Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Wagner Group rebels led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. I see no winners in this deal.
Coup Aborted 125 Miles Short
The Wall Street Journal reports Wagner Stops March on Moscow as Belarus Brokers Deal
The Wagner paramilitary group halted its march on Moscow on Saturday, after Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the rebels, averting an armed confrontation that threatened to plunge the country into civil war.
Criminal charges against Wagner’s owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will be dropped and he will relocate to Belarus, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Wagner soldiers who took part in the mutiny will be granted amnesty, while those who stayed in their barracks will be offered a contract with the defense ministry, he added.
There were no further details, particularly about the fate of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of Russia’s general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, whose removal Prigozhin had demanded as he seized Rostov and sent his troops marching toward the capital. Peskov said the issue hasn’t been discussed with Lukashenko. Prigozhin himself didn’t make any statements about leaving Russia.
The tentative truce was the latest twist in a tumultuous day that raised serious questions about Putin’s hold on power and underscored growing tensions within the Russian establishment and armed forces.
It was less clear what the day’s fast-moving events meant for Prigozhin. The march on Moscow initially highlighted his formidable clout as leader of a motivated and well-armed paramilitary force, contrasting sharply with a Russian military largely demoralized after 16 months of fighting in Ukraine. But the end result raised questions about whether Prigozhin had miscalculated and whether he would be able to retain any power while in Belarus.
“Understanding all the responsibility that Russian blood may be spilled by one of the sides, we have turned around our columns and are returning to the field camps, according to plan,” Prigozhin said.
No Winners
The statement by Prigozhin about bloodshed makes little sense on the surface. Did he expect no bloodshed despite shooting down 6 helicopters and an IL-18 or IL-22 airborne command center plane. A total of 12 Air Force crew died, according to Fighterbomber.
Perhaps Prigozhin got word the military would back Putin. Regardless, this is not a staged event and there are no winners from it.
Some people posted I had egg on my face. They cannot read or understand English. I said the coup might succeed. I did not say it would.
Putin did not come out ahead. He accused Prigozhin of treason, which it was by any reasonable definition, then Putin lets him get off without penalty. Troops that should be fighting in Ukraine aren’t there. Sentiment on the front line is miserable and these events are sure to make sentiment worse.
It would not surprise me one bit if Lukashenko hands Prigozhin over to Putin or if Prigozhin mysteriously commits “suicide”. But neither of those actions will “strengthen Putin.
This is a huge morale-breaking event for the Russian military and Putin no matter what happens to Prigozhin.
Addendum
““Our country will never be the way it used to be. Wagner’s column didn’t move on the asphalt, it moved through people’s hearts, cutting them in half,” noted Aleksandr Khodakovsky, a veteran of the pro-Russian movement in Ukraine’s Donbas region who is now deputy commander of the Russian National Guard in Donetsk. “Yesterday, everything was hanging on a very thin thread.”
“The entire world has seen that Russia is on the brink of the most acute political crisis,” Sergei Markov, a former Putin adviser and a political analyst in Moscow, said on Telegram. “Yes, the putsch failed now. But putsches have fundamental reasons. And if the reasons remain, a putsch will happen again. And it could be successful.”
By the way, where were any rallies anywhere for Putin?
The criminal indictment was not for treason but for armed insurrection.
For Putin this was damage control, not turning the revered Wagners into martyrs and creating a lot of mayhem and collateral civilian deaths. Who knows how much shuffling and retribution will take place behind the scenes out of view in the aftermath.
Don’t think it weakens Putin’s position … the mercenaries were a mistake, that’s why they were integrating them into the armed forces and didn’t renew their contract (May 21 terminated). Such loose cannons have always plagued mercenary factions throughout history.
This clown car act is demoralizing for Russian troops and civilians whether it was authentic or staged. Has to make conscription more difficult and desertion more palatable.
