire at 65, collect SS and work.
If SS goes bust the Fed will print $2.5 trillions and move them O/N in wheelbarrows as they did in Oct 2008 and in March 2020. The Fed can print as much as they want. The Fed are morons, idiots, scoundrels.
No worries.
People are going to wake up one morning and recognize that everything has changed and that wake-up call could be as soon as 5-10 years from now.
Inexorably, an ever increasing number of human jobs are going to be eliminated and replaced by automation/AI/robots.
No matter what anyone says, the old worldwide economic model of more people working at more jobs and paying more taxes is on the death bed.
This transition is going result in massive unemployment and deflation initially but eventually, a single AI “Overlord” will control the world, national borders and governments will have been eliminated, robots will do almost all work and everything will be provided for free.
One major question is with nothing to occupy the days and simple minds of most people, do they serve any purpose by being allowed to remain alive?
Will humans be able to do anything better than a sentient machine?
Have you been sampling Rutte’s magic mushrooms?
Whatcha smokin’?
People get into arguments about whether machines will ever be sentient. Like it matters. If it functions like it’s sentient, do we have to care whether it’s self-aware? One aspect of AI that may be self-limiting (for now) is that as it “learns” from AI-generated inputs, it creates its own form of distortion. If it starts off as 99% accurate, with each pass of machine learning it becomes further away (and noticeably so) from the reality it tries to emulate. Or so I’ve read.
Hallucinating bots……yes, people need to monitor those inputs.
Being sentient, couldn’t the machine adjust for any changes?
Nope. When the gime comes, they will print their way out of this. We will get a lot of inflation, and annual social security COLAs will be a fixed fraction of actual inflation. *Everyone* knows that CPI inflation as reported by the government is severely and laughably lowballed.
Yup Boomers screwing over gen x again.
Better start taxing ai and robots in the work force as people.
Maybe look at congresses life time health care and retirement to boot. You want it fixed put them in the same position as everyone else.
Also consider global warming will lower average lifespan of poorer and unhealthy people. Less government health care may do the same.
How is getting our money back “screwing over gen x”? It will have been a horrible investment for us … and now you’re saying if we don’t take a total loss we’re being horrible people? Seriously?
Who said Boomers should take a “total loss”? But basic statistics show the Boomers will definitely have a better SS situation than Gen X and later generations.
SS insolvency (that Mish is posting about) will impact only some Boomers but all Gen X and later generations. So by definition, Boomers paid in less than they will receive or the SS system would not be insolvent soon.
As one example, Boomers paid less into SS percentage-wise from their wages than Gen X and later generations do and will. The current highest-percentage SS wage rate started in 1990; all previous tax rates -including when Boomers were working – were lower.
The increase was notable, but most boomers worked well over half their careers at higher wages than X (just from a seniority perspective) and, except for those who live quite long, will barely get back what they put in. When you figure it was taken from already taxed money and will be taxed again when it comes back … it’s not boomers getting some part of their money back that is bankrupting the system … there are many factors that are (ie: SSDI and other points where welfare was injected into what was a savings system). Many folks who did not pay in are getting out of it. Some as a reasonable entitlement … but the entitlement should not be coming from SS. Still not seeing how, with as much as I put in (again after-tax money) and what I will get out … I assure you I’m not bankrupting SS.
Sorry, Mike, I realize this info may suck. Most of us don’t want to learn the truth (much less do the research ourselves) to find out we’re the taker in the system. But the average Boomer will be a taker – in terms of SS. And researchers have known this for awhile: https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2023-12/social_security_medicare_tpc.pdf
Lots of info in that report, but to summarize, the biggest SS takers (meaning they will get back progressively more in NPV than they put in over their lifetimes) are those that are white, female, have worked less than 35 years before retiring, earn less while working, and/or have a spouse that did not work or earned little.
But the report clearly shows the average Boomer will get back more in PV than what they paid in – the opposite of what you keep posting.
