The Wagner forces are advancing towards Moscow. The key word in my title is chance. No one knows what will happen next.
I was on a Twitter Space early this morning (just after midnight) with Mario Nawfal. A quick check shows the Twitter Space is still going. You can Join at the preceding link.
My View
- This coup may easily succeed. That is not a prediction that it will.
- One of my readers commented in my prior post, that Russia has 750,000 troop and Wagner only 25,000 so the coup cannot possibly succeed. I responded “Lovely – all of those troops, assuming they exist, are in Ukraine How many of them want to be there? How trained are they? Are they willing to die for Putin or do they just want an end to this mess?”
- Another reader commented “This feeds into the Western wet dream of Putin being overthrown. Thus, it’s probably a Russian psyop [psychological operation]. Prigoshin is a friend of Putin and Prigoshin has never criticized Putin.” I Highly doubt this view. Prigoshin was a friend of Putin because he had to be to get to control 25,000 troops. Now? The smart thing for him to do is pretend he still is.
A third reader commented “For all we know Putin could be behind his own coup.” There were a number of people on the Twitter Space last night with that view. I find it laughable.
Competing Theories
- Wagner pulled his troops from Ukraine to stage a fake coup to prop up Putin.
- Wagner is tired of the war, sees a chance, and wants to end the Russian military leadership.
Wagner is now advancing on Moscow. What is Putin to do? Bomb the Wagner forces, likely killing many civilians in the process? Bomb Moscow once Wagner gets there.
As Wagner advances on Moscow, there are no signs of any resistance. None. That is an undisputed fact. What does it mean? One possibility is the Russian military has not taken sides. How many of these troops are willing to die for Putin? There are even reports that Russian troops are joining Wagner.
A senior U.S. military official told NBC News that he does not believe Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, is attempting a coup against Putin at this stage, but rather an attempt to remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
I highly doubt that view. It may not even be a view. It could be a purposeful lie for some reason. Assuming that is the real view, I find it preposterous. You do not attack the military forces of a country unless the real goal is to topple the leadership.
With that, let’s take a look at the current news.
March to Moscow
Putin Looks to Crush Wagner as Group Rolls Toward Moscow
The Wall Street Journal reports Russia’s Putin Orders Military to Crush Wagner Power Grab, Calls It Treason
As Wagner columns moved toward Moscow Saturday, they were attacked by Russian aircraft in the Voronezh region, some 300 miles south of the capital. Videos from the area showed the city of Voronezh’s main fuel depot ablaze, a Ka-52 helicopter destroying a vehicle, and another helicopter narrowly escaping a Wagner antiaircraft missile. A Russian plane was also shot down.
Wagner troops, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, earlier in the day took over the main military headquarters for southern Russia, in Rostov, and other installations there, encountering virtually no resistance from the regular armed forces. After that, Wagner sent columns of troops northward toward Moscow, as the Russian army rushed to cut off highways and defend the capital city. Moving past Voronezh, Wagner’s tanks and troop carriers were seen by Saturday lunchtime crossing the Lipetsk region, where authorities called on residents to remain indoors.
While Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian president remained in the Kremlin, flight-monitoring services showed that at least two special flight-squadron aircraft used by Russia’s top leadership left the capital for St. Petersburg on Saturday. Russian troops started preparing fortifications on approaches to Moscow.
Perfectly Timed Insurrection
Anyone who believes this is staged is delusional. And it’s damn clear Putin and Prigozhin are no longer friends, if they ever really were. If anything, Prigozhin staged a friendship with Putin.
Ultimately, this is going to be decided by what the Russian military decides to do. We do not know what that is. But if Putin pulls troops from Ukraine to Moscow, Ukraine will attack vigorously and take back more territory, perhaps easily.
Wagner had perfect timing in his coup.
Things are still fluid. But as my title says, ” There’s a Decent Chance the Wagner Coup in Russia Succeeds in Toppling Putin.”