Russian trolls are hilarious. In this comical post, the CIA bought off one of Putin’s most trusted cronies. Who else is on their payroll: Medvedev?
I wonder how much money the morons in the CIA and MI-6 were screwed out of by this obvious con job?
I added a pair of Tweet to this post as an addendum.
The WSJ concludes the same as I did.
“Wagner’s Aborted Mutiny Leaves No Winners in Russia:
Me, Yesterday: “I see no winners in this deal.”
Ah, the WSJ! They have been sooooo good at telling the truth about the Empire’s invasions and proxy wars! LOL
“The WSJ concludes the same as I did.
“Wagner’s Aborted Mutiny Leaves No Winners in Russia:
Me, Yesterday: “I see no winners in this deal.””
Mish, I would disagree 100%. The CIA/Nuland coup failed miserably. MSM in full retard mode telling the public the war is not lost, humongous internal strike in Russia, Bidens Burisma Ukraine project is winning, etc. etc
The Biden administration is likely hinging their election efforts on this war and it is not turning out well. This reminds me of a PBS documentary on the Vietnam war where the US was winning the war all the way up until they were being evacuated by helicopters from the embassy.
I’m wondering what’s the basis for saying “Sentiment on the [Russian] front line is miserable”?
Seems to me that this would apply in spades to the Ukrainian side.
It may very well apply to both sides but which side has lost massive amounts of territory over the past year? Which side is fighting for their homeland? etc.
Putin’s inner circle:
https://www.thefarside.com/2023/06/22/3
Something is “off” about this whole situation. Pres. Putin isn’t the type of leader who magnanimously pardons a would-be mutineer. Mr. Prigozhin isn’t the type of leader who would stop an operation if he was confident of success. I don’t know if this was all genuine or some type of psy-op: the word BIZARRE comes to mind.
Agree. I smell CIA or other US direct involvement all over this. Hiding the sub explosion. Then a “coup” Russia. All in the same 72 hour period that Schiff is censured and the Treason allegations against Bidan show some teeth, and it’s clear Russia is crushing the ‘spring offensive’.
Victoria Nuland call your office.
There is much misdirection going on in the MSM news for quite a long time now while main street America is having its’ collective pockets picked and so called constitutional rights rewritten/revoked/ignored. Can’t have the proletariat catching on and becoming aware…
I see Nuland’s dirty hands all over this alleged coup.
You didn’t announce that the RSS feed changed to:
https://mishtalk.com/feed/
But Inoreader generates an error when I try to use that:
MishTalk
https://mishtalk.com/
Date followed: Jun 24 2023
XML ADDRESS:
https://mishtalk.com/feed/
FOLLOWERS:
52
POSTS THIS WEEK:
0
LAST POST:
Oct 2017
UPDATE INTERVAL:
Realtime
LAST CRAWLED:
Sat Jun 24, 2023 22:10 (Error)
LAST ERROR:
cURL error 6: Could not resolve host: mishtalk.com
This was an Inoreader problem. Now resolved.
1. Several thousand troops were able to take large cities and get very close to Moscow without being stopped militarily.
2. Putin was forced to negotiate to stop the mutineers from reaching Moscow and had to offer full immunity to the leader and guarantee that Wagner remains as an organization and a unit.
3. Putin’s intelligence services had no idea a mutiny was in the works.
4. No one expects the truce, because it is a truce only, to hold. Putin cannot let open rebellion against his authority to stand.
1. That seems dubious, no? Taking one large city and holding it with several thousand troops would be a challenge and a messy one at that.
2. The promise of safe harbor for the leader of an attempted coup that is within the borders of a close ally of Russia? That doesn’t seem like something Putin would be ‘forced’ into.
3. That is something no one on this forum knows to be true or false.
In the U.S. the feds are not strangers to fomenting/encouraging plots, but usually a patsy or three is brought up on charges. Won’t pretend to know the full story, but the actions appear to be scripted to this observer.
