To fight inflation, that Trump denies exists, comes another round of TACOs.
Understanding TACOs
The term TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. It was created by Financial Times writer Robert Armstrong. TACO describes a pattern of Trump announcing heavy tariffs on countries causing economic shock, panic and stock market hits after which Trump chickens out by reversing course with delays or reductions.
China hit back particularly hard with export controls on rare earth minerals and magnets causing Trump to back down of trial escalations on three occasions.
White House Fact Sheet
On New Years Eve, a White House Fact sheet proclaims Trump Adjusts Imports of Timber. Lumber, and Their Derivatives.
Today, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Act) to delay increases in tariffs for upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for another year.
Earlier this year, President Trump imposed tariffs on imports of timber, lumber, and their derivative products (wood products) to bolster American industry and protect national security.
President Trump has repeatedly used Section 232 tariffs to protect against threats to our national security and to strengthen manufacturing critical for our national and economic security, including on steel, aluminum, copper, and autos.
Lumber, furniture, and kitchen cabinets are a matter of national security along with Hollywood movies, steel, aluminum, copper, autos, and everything else.
Tariff TACOs, Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets
The increased tariffs, announced in September to target lumber-based products, were set to go into effect on Jan. 1, according to a White House statement published on New Year’s Eve.
Import duties on cabinets and vanities were meant to rise to 50% from 25%. Upholstered wooden products, things like sofas and armchairs, were to be slapped with a 30% tariff. The tariff level will now remain at 25% for all the affected items.
Trump promised in August to target the furniture industry for tariffs and bring back manufacturing to places like North Carolina’s Piedmont region, a once vibrant factory hub. The state has lost tens of thousands of furniture-making jobs in recent decades and has struggled to compete with Chinese imports.
Trump’s tariff threat in August sent shares tumbling in companies that import furniture, including Restoration Hardware parent company RH and Wayfair.
Since launching his trade war last year, Trump has watered down tariffs on a host of products and countries. In November, the president rolled back levies on beef, coffee, bananas and dozens of other agricultural goods to address concerns about the cost of living. Many of those food items are hard to produce in the U.S. Tariffs have contributed to significant price rises.
Consumer prices for household furnishings rose 4.6% in November from the year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. There was almost no inflation in the category at the start of the year.
Good News for Spaghetti Lovers
Bloomberg reports US to Cut Tariffs on Imported Pasta, Italy Foreign Ministry Says
The US decided to reduce controversial anti-dumping tariffs on some Italian pasta brands, Italy’s Foreign Ministry said.
The US Department of Commerce made the move before an anti-dumping investigation concludes in March, the ministry said in a statement. Rates that were provisionally set in September dropped to 2.3% for La Molisana pasta, about 14% for Garofalo and 9.1% for 11 other producers, from a previous retaliatory tariff of almost 92%.
La Molisana, Garofalo and others are facing anti-dumping tariffs after being accused of selling their products in the US at artificially low prices. The levies are in addition to the baseline 15% tariff already in place on most European Union exports to America.
The US Department of Commerce couldn’t immediately be reached for comment during the New Year holiday.
What? No Inflation?
Trump says inflation is a hoax. But if it is a hoax, then why the TACOs?
Regardless, the impact of tariffs is less severe than many have feared.
Q: Why have Tariffs been less damaging than initially feared?
A: It’s the TACOs, stupid (plus mitigation, hoarding, and wait-and-see actions).
Tariff Mitigation
From initial announcements of over 50 percent on many countries, and over 100 percent on China, the effective tariff rate is more more like 11.2 percent due to TACOs and mitigations.
Mitigation means rerouting trade from China to Vietnam, India, Mexico, or South Korea.
The US trade deficit with China is down but China’s exports to the rest of the world are up. Some of those imports from other countries are really from China.
Hoarding
Companies engaged in massive front-running of tariffs ahead of the announcements.
This resulted in corporate delays in passing along tariff-related price increases.
Those inventories are now exhausted and companies will start passing on costs.