Then what? We still don’t know. But resistance right now by Russia is somewhere between feeble and nonexistent.
IMO you are probably expressing your WISH rather than your objective opinion that today’s events is refuting. In this tragic Russia-USA standoff both sides share blame but, again IMO, mostly responsible is our President and his supporters.
The US did trigger Putin. Look no further than John McCain. That does not excuse Putin.
Half a century ago our last great President almost risked WWIII to prevent USSR missiles in Cuba. During the last 30 or so years NATO, a currently useless organization, has been expanding with nuclear weapons encircling western Russia disregarding our promise to abstain from such action. Who really has ,while not totally, the high ground on this issue?
.
It’s over. A couple things are difficult to ignore. The first is the West was not ready with any sort of response, even with respect to the media. Given that coupled with how it ended and how quickly it ended, and it doesn’t look at all like the West was involved with Prigozhin’s project. The second point is that this resolution worked out with Lukashenko does absolutely nothing to address Prigozhin’s purported concerns that prompted him to head to Rostov-on-don in the first place. No mention of the alleged airstrike, the purported video of same, the allegations of grossly understating Russian losses on the battlefield or the losses of territory in Ukraine. No addressing the claim of gross mismanagement of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the operation itself. Either the claims were disingenuous or Prigozhin is disingenuous about wanting to do anything about them. There were photos and articles about a raid on Prigozhin’s offices and a heck of a lot of money being confiscated – which might or might not be related to ability for him to pay his troops. Russian MOD wants all of them signed to contracts directly with the MOD. Every bit of this is disjointed and if Prigozhin is at all rational, it would appear he did it entirely for himself. Either that or he went mad, but the video of the discussion with senior Russian military officials doesn’t indicate madness – at least, not the plain vanilla kind. The explanation that fits the most loose ends together is that it was about Prigozhin, money and power. And Ramzan Kadyrov has just characterized it this way. He’s pretty close to the action.
As I was sceptical in the other post, this whole insurrection was a deflection. Now with the supposed peaceful resolution the following has been achieved by Putin.
1. New Sanctions on Wagner forces (gold mining in Africa) has been delayed (source WSJ).
2. Wagner gets to deploy in Belarus border areas near Poland and Lithuania.
3. Kremlin can claim it has no control over whatever provocations Wagner forces start with Poland or Lithuania
4. The west will be divided on supporting/opposing Wagner.
Also cells which were in place in both Belarus and in Russia waiting for an insurrection exposed.
With the classic ‘Rasputin’ mind game, everyone watches the shells being moved while he plays chess. Distraction/deflection–absolutely. However, it is also possible he’s poking the west merely to keep them guessing–there is no other (ulterior) motive.
Also, consider the (apparent) impact on Russia-China relations. By making Russia appear ‘destabilized’ with internal dissent, China will (logically) appear to separate somewhat, reducing pressure coming from the west. Meanwhile, Asian hegemony quietly expands while the US panics over Trump’s inexorable return to the Rainbow House.
Apparently this coup is over:
charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
Wagner fighters who didn’t take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
No word on potential MOD leadership changes
Also Wagner forces conveniently placed near Belarus where they were intended to be. Gee that was convenient!
Ok, just kidding, changed my mind. I’m going to give up my guys to the regular army and get out of dodge to Belarius. Here, let me crack a glass to toast. Oops, was that poisoned?
I can see how Prigozhin’s march was a calculated risk based on how much Putin wants Ukraine and any civil war would quickly reduce the number of troops and equipment Russia has available to beat Ukraine. For now, Prigozhin is safe from Putin. The real questions are did Prigozhin convince Putin to get rid of those military officials, and can Prigozhin capture Ukraine for Putin? It seems like a Prigozhin has made a suicide pact with Putin.
