Please consider Ursula Von Der Leyen Signals She Will Not Reopen Brexit Talks.
Ursula von der Leyen, the nominee to lead the European commission said she still hoped the UK would remain in the European Union, while indicating she had no intention to renegotiate the withdrawal deal agreed by Theresa May and EU leaders.
“I think it’s a good deal, but it is your responsibility and your noble task to sort this out,” she told a British Liberal Democrat MEP in the European parliament, in her first public comments on Brexit.
In a thinly veiled message to the Tory leadership candidates Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson, Von der Leyen said the tone and attitude with which Brexit happens were crucial, adding: “Brexit is not the end of something, Brexit is the beginning of future relations and it’s of absolute importance that we have good cooperation.”
“I think the backstop is of utmost importance and we absolutely know how crucial this nonexistent border is for you,” she said in response to an Irish MEP. “Having the backstop in the Brexit deal is precious, important and has to be defended.”
Non-News or Fake News?
The Guardian story is either non-news or fake news for several reasons.
- She might not get the position. I have about a 30% chance that she won’t.
- Assume she does. What did you expect her to say? She made a statement she was guaranteed to make. There is as much value in her claim as stating 1+1=2.
- It is not even her call to reopen Brexit talks. She could not do that if she wanted to.
Point 1 is speculation on my part, but I do suspect she will hand out enough bribes to the Greens to get nominated.
Point 3 is fake news. It is not her call to reopen talks.
Point 2 is the strongest point. She made a mandatory statement that conveys virtually no information.
No Information Conveyed
Ursula von der Leyen can oppose a change but it is not her call.
No one on the EU side will ever admit they are willing to talk until the talks take place.
Can They Change the Backstop?
It’s possible, but highly unlikely. It would take all 27 nations to agree.
The backstop might not change, but there could be a timeline on it or other changes to mitigate it.
Talks?
Talks are a given. Von der Leyen made an interesting, and correct observation:
“Brexit is not the end of something, Brexit is the beginning of future relations and it’s of absolute importance that we have good cooperation.”
The EU can decide to cooperate, or not.
I propose they will, for reasons mentioned previously.
- Ireland will be in a world of hurt. The estimated first-year to Irish GDP is 4.1%. It would be unlike the EU to purposely throw another EU member under the bus.
- European exports to the UK will crash.
- Germany is already smarting from a global slowdown. Merkel is no longer call the shots, but she is open to talks.
- If the EU will not budge at all, Johnson may apply more pressure by saying he will not even pay the breakup fee. That extra money the EU desperately needs for its budget or it will have to raise taxes or cut expense.
Saying vs Doing
We know what politicians say they will do, but we do not know what they will really do when the time comes.
The EU never believed May would walk.
In about one month the EU is likely to find out Johnson really intends to walk.
At that point, the ballgame changes.
The open issue is whether there is enough time to get all 27 nations to agree to do anything. There will be a very intense month of intense negotiations.
No Extension
An extension will not cut it. Johnson has to deliver Brexit by Oct 31.
I will make a small allowance of a 1-month+ extension on a pair of requirements.
- There is an agreement in principle by all EU nations and they need an extra month or so to implement some parts of it.
- There is no chance of a UK election within the extension period that can undo the agreement.
Binary Choice
- Revised Deal
- No Deal Brexit
The decision is not up to UK MPs, the Queen, elections, or referendums.
The decision is up to the EU.
“Brexit is not the end of something, Brexit is the beginning of future relations and it’s of absolute importance that we have good cooperation.”
Does the EU mean that or not?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The reason the EU will negotiate is that 39 billion pounds is a lot of money. They want it, and if BoJo holds firm that he won’t pay it until there is a deal (whether pre-Brexit or post-Brexit), the EU will come to the table and negotiate.
39 billion divided by 27 is chump change. Do you know over how many years the payments are due? It works out at £1.20 per person in the UK. I’ll leave you to work out how much 39 billion per person is for the 450 million EU citizens.
So the EU wont mind not getting it then.
Got it at last?
39 Billion is a bit more divided between 66 Million people in the UK. It makes almost 600 pounds per person…
My bad. It is £1.67 per per person per day. Chump change.
Mish, the UK is dysfunctional. The EU is united. Why are British politicians running around like headless chickens? Why is the UK falling apart?
Round objects!
Who programmed you?
UK has already exited the UK according to the law.
Brits are activity-oriented, even at the cost of results, and Europeans are just lazy and cocksure of their superiority.