But at your age (64), at least you have the opportunity to actually get SS payments so at least you’re not one of the unlucky ones that paid into this insurance system for decades and then died at 61 – the year before they could claim “I’m old enough to claim an insurance check”
So you don’t think SSDI et al are influential in why it’s going broke? I paid the maximum for most of my 35 years and won’t collect until age 70 … so who knows what I will get. I WILL be taxed on it twice and I doubt that is factored in.
I just look at the statistics, Mike, without trying to make personal judgments.
According to what Mish linked to above (did you read it?), SSDI is supposed to be able to pay out 100% of promised benefits to at least 2099. So no, I – and the official SS agency – do not think SSDI is why SS is ‘going broke’.
You will have to blame someone else – again
So the folks who did not put anything in but are getting out for years or decades are not the problem, but the folks who put in for 40 years and get out for 20 years are the issue? Seems counter-intuitive … but I guess I’ll just trust your wisdom on that.
I don’t think you should trust anyone, Mike, except for you and your own good research.
But you can easily Google this info before you post inaccurate statements. SSDI is available to those who have worked and paid into the SS system previously so they are not “folks who did not put anything in”: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/disability/qualify.html
That would make sense except I know one illegal alien (good man) getting SSDI. Maybe the “disability” that is a right of passage into adulthood in some neighborhoods (ie: when you’re 18, you go to the fraud doctors who will declare you disabled so you can live your adult life on disability) is not SSDI and it is another entitlement. My room-mate in college had his Dad pass away when he was young. He was on SSDI (and possibly another disability program) that paid all through his youth and put him through college. Dad had paid into SS for < 10 years.
And I also don’t get at all your obsession with being taxed twice on SS.
That is the case for everyone. And also the case for everyone else that works, is taxed on their initial income, and then gets income from other sources later. Like bond interest, stock dividends, home appreciation, capital investment, etc.
You’re not being punished/taxed any more or differently than anyone else. And we have to have government tax revenue to pay for all the government goodies that everyone wants, like your SS checks
“Who were Reagan, Tip and Rostenkowski”, Alex?
You cannot eat your cake and have it too, Mike!
What you call “our money” is actually money already spent, by politicians you chose (unless you’ve been voting 3rd party – then I’ll take back my words). Pretty unfair to ask 20-something year olds to cough up that money for you.
According to Al Gore, AOC and Greta, we’re all supposed to be dead by now.
Social Security will not “go bust”, it’ll be revised (again and again).
Mathematically this is straightforward; the challenge is finding the political will.
Many people will have to accept a standard of living lower than they were expecting.
I see a lot of good options in the other comments, but basically either the elderly will receive less Social Security income, or those working will pay more in taxes.
“Less income” could mean raising the eligibility age, reducing the benefits, taxing the benefit more, or further eroding the value of the benefits through real-world inflation greater than the COLAs. Could also require more work credits before reaching full benefit level. A further crackdown down on fraud might also help.
“Pay more” could mean a higher FICA tax rate, or raising the income level beyond which the FICA tax stops being charged. I suppose other, non-FICA tax revenue might be tapped too.
In the long run, increased legal immigration and policies that promote the raising of children would also help to sustain the taxpayer base of support. Unlike many other nations, the ecological carrying capacity of the United States is considerably higher than the current population.
While I’m about to turn 64 … it is an interesting time. I’m blessed in that I don’t need to take until 70 … but it is odd that if we get what we paid in, we’re painted as evil. That said, it was originally designd as a far more comprehensive ponzi scheme than it is now (ie: 65 was the exception, not the norm). I agree that, if we are going to be fiscally responsible … we should increase all the ages by 3 years and that would make a big difference (62 -> 65, 66.5 -> 69.5, 70 -> 73). That said, I don’t see any others being fiscally responsible … so it would be interesting to place all the fiscal responsibility on those who are just trying to get some of their money back (and getting taxed on it AGAIN).
Isn’t the non-existent social security trust fund (actually an accounting entry) “technically” broke already? Aren’t today’s payments being paid for with additional debt issuance?
