The Xi-Trump call eased tensions, but Trump is still likely to do much damage. 
The Asia Times reports Xi calls Trump’s bluff and wins, time and time again
Odds are good that Xi will continue to drag things out, believing time is on China’s side. By appearing above the fray, Xi continues to outmaneuver Trump, who often seems to be negotiating with himself. China is also having some success positioning itself as the adult in the room as Trump lurches from one trade stance to another, hour by hour.
“The overall objectives of the trade aggression, other than the display of raw power, are as muddled as ever,” says Arthur Kroeber, an analyst at Gavekal Research.
Kroeber adds that “fresh hostilities between the US and China show that the many questions left hanging after the Geneva ceasefire in mid-May still have no satisfactory answers. It’s not clear whether US trade policy is being run by Trump, his trade negotiators or his national security team.”
“I’m operating under the assumption that some major elements of Trump’s tariff policies will remain intact in one form or another,” says Stephen Roach, economist at Yale University.
“Hopefully, they won’t be as severe as threatened earlier, but they will nonetheless impose meaningful taxes on most US imports, with an especially steep penalty on those coming from China.”
Roach adds that “I still suspect that tariffs surviving the current legal skirmishes are likely to be onerous enough to have negative impacts on global trade, with especially adverse implications for the US and China.”
Trouble is, Roach says, “in this climate, companies have no idea how to scale and source inputs for their multinational production platforms. The planning exercise has become an oxymoron, with serious consequences for the real economy.”
The bottom line, Roach notes, is that a “protracted period of policy uncertainty essentially freezes business decision-making on capital spending and hiring, with negative repercussions for income generation and consumer demand; consumer purchasing power should be further constrained by tariff-related price shocks. Uncertainty remains the enemy of decision making.”
Beijing “successfully called Trump’s bluff,” notes Mark Williams, economist at Capital Economics. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer notes that Trump’s talk of a “total reset” with China is really his “biggest climbdown to date.”
Since the 1980s, Trump observers have known that nothing angers him more than being perceived as the “loser” in any negotiation. This partly explains why he signed — and loudly touted — a trade agreement with the UK, an economy with which Washington has a trade surplus. It betrayed a desperation to highlight a trade deal of any kind, no matter how minor.
The Planning Exercise Has Become an Oxymoron
I could not agree more.
Trump is going to lose his totally destructive reciprocal tariff idea, but he still can and will inflict a lot of damage.
Roach’s base case that “some major elements of Trump’s tariff policies will remain intact in one form or another,” is the same as mine.
But there is a lot of difference between huge reciprocal tariffs on every country to Trump’s newly refined focus on steel and aluminum.
That said, small businesses are going to be hammered hard, and big businesses will be stymied, not knowing whether to zig or zag.
Related Posts
I discussed the Irony of the Year on June 4 in Automakers Consider Moving Some Parts Production to China
China has a magnet stranglehold that causing some seemingly strange discussions.
Understanding Rare Earths
China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly.
Two-TACO Trump Day
TACO Trump is a term coined by a Financial Times columnist. It stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
On June 5, I noted a Two-TACO Trump Day on His Call to Xi Over Rare Earth Elements
Trump is hyping up his call with China’s Xi. But chalk up 2 more TACOs.
Good post here:
Steve became a CCP apologist many years ago.
For anyone interested in seeing the results of Trump’s tariff and reshoring polices there is a comprehensive list at the following link. I had AI condense the list to post here. And he’s only been in office for six months.