Meanwhile, there have been so many TACOs and tariff exclusions that huge shocks have largely been avoided.
Small businesses, unable to switch supply chains or store inventory, were hit much harder by the gyrations.
Looking Ahead
I expect Trump to lose his reciprocal tariff tariff case in the Supreme Court.
However, Trump will be quick to resort to other means to reapply them.
The stock market will like refunds if the courts mandate them, but the bond market likely won’t.
I expect a Supreme Court ruling this month but the Court could punt the rebates back to the International Court or Trade. Also, Trump might make the rebate process difficult , resulting in delays.
The tariff case is Win-Lose, but there is a range of outcomes for refunds.
Polymarket
Trump’s odds of winning had a brief Polymarket surge to 32 percent on December 30, 2025 but are back to 26 percent now.
That is in line with my 75 percent chance of Trump losing.
Related Posts
September 6, 2025: Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Seriously Backfire Already
Tariffs did not and will not bring production back to the US.
December 1, 2025: Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close
American Signature, Inc., parent of VCF, filed for Bankruptcy. Fallout in 17 states.
November 16, 2025: What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?
The Supreme Court decision is not random. I discuss a framework.
Should be ‘reciprocal’ tariff.
Trump is clearly playing intensive 5D chess, with the finely calibrated multi-level variegated tariffs moving tectonically across many planes that are themselves subtly in motion, all masked to participants and traditional economists alike by feigned ignorance, puerile teen-ager trash talk, and deliberately nonsensical memes, all clues to a previously unattested orchestration of geo-political and global economic development.
Behold the Master at work.
Mish, happy new year. The biggest news are:
i) largest ever uprising in Iran (major from a geopolitical aspect),
ii) the Minnesota scandal, it’s associated scandal developing in Ohio
iii) what’s going on with a major oil pipeline in Canada
iv) huge unsold inventory of the heavily government-subsidized BYD Chinese cars
That’s the stuff that matters. Nobody cares about furniture and Trump doing what he said anyway (negotiate tariffs or get them up or down).
No conservatives believe that the extrajudicial maritime executions in international waters are even news-worthy, let alone the need to enforce laws Trump is breaking.
Taco Man
(To the tune of “Macho Man”)
Here he comes, he’s a Taco Man
Tariff king, with a flip-flop plan
Watch him spin, yeah he’s at it again
Taco Man!
Body tariffs, yeah, he’s buildin’ a wall (build that wall!)
China pays, but wait, not at all (not at all!)
Promised high, now he’s droppin’ it low
Taco Man, where’d the duties go?
Taco Man! He’ll tariff your rice (tariff rice!)
Taco Man! But then think it twice (think twice!)
Tweetin’ threats in the dead of night
Taco Man, changin’ left and right!
Tarif up! Tarif down!
Taco Man!
Mexico cars? Gonna slap on the fee (twenty-five!)
Then a deal, poof! It’s suddenly free (what a surprise!)
Steel and alum, he cranked it so high
Now he’s easin’ off, with a wink and a sigh
Taco Man! EU gets the hit (make ’em pay!)
Taco Man! Pause it, call it a day (walk away!)
Phony tough, but the flip is his game
Taco Man, tariffs ain’t the same!
Tarif up! Tarif down!
Taco Man!
Every week, yeah, he shifts the plot
Raise on soy, then it’s not so hot
Farmers cry, but he tweets “It’s fine!”
Taco Man, crossin’ every line
Taco Man! (Tarif flipper!)
Taco Man! (Policy stripper!)
Taco Man! (Deal or ditcher!)
Taco Man!
(Repeat and fade with crowd chants: Tarif up! Tarif down!)
Trump’s tariffs have given the US tools to adjust and tweak policy as needed. No other president had this power. Brilliant move Mr President.
