Please note UK and EU Extend Brexit Talks After Ditching Deadline.
The European Union and Britain ordered their negotiators back to work Sunday after agreeing to abandon a supposed make-or-break deadline for a post-Brexit trade pact.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Boris Johnson had said last week they would decide whether an agreement was possible by the end of Sunday, but agreed in a crisis call to “go the extra mile”.“Our negotiating teams have been working day and night over recent days,” von der Leyen said in a video message, reading out a joint statement agreed with Johnson.
“We have accordingly mandated our negotiators to continue the talks and to see whether an agreement can even at this late stage be reached,” the leaders said, without offering a new deadline.
“Time to hold our nerve and allow the negotiators to inch progress forward, even at this late stage. Joint statement on Brexit negotiations is a good signal. A deal clearly very difficult, but possible,” Foreign Minister Simon Coveney tweeted.
Surprise Not
Yesterday, I wrote It’s Still Too Early for a Post-Brexit Breakthrough
Deadlines come and go. So what?
Deadline is Not Sunday
The deadline is not Sunday, December 13. The deadline is Thursday, December 31.
Although I wrote that yesterday, I am on the road and I scheduled it for this morning.
Here we are. Yet another deadline has come and gone. Surprise not.
Until Dec 31, the EU gave Barnier negotiating rights. Depending on the precise structure of a deal it does not necessarily have to be unanimous.
The deal will have to be ratified, but it appears that can be put off until next year as long as a deal is reached this year.
This is why I expect a minimal deal with bickering for years to follow.
Blame the EU
Make no mistake about this: This whole mess is mostly the EUs fault every step of the way.
They could have tossed Prime Minister David Cameron a bone. Had they done so there would not have been a referendum.
They could have not tried a choke hole on Theresa May. That led to Boris Johnson.
They could not have insisted that over time the UK would have to move to the Euro. That was the “two-speed” Europe fear. Curiously, they now appear to be headed that way over Poland and Hungary disputes.
Boris Johnson rightfully stood up to all of that.
The EU misjudged the resolve of the UK and tried to put the screws to them every step of the way.
If this deal does fall through, still not my expectation, blame the EU.
Mish
Is there a deadline that has actually come to pass as it was initially scheduled/threatened to?
This has been 4+ years of political theater and it looks like some actors are pushing for another extension to the run.
Why there will be an agreement?
Both sides have too much to lose and too little to gain without one.
So long as meticulous negotiation has the upper hand above political posturing, some deal will get done. The time of political posturing seems to have passed – very little to gain there.
My money is on an agreement. Brexit has always been Loose/Loose proposition in the SHORT term. What it will be in the Long term is anybody’s guess. It will always be government policies, appropriate regulation that will enable prospects. What Brexit does is ensure regulations are appropriate for UK rather than 28 countries when it was inside EU.
There is way too much to loose for both sides beyond economy. In the end the adults in the negotiating room will take over and get an agreement sorted.Thats my guess and thats as good as anyone’s in the current situation.
The fact is that the UK and EU will have to come to an agreement—sometime.
It’s just how much hurt the UK is willing to put up with before that happens.
The EU is a amorphous, nonthinking, worthless entity whose Frankenstein like would-be dictatorship was created by the arrogant, UNDEMOCRATIC Maastricht and Lisbon treaties signed during a brain fuddling, the sky is the limit, economic boom ! Btw, who the FCK is Ursula van der leyen, that she should negotiate on behalf of MY country(among others)? NOBODY in Belgium elected her, while WE risk 30K unemployed as a consequence of a fckn No deal ! Those smug, overpaid EU overlords, unlike our national flip floppers, don t give a shit about any constituency because they simply haven t got one ! Long live democracy in the EU ! All they care about are cushy jobs for themselves, for family and for friends, with impressive golden handshakes and eye watering pensions, not to mention legalized corruption bonuses while lobbying for multinationals… all tax free of course! I really don t understand how we ever got stuck in this stinking EU cesspool …..well, actually I do; all our national dickheads aspire a fckn job within the fckn cesspool in order to line their fckn pockets, not giving a damn about any constituency ! Forgive me my too colloquial vocabulary, this Brexit situation really pisses me off! The Brits definitely made the right decision, with long term benefits making up for potential short term economic pain, I d wish other countries would get the same democratic opportunity….but we won t, not with national pharisees aspiring a overpaid clown’s job in the circus anyway ….