No, SS is not ‘broke’ already, even though SS outlays have exceeded payments into the system generally since 2021 and the Trust Fund has lost reserves correspondingly. Mish is referring to when those reserves will disappear completely.
But each month, I work and pay into SS and my parents and other SS recipients get their monthly checks. Since I and other workers don’t currently pay in enough for the checks going out, the SS administration gets the remainder of the outlay funds from maturing securities that were invested in years ago when the payments exceeded outlays.
Only the US Treasury issues new debt (not the SS administration) when Congress routinely deficit spends in the present.
Just remove the cap on taxable FICA income and the problem mostly goes away. Why would anyone be against that?
More than half of them will retire penniless and toothless after struggling through decades of inflation. Some benefit cuts for the higher paid recips should be anti inflationary. The amount of gouging and theft in the med/pharma/housing systems is still the greatest expense.
Push millions of people to the brink, you’re gonna get more Luigis…
So those who have paid the most and ALREADY paid taxes on what came out … should get the least and pay the most taxes on it … AGAIN.
I-N-S-O-L-V-E-N-C-Y
When did that ever stop Trump?
Two key phrases in this analysis:
None of this is new.Offset by deathsSo we have the cause, and the resolution.
Perhaps we can help things along with a selective service draft for seniors, to man the trenches in the Ukraine (they already do).
Kill two birds with one stone, so to speak.
The US cannot become insolvent, all that can happen is monetary debasement (more than usual).
So tired of the social security trope. They’ll just increase taxes or borrow to pay for it. Let it go…
One fix for medicare would be single payer healthcare and please spare me the socialist bs backlash. We have double the developed world average cost per capita and the worst health ranking. Assuming we stay in the worst health ranking we would at least cut costs in half. The insurance industry is basically legalized extortion, it basically screws the healthcare providers while enriching their shareholders and our political class. The current system is FUBB. There would be more incoming money to the ss/medicare system at least giving it a partial fix. Why a national debate on this topic never occurs is beyond me. Oh wait I almost forgot who lines the pockets of our politicians and pays big advertising revenue to the corrupt networks.
I’d also point out that in most of the country there is one hospital, you are going there. There is no competition so the free market can not work.
Yet millions of joint replacements are done annually and can be done cheaper and better by traveling less than 200 miles.
The only good socialism is the machine created in 1913 that creates money out of thin air for every loan created by banks, which then reap interest on them.
The magic money machine for the banksters.
Simply enforce anti trust laws already on the books.
If one understands that the first receivers of SS paid nothing into it; then it follows that it is a not a personal retirement account but a paying it to those who labored before us.
I think Boomers get all tied in a knot because they have left a much less vibrant nation and economy than their parents left them.
Those who are working now pay for the current SS recipients retirement. That is a scary thing considering 61 years of malinvest since Kennedy got Palestinianed.
Don’ think of your SS payments out of your paycheck as your stupid little 401K account, but think of it as helping those who have already worked hard and need a break.
Raising or eleminating the SS tax exemption for incomes above a certain amount would be a good starting point.
Nice synopsis of SS reality, but good luck getting people to view it that way. If SS was personal 401k savings, you’d have an account with a specific dollar amount and your name on it. But those don’t exist and never did.
But most Americans don’t see it that way. Basically the same as the elderly wanting cheap medical care for their aged bodies from Medicare, military personnel wanting future pension and VA healthcare benefits no matter what the cost to taxpayers, farmers wanting guaranteed crop insurance or prices, beachfront and tornado zone owners demanding government insurance or rebuilding funds, drivers upset over congestion on federal interstates after they pay a gas tax, etc.
We’re not guaranteed anything specific by our government in the future; everything can be changed by political vote or economic reality
Outstanding report, Mish!!!
We’ll be extremely lucky if the insolvency date doesn’t move forward toward 2030 over the next 5 years.
We can say this much for sure. The president elect in 2028 will have to get serious about all sorts of budgetary issues. It will be a daunting term for sure.
