I will dive into some of the more recent polls shortly, but every pollster now has a double digit lead for the Tories.
Opinium has the Tories leading by 19 points.
Any rational person should have expected this.
As noted a bit earlier, Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act.
Corbyn managed to change the election from a referendum on Brexit to a referendum on Corbyn.
Labour’s Radical Plan Highlights
- Increase government spending by a massive £82.9bn a year, about 4pc of GDP, all paid for by rising taxes
- A £400bn “national transformation fund”, which would “add to the government’s debt” but isn’t in the headline figures.
- Nationalisation of rail, water, energy, bus, mail, and broadband companies
- Seizure of 10 percent of the shares in every big UK company and handing the shares to workers
- Raise the corporate tax rate to 26% from 19%
- An £11bn windfall tax on the oil and gas sector
- Free broadband internet for everyone
- Free shelter for the homeless
- Super-rich tax rate
- Tax on second homes
- Raise £8bn via a Financial Transactions Tax
- Higher inheritance tax
- Force landlords to sell homes to tenants at a “fair” price as determined by Labour
No one in their right mind should vote for that.
Without a Doubt, Boris Johnson United the Tory Party
On November 21, I proposed Without a Doubt, Boris Johnson United the Tory Party
Upon further reflection, I am wondering if I have that correct.
Perhaps this is more accurate: Without a Doubt, Jeremy Corbyn has United the Tory Party.
I will crunch some possible numbers on this a bit later.
For now I will stick with my 88 seat majority for the Tories as noted in Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It will be Michael Foot all over again – the only difference is the demographics will hinder a Tory win. And still they want to leave the floodgates open. Madness
I’m disappointed that Labour won’t be funding the talking unicorn that I was hoping to get as part of the handouts or a stable for the beast.
Me and Spike (that’s what I was going to call him) could have ridden through the forest of magic money trees while discussing the finer points of cosmology, quantum mechanics and the contrasting philosophies of Neische and David Hume.
I live in a solidly Labour seat. Current betting odds are 4/1 ON for a Tory victory! Beware scruffy, bearded, old men offering sweeties (candy).
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Johnson’s likely victory will be something really, really undeserved. I expect the Conservatives to husband the economy better, but his failure to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement (note: he says he did, but was just offered a worse deal that was always available from the beginning to carve out NI) and his plans to hand over fisheries, economic regulation, tax policy and defence to the EU show that he is misrepresenting his deal entirely. This man is simply deceitful. He is not a conviction politician at all – not a Margaret Thatcher by any means. I will never vote in any election again.
a slightly different, and interesting, take:
Are the Tories peaking too early?
Has Labour peaked too early?
Even if not where is it going?
So Labour claim only the top 5% will be worse off. What would be the effect of their insane plans?
Here’s my take on it:
Uk stocks might initially benefit from the investment and deposit multiplier.
Upward pressure on inflation via the spending and wage rises.
Upward pressure on interest rates and bond yields as a consequence of the increased borrowing and above.
Government counters this by printing money via QE.
Stock market bubble eventually peters out, international investors no longer receive sufficient yield to justify the risk of holding sterling.
Uk stock market falls and a run on the pound ensues.
No government has ever been able to stop a rout on their currency other than by raising short term interest rates, which just stabilises it. Bonds fall.
Increase in interest rates causes mass hardship as people struggle to pay mortgages.
Recession, job losses and the most awful austerity follows.
Have I got this all wrong?
Spot on. Don’t forget that Corbyn and co are only looking at 1 term. He will retire before end 2024. All he has to do is spin the deception for a few years and then the Tories will come back to clear up the mess. Like last time, and the time before that and time before that….. Less than 20 days to go. I am not sure the public are convinced by the Labour magic money trees this time round. Not yet, anyway.
I disagree. Both Corbyn and McDonnel are lifelong revolutionary ideologues. They want to completely transform this country and they waited all their lives to do it. They won’t quietly go away after one term. They want the change to socialism to be irreversible.
Every aspiring Chavez, always claims that those who can afford to lobby him, and who constitute his social circle, and who he plays golf with, and who his children go to school with, and who contributes to his election campaign, and who he will ask for “advice” regarding “economic policy,” will be the only ones who lose out……
And the idiots keep believing…
Just got the leaflet from my local Labour candidate. It’s all green (instead of red) and makes no mention of Labour or Corbyn. Instead of the Labour official manifesto it talks about stopping climate change and Brexit.
Even Labour candidates don’t want to have anything to do with Corbyn and his antiquated insane manifesto.
Mish, The two most recent polls in your chart at top of the article, Deltapoll and YouGov, show a tightening of the “trend lines”. The gap between Tory and Labour is closing.
Whilst the average Tory lead appears to be still growing the latest 2 polls show it narrowing. Are the trend lines closing as in 2017 or is this a blip?
Compare pollster to the previous poll by the same pollster instead of looking at trends in the polls themselves.
The key point is what I said. Double digit leads for every pollster.
I did compare Deltapoll with previous Deltapoll and YouGov with previous YouGov. They both tighten. Obviously, I didn’t get that across in my first post. Apologies – happens with me quite a lot unfortunately. A combination of age and series of mini strokes 15 years ago.
There is a lot of variability in polls. A change of 1% is well within the margin of error.
I anxiously await polls after the launch of the Labour manifesto. Free everything appeals to a lot of people, even if it’s not credible.