The Real-Time Poverty Estimates During the COVID-19 Pandemic
through November 2020 rose to 11.7% in November.
Key Details
- The poverty rate fell by 1.5 percentage points from 10.9 percent in the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic (January and February) to 9.4 percent in the three months at the start of the pandemic (April, May, and June).
- Poverty rose by 2.4 percentage points from 9.3 percent in June to 11.7 percent in November, adding 7.8 million to the ranks of the poor.
- Poverty has risen each month since June, even though the unemployment rate has fallen by 40 percent (from 11.1 percent to 6.7 percent) over this period. Despite the decline early in the pandemic, poverty is now higher than it was at the start of the year.
- The entire decline in poverty through June can be accounted for by the one-time stimulus checks the federal government issued, predominantly in April and May, and the expansion of unemployment insurance eligibility and benefits. In absence of these programs, poverty would have risen sharply.
- The increase in poverty in recent months was more noticeable for blacks, children, and those
with a high school education or less. For blacks, poverty has risen by 3.1 percentage points since June. - Poverty has also risen noticeably for those with a high school education or less, from 17.0 percent in June to 22.1 percent in November.
Poverty Rate Trend
The Census Department sets the official Poverty Rate.
The number is very stale. The report was released on September 15, and the rate is as of the end of 2019.
- The official poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from 11.8 percent in 2018. This is the fifth consecutive annual decline in poverty. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 4.3 percentage points, from 14.8 percent to 10.5 percent.
- The 2019 poverty rate of 10.5 percent is the lowest rate observed since estimates were initially published in 1959.
- In 2019, there were 34.0 million people in poverty, approximately 4.2 million fewer people than 2018.
According to the Real-Time Poverty Model, the poverty rate will rise in 2020. It will be the first rise since 2014.
I expect things will get much worse in December as Unemployment Claims Are On the Rise Again.
Depending on the the Covid stimulus package, things may improve again next year,
But I doubt that in any meaningful way because the Most Evictions in History Will Start in January as Ban Expires.
Mish
Forced by Liberals and Democrats. What side is Fauci on? What is his agenda?
Looks like it was 1959 not 1989. I’m old enough (65) remember if you didn’t work you didn’t eat. Looks like welfare was successful in bringing (significantly) the poverty rate, but at what cost. I guess you have to take into account population differences in terms of the number of people in poverty. I think Reagan had it right by requiring work. Looks like poverty rate is a fluctuation compared to 1959. Funny we won the war but why was there all this poverty? Probably the robber barons then (I guess Du Ponts, Rockefellers, etc) were worse than the Bezoses, Gates, Musks of today
The change in poverty rate so far is a bump in the road. I’m not sure about how that chart is derived, exactly …..because if you look at longer term charts you don’t see that 22% high back in 1989. Not sure what’s going on with that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Number_in_Poverty_and_Poverty_Rate,_1959_to_2017.png
According to the long term poverty chart on Wiki, the poverty RATE is phenomenally steady…it cycles up and down in a sine wave between 10 and 15%….all the way back to 1965.
Poverty is a study in human misery, addiction, broken families and incarceration.
It’s certainly true that a good baseline level of a living wage for working stiffs makes poverty less of a political problem….but the idea that poverty is something that can be fixed by policy…..is mostly a pipe dream.
Even Jesus knew that, and said so.
To get out of poverty, by definition, means to acquire wealth. To acquire wealth requires understanding why and how to do that, and it takes good habits,
Which is why you could take some Auschwitz survivor who got out of WWII with nothing but an empty belly and the tattered clothes on his back…..and see him become wealthy in less than one generation.
And why you can take some kid whose GGG grandfather was a slave, put him in public school, feed him free breakfast and free lunch, and he won’t even be motivated to learn to read, his very best hope for any kind of future.
Instead, he will act like you incarcerated him, cop an attitude, pay little attention, and drop out at the earliest opportunity.. He will join a gang in order to belong to a tribe that accepts him, and stand a good chance of going to jail or getting shot.
The best thing anybody can do about poverty is to take steps to not be in it…you are ether part of the problem or part of the solution.