I read a report yesterday that suggests the FRA will increase to 68 for those born in 1970 & after & then 69 & 70 for those born in 1980 or after. Seems about right, since the move to 67 was 1960.
Isn’t it great how the doctors (Part B) get paid out the general tax revenues & aren’t subject to a trust fund?
So, we’ve got a little over 70K 100+ year-olds in the US. Nice & congrats!
SS holds more than $2.5T in UST. SS assets cannot be traded in the free market. Until recently SS tax collection were higher than distribution. Lately more output than input.
“SS holds more than $2.5T in UST.”
SS doesn’t “hold” anything.
There is no lock box. The money is spent.
SS Has $2.5T UST. It’s untouchable. Lately output is larger than in put. If SS goes bust the Fed will raid bank accounts to save poor elderly. Retired people with high income will not get SS.
The Fed has nothing to do with SS. So it won’t be raiding private bank accounts for SS deficits.
Also SS CAN’T GO BUST (reach 0). It’s impossible since it’s a pay as you go system (money collected from workers paychecks goes directly to retirees).
All that can happen if nothing is done by the government is that not enough money will be collected to pay 100% of benefits. At that point if only say 95% is collected then retirees will simply get 95% of the money each month.
For decades SS input was higher than output. With that money they bought treasuries. Lately output is higher than input. SS assets might taper, before rising to new highs.
No they won’t get 95%, Congress will simply pass a “spending” bill to make up the difference. And they’ll do it again every year, even with the percentages increasing each year. eventually they’ll make some tiny cut to appease the young people watching in horror as their currency is debased more rapidly than usual to make sure that their absolutely LOADED grandma is made whole.
Don’t the value of those Treasuries in the “trust fund” fall if they have to be sold if interest rates have risen? Is this factored in to projected benefit cuts?
They don’t hold regular treasuries that can be ‘sold’ even when they are redeemed. They also don’t rise/fall in value with the markets or anything else. They simply generate a set amount of interest each year.
Do you hold any personal money (checking/savings) in a local or regional bank?
Because every time I ask my own bank cashier if I can see the gold or reserves in the vault, they tell me there is no such thing. But my bank keeps giving me cash from my account when I want it, loans when I need them, and sends me profit dividends every quarter for the bank shares I own.
Idiots, don’t joke with Trump. Tariffs on S.Korea and Japan will rise to 25% on Aug 1st.
Daddy can stick up for himself.
Social Securiy is backed by Treasury bonds in the amount of several trillion dollars. Correct me if I am wrong. If things go bad these bonds will have to be sold to raise cash. All this is going to happen in environment where marketable federal government debt stands at over 100% (maybe 120%). Would FED buy them under new round of QE? It will be difficult to tax US consumers again and double import tariffs just like Trump is doing right now. On positive note, I remember first reading about this problem at 2012 or so. 13 years have passed since then.
Yes, the SSTF is required by law to be invested in non-marketable treasuries, meaning they will never be sold & will be held to maturity. The borrowing against the SSTF is called intra-governmental debt. They key point about the intra-governmental debt is that, when it matures, it’s ALWAYS paid for using public debt, which means it matters in terms of our debt to GDP ratio.
Since they can’t be sold, the price really doesn’t matter. What matters is the yield they pay. If the yield crashes (not likely), then the SSTF will receive less revenue, meaning it will go bust a little sooner. The more likely scenario over the next 8 years is that yields are going to rise, so any new treasuries will create more revenue for the SSTF, extending its solvency a bit.
However, since it’s on a short path to insolvency, I don’t think we need to be worried about what ifs. The real what ifs here are WHEN Congress act & WHAT do they do?
My bad. I need to correct a couple of things.
SSTF treasuries are considered special issue, pay a specific interest and are redeemable prior to maturity at full par value.
So they appear to be mostly immune to the market forces that affect the open marketable treasuries market.
If interest rates have risen, how is difference made up? The bonds themselves may be mostly immune to market forces but maintaining par value could need cash from the general budget.