Mish you are a fabulous economist and a fabulous analyst but you do not appear to have very good sources for information regarding Russia and the Ukraine war. These are helpful for those who do not speak or read Russian:
link to substack.com
link to youtube.com
link to colonelcassad.livejournal.com (use machine translator)
link to tass.com
Thank you for your excellent column.
The important question not being asked here is how do we profit from this coup?
If Putin goes down, will oil flow again? If so, time to short oil stocks
Will new leadership expand conflicts? If so, time to short all stocks
If new leadership ends conflict it will be boom time again with cheap energy flowing? Time to buy stocks.
So many possibilities so many opportunities, how to position a portfolio? Hedges seem the way to go.
That’s simple. Buy a ticket on the money train.
Of course you won’t be seated in the front of the train or the middle. In fact, you’ll be seated in the caboose. But it isn’t the first caboose, or the second. With luck, you’ll get a seat in the third or fourth.
The important thing is, you’ll have a seat on the money train. As soon as those sitting in front of you get their profits, you’ll have an opportunity to (maybe) get yours.
Well let’s project 6 months out. Ukraine is crushed, the whole fiasco of the Ukraine war slowly seeps into the American conscious. Europe has lost its access to cheap Russian energy and governments in Europe are trouble because of the economic fallout. Blame is being cast everywhere for this debacle and NATO is cracking at the seems. Spurred on by Washinton’s ineptitude, China begins taking a more agressive stance towards the US’s continuing provocations around Taiwan and the South China Sea. The US’s economy sinks into stagflation due to high interest rates and reckless fiscal spending to bolster Biden chance of re-election. I’d say the markets are headed for disaster.
Ukraine Crushed in 6 Months – What fantasyland world are you in?
Ukraine is already crushed. It keeps getting worse by the day. Maybe there was something to salvage if the Russia-Ukraine-Turkey deal was not sabotaged by the West. We have come a long way from there.
i’d say he’s less in a fantasy world than your earlier analysis of coup. no offense of course. putin already controls what he wanted out of ukraine. whether he takes it all or not is only thing outstanding. amerika is bleeding under endless war and spending and stagflation with suicides and over doses and some cities and rural areas with the most brutal conditions imaginable. the amerikan empire is crumbling for decades now and picking up steam. judge napalitano and scott ritter nailed today’s events. i remember on 9.11.01 saying out loud it was christmas morning for the bush crime family. boy was i correct. global war on terror………..continues endless wars.
If Prigozhin is responsible for shooting down aircraft causing the death of the aircrew, then that is murder, and he has effectively signed his own death warrent if President Putin and the political and military leadership fulfill their responsibility and obligation to contain, control, cripple, and curtail the apparent acts of treason.
Regardless if Prigozhin is absolutely correct about the incompetent military leadership mired in their self-serving misreporting and falsifying of death and injury statistics and the broken logistical supply chain, (and he probably is: no country is immune to the combination of bureaucratic incompetence and corruption), marching toward Moskva is an invitation begging and pleading to have Mr. Prigozhin and his columns vaporized from afar (if he is stupid enough to be in them) with a few cruise missiles drones, and ground attack aircraft.
There is much more at stake than just an attack on Moskva – the timing lends itself to opening the whole country to attack if the capitol is in chaos with a coup attempt during a time of war and defacto war with the hostile idiots of the U.S., UK, and NATO. Do not fool yourself thinking they are not rubbing their hands together and licking their drooling slobber from their lips in hopeful anticipation. Putin must quickly and succinctly eradicate any disunity, especially within the military, so as not to present himself or the country as weak and vulnerable to attack. Slimeball scumbags in Washington just might perceive such a time as an opportunity to stage an attack which would threaten the integrity of the nation state of Russia 🇷🇺, and we all know where that goes – nuclear.
Nobody wins, and everybody loses – No exceptions.