Do you mean that the Brits run around in ever decreasing circles until they knock each other out?
‘the EU is united’ …..hahahaha , you don t believe that yourself do you? .. have you actually followed the ‘democratic’ top jobs farce in recent weeks ? United, he says ….LOL ! DOWN with the insane EU circus of outrageously overpaid, totally superfluous and worthless, parasitic political clowns and legally corrupt freeloaders!!
That’s no way to talk about Farage, you might get sued.
Ms. von der Leyen (some jokingly call her Ursala bin Lyin) knows it is prudent to keep a “no deal” position in the quiver until it comes time to do some actual negotiating rather than take that arrow out of the quiver and toss it aside.
Very depressing listening to people who think that no deal is a good idea. Those same people struggle to say one single thing that is a practical benefit of leaving the EU. I’ll give you two just very personal impacts of a no deal. First my son who is in French school will get kicked out the day after no deal; second the UK manufacturing company I work for will not be able to ship products to the rest of the world (even ignoring EU) as the UK does not have tariff agreements in place with anybody. Yes 6 months later thing may settle down but I don’t see why individuals have to suffer for the ideological nonsense of others.
No, you have swallowed the gloom lock stock and barrel.
Your son will not be kicked out of French school, and your company will not stop exporting to the countries it already does including the EU. It may have to make some minor adjustments at best. Anyone who tells you anything different is flat out lying. Put your fear away and look for the opportunities.
Who programmed you?
Don’t be a drone.
Go on then you tell me how Brexit will be positive for you….a single practical example. Absolutely fine for the well off to have a little bit of pain. You try telling that to the companies that are close to collapsing and will be tipped over the edge. Go on tell me one example???
Don’t get too upset with the Taff. If he thinks the UK has left the UK then he left reason behind years ago.
UK has already exited the UK according to the law.
You are talking complete twaddle.
As to your demand for ‘how Brexit will be positive. . ‘ you seem to be a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. What many of us want to do is restore our Democracy and uphold the rule of Law – the integrity of the Common Law. Had the EU remained a loose trading association most of us wouldn’t have much problem with it, but we object very strongly to it becoming a State and its meddling in every aspect of Life. I would also point out that the UKs position within this mess was becoming increasingly untenable because we are not members of the Euro. Ultimately we would have been forced to either join the Euro or Leave, so it is better to make the break now as we should have done at Maastricht.
@Mish wrote “The decision is up to the EU.”
I disagree. The EU doesn’t matter going forward. If there was going to be an agreement, it would have happened long ago.
England has no choice but to work around the EU — something Theresa May would have been doing the past couple years if she wasn’t a deliberate saboteur.
And going forward, England is a sovereign state and should negotiate with other sovereign states. The EU is just a useless collection of unelected bureaucrats, its not a sovereign anything.
The EU is not in control, in fact it doesn’t matter. Lots of smaller economies have already told Brussels to shove it (Ireland, Poland and most of eastern Europe). Italy isn’t going to cooperate with Brussels going forward. Merkel barely qualifies as a bench warmer.
I don’t agree with the statement below. If France benefits from throwing Ireland under a bus the Irish will soon see what the underside of a bus looks like.
“It would be unlike the EU to purposely throw another EU member under the bus.”
The EU commanded (yes, they used the word “command”) Ireland to put their corporate tax rates way up — to levels similar to France.
Ireland told Brussels to kiss their Blarney Stone… or something a little less diplomatic.
Quite. Look how the EU has treated Greece and Italy . . . and the Eastern bloc . . . and the UK even before there was any talk of Brexit.
Britain will be better off to quit talking about it and just leave. It’s not as if talks and negotiations on some aspects cannot be reopened afterwards.
Next steps for Johnson:
1) Tell his secretary, if the EU calls just pretend to take a message
2) Accept that trade with the EU will be on WTO terms, at least for the immediate future
3) Get his butt on a fast plane to Latin America and negotiate really good agricultural trade terms. The logistics and supply chain are already in place for winter months. Just make it year round
4) Propose and persue more open trade agreements with the USA, Canada, Australia, Africa, and southeast Asian countries
5) Ignore the tyrants in Brussels. Just ignore them completely. If any country on the continent would like better terms than WTO offers, be open to talks — but not with Brussels
Brussels is failing anyway. There is no point in wasting political capital with a bunch of tyrants who won’t negotiate and can’t deliver on anything anyway.
Focus on what you can control and will benefit England: agriculture trade with latin america (because the british people need to eat), and better trade agreements with growing economies.