I have been hearing so many views on this. Scott Ritter thinks MI6 & CIA were involved. That is my first thought when it first came to my attention. NATO wants to break the spirits of the Russians and create confusion. This sure did that. But, if they are involved, they are really playing with fire. Putin is a sane person. Whoever would step in, probably would not be sober. A civil war in a country with 6,000 active nukes sounds frightening to me.
I disagree. Putin came out as the rational one in this Western/Ukrainian endeavor to cause a revolution. I would encourage folks here to listen to Scott Ritter (former US Marine) and his analysis of the situation on Bitchute with latest interview with Judge Napolitano. Russia is not faltering on the front and you are wrong Mish. Sorry, but I’ll pass on your military analysis. Stick to finance stuff, but this is your blog to do as you will.
According to Scott Ritter (I’ve been listening to him since this war started), Prigozhin probably got support from Urkaine’s spy service (SBU) and more MI6 (British spy service) and lesser degree CIA. Ritter mentioned Russia’s FSB busted a group from SBU that was going to cause all kinds of havoc in Moscow a couple days ago so that the people of Moscow would be in chaos (think 9/11 and world trade center) and people would rush to Wagner and Prigozhin. Didn’t happen. The Russian military was mobilized and ready to smash Wagner. Wagner is distributed at the front still and a number were preparing to move from Rostov to Moscow. I encourage you guys to listen to Scott talk about this and follow him regularly if you care to know about what is REALLY GOING ON.
This statement that the Russians are doing poorly on the front is false. General Surovkin prepared a defensive front with layers. In another interview, US Marine (not finance expert) Scott Ritter talks about how brilliant this defensive plans are by General Surovkin who by the way is the Russian general (also called General Apocalypse) who turned things around in Syria when the American government and other western governments (shame!) were supporting ISIS and related groups to overturn President Assad’s government in Syria.
America, England, France, Germany and rest of NATO (minus Hungary) need to stop using Ukrainian young men as proxy’s to antagonize Russia and pushing to Russia’s border. Stop the violence and these endless wars.
Forget Scott Ritter’s take. Look at Larry Johnson’s take. Probably closer to the truth.
https://sonar21.com/russias-academy-award-winning-performance-for-best-coup-prigozhin-scores-best-actor/
The Russians aren’t doing poorly? They are losing territory in an invasion that was supposed to be completed a year ago.
By Russian standards, I suppose anything that isn’t an alcoholic coma is a win…
Well, the boil is lanced. The people of Russia have certainly benefited by the deal: can you imagine what the national morale would be with potentially miles of columns of burnt out vehicles and charcoalized bodies littering the roads and major highways? There would most likely have been painful and ugly collateral damage of unintended civilian death and injuries. The nation can now move forward and resolve the war with Ukraine and NATO in relative unity.
What was Prigozhin thinking? How else could it have ended? It was delusional to think he would be allowed to enter the city with a hostile paramilitary force, the outcome of which would have been far more uglier and painful with inestimable collateral damage than mere charcoalized bodies on the highway.
Prigozhin’s public allegations will certainly have resonated with many. Expect some house cleaning imminently. Putin would be a fool not to address Prigozhin’s allegations of stat fraud and incompetence if there is any truth in them.
Praise God that tragic death, bloodshed and destruction have been avoided.
I will believe the house cleaning when I see it. Doubtful that he can afford to remove those most loyal to him on the demand of someone who just rebelled against him. What I see now is that Prigozhin just said the Tsar has no clothes on and now everyone in Russia and outside sees it. The Ukraine war destroyed Putin’s reputation as a “3-D chess-player” and this destroyed his reputation of being in control at home. If Putin could have he would have destroyed Prigozhin he would have but he couldn’t and that weakness is now there for all to see.