I wasn’t born in poverty, but my family wasn’t that high above the poverty line……I knew I didn’t want to be poor my whole life and I seriously studied how to change my circumstances…..too bad more poor kids can’t figure it out. Some do…..no matter what their ethnicity or how broke a family they’re born into.
When I see that, it makes me hopeful. But it’s a tiny minority of poor kids who can do that.
So we have a “poverty line” that remains remarkably flat-lined, for generations, in spite of all manner of well-intentioned initiatives.
Yes, Jesus said “The poor you will always have with you” but the entire Bible is full of commands for those who a better off to take care of the poor. Now whether individuals or government or both have that responsibility in a culture like ours is the question … but it’s pretty clear that without government, individuals could not do it alone (1) since the poor are increasing and (2) the middle class is decreasing (3) the elite just continue accumulating more and more for themselves (though some are philanthropic of course)… and the results are readily apparent.
I’d also argue that the overall job market is shifting to require more capability in job seekers and it’s not merely a matter of effort to acquire suitable skills, it’s also a matter of capability to do so and I don’t think that is shifting in the same direction if it’s shifting at all.
And it’s been discussed here numerous time what sending manufacturing jobs overseas has done … and what increased reliance on AI/Robotics is going to do for many segments of the job market sooner or later.
Finally, I would hypothesize that if the entire population of the US was 330 Eddie_T clones, there would be the same, or extremely similar, distribution of jobs and wealth among all of those identical persons as we have today. There is a certain structure to our economy and job market that just cannot be overcome by effort OR capability anymore.
So…you are making a common mistake.
Which is that you’re conflating earned income from a job directly related to one’s level of wealth.
This is only true at the very bottom of the heap.
This is an important concept to understand…and it’s why you see some people arrive in this country with absolutely nothing…and end up WAY better off than the average person, who tends to believe exactly what you just said…that it is one’s ability to pull down high pay that matters,
What matters is one’s ability to live below one’s means, to save, and to invest. I’d argue that it isn’t even terribly important what one invests in….although understanding market cycles and understanding potential pitfalls certainly makes a difference.
You have the outlook of a middle-class American….that society has an obligation to take care of those who cannot tank care of themselves. I actually agree with that, and for your information, I have spent my whole career taking care of people that generally get pretty short shrift. Scrooge I am not.
“Finally, I would hypothesize that if the entire population of the US was 330 Eddie_T clones, there would be the same, or extremely similar, distribution of jobs and wealth among all of those identical persons as we have today.”
That’s your bias talking, and it’s bullshit. It’s the world’s excuse for being mediocre. Good luck, and thanks for playing.
Let me correct one typo, because it’s the most important point in what I was saying.
“you’re conflating earned income from a job directly to being what’s responsible one’s level of wealth.”
Probably the most common mistake people make with regards to money and wealth. Period. All journalists are apparently taught this in liberal arts college.
Even my corrections have typos. “responsible for one’s level of wealth.”
I learned to type in my 50’s, sorry. You know what I meant, I hope.
beautifully put
Jesus did not say it was normal or part of the way things were that there be poverty. He knew saying this that he was not long for this world, because he took on the bankster scam and was dead within the weak. He sure did his bit to highlight and counter the scamming.
Poverty is always a social choice … it does not arise due to a lack of enough stuff. Saving in a fiat system is somewhat of a fool’s errand; everybody is disincentivized to save because the money melts away with time. Everybody is forced to borrow and speculate, reinforcing all kinds of unproductive activity and scamming.
And there’s an extra problem with global arbitrage. It’s always been true that the bottom 25% of the population are not geniuses or clever. But now the non-geniuses have to compete with people abroad where they have a completely different standard of living and where living expenses are a fraction of what they are in the West. What to do with those 25%? Dump them?
If you actually look at the numbers, you will see that those very people have come up the very most over the last generation. One of the real successes of our lifetime, largely due to technology….
It isn’t totally a zero sum game, acquiring wealth.
Every gift begins with having a surplus. So does every investment.
My advice is to learn how to create a surplus in your own life….and to invest it….and to gift it…according to your own inner compass..
But no surplus equals no chance to do either.