and I’m sorry to say if you did get a vote, you’d keep getting them until they got the “right answer.”
yeah….like the Danish and the Irish….Maybe we all get another opportunity when the money printing capacity has reached its limits and with mosques on every street corner…
If you’re so worried about 30K unemployed with a Brexit, try to imagine Brussels without the EU …
Brussels? Who gives a shit about Brussels? Brussels lives off Flanders money, just like the perennial empty coffers, socialist Wallones’ bastion….
Don’t be so wishy-washy–tell me how you really feel…..
So where would you be happy to live?
What kind of a stupid question is that supposed to be ?
But how do you really feel?
….is this a fckn shrink session , or what ?
They troll.
You seem humor challenged. It was a joke question, because you told us exactly what you thought in hot-headed words.
The next question is serious–where would you like to live?
And why don’t you move there if you are so angry? Seriously, why not?
You like humour ? Ok , here we go: I d like to live in the Kremlin, with my friend Putin !
I forgot to say, Malcolm Tucker would be proud of you -:)
So the UK has the GDP similar to California, decent size but still an also ran. Brexit has taken up way more time than it is worth worrying about. Get on with it. BTW: The referendum won by less percentage wise than Biden!
First order effects of deal/no deal (there will be lots of additional effects)…
and a discussion of some follow-on effects….
Take anything published in Guardian with a massive dose of salt. UK press are quite biased. Guardian, Independent etc Pro European. Telegraph, Daily Mail – Pro Brexit. Even BBC has been ‘accused’ but not ‘proven’ to be biased when it comes to Brexit. The truth is somewhere in the middle of what gets published on those papers.
The UK has announced that four warships are tasked with escorting all EU fishing ships back out of its home waters.
I had a good laugh when I read that one this morning. What a bunch of chest thumbing bellicose crap.
Spanish Foreign minister@AranchaGlezLaya : “Trade deals are not about asserting independence, they are about managing interdependence.”
Yes correct as she mention in Sophie Ridge on Sunday in Sky News channel. What she failed to mention and answer in the interview and deflected was that she is not aware of/close to details of the unilateral mechanism for EU to slap tariffs with no arbitration on UK if EU feels UK’s divergence of regulations is distorting Trade. FWIW UK has already agreed to nonregression clauses with EU (and with Japan, Canada etc in continuity agreements). Its this unilateral mechanism and the so called ratchet clause/dynamic alignment they are against. Additionally UK regulations on Labour environment and state aid go way beyond many member states in EU. This is just EU being insecure that if UK succeeds after leaving EU then other members will follow suit.
So here is my question if Texas leaves the union, should they have the same access to NAFTA and none of the obligations? Do you think all 3 countries will be OK? Do you think that all of the states of the US will agree? The answer is no. Texas will start as a WTO partner and then go painfully one by one to other treaties.
You are probably comparing apples to pears. USA is federation of states, not nations. USA has fiscal transfer of wealth/revenues. EU yes but its tiny and majority goes to Common Agricultural policy. Also has Texas ever been a member of WTO?
Nevertheless the very construct of your argument is flawed when you say SAME access to NAFTA in your example. UK is NOT asking for same access as a Member state. As I said in a comment earlier UK will face multitude of checks that were never done before SPS checks, rules of origin and event certifications. What UK is seeking in return for the thin trade deal is appropriate obligations. UK is seeking similar to what EU agreed with Canada or Japan and is looking to sign up to similar obligations. I simply dont understand where majority of commentators here get the idea UK is not signing up to ANY obligations. Completely incorrect. EU is requesting as an obligation from UK to ensure if EU change a regulation in future say 20 years time then UK MUST follow or face UNILATERAL action by means of punitive actions. What UK is pushing back is it cannot be unilateral but be subject independent arbitration panel just like in any trade deal for disputes resolution.