——————————————————
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/trump-effect-a-running-list-of-new-u-s-investment-in-president-trumps-second-term/?utm_source
• Project Stargate — $500B: AI infrastructure (SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle)
• Apple — $500B: U.S. manufacturing and training
• NVIDIA — $500B: U.S. AI supercomputers over 4 years
• Micron Technology — $200B: Boise, ID and Manassas, VA chip fabs
• IBM — $150B: U.S. growth and manufacturing over 5 years
• TSMC — $100B: U.S. chip manufacturing
• Johnson & Johnson — $55B: Manufacturing, R&D, and tech
• Roche — $50B: Manufacturing/R&D; 1,000+ jobs
• Bristol Myers Squibb — $40B: Manufacturing and R&D over 5 years
• Eli Lilly — $27B: Doubling U.S. manufacturing capacity
• ADQ + Energy Capital — $25B: U.S. data centers and infrastructure
• Novartis — $23B: 10 U.S. plants; 4,000 jobs
• Hyundai — $21B: $5.8B steel plant in Louisiana, 1,500 jobs
• John Deere — $20B: U.S. manufacturing over 10 years
• DAMAC Properties — $20B: U.S. data centers
• CMA CGM — $20B: Shipping/logistics; 10,000 jobs
• Sanofi — $20B: Manufacturing and R&D over 5 years
• Amazon (PA) — $20B: Cloud expansion; 1,250 jobs
• Venture Global LNG — $18B: LNG plant in Louisiana
• GlobalFoundries — $16B: Chip production in NY and VT
• Gilead Sciences — $11B: Boost to U.S. manufacturing
• AbbVie — $10B: Four new manufacturing plants
• Amazon (NC) — $10B: New data centers in North Carolina
• Pratt Industries — $5B: 5,000 manufacturing jobs in 4 states
• GlobalWafers — $4B: U.S. silicon wafer production
• Thermo Fisher — $2B: Enhancing U.S. manufacturing and R&D
• Merck & Co. — $9B: $1B NC plant + new DE biologics facility
• Clarios — $6B: Expand domestic manufacturing
• Stellantis — $5B: Reopen Belvidere, IL manufacturing
• Stellantis (Detroit) — $388M: New megahub in Detroit
• UCB — $5B: New U.S.-based drug factory
• Amazon (Rural) — $4B: Jobs and growth in small towns
• GM — $4B: Shift production from Mexico to U.S.
• Regeneron — $3B: Biotech production in North Carolina
• Kraft Heinz — $3B: U.S. factory upgrades
• NorthMark — $2.8B: Supercomputing facility in South Carolina
• Kimberly-Clark — $2B: New facilities in OH and SC
• Chobani — $1.7B: NY and ID dairy expansions
• Corning — $1.5B: Michigan expansion, 1,500 jobs
• Carrier — $1B: 4,000 new manufacturing jobs
• GE Aerospace — $1B: 5,000 jobs across 16 states
• Anduril — $1B: Autonomous weapons facility in Ohio
• Williams Intl. — $1B: Aviation gas turbine facility in FL
• Amgen — $900M: Ohio-based expansion
• Merck Animal Health — $895M: Kansas manufacturing
• GM (Tonawanda) — $888M: Propulsion plant investment
• Schneider Electric — $700M: U.S. energy infrastructure
• GE Vernova — $600M: 1,500 new manufacturing jobs
• Abbott — $500M: Facilities in IL and TX
• AIP + Silicon Ranch — $500M: Solar energy investment
• Diageo — $415M: New plant in Alabama
• Lego — $366M: Distribution center in Virginia
• Bel Group — $350M: Expansion in SD, ID, WI; 250 jobs
• Eaton — $340M: SC transformer facility
• Anheuser-Busch — $300M: U.S. plant upgrades
• Siemens — $285M: 900 new skilled jobs
• Clasen Chocolate — $230M: New VA plant; 250 jobs
• Fiserv — $175M: 2,000 fintech jobs in Kansas
• Paris Baguette — $160M: Texas manufacturing plant
• Siemens Healthineers — $150M: Move ops from Mexico to CA
• JBS USA — $135M: Sausage plant in Iowa
• TS Conductor — $134M: SC conductor facility; 500 jobs
• ABB — $120M: Expand production in TN and MS
• Saica Group — $110M: Packaging facility in Indiana
• Hotpack — $100M: First U.S. plant in NJ
• Charms (Tootsie) — $97.7M: Expansion in Tennessee
• Toyota — $88M: Hybrid expansion in West Virginia
• AeroVironment — $42.3M: Defense plant in Utah
• Saint-Gobain — $40M: NY manufacturing facility
• Sygene — $36.5M: Biologics facility in Baltimore
• Asahi — $35M: Boost Wisconsin production
• Valbruna — $28M: Steel plant in Indiana
• Cyclic Materials — $20M: Rare earth recycling in Arizona
• Guardian Bikes — $19M: Bike factory in Indiana
• AMG Minerals — $15M: Chrome facility in Pennsylvania
• NOVONIX — $4.6M: Battery facility in Tennessee
• LGM Pharma — $6M: TX expansion
• ViDARR — $2.69M: Defense optics in Virginia
• United Arab Emirates committed to investing $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over the next decade.