Putin was a fool to invade Ukraine. I’m not betting against his continued foolishness.
hey, why don t you go to Nazi Kiev and enroll in the Nazi army, Ukraine s running out of men these days as the ‘counteroffensive ‘ is destroying men and material by the thousands ….well, If you are a man that is , which I doubt
Hmmm. The US had a 6bn windfall accounting error with ukraine money. I wonder if they bought Prigozhin and then Prigozhin sold the CIA out to putin. Think about it. Hey, Prig, this is the CIA. You are a merc, mercs love money. We have 6bn reasons why you should go on a suicide mission to moscow. Prigozhin: deposit the cash, I’m heading for moscow.
The cash is confirmed to be in the banks. Ring ring, hello vladamir, Prigozhin here. I’ve got 6bn of the American’s cash and I will split it with you. Just give the word and the coup is off. Vlad: Da.
So what if a few pawns died, that’s 6 billion dollars.
How do you know pan’s died. Because it was reported to you be the news? You need to extend your skepticism.
Forgot my w!
The big winner here is Biden. With just a few billion dollars sent over to Ukraine, Biden has managed to destabilize Russia shattering its economy, it has caused China to question its relationship with Russia and severed Russia’s relationship with Europe.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-disarray-means-a-moment-of-uncertainty-in-beijing-52882208
I’m sure tomorrow morning, Biden is gonna have a huge grin on his face while eating corn flakes. Oh sleepy, Joe, who would have thunk it.
Biden is swirling around the toilet. Reporter are actually starting to ask questions instead of cover for him.
Wonder if he is taking a large amount of troops with him. If its a great cover to swing troops into ukraine from belarus
If Wagner is picking up and moving to Belarus who’s doing the fighting in Ukraine? Putin’s poorly trained army?
We don’t even know if there were any aircraft shoot downs, the footage shown was all without context. There is a massive propaganda apparatus in the West directing the perception of this conflict and thinking these people know what’s really going on is absurd, especially since they’ve been claiming the Russians are running out of ammo and fighting with shovels for a year now.
Mish, as well most other American people, seem to have conveniently forgotten that all this “news” about the enemy being in trouble etc., is from the same people on the same media outlets that have told the same lies almost non-stop for the last 20 years!
Russian news in 2021:
“We can take Kiev in three days.”
Yep that was the belief.
How much territory has Russia lost in the past year?
And for what?
If Putin would have stopped in Donbas and demanded peace, he would be way ahead. He is no genius.
“‘If Putin would have stopped in Donbas and demanded peace, he would be way ahead. He is no genius.”
If Putin would have stopped in Donbas and demanded peace, it would have just been Minsk3.
Mish, Im turning the cards around here, are you delusional in thinking the West would have said ok, lets have peace? The US goal is to fight to the last Ukrainian. I wouldnt describe Putin a genius for recognizing this, just able to use critical thinking.
The West has proven itself an unreliable negotiator
– lied about the Minsk accords. Merkel on record on this
– build up of vast, modern army next door to Russia.
-while beating it’s breast about “human rights” ignores purging of Russian language, culture, religion within ukraine borders, ignores when majority of a region would elect to be with Russia, and so on.
– repeated lies on everything from Nordstream to the damn break
Then the west acts like everyone was just minding their business when Russia attacked. You don’t have to like Putin or Russia, but the West is not the good guys here, and is no more ethical today than when it repeatedly broke treaties with native Americans, set up coups around the world, interferes to this day in various foreign elections, and so on.
No one in their right mind would trust the US. So you can root for the Ukrainians all you want, but don’t pretend that the US is some ethical paragon that is a trustworthy broker to fix any problem in the world.
I never said or pretended the US is some ethical paragon.
Indeed, I have repeatedly stated the US fomented the Maiden Lane episode with John McCain traveling to Ukraine pitching Ukraine in NATO.
That does not mean Putin had a right to blast Ukraine with missiles does it?
But if no one should trust the US, it is idiotic to suggest or imply anyone should trust Putin, Russia, or China.
The US had no business in Iraq, Vietnam, or countless other things including sponsoring a coup in Iran.
