The unemployment rate has been slowing rising for about a year depending on age group and race. A pair of charts spotlights the issue.
Unemployment Rate by Race
- White: 3.5 Percent
- Overall: 4.1 Percent
- Hispanic: 4.9 Percent
- Black: 6.3 Percent
Increase in Unemployment Rate from the Low
- White: 0.5 Percent
- Overall: 0.7 Percent
- Hispanic: 0.8 Percent
- Black: 1.5 Percent
Unemployment Rate by Age Group
- Overall: 4.1 Percent
- 16-19: 12.1 Percent
- 20-24: 7.5 Percent
- 25-34: 4.4 Percent
- 35-44: 3.3 Percent
- 45-54: 2.7 Percent
- 55+ 2.8 Percent
Who is Impacted the Most?
Young adults and blacks.
This is a theme of mine and it shows up again and again in economic data and in polls.
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Q: Who is it that rent?
A: Young adults and blacks.
Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
On June 19, I commented Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Economists say wages are now rising faster than the CPI. That’s not true for those who rent or wish to buy a house.
Today we have additional evidence that shows why young voters and blacks have switched from Biden to Trump in unprecedented numbers.
I have some new polls, with my own charts that show precisely what’s happening. And I believe a recession has started.
I will spell out the case for recession on Monday and I will go over new post-debate polls that reflect the above charts.
A long-term graph of unemployment back to 1948 puts current data in perspective. There were 3 times that unemployment was this low. Late 90s, late 60s, early 50s. Expectation to sustain the current level of employment forever is absurd, which includes the Fed’s mandate. The only way the Fed was able to achieve their goal was to conjure $12T in fiat since the mortgage crisis, one third the national debt. Like an athlete on performance drugs, who requires more injections to maintain their record level of performance.
I think that most of the employment growth relates to government, either directly or indirectly. The private sector not connected to government, has lots of unemployment activity especially in certain areas. Look at the dismal budget numbers in CA for insight into private sector unemployment trends.
Democrats have inflated government spending so much that a real recession will have incredible deficits. At some point, deficits matter.
Hopefully, there’ll be an unemployed president soon.
Government inflation and unemployment numbers are clumsy lies.
And how are you taking advantage of this “special knowledge“? What are the real numbers? And how are you investing based on your real numbers? Please share this knowledge.
16 – 18 yrs seems too young to be an employment category. Aren’t the 16 yrs mostly in High School?- even at 18, today’s society usually views them as ” Kids” who should be in a Trade School or junior college.
That’s another sign of la mbor market weakness. It used to be that having a part-time job in high school was part of growing up – learning how to earn and handle money, deal with people in a work setting, and learn adult responsibility.
Yes, we are bottom bouncing. Too bad Powell delayed the money numbers a whole month.
I’m amazed that we’re expected to believe anything put out by the BLS! why do they insist on using “U-3” at all, why is there even a U-3 or U-6, aren’t they actually the same thing, or meant to be anyway – an accurate accounting of the unemployed. I don’t know if John Williams over at Shadowstats is correct with his ~25% unemployed but using the #’s at usdebtclock.org I come up with 13.4% unemployed U6 + 10% “Not in Labor Force” which seems accurate when having a look around but is probably low.
I disagree. If you ain’t busting your butt to get a job you aren’t really unemployed, you’re just “not working”. But there should be a serious discussion about why so many people are not working who could be, and whether they should be or whether we’vre screwed up the incentive structure so much that we’re collectively shooting ourselves in the foot.
Good reasons for Not Working: stay home parents with working spouses, truly disabled people, elderly over age 75…
Bad reasons for Not Working: wealth-inequality beneficiaries, staying in parents’ basement while getting worthless degrees, disability fraudsters, government sinecure “workers”, etc….
Mish, Hispanic is not a race, There are white, black, mestizo, Native American, and even Asian Hispanics.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpsee_e16.htm
Fair point. The blending of ‘race’ and ‘ethnicity’ in the data complicates things for folks like Mish who endeavor to process information to the point that they can present it to an audience in a straight-forward manner. What would you suggest he use in lieu of “race” in this situation?
To borrow from MLK Jr – perhaps one day the government will categorize employment status not by the color of a person’s skin, but simply whether or not one is employed.
The simple fix is to change the the title of the graph from “Unemployment by Race” to “Unemployment by Race or Ethnicity”. Why subtly promote disinformation that Hispanic is a race? And why leave out Asian?