• Qatar committed to generating $1.2 trillion in an economic exchange between the two countries.
• Japan announced a $1 trillion investment in the U.S.
• Saudi Arabia committed investing $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years.
• Taiwan announced a pledge to boost its U.S.-based investment.
Nice list. Personally, I’m very much looking forward to Anduril going public.
I looked up Anduril and saw that it’s about defense and AI and thought you might find this video interesting. The CEO was interviewed by Steve Bannon. In case you didn’t return to a previous topic I wanted you to know that I read your nice comment to me and thanked you for it in a reply over there. I wish this site had a way to automatically know if someone has replied to you, currently you have to remember what topic you wrote in and then go back and check to see if anyone replied. I used to write on Disqus, although I haven’t for a long time, but as I remember they have an easy way to see replies in a separate section of the site under your profile area.
https://rumble.com/v6ucuoh-full-battleground-6525.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
WarRoom Battleground EP 783: Manufacturing Renaissance; Next Generation Of Digital Manufacturing
—————————————–
This is the link for WarRoom and if you select Videos and then Filter and then Over 20 Minutes, you can see the list of complete shows instead of the shorter clips that they list.
https://rumble.com/c/BannonsWarRoom
You’re very welcome.
Yes, this site has a one URL limit per post, as far as I know.
I don’t watch a lot of Bannon’s stuff, only because there’s so much to consume.
It’s good to see that he’s still growing his brand through critical analysis of all sorts of important issues.
Keep the posts you are interested in following open in tabs. I have something like 60 tabs open in Chrome right now. Two are from Mish.
Posts die quickly here. After a couple days, most are dead and gone for further comments.
This is my second attempt at replying to you, my first post had two links in it so maybe that’s why I got the Awaiting For Approval message. I’ll try posting this without the links and later post the links separately.
———————————————–
I looked up Anduril and saw that it’s about defense and AI and thought you might find this video interesting. The CEO was interviewed by Steve Bannon. In case you didn’t return to a previous topic I wanted you to know that I read your nice comment to me and thanked you for it in a reply over there. I wish this site had a way to automatically know if someone has replied to you, currently you have to remember what topic you wrote in and then go back and check to see if anyone replied. I used to write on Disqus, although I haven’t for a long time, but as I remember they have an easy way to see replies in a separate section of the site under your profile area.
Here is the first of the two links I posted that might have been the reason for the Waiting For Approval message.
——————————————————
https://rumble.com/v6ucuoh-full-battleground-6525.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
WarRoom Battleground EP 783: Manufacturing Renaissance; Next Generation Of Digital Manufacturing
Here is the second of the two links I posted that didn’t get through the filter.
——————————————————–
This is the link for WarRoom and if you select Videos and then Filter and then Over 20 Minutes, you can see the list of complete shows instead of the shorter clips that they list.
https://rumble.com/c/BannonsWarRoom
I’ll wager that 90% of these never come to fruition during Trump’s 2nd term.
Totally agree. Analysis is spot on and that can be verified by the MAGA clowns that got triggered in the comment thread. They just can’t handle the truth!