I just know that pay a specific yield / coupon like all bonds do for the full maturity, which is no different from any bond, However, these special issue treasuries, since they are not marketable, most likely don’t lose or gain value. If treasuries start going up in yield, my guess is the that administrators of SSTF can redeem lower paying treasuries & purchase newer, higher paying treasuries.
More info here:
Special-issue securities, Social Security trust funds
I just know they are not marketable (sellable), pay a fixed coupon like normal and can be redeemed for full par value prior to maturity. That’s VERY different than the treasuries you and I can buy which can gain or lose value.
When modified adjusted income rises, or your assets rises u will not be entitled to SNAP, Medicare part B and D.
Are any of you aware of Malthus(ian) Philosophies?
Mathusians believe that the Growth in the WORLD’s Populations is EXPONENTIAL and the growth in FOOD production is LINEAR.
Think about THAT when you consider the Mrna vaccines program. THINK!
Actually, that hasn’t worked out, population is out of control. Food supply increased because of artificial food now eaten by big fat American. Artificial food is tasty and deadly. I grew up eating the real stuff and strive to pay more for nutritious food. Travel to Europe to see what real food tastes like.
Malthus failed. There are 8 billions in the world thanks to Fritz Haber. Haber/Bosch industrial nitrogen production is essential for growing food. Fritz Haber worked in a lab that produced chemical gases and Zyklon B which killed Jews. He escaped Nazi Germany and tried to work in England, but was denied. He he got a heart attack in Palestine. His family was exterminated with Zyklon B.
That was during a time when White men discovered more arable land in North and South America and Australia and led the scientific and technological revolution. They are now a small and rapidly decreasing percentage of the global population and restrained even in their own nations. Who is going to pick up the torch? Africans? They’re still searching in vain for an African Einstein. The Chinese have their own demographic problems and would they share their discoveries (at least the ones not stolen) with the rest of the world?
Question:
“However, OBBBA would impact Social Security and Medicare indirectly, mainly by reducing the revenue collected from the income taxation of Social Security benefits, which is deposited into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.”
How do they figure out what portion of taxes came from taxation of SS benefits? Take 1040 line 6b times whatever your marginal rate works out to at the bottom?
Soylent green is always an option
They won’t touch benefits but they’ll find new ways to tap into savings, like changing RMD age from 72 to 62. Classic bait and switch.
With the gutting of Medicare and Medicaid, I suspect life expectancy will plummet. The problem may solve itself.
that is an over reaction. And there are illegals getting Supplemental Social Income(SSI which is federal welfare program and NOT Social Security) and getting medicaid . Why should they be allowed to collapse and already fragile system
Make the wage cap 500,000 tomorrow. Do not let people be able to claim early until 65(not 62, although at 62 you lose 30%) and oh BTW, create jobs so more people are actually paying into SS
And maybe its time to put SS trust funds partially in the an index fund while partially getting guaranteed bond rate?
Illegals arent getting anything they arent entitled to under law. Youre watching too much fox news.
Migrants that declare themselves refugees get SSI. Go look it up. And know I do not watch Fox news, have not in over 30 years
This is the problem with you left leaning liberals in your echo chamber, anytime someone says something you do not like or agree with, you are either a fox news watcher or a Nazi……You are part of the problem in this country. Refugess get SSI. Go look it up and come back and correct me is I am wrong. And it I am right, admit you are wrong.
Whether its right or wrong that they get it is another issue, but do not lie about it. You get your news from MSNBC and CNN??
You probably are not aware, even though you know everything but SSI is NOT social security. So I did NOT say they are getting social security
Then change the law. I still believe it is only the citizens and permanent residents that get all those juicy government benefits. The illegals get 90% of the food they need, a undependable housing situation, and the rest of the time is spent on Clark Street in Chicago begging for 10s (and yes, they are back!).
Agreed, they should change the law.
Am I suppose to feel more sorry for them? I feel sorry for the poor Americans, black white jewish gentile hispanic whatever that have been here a long time and need the help just as much. Shouldn’t they go ahead of the illegals? Just not enough to go around so enforce the dam borderand at least send the criminal illegals packing
Those are probably gypsies on Clark Street. They roll into town for a few weeks and then move along to a new city. They bring their infants along to beg with them.