That’s true–for the EU, a primary default is that there does have to be a penalty for leaving.
The primary stumbling block is that there is no rapid, effective mechanism for resolving disputes. And there have been no steps toward creating one.
There will be disputes, it is clear. And that is where any agreement will rapidly fall apart.
The optics require continued negotiatons even if it is clear that there are irreconcilable differences.
So, two more weeks of back and forth CAN lead to nothing.
EU optics require that the UK regret it’s move.
Yes, even if the EU also regret it, this is more important their nation’s economies.
It’s called cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Mish. You need to have a read deeper on this issue.
The good analysis, even from conservative pro brexit people, squarely hole Britain accountable for hopelessly handling the whole affair. Britain has been asking for the impossible.
You need to cut down your medication. Boris might have made mistakes but majority of UK still back him. We voted Leave to take back control and get rid of EU “masters”. End of story. If we can also get a deal then that is a bonus – not a prerequisite.
Very few “average Brits” even considered the Economic consequences.
Even by worst case scenarios a “WTO” deal will only cost us a week or so equivalent of what we are spending on Covid. Cheap at twice the price.
Oddly nothing you say conflicts with what I stated.
Have a deep read here and give yourself some context:
“A WTO deal” as you put it will crush British industry. Go have a look at your ports and see how much you export to the EU each day. Go look at the 10,000 pages of standands that you will have to build from scratch both to have some regulation in your own market and to be able to export to other markets.
Right this argument on impacts to UK etc needs to be tested a lot more. There are so many of these studies from various institutions all saying a wide range of impacts to UK. One needs to bear in mind that UK economy is 80% based on Services, partly why the impacts of covid lockdown was so pronounced relative to any other EU country. FWIW it wont be the trade deal, WTO deal etc that impacts UK economy but the policies of UK government and the environment they create for businesses to thrive and please UK businesses are not just car manufacturers exporting to EU, there are lot more.
” Go look at the 10,000 pages of standands that you will have to build from scratch both to have some regulation in your own market and to be able to export to other markets” – grossly incorrect. UK have already passed laws to update its statue book/regulations etc with current EU based ones. These were all completed for Jan 1st 2020.
Well, we can all speculate what will happen, or we can wait a couple of weeks and find out.
My suspicion is that the UK is woefully unprepared.
Mr North of flexcit fame, runner up closet remainer ? If I remember UK delayed its first referendum to post-accession after Norway was shaken, i.e. he is fifty years late on the option of not joining EU … to do that we first have to leave. Having done so I don’t think the UK will be interested in returning, at all.
A “no impact” Brexit is not possible.
The EU cannot allow an outside state the same rights as an inside state.
So far there has not been any of the infrastructure associated with being an outside state developed in the UK. Think of the border between the US and Canada and Mexico. There are no mechanisms for customs clearing or inspections. There is no dispute resolution system set up (WTO is a joke).
The UK thinks that their citzens should hsve the same rights as EU citizens in the EU. It cannot be.
Most countries in the world are not in the EU and many of them are quite prosperous. I would like to point out the the EU also wants their citizens to have rights in the UK and that has already been agreed upon. What you don’t like is that the UK let certain border functions deteriorate because they were no longer necessary and that these functions will now have to be built up again. So what. Conditions change and you build what you need.
Also Turkey, Norway and Switzerland are not in the EU yet they have good trade deals with them so getting into a huff over the UK asking for something similar is hypocritical. Just admit that that you must punish the UK for daring to get out and be finished with it.
Doug, yes the workd is full of countries that are not in the EU, but are doing just fine.
UK’s dependence on trade with the EU, and the desire to retain some or all of the EU membership benefits without the costs mean the UK is starting from a vastly different place tha the other countries you mention.