Oil up 7% with Mideast mayhem and inflation back on the table
Keep giving us what we want, the transparent truth!
Tariff policy will be a series of tantrums and flip flops.
When Stephen Roach talks … Wall Street listens.
20 years ago maybe.
The deportations are over. Israel-Iran is now the lead. Don’t bury the lead Mish. You have 4 posts since the previous Israel-Iran post. Trump has his hands full. Russia is siding with Iran against Israel. Pakistan will as well. Israel has a multi-week operation going. They thought the iron dome would protect them but Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles and landed several.
Israel can die in the fire they started.
I mentioned more than a few times that Israel/Iran is Trump’s ace in the hole against Xi in the tariff war.
All Trump has to do is unleash Israel on Iran and cause chaos on the oil industry (ideally closing the straight of Hormuz). China *must* have that oil in the same way the US *must* have rare earths. Only the US military can keep it open and they’ll do so for rare earths 🙂
Funny that after former Isis jihadis took over Syria, with the help of that evil Islamic state Turkey, who also has the largest army in Nato, it kind of put the kabosh on Russian air and naval bases there while at the same time, clearing their former ally’s airspace in Syria for Israeli jets. Israel has aprox. 1.3 million Russian speakers. That’s a danger for the poor Russians. Good luck with that. The Ayatollahs are going the way of Assad, Hamas, Hezbollah.
On my way to London. RAF has scrambled jets to the middle east. Iran is threatening US and UK bases in the middle east if the US UK and alies defend Israel. This is escalating very quickly. Israel says the operation in Iran will take weeks not days
If Iran doesn’t attack US bases, Israel will do it for them.
Give me Liberty or give me more arms and money?
What has Trump solved the problems?
Ukraine crisis
Gaza crisis
Iran nuclear crisis
Now Iran – Israel crisis
Budget deficit crisis
Trade deficit – Tariff crisis
Immigration crisis
They are still be there till he leave his office.
Fool indeed.
Well slap me upside the head! Who knew?
Asia Times & WSJ – OMG! The bias
To balance things out, start looking over at Breitbart & give us some of John Carney’s insights on tariffs.
At least attempt to balance the commentary just a smidge.
Please!
So even the credibility of Stephen fucking Roach is put into question if he dares to blaspheme against the orange messiah.
It is a cult.
I’m primarily speaking out against Mish’s lack of reporting even the smallest amount of information from the other side. That’s not balance journalism, IMHO.
I know very little about Roach, but I certainly read a lot of the enormous bias over on WSJ.
Below, I detail my main grievance with Roach’s points from the article which I do admit has an overall sound reasoning to it.
Steve Roach was kissing CCP ass 20 years ago. Now go back to sleep.
The MAGA murders in MN prove that it is a dangerous cult.
If you have something useful to add to the conversation, you should do so. What is Breitbart or John Carney or whomever saying? There is plenty of posting space here!
Correct
Thanks
Feel free to read some of the things Carney is saying about Trump’s economic policies.
John Carney, Author at Breitbart
You dont want balance. You want lies.
Nope. I want Mish to engage is at least a modicum of balance.
It’s his site, so he can write stuff however he wants.
But I’m also allowed to point out what I feel is an imbalance.
When everything leans to one side or the other, usually that means the scales of truth are not in balance.
Legit!
What exactly do you disagree with?
“By appearing above the fray, Xi continues to outmaneuver Trump, who often seems to be negotiating with himself. China is also having some success positioning itself as the adult in the room as Trump lurches from one trade stance to another, hour by hour.”
It’s obvious that Xi & Trump have different styles. In fact, I can’t say that I ever read about anything Xi has said. No worries there. His underlings certainly are capable having their Stephen Miller moments.
The big picture is that Trump is having success with negotiating with China. You may not like his style which is what Roach is opining about above. However, admittedly Roach does give a reasonable explanation of what may lie ahead.