So they roll in with their wagons? 🙂 Romania is a long way from Chicago. Im guessing Venezuelans who only walked a measly 2500 miles to get here. No swimming needed.
SS already gets a guaranteed rate of return since it’s a special government bond (can’t be traded).
SSI has been available to certain non-citizens (not all by any means) since 1996
https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-non-citizens.htm
And since SSI is not funded by Social Security, I think you’re both off-topic for this particular blogpost and incorrect about such non-citizens “collapsing an already fragile system”
ok. But my point is there is not enough money to go around , so why the hell do people that came here illegally go ahead of our poor Americans?
Again, I’m not sure where you are getting your info…
Poor Americans get SNAP, SSI, WIC, EITC, refundable child tax credits, no federal taxation, etc. So I don’t know why you think others are “getting ahead of poor Americans”?
And those non-citizens getting SSI are not “here illegally”. They are legally legitimate refugees and asylum-seekers and have had access to SSI funds since the Republican-controlled Congress in 1996 – per the link I provided above. Truly illegal aliens are not receiving SSI
You are making a great point.
Didnt we think that with the million Covid deaths? 🙂
After covidcon and the death assisted ICU protocols, some people are less likely to choose US ‘healthcare’ for their ailments.
“woocoodanoode?”
IMF: China’s buybacks. Their population might drop from 1.4 billions to 700/800 millions. If their GDP PPP ($43T) stalls, China per capita will dbl.
The US population will grow to 400/420 millions. Higher wages and more young people in their prime age will keep SS alive and growing, when the boomer era will be over. If US GDP stalls our per capita will be higher than China, higher than the EU, India and higher than the Gulf states. We will still be #1 Superstate.
Quote from SSA: The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced changes to the full retirement age (FRA), which is now set at 67 for those born in 1960 or later.
As of this year, those turning 65 can’t claim full benefits. This whole analysis is flawed.
The age groupings in the charts and statements such as:
“By 2035, the Social Security Administration estimates there will be 77 million people age 65 and older”; and “More than 11,200 Americans will turn 65 every day — or over 4.1 million every year — from 2024 through 2027” are meaningless in today’s retirement age of 67.
It would help if you could read.
Please stat with the admission that money runs out in 2032 or 2032
Not a single person disputes that.
Learn to read
No better case for implementing the new paradigm of Monetary Gifting with a 50% Discount/Rebate policy at retail sale can be made because it doubles the purchasing power of one’s social security payment, and with a universal dividend of say $1000/mo. at age 18 for life will not only increase individual purchasing power more, but enable us to eliminate the payroll taxes for welfare and unemployment insurance.
Eventually libertarian “thinking” will have to face the fact that its just an ideology to insure the rule of every other economic agent by making the world safe for the monopoly paradigm of private finance.
4.1 million babies were born each in 1957, 58 and 59 — the peak of the baby boom. Yeah, we all could see this coming if we wanted to see it, but most people today dont want to deal with anything bad or negative. I have friends in their 30s and 40s who are gonna be at my doorstep when they turn 70 with no money asking for help. Other than blaming the usual people: tax-avoiding billionaires and those who sold their business to China and left the US workers with flat wages for 50 years (pay has not gone above inflation for decades), Im not sure if there is anyone left to blame for this. All the more reason to not let one young family return to their country of origin 🙂 — we NEED those babies, no matter how brown they are.
We don’t need babies. Those are 18 years away from being productive and that’s WAY too far in the future to help a problem that’s here now and will peak in 5-7 years.
What we should not let go is any young able body adult (16-40) who is working and in fact we should be scouring other countries trying to entice their population that fits that age to come here.
I half agree with you. But believe it or not youre gonna die, Im gonna die, and there is a future beyond just us. Planning for the next 20 years doesnt hurt that much. Give it a try! 😉
Care… about OTHER people? What a ridiculous idea!