What is concerning and disturbing is the neocon idiots by their actions demonstrate that they are willing to gamble your life, my life, your children, friends and families’ lives that they just might be able to fulfill their long standing wet dream of raping, pillaging, plundering, exploiting, and rebuilding Russia 🇷🇺 using our tax money and the lives of our children in another in the long series of endless perpetual wars. God bless and protect you all.
The power struggle is just beginning.
Yes I hear Biden is about to be toppled for selling out his country using his sleazy son Hunter. President Kamala Harris will restore faith and confidence in the US guberment! 🤣
Guberment. Is that an ice cream flavor? Can I get it at Ben and Jerry’s?
Alexander Lukashenko brokers a deal, and Cecil B. DeMille calls it a wrap.
It made me laugh; it made me cry. It was decent production, and I’ll give it 3 stars.
I don’t know. I think Prigoshin overdoes the acting a little. Makes it hard to believe the story line.
But Prigoshin is not tired of the war. He wants a more brutal war. He wants Putin to stop pussyfooting around (he along with many Kremlin hardliners). As Col. MacGregor has stated multiple times, Putin has shown unbelievable restraint. This has allowed Biden to continue to escalate. An overthrow of Putin would be the worst possible outcome for the West. It would not herald a new age of Yeltsin like exploitation of Russian resources as many neocons believe. It would be the dawn of a very hot war which the West is likely to lose.
Note that after a year of war, Russia is much stronger both economically and militarily. The West is much weaker on both fronts. While Russian armament factories have spun up to mass produce weapons and ammo, the West has depleted its armament stockpiles and moral compass.
link to rt.com
24 June 2023
17:32 GMT
“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held negotiations with the leader of the mutinous Russian PMC Wagner Group, Evgeny Prigozhin, and found an “absolutely beneficial and acceptable” way to end the crisis. The development was announced by Lukashenko’s press service, with the breakthrough reached after tense “day-long” talks.
The negotiations were conducted after speaking with and in coordination with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the press service noted. Prigozhin has accepted the offer to “stop advancements” of the PMC’s companies across Russia, it added.”
link to rt.com
” Wagner boss confirms cancellation of advance on Moscow
The mutinous PMC is returning back to its field camps, the Wagner Group boss Evgeny Prigozhin has announced ”
But probably this story is not finished…
The Achilles heel of a 500 mile march through occupied territory are supply lines, specifically fuel
It takes a lotta oil to move the equipment for 25,000 troops hundreds of miles.
Where’s it coming from? Cut that supply and what you have are 25,000 armed men stuck in the middle of no where.
Everyone needs to see this LONG, detailed, old article on the history of the Ukraine debacle!!! Needs repeating today for sure.
link to covertactionmagazine.com
Or listen to Jeffery Sachs, John Mearsheimer, the Duran, Scott Ritter, Col. Douglas MacGregor, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern,…. There is a long list of credible voices out there pushing against the war propaganda.
You just don’t understand.
If Putin takes Ukraine, next is Laos, then Cambodia, then Thailand and Indonesia. Oops, sorry, wrong dominoes.
so funny.
Just had a friend of mine opine last week, Putin has to be stopped before he takes over all of Eastern Europe.
I reminded him why we were in Vietnam (and he’s old enough to remember).
Almost impossible to change people’s viewpoints, as it would change their complete foundational beliefs. That’s worse than a heart attack or stroke.
Wrong analogy. This is like a return to the Cold War this time with a reinvigorated NATO and a rump USSR each whom looks at Ukraine as their vital interest. For people in Europe it is not far away but right next door hence their very strong military and financial support of Ukraine.
Seriously, there needs to be an up-vote button.
You should know Putin is Hitler and Hitler wants to invade Poland. Apparently he wants worker productivity to drop like a stone. How many polish people does it take to replace a light bulb?