That is the correct lens and there are very few of us, primarily Libertarians.
…Mish , Kameleon, keep your deluded opinions to yourself , it might be better for your blog ….
But Russian soldiers are trained in sambo and are very effective with shovels. It was Prigozhin’s sambo helicopter shovel thrower unit that took down those helicopters yesterday!
I think Putin comes out ahead. He has demonstrated he has full control of the government. He gets Prigozhin out of Dodge. If there were any Wagner troops loyal to Putin, they will have new “contracts”– probably lucrative ones — to continue the fighting. The rest will have a big black mark on their records and may spend the rest of their lives cleaning latrines. Prigozhin had celebrity status in Russia, so the “what to do about Prigozhin Problem” — an embarrassing loose cannon for months–is now solved. I’m sure, as part of the deal, Lukashenko will keep him on a very short leash, with no media access, maybe house arrest, maybe with no supply of Vodka. “Suicide” under mysterious circumstances is always an option. That possibility will keep him in rather high state of anxiety.
Now everyone, back to reporting Ukraine’s “counter offensive”, which is not going well for Ukraine, if it’s “going” at all.
What to do about Prigozhin? Have him come back to be Putin’s private chef. What could go wrong?
It’s going better than the ‘invasion’ innit?
Prigozhin has been making a lot of money off the conflict in the Donbass for a long time. He built a huge mercenary organization. So huge it was obviously a security threat to Russia, as these events have proven. The gentleman who made one of the video pleas to Prigozhin, then showed up in Rostov-on-don to discuss it further, is the Russian chief of military intelligence. He is the one who would have been advising Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov that Wagner was too big. The MOD has been insisting all Wagner troops sign a direct contract with the MOD for some time, likely due to these security concerns. Earlier, the FSB seized a large amount of cash from Prigozhin’s offices in another city. One important point is Prigozhin has been bickering with the MOD for months, and his allegations have been repeatedly proven, normally by events on the battlefield, to be entirely baseless. So it would appear the struggle for control came to a head and Prigozhin felt his business was being seized and he was making off with the payroll that had been provided by the MOD. The troops so loyal to him had their paychecks stolen by him while he sent them to a senseless and deadly clash and charges of mutiny. Lukashenko, lauded by both sides as a great mediator, is actually Prigozhin’s security guarantor. The Wagner troops don’t have a job without the war – and likely nobody took names when they headed to Rostov-on-don and they’ll all swear they remained loyal…and sign up with the MOD. There have been reports Shoigu also has a regiment of former prison inmates. Anybody super loyal to Prigozhin has likely already been identified or will be ratted out.
Russia did get some benefits. Apparently some sleeper cells in Russia and Belarus (I have only seen one video, from Belarus) activated, believing the balloon had really gone up. They are now outed and will be de-activated.
And I am entirely in agreement with Mr. Shedlock – while Prigozhin would not have lasted 72 hours in Rostov-on-don in a standoff, I don’t think his life expectancy is dramatically improved in Belarus. He is sure to attend Bulgakov’s Devil’s Ball soon enough.
I think once the Chechen Group was activated that was a serious threat to Wagner Group. Russian Army sucks but the Chechen loyalists to Putin were going to be rough sledding.
Prigozhin was loyal to Putin but look for him to live in his Dacha for a year and then get defenistrated “somehow”. I am not sure why US is obsessed with running the Russian military into the dirt. They have proven to be pretty crummy and very analog
It’s a cheap win. 5% of our military budget to slap down a wobbly old oligarchy. We’ve done worse.
The light sentence handed down to Prigozhin for mutiny in a time of war says volumes. This was theater, pure and simple. Seems arrest of cells who were supposed to sow rebellion in Moscow and in Bellarus took place. Russia probably played the feckless CIA and their attempt at internal rebellion. The CIA should probably stick to drug smuggling, revolutions in 3rd world countries and US election meddling, something that doesn’t require too much finesse.