We’re all gonna die for sure.
But what if we can’t take care of the babies AND the old due to lack of working age people. What’s the solution then in your mind? Is it the old or the young that has to go?
Almost 40% of working age adults aren’t working, get them involved. Of course, robots and temp visas increase needed service providers as well We don’t need babies for sure. Demographers probably don’t drive cars so they never see what I do. Traffic jams, high costs, floods, climate change and a declining standard of living are related to too many people.
that is amazing,40%? I would like to see the % pre Covid, then after Bidens last 4 years, assuming those illegals can be counted
You should check where you’re getting your statistics. Your 40% number probably includes everyone over the age of 70 and who really expects them to work?
The true percentage is less than 29% and that includes early retirees and people in college, maternity leave, etc.
https://odphp.health.gov/healthypeople/objectives-and-data/browse-objectives/economic-stability/increase-employment-working-age-people-sdoh-02/infographic
Correct. We’ve lost the ability to turn babies into productive citizens.
Add upcoming forced retirements due to AI. ‘Universal Basic Income’ here we come! Our gov’t can print to the moon.
Only banks and bankers can get Universal Basic Income from interest in deposits with the Fed from money deposited by the Fed, plus the bonus of collecting the interest when the Fed’s money is lent out. As for the plebes, let them eat cake while reading Mish’s blog!
We literally print money for everything else, Social Security is no different
alan greenspan
With a 50% reduction of price at retail sale you CAN double purchasing power. Look at that potential reality.
Why there’s an unexpected surge in people claiming Social Security
https://web.archive.org/web/20250506220059/https://www.ssa.gov/news/assets/materials/wor/2025-04-25.pdf
Usually happens when people hit 62, they have no pensions, they didnt invest in the stock market enough, they spent their money on cigarettes and booze, and they are desperate — usually about the time “recession” starts to waft in the air …
how much tax revenue is waiting to be realized in traditional retirement accounts? has anyone looked at trying to use some of that revenue to support the shortfall?
Of all the taxes I paid during my working life the only on i didn’t resent was FICA both as emplyee and employer. When we chose to go to 401Ks SS became critically necessary for more than 70% of our citizens. Raise FICA enough to balance SS.
There are solutions that have been out there for a long time. The easiest one is lifting the cap on high income earners so they pay in more.
Eventually every Ponzi scheme collapses when there are fewer and fewer putting money in and more and more folks wanting to take money out. Every time without fail.
America has 535 responsible leaders, plus those lurking in the Executive branch.
Who knew?
There are easy solutions to the SS funding problem. The rich just dont want to pay more.
There aren’t enough rich people to fund 10s of millions more retirees. Unless you consider someone making 80K a year rich.
The other easy solution is the elderly accepting less, especially in the area of medical care.
Payouts for SS are not extravagant. Wouldnt cost that much. Lets try it anyway.
There certainly *are* enough so that increasing their tax rates would be a big part of any solution.
What’s your definition of rich? More importantly, the VERY rich don’t get most of their money from salary. It’s from asset price increase (stocks/bonds/business/real estate) which don’t get taxed till sold AND even then don’t pay SS tax on that.
If you want to get it from wages you are talking about increasing taxes on people making 80, 100, 120K a year.
Look at Mish’s chart. There are 39 million more people age 65+. They don’t all get SS of course (gov’t workers and others get pensions or they don’t qualify) but if half of those people do that’s 20 million more collecting and if they collect 1000 a month that’s 20 billion more a month needed or 240 billion more a year. That’s a LOT of money needed from wages and you can’t get 240 billion a year from the very rich because all their net worth combined barely equals 1 year of 240 billion.
Persons making more than $176,000 annually can pay more. Removing the cap would be a big start on a solution.
Will AI be paying FICA? Sounds silly, but if AI is indeed a productivity boost as well as labor cost savings, this should ramp up corporate profits, so should FICA payments be increased into this curve? Good idea until AI goes the Soylent Green way.