Let’s pull this apart. First of all the Russian army in either in Ukraine or next to it and the transportation and supply hub for the army runs through Rostov which Wagner controls. Moscow controls the roads and rails to and from just about everywhere so if Wagner controls Rostov and Moscow it makes it very hard for forces coming from elsewhere. The Air Force except for a few small strikes is absent. I would say that Prigozhin’s move was much less a surprise for many in the armed forces than when Putin ordered them to invade Ukraine. Also the Ukrainian secret services aided by the Western ones are very well aware and certainly facilitated Prigozhin’s move.
For the future Prigozhin is 62 years old which is really a bit old to start a new career as a dictator. It’s a young man’s game and to stay on top you need stamina and at 62 you don’t have it so obviously he will back someone else in exchange for guarantees of course. In any case Putin is out and someone new will be in but we don’t know who. My guess it will return to a politburo form of government instead of one man rule which as everybody there has now seen really sucks as a form of government.
Sure, a politburo, not one man rule.
Like the politburo Xi has in China, or Kim Jong Un in Korea.
As Tom Lehrer used to sing: “Who’s Next?”
A politburo ruled in both Russia/USSR and China for many decades. The one-man-rule in both countries became popular only with Xi and Putin. Both eliminated all their rivals. In a way they are yearning to become Stalin and Mao and we all know how well that turned out.
This kinda stuff always seems to backfire on the West. We could be looking at the formation of a nuclear weapon armed neo-nazi Isis with neo-nazis from Russia and Ukraine initially and then from all over Europe joining up. If the West thinks they could control something like that they are badly mistaken.
The first casualty of WAR is the truth. They have been and will continue to LIE about everything.
So now we have drama about the LIES, while we pay for the entire Ukranian government to operate. We the People are paying for them.
Has there ever been a time when Rasputin has not played mind games?
As I said, Rasputin plays mind games.
Occams Razor applies.
The USA / CIA is financing the cup efforts.
if this coup succeeds, it’s leadership will make putin look like a peacenik. this fella started out life like stalin. a street thug who did hard time in leningrad, and became a hot dog vendor and oligarch.
Unclear, the people are tired of this damn war. Wagner may end it.
Prigozhin in his last few videos said that the war was a big mistake and that it will take decades to restore the damage Putin has done to Russian-Ukraine relations. He will end it and many in the army and air force have already arrived at that conclusion. Certainly there has already been some “understandings” communicated and assurances given between the two sides “unofficially” of course.
Occam’s Razor: Zelenskyy simply bribed Prigozhin with NATO money and perks.
Remember Napoleon stayed in Moscow for five weeks, waiting for a peace offer that never came.
If they bribed him to show that there is enough dissention in the ranks to drive almost to the gates of Moscow not only not being attacked but also getting a pardon in the end then I would say it was money well spent. It makes Putin look weak. He has not complete control of his army and was forced to fire his closest and most loyal collaborators. In the meantime it looks like a Mexican Standoff. Who is the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly?
Sounds more like a personal wish than reality. I could be wrong as well, but I don’t see Putin being the little push over that everyone seems to consider him to be. I see this as being funded by the US suddenly finding 6 bn in an “accounting error”. It smells more like US last ditch effort than anything else. It’s nothing more than an assassination attempt on Putin by the US. But it also opens the door for Putin to begin killing US leaders. I hope not, but FAFO is a real thing.
As much as I want Putin gone, I agree w/ TT — this dude is not going to be better. Russia has been a mess and simply getting rid of one thug and replacing him w/ another is less than ideal.
I wouldn’t even assume he’d stop w/ going after Ukraine.
How many troops will Wagner lose during his 500 mile march to Moscow?
This coup will not be successful
So far – None and Wagner has shot down 4 helicopters and some say one plane as well.
The march to Moscow is now down to a couple hundred miles at most. And 4 columns in different routes.
Absurd to think this cannot succeed. That does not imply it will.