Larry Johnson’s take,
https://sonar21.com/russias-academy-award-winning-performance-for-best-coup-prigozhin-scores-best-actor/
It’s weakness, not theater. If you stage a fake rebellion it risks turning into a real one. You don’t want to do that.
Read Larry’s article. He explores more details. But you should realize that deception is one of the main tools in war.
Putin isn’t as into you are you are into him.
I admit, I wish our leaders were half as impressive as Putin. Our leaders drove our country into a ditch. Putin rescued Russia from the wreckage of the drunkard Yeltsin.
The Russian Army has always been good at deception. In June of 1944 they tricked the Germans into defending the wrong area of the eastern front, which resulted in the destruction of 25 German Divisions during Operation Bagration! And recently in Bakhmut, the Russians feigned weakness and pretended ammunition shortages to draw more and more Ukrainian troops into the kill zone. Zelensky took the bait and poured countless thousands of men into a pointless meatgrinder which he eventually abandoned.
Rather than warn the Ukrainians of possible Russian deception, the mainstream media seems to buy into the hoaxes and promote them as fact.
If the Ukrainians were making strategic decisions based on what is in the media, they wouldn’t be Ukranians anymore.
What planet do you hail from?
“This was theater, pure and simple. Seems arrest of cells who were supposed to sow rebellion in Moscow and in Bellarus took place. Russia probably played the feckless CIA and their attempt at internal rebellion.”
x1000
To help continue Bidens losing war effort, MSM will be in full mental mode telling the public about supposedly internal strike in Russia about the war. Not gonna be surprised to eventually hear Nulands fingers in this.
Mish, youve been had! It is easier to fool someone than to convince them they have been fooled.
Toot toot! Kook alert!
One is seriously delusional to think Putin orchestrated this event and came out ahead.
“One is seriously delusional to think Putin orchestrated this event and came out ahead.”
Mark me down as delusional, but I find it hard to believe that Putin is not aware of Western attempts to undermine the Russian government. I guess surviving a coup attempt likely led with western help is not coming out ahead? I dont know if Putin orchestrated this event but I have no doubt that Putins counterintelligence is that incompetent.
Do you honestly believe that this coup attempt does not have American fingerprints on it? I find it hard to believe that any coup attempt in the world does not have western fingerprints involved.
It STINKS of the lizard people!
I think Prigozchin was hoping for a mass uprising in the streets, Boris Yeltsin style, that would without bloodshed catapault him to power, replacing Putin. I think he expected it would be Putin going into exile, ala Gorbachev. The widespread uprising of the people in 1991 was so large that even the Communists of the era realized they couldn’t kill everyone to maintain power. While the KGB might kill fellow citizens, the low enlisted conscripted soldiers would not.
The fact that this recent turn of events was a surprise to the West is embarrassing and shows how little we understand the inner workings of Russian politics. The same folks with their multibillion dollar spy apparatus were also dumbstruck by the fall of Soviet communism. Our political elite at the CIA and State Dept understand the new Russia no better than they understood the Soviet Union and like they were similarly clueless about Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. From my reading, Putin’s role is a kind of boss of bosses. His role was to cap corruption after the free-for-all in 1991 and to thwart the U.S. policy of trying to turn Russia into a helpless dependent debtor state like Argentina or Greece. His enduring ability to govern is based on how he successfully carried out that role. People went indoors when Wagner troops came to town as Putin asked them, not into the streets. At that point Prigozchin likely realized the coup was over. Twitter shows people cheering when Wagner troops departed cities. He couldn’t recreate 1991. Putin seems to have a Rooseveltist or Reaganesque kind of bond with the common man. They trust him.
Russian trolls are hilarious. In this comical post, the CIA bought off one of Putin’s most trusted cronies. Who else is on their payroll: Medvedev?
That was my thinking too. From the start I felt MI6 and the CIA were deeply involved.