China hit back particularly hard with export controls on rare earth minerals and magnets
==
actually i thought hardest kick was STOP IMPORTING soy beans by CHINA
Trump needed direct cash fusion in $billions for his supporters in mid west!
soy bean total market is a pittance compared to defenese and industrial/auto sectors which cannot survive without rare earths.
i yet to hear that MoD did not build milit. planes w/out Chinese stuff
did trump reduce gov deficit because NEW INVESTMENTS IN USA production , so more local production and more taxes?
no! USA deficit runs $2.2 trln in 2025!
=====
did trump reduce USA trade deficit which is about 1 trl? no!
As of late 2025, the cumulative goods and services deficit for the year reached approximately $767.2 billion
so it will be 1 trln by end of 2025!
Memory prices TRIPLED in less than 2 years. This is due to demand by AI data centers. A price spike will show up in 3-6 months from now when the chips are mounted on boards for smart-phones, laptops, tablets, smart-TV’s and cars. This is another source of inflation, and the Fed will be scratching its collective heads when it is officially reported. Consumers are going to have to make some tough choices: Eat or Smart-phone.
Data Centers are increasing their RAMs,whose prices are expected to rise.
Tariff repercussions?
Today, China’s “Strategic Metals” export restrictions go into effect.
Already banned because of Trump are rare earth exports to US defense contractors and their suppliers. In today’s addition, silver, copper, platinum and palladium exports are effectively banned.
JP Morgan saw this coming and reversed its 200 million ounce short position in silver and is now 750 million ounces long. With the recent explosion in the price of silver, several big banks are holding the bag on the massive short position that exists on the COMEX. Additionally the COMEX has written contracts for the delivery of about 500 million ounces of silver against its inventory of only 45 million ounces.
Stockpiles of silver are low and there is a deficit of 300 million ounces per year. If Samsung’s solid state silver ion anode free battery takes off in use and production it will triple the silver supply deficit in two years.
This silver production deficit is a very big deal…
THANKS for that analysis. much appreciated.
– The term TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. > I have always looked at this as Trump always getting close to, or what He Wanted. His Style is to ask for 100, expecting 50, but will be happy with 25. Come back for the other 25 later for the ultimate 50 that he wanted from the start. His RE Deals are notorious for this, as just one example of this. He is legendary for doing this throughout His Lifetime!
>> Let’s Not Mistake backing off of a deal, but for a deal still, yet a different and perhaps lesser deal, but “A Deal” which is in fact what Trump Was Ultimately Seeking IMO. Lumber could be an ex. Of this. He wanted Tariffs Period, so He went High (50%), settled Lower (25%), and Now Has Tariffs, like He had Expected.
– Q: Why have Tariffs been less damaging than initially feared? > Trump has settled for what He originally wanted to begin with, or close to it.
– A: hoarding, and wait-and-see actions. > More hoarding should have been done, and by more that wanted play in this arena. This was one of those times, where if you wish to play, buckle up, and jump in with both feet!! If not, then prepare to be left out potentially, and have it cost you more overall, than if you just did it.
– The term TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. > I have always looked at this as Trump always getting close to, or what He Wanted. His Style is to ask for 100, expecting 50, but will be happy with 25. Come back for the other 25 later for the ultimate 50 that he wanted from the start. His RE Deals are notorious for this, as just one example of this. He is legendary for doing this throughout His Lifetime!
======
you play fast and loose w/ phrase ‘what He Wanted’ !
========
did trump reduce gov deficit because NEW INVESTMENTS IN USA production , so more local production and more taxes?
no! USA deficit runs $2.2 trln in 2025!
=====
did trump reduce USA trade deficit which is about 1 trl? no!
As of late 2025, the cumulative goods and services deficit for the year reached approximately $767.2 billion
so it will be 1 trln by end of 2025!
alx
– did trump reduce gov deficit because NEW INVESTMENTS IN USA production , so more local production and more taxes? > Yes and No, as He is still working on it. Yes it’s going to indeed make a difference, but it has to occur over time, before it’s where it needs to be. This devastating financial problem, that was caused by others, needs time to fix itself. The Democrats made a mess out of things, and fixing it is going to be very difficult. Lots of money stolen, or given away, and is probably stolen/lost forever in many cases. I know they would like to claw much more back, but it’s been taken already…
– no! USA deficit runs $2.2 trln in 2025! > Talk to me in Mid-2026, and we shall see then where we stand. I am counting on being in a much Better place by then!!!