But the fact remains that you post all sorts of content from the WSJ and lately the Asian Times.
Again, where’s the balance?
What’s wrong with seeking out opinions from knowledgeable people who agree with what Trump is trying to do. I’m not saying it should be 50/50, but at least spend SOME time providing insight into the counter argument. ANYONE who spends 100% of their time bashing someone without looking at what his supporters are saying is not engaging in proper journalism, IMHO. To do so, you have to report both sides.
I would bet that if you did a poll back on Jan 20th as to what US economic / trade would be like as we head into July the vast majority of your readers would have predicted a MUCH WORSE situation than we currently find ourselves in.
Whether you or your readers like it or not, Trump is having enormous success with what he campaigned on. Have I criticized Trump on your site? Yes, absolutely and will continue to do so.
Narcissistic stupidity isn’t a style.
Coming from the guy who calls himself, TacoMan.
Blinded bias isn’t any better, dude!
How can you defend a POTUS that is mentally ill. It may not be his fault that he can’t control himself but pity is one thing, defending the indefensible is another.
“The big picture is that Trump is having success with negotiating with China”
Really? How is “success” defined in your world?
“A handshake of a framework”?
The deal is “we are back to where we were two months ago”?
Meanwhile China has formed significant alliances with the ASEAN countries, the Middle East countries that Trump so recently visited, and every African country. China has found that the US is totally dependent upon China for significant products and has tugged on that leash and Trump folded. Meanwhile Trump is operating on the idea of a laughable “dollar for dollar” trade balance that has never worked. Trump’s power projection consist of begging Putin, Xi, Netanyahu and Khamenei to make his life easier, and begging Middle East countries for private resort deals and cast-off planes. Even his grand birthday parade was a sad, boring and out-of-step bust when compared to ny tinpot dictatorships.
Guy is all sizzle and no steak
“Guy is all sizzle and no steak”
Well said but it’s more like all fart than sizzle.
Assuming it holds, 55% tariffs will force some companies, especially strategic goods, to begin onshoring / friendly shoring manufacturing. That’s the primary goal of what Trump is doing. Ann’s list above is proof in the pudding that it happening.
China has been forming these alliances for years, so stop acting like this is something new.
Again, whether you like his style or policies. America is VASTLY better off going forward than had Comrade Kamala been elected.
AMERICA MUST, I REPEAT MUST, DECOUPLE FROM CHINA IN STRATEGIC GOODS. THERE IS NOT PLAN B. IT’S BEYOND CRITICAL THAT AMERICA BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS PROCESS. THERE IS NOT OTHER OPTION.
It’s that simple. Of course, we can argue of substance of Trump’s negotiating style which I agree is not optimal. But posters like you are completely opposed to just about anything Trump will do which is fine. That’s your right, but I know for a fact that my life will be better off if he succeeds on all the fronts that he’s facing uphill battles on.
Gos, whodathunkit, a government lead by a chaos master leads to a difficulty in business planning
Let me look at Breitbart so they can tell me what a masterful stroke the latest bit of chaos has been
Russia, Iran, & radical socialist siding with illegals are the groups creating the chaos. ICE is not creating chaos. They are doing their jobs & enforcing federal immigration laws.
What in the hell did ANYONE including businesses think this was going to look like, when Joe Biden let in upwards of 14M illegals into the USA in four years? How bad do you think it’s going to get with Trump having to fight at least 1,000 cities with sanctuary laws on the books?
Like seriously, please outline for everyone here what the great benefits to America are with regards to open borders? How is having hundreds of thousands of illegals, Chinese nationals, radical islamists running around in the US awaiting orders to attack good for America? It’s absolutely ludicrous.
All Trump is doing is executing on his mandate:
Begin the process of mass deportations, cut taxes (which I’m not a big fan of), grow the economy, end DEI policies, not get America engaged in new conflicts while also supporting our allies
And he’s failing at all of them.