Filed under “how to get out of poverty via jobs from the Republican deal makers”…
Foxconn said they didn’t promise to build a factory, gave no committments on jobs or investments, but they still want their subsidy from the state of Wisconsin….
….Foxconn claimed it and WEDC had a “mutual understanding” that it would build something more vaguely defined [instead of a factory], “a transformational and sustainable high-tech manufacturing and technology ecosystem in Wisconsin that brings long-term investment and jobs.” However, Foxconn did express openness to amending its contract to allow for more flexibility in what it was building in exchange for lower subsidies.
I have said for decades that work has not led to upward mobility since Gerald Ford was president. There has been some upward mobility but it mostly has not come from work, and it is brittle, one error, one uncovered illness or accident, on global financial collapse, one pandemic, one totally random even and you are right back in the caca storm.
Tens of millions have survived 2020 on a combination of living in dire depravation even they they might have been solidly middle class in 2019 and before, and then only by use of credit cards, it is why we see data of unknown quality that says paying down credit card balances have shifted to highest priority among consumers, even though 7.7% of all mortgages are either not paid or are being paid in arrears. Why auto defaults are nearing records, why 11 million renters are facing eviction in less than two weeks time.
What do you think is happening to their FICO and Beacon and Vantage scores? I have not been late on any of my payments, I always pay at least double my minimum payment, and I actually have relatively little debt aside from my home loan, but I have seen my FICO score drop from 715 last Christmas to just 638 today. I am refinancing my house at 2.25% and just as the new closing date is the second of January I have a new offer to refi at 1.75%.
I cannot lose my job, I cannot be laid off or furloughed, yet my own fortunes are dependant upon a computer program that says because my credit card debt is rather high as a percent of my credit line (which is only $10k) I must be about to default and a poor credit risk, and since it is credit not cash that determines your “wealth” I am being severely impacted by an AI that knows or cares nothing about human life. Hey, I moved across country and bought a house, that was supposed to raise my credit score not drop it nearly 100 points.
So it seems to me that the arguments over what the causes and effects of relative poverty are specious when a private company’s computers are making automated decisions about the value of one’s personal reliability without giving any credit for the ethics and durability of persons in such circumstances as we now find ourselves in.
This I think has to speak directly to their view that all financial liability is absolute rather than relative, my score is determined by absolute numbers rather than my relative financial position in the economy. With an income that can neither go down nor end, and years of ideal repayment history, I should have among the best credit going right now on any scale. Instead my own score has been hit harder than even those who are near starving and facing homelessness. All because they have used 40% of their credit line where I am temporarily at 80% of mine, never mind that their credit line is unsupportable while I have kept mine to just what is needed and no more.
Because the proposition that one rises in social mobility by hard work, application of brains, good ethics, fastidious frugality, and even a certain amount of ass kissing is just flat out false. It is possible that all those things will bring you success, but not without an added dollop of luck. For those who would debate me on this I say before you have credibility to argue your point you first have to explain Donald Trump and for that matter any old inherited money.
And I agree with Centaro; I am 3 years younger but I remember when my mother of 4 worked 60 hours per week and we still lived in dire poverty and missed plenty of meals. Economics has been used as a bludgeon of control by the entitled (mostly privileged white straight males) to keep gays in the closet, females barefoot and pregnant, subservient, minorities thankful they are even allowed to live no less have any say in their lives, immigrants who do their menial work unseen and especially unheard, and union members with no doubt about what would be done to them if the shareholders ever got their way.
Hey, it is so important that those same white straight males of privilege even have their own political party, and for every one of them there are two with Stockholm syndrome because they think sucking up to the rich is how you enjoy social/financial mobility. Maybe they are right and the only thing that causes poverty is a streak of independence or rebelliousness. If so I guess I will die as poor as I lived because their life is what I define as hell.
Distribute Magic Markers to each household. With that they can add as many zeros as necessary on whatever Federal Reserve Note(s) they may have in order to survive or be rich, the choice is theirs. This will save on printing costs.