=This devastating financial problem, that was caused by others,
others?
you are not American, are you? have no clue bout USA plitics?
=====
USa congress is in charge of budget money, not president!!
most of years during Obama-biden Repubs had at least majority in lower house, sometimes controlled whole congress!
and yet VOTED FOR BUDGET AND spending like dems did.
alx
– This devastating financial problem, that was caused by others? > They are Democrats, it I was being kind trying not to pile on…
– you are not American, are you? > I’m about as Red/White/Blue as one can get. Long history of Family Military Members. Been to nearly all of the states in my Home Country of America!
– have no clue bout USA plitics? > Everything has to do with Politics Today, isn’t that at the crux of Most Issues now days? We are split as a Country 70/30 now, but it was 50/50 before the Dems blew themselves out of the water, fighting for Illegals Aliens OVER U.S. Citizens, and it’s been straight down hill ever since!
The SCOTUS can’t rule against this lunacy fast enough.
As a matter of national security, America cannot remain dependent on foreign pasta.
everybody who allowed this should be in jail!
/s
Lots of people should be in jail, but unfortunately we have a large swath of individuals, within our Country, that don’t like bail, happily allow anyone into Our Country, and like to let people go with a promise to come back, and crap like that…
Why put a GOPer in jail when Trump will pardon them for any reason?
that made me belly laugh.
You would expect a leader to encourage others to feed the people at the lowest possible cost.
Trump may chicken out but China’s strategic metals export bans went into effect today (Jan 1st). World leaders do not respect Trump because they know he is just a headline seeking pedophile.
Chinas global proportion of trade is increasing while Trump isolates the US through tariffs, threats and bullying.
Trump is economically illiterate and is destroying our long standing economic relationships and long term allegiances in the world. In Trumps tiny brain it is better to sell to 300 million Americans while China sells to all 8 billion people on earth.
No wonder gold and silver are doing so well, Trump is destroying our dollar through reckless deficit spending.
As a conservative I am not crazy about Trump either but you lose all credibility with the nonsense about”pedophile;” it immediately signals that you are not to be taken seriously.
TDS is real.
So is his pedophilia.
So Biden was protecting him? That’s weird.
CIA took over epstein sex ring to exploit and blackmail powerful men. basic stuff here. tons of Dems that biden would protect. like slick willie………this isn’t complicated.
Fine, ignore the evidence and me. I’m a former Republican, but I can read the evidence and have taken the blinders off and read some of the un-redacted evidence against Trump.
TWS is a state of willful denial at this point.
Trump quote ~ when asked on air about having sex with young girls by Howard Stern. “I have no age limit”.
Why did he fall out with Epstein? Because Epstein stole and trafficked one of Trumps underage girls from his club.
Potomac can defend his Pedo President all he wants, just makes him look pedo-sympathetic though, but hey he can have the look he wants!
=- headline seeking pedophile.
i dont think trump was in kid’s business!
but OBV HE WAS PAL W/ Epstein in business chasing young women-girls
trump likes them under 18-21 years old, and Epstein liked them under 14 years old !
Give the PedoPig something shiny, have your tariffs rescinded.
Shiny is his favorite color.
All gov/med/edu types grossly overestimate what the average American can consume. They are too insulated from the reality of the inflationary depression.
I am surprised that Trump has not yet reduced Aluminum tariffs. He first raised them to 25%, and then later to 50%. His claim was that this was necessary to raise US aluminum production.
So far, US aluminum producers are not increasing production or planning new smelters. The problem is that new smelters require planning on a 30 year time frame; massive investments; and guaranteed long-term low-cost electricity supply contracts.