While the tariffs flip flops are clearly creating chaos for some, anxiety for others trying to make plans, the economy remains fairly resilient, bond market stable. Is it possible that this horrible economy Trump inherited from Biden was actually fairly strong and is able to handle these headwinds. I think as long as the economy hums along, most Trump supporters will hang in there even with the chaos. Or are we reaching a tipping point?
Personally, I think the main thing Trump has done wrong was spiking potential tariffs to 145%. I think the original levies would have been sufficient to bring China to the table. But I recognize Trump does have a propensity to say & do outlandish things. But the reality is that China facing 145% tariffs probably played some role with bringing them to the table. This deal has come well ahead of what most here would have predicted. Inquiring minds will never know.
This deal is worse than the one we had before.
55% tariffs is not a worse deal, TacoMan.
how do you figure 55%? current new china specific tariffs are only 20% fentanal tariffs +10% across the board tariffs (which will get struck down by the courts likely) = 30%?
He’s losing support for greenlighting and facilitating Israel’s attack on Iran. Deeper involvement against Iran will cost him even more. The gay midget senator from South Carolina is not popular among Trump’s base.
HAHA! In your dreams. At least for now, America has not fired a single missile at Iranian territory.
Jordan, Syria, Iraq & Saudi Arabia are all likely allowing Israeli war plan to freely traverse their countries to attack Iran. They all want more stability in the region. If Israel is able to thread the needle, I would expect them establish normalized relations with Saudia Arabia by sometime next year and Syria may well follow as might Iraq.
be that as it may, Israel is well on its way to sending Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions back to the stone ages, and the ME will be much safer & more stable as the result of Israel’s action with support from the US.
If there’s a turn for the worse, rest assured Israel via Mossad, Shin Bet & the IDF will take out the Ayatollah. And the Ayatollah knows this. He’s completely boxed it; however, that doesn’t mean Iran can’t inflict grave damage to Israel. Far from it. The next several days will be critical.
You said that about the Taliban, but all of the prayers by all of the rabbis and all of the priests and the trillion dollar US military budget proved to be a recipe for failure.
Maybe instead of writing anti Trump stories, the nation would be better served by rallying around our President and asking relevant questions like “will Iran attack US assets?” and “how many terrorists do we need to eradicate from our former open border policy?”
Another valid question from the current tinderbox is “who has 5.56 on sale so we can protect ourselves?”
A lot of hype about the terrorist, but interestingly recent crime statistics show crime is down so if they are here, not really active. How many people protested today and largely peaceful except in LA. I think something else is going on there.
Because they aren’t running around the streets like knuckleheads, the CIA has been saying they are planning a large scale attack against first responders. Imagine no police or fire, not good
Lost me at “CIA has been saying”.
As to your last question, I have found https://ammoseek.com/ to be of great value for needs,
The cultists are out in masse today.
Oh please. Antifa, radical illegals, crazy Karens, Gavin Newsom, Karen Bass, et al are not rational minded people.
His first two questions are legitimate concerns. You’re the one throwing around the term “cult” like its cracker jacks.
“A “cult” generally refers to a group, often with religious, philosophical, or spiritual beliefs, that is characterized by extreme devotion to a particular leader, object, or goal. Cults often employ manipulative and controlling tactics to maintain the allegiance of their members. The term can be controversial and is sometimes used to describe groups outside the mainstream, especially those with unconventional or potentially harmful practices.
Here’s a more detailed breakdown:
Key Characteristics:
Controlling Practices:
Cults may employ psychological manipulation and coercive tactics to control members’ thoughts and behaviors.
Secrecy and Isolation:
Some cults operate with secrecy and may isolate members from outside influences.
Charismatic Leadership:
Cults are often led by a charismatic individual who exerts significant influence over followers.
Controversy and Usage:
However, some groups labeled as cults may be seen by their members as legitimate religious or spiritual movements.
The distinction between a “cult” and a legitimate religious or spiritual group can be subjective and based on individual perspectives and societal views.