…just read in HLN, belgian news paper, that Biden will have 50% women and non whites in his cabinet… What a hypocritical, pathetic, jerky, convulsive socialist policy… hopefully some transgenders and LGB among them and even some pedophiles, why not, we are all creatures of gowd aren t we? Whether male, female, black, white or whatever modern society produces, the ONLY thing that really matters is COMPETENCE, not some, even more polarising, fckn positve discrimination !
I see you live a life where you automatically assume non-white and women are less competent than white males.
What outrages you most–that there are people who think a government of the people-by the people-for the people looks like the people, ot that there are competent women and non-whites, or that they are being hired in the Biden administration?
Good ol’ days eh–King Leopold and the rubber plantations?
You really are a filthy racists, sexist, homophobic liar. And just when we think you cannot go lower you manage to.
Poverty is a relative and ambiguous concept, but the decrease in a dollar’s purchasing power, combined with substantial increase in routine expenses that aren’t part of the CPI, would imply that the poverty threshold has been lowering over time (see changes in Table 1) –
At what multiple of the current poverty threshold would you consider someone to not be impoverished (or to put it another way, expected to be financially stable)? I suspect it would be a smaller multiple 20 or 30 years ago.
Just a cursory observation. It looks like the poverty rate increases under Democrats and falls under Republicans. Guess the Dems want their victims
The data Mish presented shows the poverty rate began to fall in 2014, which was under Obama a Democrat. It is now rising under Trump, a Republican. Primarily because the Republican Senate refused to pass the House’s (Democrats) stimulus bill.
When did Obama become president 2008? Lol
Yes, during the worst economy since the Great Depression.
Entire citys have been decimated with lockdowns, millions out of work and losing everything. All under republican control. Thank you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Number_in_Poverty_and_Poverty_Rate,_1959_to_2017.png
Google and facts are soemthing you need to become familiar with….
From the Plot it looks like the poverty went way down under JFK and LBJ, down under Nixon, up under Ford, up under Carter, About even under Reagan, up under George HW Bush, down under Clinton, up under George W Bush, down under Obama, down under Trump
The data in the chart contradicts your cursory observation
Change about even under Reagan to slightly down. On the plot if you go from early 1981 to early 1989 there is some decline.
Like I said it’s policy. Lockdown nation was a policy
What changes under republicans or democrats is not poverty but the definition of poverty. The republican party defines poverty downwards, while the democrats say poverty is worse than the republicans claimed.
Any attempt to justify the poverty rate in any administration no matter the party is disgusting, what matters is what the administrations do about it and the GOP has done nothing for the poor, but added more than $8 trillion in new debt in the last four years and then crowed about what a great economy they created without giving any credit to Obama for taking Bush’s record deficit and slashing it by nearly 70% even as he put a majority of unemployed back into real jobs after the republican years under Bush saw the highest unemployment in decades.
The government is using false statistics to prove something that we all know is not true. They still claim $12k per year is poverty for a single person, and I can say with no doubt you cannot even have a roof over your head now in nearly all this country with that income. The real poverty rate rises under democrats because they recognize that people have been swindled out adequate incomes by faux inflation data.
The only people the GOP help are the already rich and they know for a fact that supply side; a rising tide lifts all boats, is horse exhaust! Under Trump the wealthiest 10% have seen their net household worth rise by
“The U.S. government defines wealth by income, not net worth. For example, President Barack Obama defined the middle class as households who make less than $250,000 during the debates over an extension of the Bush tax cuts. During the fiscal cliff crisis, Congress said the middle class constitutes households making less than $450,000. President Trump’s tax plan of 2017 said middle-class couples earn between $75,000 and $225,000.”
You see, a middle class household starts at $75k minimum now, below that you are either poor or “working poor.”
Trends in Household Wealth
During the 11 years between the last two Census wealth reports, U.S. median wealth fell. It was $73,874 in 2000, declining to $68,828 in 2011.6 However, this wasn’t because every quintile experienced a loss—instead, the rich got richer and the poor became poorer. Between 2000 and 2011, wealth increased for those in the top two quintiles, while it decreased for those in the bottom three.