We do not have the electricity available for a new smelter, let alone 8 of them (both Aluminum smelters and large scale data centers each requires roughly 1 GW of power, enough to power 750,000 homes). And even if we had the available electricity, it costs triple what smelters in other countries pay.
Next time try Google before spouting ^%$#^&%&.
A new smelter that is to double the US production is set to be operational at the end of 2026. A $4 billion investment.
A UAE aluminum giant could bring the US its first new aluminum plant since 1980 | Manufacturing Dive
Yes. I have mentioned this project several times here before.
Please note that this project has not yet completed its permitting, construction has not yet begun; no power agreement for electricity has been signed (because there isn’t enough electricity available, and certainly not at a low enough price); and no equipment has been ordered.
Once started, the timeframe to complete construction is 5-7 years. If construction begins at all. Which is not a guarantee. The article you referenced led you to believe that the smelter will be operational by the end of this year. Which is why you just made a fool of yourself. What it should have said is that they hope to begin construction by the end of this year.
I have been waiting for further developments on this project. But it seems to be stalled.
If it does eventually get built, it would double US production to 1.3 million tons. However, the US consumes 5 million tons of aluminum each year. So this project would only meet a small part of US demand.
The only way that this plant could be profitable is if Trump’s 50% tariffs on aluminum remain in place for the lifetime of the plant (30-40 years). Or if they can secure electricity at a guaranteed price of 4 cents/ kwh for 30-40 years
The project’s final go-ahead is subject to several conditions:
Power Supply: EGA is in advanced negotiations with Public Service Company of Oklahoma (PSO) to secure a long-term, competitive power supply agreement. The high energy demands of a smelter make this a crucial factor.State Incentives: The agreement is contingent on the Oklahoma Legislature approving a package of financial incentives, including $275 million in state funds and various tax exemptions. The state House has already passed legislation (HB2781) supporting the incentives.Feasibility Study: A final investment decision will be made after the completion of a feasibility study.
Also, this project was awarded 500 million from the Biden administration. Trump did not cancel the 500 million. So, if built, they get that incentive as well.
As a bonus question, where would they source the Bauxite?
Australia?
As you are aware, the US has almost no bauxite to make aluminum from. EGA was hoping to source the bauxite for this smelter from it’s mine in Guinea. However that mine has been seized by the government of Guinea. So EGA has lost its guaranteed supply and would have to source bauxite on the open market. Most likely sources would be Australia, Brazil, or Indonesia. This, of course, would further increase their cost of production for this smelter.
The government of Guinea seized the mine from EGA because EGA reneged on their promise to build a local alumina refinery.
Indeed! If Trump or the MAGA faithful had a clue they would realize that Aluminum production in the US makes no sense. Canada is perfectly situated to be our supplier at a far lower cost than we can make it.
Unless of course Trump destroys our relationship with Canada. That would create a problem…
Correct. It isn’t profitable for the private sector to produce aluminum in the US because we have to import the bauxite and then use very expensive electricity to smelt it. Which is why the industry has shrunk from 30 smelters to 4 over the last 45 years.
The best solution is to import our aluminum needs from US companies, like Alcoa, operating in Canada, using cheap electricity (currently long term contracts at 3-4 cents per kwh).
For those who insist on producing aluminum domestically, for national security reasons, then the government must subsidize the production, because it isn’t profitable. There are many ways to subsidize production but the easiest way is to guarantee low priced electricity for the life of the smelters. (0-4 cents per kWh).
To cover domestic consumption we need to build 8 new smelters. Each one requires 1GW of cheap power. Note that large data centers also require 1GW of power, as do large cities.
Sadly, our looming shortage of electricity makes domestic aluminum production a no go.
Putting 50% tariffs on imported aluminum does nothing to increase domestic production and simply raises costs for the thousands if US companies that need to use aluminum, making them less competitive internationally.
Nice try, but this is insignificant… Sheeh!