You may want to start reading Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar’s column in indianpunchline.com This is what he said BEFORE the surrender of Prigozhin, when you were saying he has a decent chance :
“In the final analysis, this macabre attempt at mutiny won’t fly. Oligarchs are a detested lot in the Russian opinion. Any western hopes of staging an insurrection in Russia and a regime change under a renegade oligarch’s banner will be an absurd idea, to say the least.”
I am going hiking. Will be gone for hours. I will not be here to approve comments but most will post automatically.
Meanwhile, the situation is very fluid. No one knows what the Russian army will do.
Does Putin even know which leaders he can count on?
I will have a post out, written in advance, later this afternoon. It’s not about Russia,
FYI
Prigoshin cancels coup d’etat.
link to rt.com
They played you like a fiddle!
The Wagner Group did not like being cannon fodder and simply wanted to end the war in Ukraine like they know they could do, if Putin didn’t hand cuff them. Putin may have now given them their wish. Below is what I wrote my politicians before the about face …
link to armstrongeconomics.com
The House and Senate better reign in Graham, Blumenthal, and the other nutjobs on the Neocons payroll, NOW! Most states have military and strategic targets that Russia will and can hit with hypersonic missile in minutes. If this BS gets out of control, and with this bunch of delusional Neocons in charge, it certainly can, you will not have constituents to rule over, even if you have a bunker to hide in.
To understand how serious things have gotten, the Russian Neocons (Wagner Group) are using their own false flag to remove Putin because he has not been tough enough on Ukraine and their puppet masters in the US/NATO.
Putin came to power because he was not a Neocon or Oligarch. Putin is a moderate, not a madman, as the MSM wants you to believe. The Wagner Group knows this war could’ve been over in six weeks if they took out all of the infrastructure, as we did in Iraq. Putin did not do “shock and awe” because his objective was to only protect the Russians in the east of Ukraine, which has been 95% Russian for hundreds of years.
What if China invaded the US Virgin Islands, Guam, PR, or American Samoa? Would the US be justified to protect Americans living in these American territories? There was ZERO justification for the CIA to be training and arming the Ukrainian Nazis (Azov Battalion) to invade the Dunbas back in 2013 and start the civil war, unless the objective was to start WW3. The bottom line is if Putin is removed or steps down, a nuclear WW3 is guaranteed.
Watch Putin’s speech that he just made about the Wagner Group coup – link to armstrongeconomics.com.
His words are exactly what Trump should have said about the Neocons in our Govt, but maybe he was afraid he would suffer the same fate as JFK, who took on his own Neocons. Sadly, our Neocons have already pulled off their coup by rigging the elections for their puppet, Biden.
You know this pre-planned proxy war in Ukraine is as bogus as coronadoom and gloBull warming, and you also know that Ukraine is losing badly, thus the need for the Graham-Blumenthal false flag.
Everyone with a brain knows the US has shut down every opportunity for peace talks, blew up the Nordstream Pipelines, and the Kakhovka Damn. You should know that the mother WEFers also want the war excuse to default on the debt and install digital currencies to impose their Great Reset nightmare.
Watch the video towards bottom of the following post, called “We Can Hack Humans”, and you will understand the mindset of the nutjob leaders at the WEF, whom the West are following –
link to armstrongeconomics.com.
If you cared about this country more than yourself, you would be shouting these truths from the floor and mountaintops. Don’t be like the doctors of the Global Health Project, who have belatedly come to their senses regarding the lies told about the jab bioweapon and coronadoom “protocols” – link to armstrongeconomics.com.
It doesn’t matter if you have been brainwashed, are ignorant, or believe you are protecting your job, history and your friends and relatives will judge you the same.
The timing for this unthinkable confrontation, between July-Sept, has been forecasted by Armstrong for years. Following the money (capital flows) is predictive because the insiders move their money in advance of major events, and if gold makes its current low next week and then bust through the high, we will know you have failed.
You are as guilty as Graham and Blumenthal, if you do not stop this insanity. Hopefully, you and your comrads in Govt will be inundated with demands to stop this BS now.