The UK has been pretending that they will not become an outside state with an outside state’s responsiblity to conform to what the EU wants.
As for Switzerland, 20 years of negotiations are still continuing and Switzerland DID NOT take the position that they wanted to develop standards independent of the EU
and not necessarily align standards (UK wants the ability to maintain non-EU conforming standards)….
A recent article about Swiss/EU negotiations..
…Everything began in 1992 when the Swiss refused to ratify the agreement on the country entering the European Economic Area in a referendum. This decision has since been followed by the conclusion of multiple agreements. The Federal Council indeed concluded a set of agreements called “Bilateral agreements I” in 1999, concerning agriculture, free movement of people, research, air and land transport, and government procurement. Starting from 2001, negotiations have focused on fiscal and savings rules, fight against fraud, and European border and migration management policy.
In brief, an exclusively bilateral approach is envisaged, with more than twenty different agreements and dozens of treaties. Despite the refusal to join the EEA, Switzerland and the EU have managed to have a privileged relationship and dialogue. This relationship remains essential today for both of the parties, considering the ever-increasing integration of border territories. This dialogue, though necessary, however seems more difficult today….
Yes of course it will not be easy but you cannot fault the UK for negotiating for a new deal and if that doesn’t work out then saying goodbye. You are one of those who believe that without the EU the UK will fall into a deep depression but trade patterns change and can change quite rapidly. The UK has alternative partners and ones that are bigger and have similar laws and customs. The UK will not remain in splendid isolation. The Five Eyes have almost twice the economic power of the Eu with few of the drawbacks for example. Switzerland has always been negotiating with the Eu and is successful in getting most of what they want. They have no wish to become a member.
“The EU cannot allow an outside state the same rights as an inside state.”
Why not? Does this mean protectionism is good for world trade and our economies? If not why is it OK for the EU to use it. Is it a “Europe first” policy, I seem to recall those sort of ideas aren’t always universally popular.
Simply because there must be a difference between in and out.
Just as the UK doesn’t want EU citizens entering at will, why should the EU allow UK citizens in at will?
A desire to leave an agreement and a publicly claimed desire to diverge from that previous agreement and yet things are not supposed to change for the leaving party?
It’s a foolish idea.
It’s the EU itself that’s the foolish idea.
A desire to leave an agreement and a publicly claimed desire to diverge from that previous agreement and yet things are not supposed to change for the leaving party?
I’m not suggesting nothing should change, that’s why the UK wanted to leave. However, if it’s mutually beneficial for an EU member to sell something to a UK company or citizen, why would or should a politician be able to block it? The EU should be prepared to trade freely with all non EU members if it’s mutually beneficial, not just the UK. There should be other reasons that warrant membership. If there aren’t, which is what these sort of arguments indicate, the merits of the whole EU project are suspect, which is of course the case.
The EU cannot allow an outside state the same rights as an inside state
That statement is grossly incorrect. UK’s exports after 31st December 2020 deal or no deal will be subject to non tariff barriers i.e rules of origin checks, SPS checks for animal products. So no UK will not have same rights. In services UK has not even asked for any kind of agreement in Trade provisions. Financial services providers in UK, primarily London will have “equivalence” rights from EU not guaranteed and can be withdrawn within 30 days notice.
So far there has not been any of the infrastructure associated with being an outside state developed in the UK – Partially correct. However UK have said they will waive any checks for 6 months starting Jan 2021. Using that time to build systems in place. They have started and have 900 Customs officers. Another 2,000 odd needed. They have provisioned unused airport in Kent to park trucks for goods inspection to minimise disruption at borders. Two trials have been completed already to try out options to manage traffic for starting Jan 2021. Underprepared – Yes but not unprepared.
The UK thinks that their citzens should hsve the same rights as EU citizens in the EU – Grossly incorrect. Freedom of movement ends Dec 31 2020 for both UK and EU. UK citizens have to apply for Visa for stays beyond 3 months at any EU member state. Also note professional qualifications are not being recognised between UK and EU so a licensed Doctor from UK cannot practice in EU country. This is a bit more complex though as its member states competence and not EU wide competence with visas etc. So UK can negotiate reciprocal arrangements if it likes.