Quintile Median Net Worth (2000) Change by 2011
Bottom -$905 -566%
Next $14,319 -49%
Middle $73,911 -7%
Next $187,552 +10%
Top $569,375 +11%
The Federal Reserve has updated some of the Census wealth statistics. Its latest Survey of Consumer Finance—conducted every three years, with the latest available being the 2016 survey—reported that the wealthiest 1% of Americans now control 38.6% of the nation’s wealth.7 This is a 2.3% increase from the 36.3% they owned in 2013. Every other wealth level in America saw their percentage of wealth fall. The wealthy benefited from a booming stock market, while average Americans didn’t because they couldn’t afford to build large investment portfolios—if they could invest at all.
THIS HAS ACCELERATED UNDER TRUMP, and it has really accelerated during the pandemic to what can only shock the conscience.
There was mention above about the welfare of the nation; the preamble says “….and to promote the general welfare…” and the argument seems to be over just how to do that. The republicans point to the wealthiest of all of us, the 1% and say see? You to can know financial security and even luxury if you just sign on to our values and way of life, even though it is a pyramid scheme of classic description. The democrats say we just want to level the playing field for the working class, but never seem to arrive at this. And every year it all just gets worse so we now have socialists saying screw it, just take it and redistribute and let the chips fall where they may.
All I know is that the current system simply has reached it’s end, that social and financial mobility ended some years back with fits and starts of trying to reassert itself, particularly under Clinton who left office with the best economy we ever knew, no matter what you think of his ethics. It improved again under Obama, at least when you consider how deep the hole Bush had us in when he left office. But even that hole pales to mere inconvenience when you look at the current situation under Trump. I think Biden is probably a good man and will do his best, but I also think that the hole Trump put us in will over time prove to be insurmountable and fatal to the nation.
As Democrats are the Kings and champions Herbert Hoover Depression fiscal “responsibilty” “austerity” “balanced budgets” and the opposite of MMT – and Republicans the exact opposite – expect economic slowdown. But Covid cure if it’s for real will exert an positive affect so hard to judge.
Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain….PM may introduce tighter travel restrictions due to rapid spread of virus mutation in south-east England
The States will be forced to institute eviction moratoria, especially seeing as the burden of eviction enforcement falls on county sheriffs. How they will assuage landlords remains to be seen. Good thing interest rates are so low, landlords could cash out equity to weather the storm.
Have we reached the point in this sick economy that we will need to have a stimulus bill from congress once or twice a year from this point forward? It is sure starting to look like it. At this rate, the dollar will become worthless in no time.
The stimulus bill doesn’t add real money into the economy, it just circulates it a little differently. Think of this circulation: Treasury prints dollars and gives them to poor guy, poor guys pays rent and buys some chicken, landlord and shareholders of Tyson take the dollars and buy stocks, stockholders take dollars and buy treasury bonds, dollars are back at the Treasury, not in circulation anymore. At worst some inflation in stock prices.
“The stimulus bill doesn’t add real money into the economy”
This is correct it adds debt to the economy. As the amount of debt rises the marginal productivity of debt declines. Each additional dollar of debt adds less and less to GDP. If creating debt (dollars) out of thin air was a problem free way of running the economy they’d be no need for anyone to work.
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are making up for lost time when it comes to establishing their financial independence from the royal family.
Hot on the heels of their whopping Netflix deal (reported to be worth $100m) this week they announced they had signed a multi-year deal with streaming giant Spotify, said by some outlets to be worth as much as $35m.
Emotionally their departure from the royal family was all about their independence; Meghan and Harry wanted to be able to say what they wanted and support who they chose without having to seek permission from Buckingham Palace first.
It was notable that they said their new podcasts, branded as Archewell Audio, “will feature stories of hope and compassion from inspirational guests” and spoke of the power of podcasting to “uplift” people.
Subscription required.
“Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are making up for lost time when it comes to establishing their financial independence from the royal family.”
Hunter Biden, writ large, British style. “Let’s pooh all over the royal crown and see what we can get!!!!”
America’s hollow middle class
The cost of living has risen, wages have not, and debt just keeps on accumulating.
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?
Nah, unless you have a little bit of blood. Then it will be sucked out of you! Now, if you don’t have blood, then we will find your closest neighbor that does and get them!