I could speculate it was unintentional/inadvertant rather than subtle promotion, but that’s neither here nor there. I am also curious why Asian was omitted. Maybe the classification is not regularly discussed in political poll reporting so it was deemed not relevant to the point the author was making here?
All the labels are maleable and have changed over the years, but long ago it was decided that the census takers have to put everyone into a bin. Why use skin tone for some groups, but ethnicity or continent of origin/ancestry for others? How about grouping by eye color instead? /s
The grouping should be by political leaning: Democrat, Republican, LGBTQJP+++, Jewish, Anarchist, etc…
Tell that to the pollsters
Is there a better way to say it?
While that is technically true, in the USA it is effectively treated as one, even by Hispanics themselves…oh, excuse me, “Latinos”.
That ridiculous classification only is useful to bitter and confront people.
An afro-cuban, is black or hispanic? An afghan pastun is classified as white, but his pastun pakistani cousin is classified as asiatic.
Obama is half white, half black, but all people included himself, say he’s black, because it’s useful to his career.
USA would be a better country erasing this nonsense.
Give me a short label that describes
Black, White, Hispanic, etc.
Hahahahahaha…. now imagine what the economy – and the jobs market — look like … without this insane amount of debt.
This f789er… is going down.
Back in the US, while investors were focused on ‘Jensanity’ at the end of last month, the US Treasury reported that in May, the US government collected $323.6 billion in tax receipts but spent more than double that amount, totalling around $670 billion.
This resulted in a May budget deficit of $347 billion, which was about $100 billion more than consensus expected. It marks the second biggest May deficit on record, with only the peak during the Covid crisis in May 2020 being higher.
As a result of the blowout May deficit, the cumulative fiscal 2024 shortfall once again surpassed the total for 2023, bringing the year-to-date deficit to just over $1.2 trillion. This amount exceeds the $1.16 trillion cumulative deficit through May 2023, with four more months left in the fiscal year.
Now, at this point, someone at the CBO with a functioning brain looked at the numbers and realized that their current forecast of ‘only’ $1.5 trillion for the 2024 deficit seemed at best unrealistic and at worst
https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/apres-macron-le-deluge
Same old shit. The white man never gets to be unemployed.
Mish : spam again !
Good connect-the-dots analysis. The Democrats are in trouble.
spam deleted my comment.
– Some standouts that may have an impact on the Election…
Race & UnEmployment:
1. Hispanic Voters: 4.9%
2. Black Voters: 6.3%
> Helps explain the rise in Trumps Poll #’s
Increase in the Unemployment Rate from the Low.
1. Black Voters: 1.5%
> Ditto
Unemployment Rate by Age Group:
1. 16-19: 12.1% – Should be working
2. 20-24: 7.5% – Must be doing something for income
3. 25-34: 4.4% – Have to work 2 jobs
4. 35-44: 3.3% – Have to work
5. 45-54: 2.7% – Have to work
6. 55+ 2.8% – Should not be working
More evidence of which way the wind continues to blow…
“16-19: 12.1 Percent” This group doesn’t want to work. Mom and dad give them the cash they want. A friend of mines son is in that age group. He got a summer job teaching younger kids how to play Fortnite (a video game) at a local chain that offers computer programming and the like for youths. Yeah you read that correctly, a job playing video games all day. He quit after a week. Said it was boring and the kids annoyed him. He said he doesn’t need any money, he gets what he needs from his parents.
“…2. 20-24: 7.5% – Must be doing something for income…” They should be but why work when you can live with mom and dad while in school (or not in school)? ⁷
Agreed except your age threshold for row 6 is waaay too low for most people. Most people are capable of doing lighter work to age 70+ nowadays. As a society we benefit from everyone contributing however they can, and not drawing so much on benefits that must be provided by others.
I’d add on row 6 that those of us in that group should be working a little less and pushing fitness and diet to avoid premature disability or mortality.
Biden is about to be impacted the most. His personal unemployment rate will soon be 100%.
Biden can have my compassion, but not my vote. He is a victim of elder abuse by conspirators trying to take over the country from the inside.
I believe that the conspirators took over the US some time ago.
More cult sh*t. Name them.
Alexander Hamilton to start with.
Sadly, no it won’t. He’ll be collecting his 10% for life in all sorts of quiet ways.