I’m saying that there will be changes after Brexit–you seem to be saying that also.
Yes there are changes and UK has accepted those changes already. It has accepted UK citizens will need either International Drivers permit or special Green paper to drive using UK license in EU. No more reciprocal health care provisions in future etc.
What I am saying your statement that “The UK thinks that their citzens should hsve the same rights as EU citizens in the EU. It cannot be” is incorrect.
More to the point, I think@njbr you need to understand UK’s negotiating mandate for future trade and relationship. They have completely toned down any asks. What they did was take what EU agreed with Canada, South Korea, Japan etc and said this is all we need to be included in the agreement. UK’s argument to EU is basically ” There is a precedent for this in Trade agreement as you EU have done this with Canada or with South Korea etc”. When EU said it needs unfettered UK fishing water access UK replied “There is no precedent to what you are asking EU, We can do what you have done with Norway and negotiate annually”.
Few areas UK has asked for more than what EU offers others – Truck haulage drivers from UK having access to EU countries for example. So apart from that rest of the ask is all so thin for what UK and EU when as members in EU enjoyed for each others markets, Social security, judicial co-operation, foreign and diplomatic relations etc.
You do realize that negotiations took from 2009 to 2014 to get the Canada deal?
The ratification process in Europe took from Feb 2017 to May 2020.
The level of detail, coordination and evaluation simply hasn’t happened here.
AND, Canada was eager for the agreement.
Yes mate well aware of time spent in Canada negotiations and also aware of the Belgian state of Wallonia putting the spanner in the works during approval stage.
The key thing we all need to understand as to why is EU/UK trade deal is different to rest. So EU/Canada no trade agreement in past finding an agreement to remove barriers and deciding obligations, common standards/regulations, non regressions. So there is convergence of some of the parameters of Trade, regulations and competition rules, State aid etc. That does take time as both need to find common ground.
EU/UK trade agreement starting point is same regulations, standards, competition rules etc. But the aim for this to allow divergence in the future. So theoretically all both parties need is mechanism to take stock when there is divergence. Especially true as both parties have agreed to start with tariff free quota free agreement.
Any more time will still be spent talking the same things over and over. Despite Covid disruption to negotiations, it has been in the same state of play for almost 6 months and stuck on same disagreements. So a deadline here focusses minds. Another reason normal trade deal runs for ages, no deadline and there is no focus of minds to resolve differences but just keep talking.
The UK has announced that four warships are tasked with escorting all EU fishing ships back out of its home waters.
Boris just needs to cancel Brexit and admit that the entire idea/process was an elaborate joke.
Mish, no it will not be EU’s fault if there is no deal. The issue is that the UK wants access to the EU market without restrains (legal and standards). This will never be accepted by the EU (rightfully so) since it will give the UK rights into the market without any obligations. So if you are a member state your first question is “I want the same deal or I’ll leave”. Of course you think that the EU is dysfunctional because all members have to agree on everything before it is accepted. That is by design. EU must be a block or it is nothing. My guess is there is no deal you go ahead and blame the EU. BTW the EU made clear all of these before and during Brexit. The UK regular people will pay the price for a QANON driven vote just like we did with Trump.
Hold on here. The Brexit vote was on June 23, 2016. That predates Trump’s election by several months and at that time QANON was just a twinkle in who knows whose eye. Are you proposing a reverse conspiracy theory?
LoL by QANON I meant theory sold to the citizens that somehow the EU was a danger to their freedoms. That’s all
Sure it is, most definitely is oppressive by own experience. It is also supra-legal and unaccountable.
UK should not even negotiate via EU but directly with nations , sovereign country by sovereign country. You know what the sad reply by just about every government in europe would be ? “We can’t, we have to ask Brussels on that.”