The term can be used to describe groups with extreme devotion to a celebrity or a particular idea, not just religious or spiritual groups.
In some cases, a group labeled a cult may be seen as a threat to mainstream society.
Unconventional Beliefs:
Cults may have unusual or extreme religious, spiritual, or philosophical beliefs.”
MAGA is a cult.
Sure. I’m in a cult, in your opinion at least. OMG, I’m going to go in the corner & cry. Boohoo.
Are you ready to join your brothers in MN? Trump must go, MAGA must end.
yeah, rallly around a man who regularly call myself and millions others marxist lunatics? He is easily the most toxic and partisan politician i have ever seen in any developed country in my life. He should expect nothing but hate and disgust from us untill the day he flops on the ground dead.;
– The Xi-Trump call eased tensions. > True.
– but Trump is still likely to do much damage. > “Likely” = “Unlikely” In THIS scenario.
– Odds are good that Xi will continue to drag things out, believing time is on China’s side. > I had not realized that “Time” was on China’s side in any way? In fact, I was under a strong impression that China was internally “Pressed” for Time?
– China is also having some success positioning itself as the adult in the room. > With not agreeing to do anything, but place demands on Trump, Who lurches from one trade stance to another, hour by hour, as China keeps changing things to try and find one that will work for them, but there isn’t one any longer.
– “I’m operating under the assumption that some major elements of Trump’s tariff policies will remain intact in one form or another,” says Stephen Roach, economist at Yale University. > Totally, and more than many think IMO. The Leverage with China, is clearly in the U.S. Favor, but after further discussion, I can see them settling on something Trump will agree to do.
– Beijing “successfully called Trump’s bluff,” notes Mark Williams. > Trump made no such bluffs? The only call is China to Negotiate, and that is coming and very soon IMO. China bought themselves some time, while Trump was happy to do so for minerals and such, but leverage is with Trump, and they Both Know This…
– Trump is going to lose his totally destructive reciprocal tariff idea, but he still can and will inflict a lot of damage. > Very Possible
– Roach’s base case that “some major elements of Trump’s tariff policies will remain intact in one form or another,” is the same as mine. > Agreed
– But there is a lot of difference between huge reciprocal tariffs on every country to Trump’s newly refined focus on steel and aluminum. > Agreed
– That said, small businesses are going to be hammered hard, and big businesses will be stymied, not knowing whether to zig or zag. > Small Yes & Big Yes “IF” the recession “Hits the Middle Class” as hard as expected. Trump and His Administration, is currently doing everything possible to assure that this doesn’t occur. Don’t be surprised, I definitely won’t, if we see some of DOGE $ Saved, sent out to the Middle Class as Some of it was their Taxpayer $!! It’s ALL about Leverage and Trump and Trumps Administration “Has It” IMO.
I always prefer to bet on a fixed race.
“Reciprocity” for Trump, according to Lutnick, is that Vietnam and the US sell each other the exact value of goods.
Not sure how that would turn out with any country.
China got the US by the short hairs with rare earth metals that will be the forever leash (at least until the US develops capacity).
It is in their interest to discourage US production and refining to keep the US on the leash for as long as possible and count on the unsteady tiller of the US leader.
Taco is a legend in his own mind and probably believes his own bs.
TACO BOBS
He smells his own fart and eats his own shit.
I’ve followed Steven Roach since his early days at MS. He’s insightful and thoughtful. Thanks for the article.
buzness guy no good for bizness
….Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick referred to the agreement as a “handshake for a framework.” Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will now have to approve the framework, Lutnick said. That step would appear to mean there were some concessions that both leaders did not give their negotiating teams authority to negotiate away.
“Once that’s done, we will be back on the phone together and we will begin to implement this agreement,” Lutnick said. “The two largest economies in the world have reached a handshake for framework.”…
Reached a handshake for framework
Oh my, such talent
And then to be legal, doesn’t Congress need to approve it?