How much theoretical future production in 2027 and beyond are you going to credit as having been created in 2026? You have some creative accounting methods, bub.
trust the plan. our pedotus and fuhrer drumpf knows all. obvious /sarcasm. i love your analysis papa d.
So does the Donald favor data centers with fleeting amortization periods or aluminum ingots free of Canadian or Russian taint?
Or is this one of those famous bold “both/and” ventures?
I believe that Trump repeatedly says he wants the US to produce everything possible domestically as a matter of national security. It doesn’t seem to matter if it is data centers, aluminum production, barbie dolls or socks.
The problem with data centers and aluminum production is the amount of electricity they consume. A large data center needs 1 GW. So does an aluminum smelter. That amount of power is also needed for 750,000 homes.
I do not see Trump’s plan to increase electricity generation which is needed for these projects. In fact, his stated goal is to stop as much electricity generation as possible from solar and wind. Which he calls a scam.
So I don’t see how we can build as many data centers or aluminum smelters as he would like to see.
“Epstein? Epstein who?”
i went by Epstein’s childhood home day after christmas. i thought i saw him inside, alive and well, lighting his menorah
“Trade wars are Good and easy to win”
–Donald Trump
China is winning by a large margin because of Trumps tariffs. Ask Brazil and Argentina how easy it was to take market share from the American farmers because China does not want to deal with Trump.
You think those companies that sue and receive tariff reimbursement will pass it on to the consumers or should we sue the companies.
Some companies delayed passing on tariffs, partially passed on tariffs, etc.
It is literally impossible to say with certainty what happened and thus impossible to pass any direct rebates back to customers.
Some large importers like walmart may give out coupons or whatever, but in general, very doubtful.
I got a direct bill for the tariff on an order I placed that came from the Netherlands for a product not made here in the USA. I damn well expect a direct rebate when they are overturned.
not a shot in hell will tariffs collected by USG be reimbursed. i’ll eat my hat and yarmulke if it happens.
I am waiting for coffee to go down….
It flows through to the corporate officers, shareholders or consumers in one way or another.
Typical taco math. The tariffs could have been higher. As a result, he tries to convince the lemmings that he reduced them. Unfortunately, some will probably buy his bs.
His cult members would cheer him on even if he was raping and murdering their family members. He is their Orange Jesus and he can do no wrong.
LMMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seriously dude, cheer him on if he was raping and murdering their family?
You got some serious mental health derangement when it comes to Trump
Sure, Trump is an asshole. Your a bigger asshole for making such a stupid , I mean I cant even describe in words how over the top your comment is
If you really believe that a Trump supporter would cheer on a family member getting raped you are seriously fucked up in the head with TDS
Holy Moses
No, he’s a not a bigger asshole than trump.
many more twisted things have happened in history of mankind. you seem triggered. try a safe maga space.
David, it’s an exaggeration. But many people have watched their family members dragged away by ICE, and said, “Oh, well.”
ICE? Trump didn’t create our immigration laws.
He is merely enforcing them. Unlike the last guy.
He is not just enforcing the law.
Sending people to foreign prisons is not the law.
Harassing people based on their looks is illegal.
Blowing up boats and killing people clinging to boats are both illegal and the second is a war crime.
Unfortunately, pardoning drug lords who donate to Trump is not illegal but it should be.
Is it an exaggeration?
Trump has murdered survivors of his Venezuelan boat attacks while they cling to a floating portion of their destroyed boat ~ in violation of the Geneva Convention.
Most performances are being cancelled at the Kennedy Center because of Trumps bullying.
Bush and Obama won’t even shake his hand…
Canadian resources are now being exported to China instead of the US…
To quote Trump.
“I could shoot someone in the face on Fifth Avenue and not loose any voters”.
Another Trump quote ~ when asked on air about having sex with young girls by Howard Stern. “I have no age limit”.
Why did he fall out with Epstein? Because Epstein stole and trafficked one of Trumps girls…
BigBob pretty much nailed it!
David, You laugh your ass off? ~ ~ ~ Any more questions?
bully bully