It’s ok to give opinion from outside, but you aren’t going to get far telling people living in europe how it is , people who have a completely different experience .
In the meantime “enjoy the façade”.
“You know what the sad reply by just about every government in europe would be ? “We can’t, we have to ask Brussels on that.””
The UK never understood what the EU was to be. The idea of the EU is to finally become a union (just like the US). So just like the US trade policy will be at the end in the hands of EU and not the individual states. What is really sad is that people living in the US accept this and don’t accept the eventual idea of a unites states of Europe.
The UK understood and understands very well what the EU was to be and doesn’t want anything to do with it. The UK joined a Common Market and that was all.
There is absolutely no similarity between US states and European Nations. There are many many different cultures & histories within Europe, using different languages. Until recently they all used different currencies and that experiment isn’t going too well. Creating a United States of Europe is no easy task. The European people haven’t voted for a United States of Europe, progress towards it is done via the back door, it’s a slow creep towards a fait accompli. What is sad is that it is being imposed on millions of people without any say, which will probably end in civil unrest because the politicians will never give up their power and free lunches.
The US went into civil war to create the USA…. I think the EU is handling better
Every country in the world apart from North Korea has “access” to EU markets. I think what you are implying is tariff free quota free access. That in itself again isnt an issue but becomes one at future point if UK diverges its regulations(which was the point of Brexit in first place).
The whole reason for negotiations dragging is EU wants to make a unilateral call immediately at its whim if it thinks UK regulations have diverged from EU’s and it is distorting trade. UK is rightly saying, We are not members and we are not making rules so dont expect us to follow each and one of your rules. But Trade distortion decision cannot be unilateral and taken by one side. Basically ensuring its being done fairly in agreement. The likelihood of UK regressing from EU regulations is like 1 in a 100. UK’s regulations are far more stringent and robust compared to EU
The other reason fish is just a red herring. Once that Level playing field and State aid is resolved fish will be resolved. State Aid is still an issue because EU is saying EU funds for member states like Covid recovery funds and EU Investment bank loans must not be treated as State aid spending, but UK is saying if thats the case then British Investment bank loans and equivalent British covid spends must not be considered State Aid.Similar to regulations EU wants unilateral action here if there are breaches. State Aid there is high possibility of UK wishing to spend more than usual in past. Its an anathema for Conservative party except this one with Boris Johnson. However historically France and Germany have broken EU state aid rules more than any other members.
“We are not members and we are not making rules so dont expect us to follow each and one of your rules.”
This EU requirement has been know like forever.The problem as I see it is that the UK thinks they can negotiate something else. It ain’t going to happen.
“The issue is that the UK wants access to the EU market without restrains (legal and standards).”
That’s not true, the UK is prepared to grant the EU access to its markets on a free trade basis without requiring them to maintain UK standards, which are often higher than the EU’s. The EU aren’t prepared to reciprocate.
The EU market is bigger than the UK market so they will demand more. This will be the case with any deal the UK negotiates with any other country (The US comes to mind). As I see it the voters got duped by the Brexiters just like the US got duped by Trump. The difference is we are getting rid of him so our recovery will be faster. The UK (if it remains a UK and does not splinter) will last forever. Again, the people will pay the rich will get richer
No one was duped.
The monthly journey from Brussels to Strasbourg is typical of what’s important to the EU. A real Gravy Train. Despite the vote the move still takes place every month.
Move over to the Euro?? That is the worst idea I have heard in a while. I am not aware of that having ever been proposed but I might be wrong.
It was implied. Eurointelligence agrees with my comment. That is where I got the phrase “two speed Europe”
I see. It was a speculation. Myself I have never heard that as being serious but I could imagine the EU thinking of using it as a negotiating tool.
Agree with who’s to blame……even for the UK wanting to leave the EU in the first place. It never had to come to Brexit. The EU should consider that Britain might not be the only country that eventually gives them the finger…..and what that might mean.
But talk is better than no talk, at the point. I hope they can make some kind of deal and that everyone is allowed to save face.