Electoral Calculus has a nice MP projection calculator in which you can plug in estimates.
I used their advanced calculator, using regional numbers from table 38 on page 42 of the most recent ComRes Poll.
Starting Point Values
Electoral Calculus made the projections based off the numbers that I entered which in turn were from ComRes.
UKIP was my rounding bucket. I suggest Electoral Calculus should change the UKIP bucket to “Other”.
Any lines across that did not add up horizontally to 100, I tossed into UKIP except for the first line. If I rounded the first line up, putting 5% in UKIP, I got a majority of 92.
Admittedly this is just one poll. But it pretty much looks like all the rest.
I used ComRes because it provided the necessary regional breakouts.
Electoral Calculus Own Current Projection
Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus comes up with a majority of 72 based on polls polls from November 12 through November 19.
I came up with 88 using ComRes alone.
Polls November 12 Through November 19
A weighted sample is likely more accurate than the single latest poll. But please note that BMG is the last single-digit holdout.
Leads by Pollster – Most Recent Poll
- ComRes: 11
- YouGov 12
- Ipsos/Mori: 16
- ICM: 10
- Kantar: 18
- Survation 14
- DataPoll: 15
- Opinium: 16
- Panelbase: 13
- BMG: 8
Average Since November 11 (14 Polls)
- Tory: 42.43
- Labour: 29.43
- Liberal Democrat: 14.57
The spread of the averages is 13 percentage points (42.43 – 29.43).
Note that the current ComRes spread is only 11 percentage points.
17% of 2017 Labour Voters Considering Backing the Tories
The Telegraph has some interesting stats regarding the ComRes Poll.
The Savanta ComRes’ research found that the Conservative Party is current polling at 42 per cent of the vote, the highest lead the polling company has registered since before the last election.
Of those who cast their ballot for Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, 17 per cent would now think about supporting the Tories.
That is three times the amount of Tory voters who would think about switching allegiances to Labour, with just five per cent saying they’d vote for Mr Corbyn.
The Tories have the most consistent support among their base, with 94 per cent of their voters from 2017 thinking about backing them again this year.
Referendum on Corbyn
Poll after poll suggests the same thing: Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.
Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women.
Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
Johnson Unite the Tories
Without a Doubt, Boris Johnson United the Tory Party
Election in Three Weeks
No matter how one slices or dices the polls, unless they change dramatically and suddenly, Corbyn is going to lead Labour into the abyss.
Addendum – Seat Change Projections
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Jeremy Corbyn now says he’s going to stay neutral In his referendum, neither a leaver or a remainer. Does that make him a releaver.
Reminds me of the Monkees – “I’m a releaver”.
Hmmm. Where was it we heard those things?
Four days ago. Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.
Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women. Only 25% of women have Brexit as their number one issue.
Check out the undecideds! Only 10% of men are undecided vs a whopping 23.5% of women.
My key idea to answer my friend’s question is that the election has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn and away from a referendum on Brexit.
Mish, sounds like the folks at the Guardian read your blog! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/22/its-more-about-corbyn-than-brexit-the-lament-from-the-labour-marginals
Hmmm – Who was it that reported things like these?
“Women and younger voters seem to be staying with us, and older men are more angry.”
“It’s much more about Corbyn than Brexit,” they said. “I have people who are down as Labour supporters saying they won’t come out for me because of him.”
Where was that?
I am at a loss
There’s a revealing graph of how the Tories’ lead evaporated in 2017, straight after they published their disastrous manifesto.
itv.com/news/2019-11-22/three-weeks-from-election-day-how-much-could-the-polls-change
It’s the Labour manifesto that will prove to be a disaster
At least, this time the Tories will not shoot themselves in the foot with a programme designed to alienate their own core electorate.
A big push by Labour with the launch of their manifesto. The polls taken from today will be telling.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000bx5j
It’s funny that even “don’t know” is considered to be a better prime minister than Corbyn… 🙂
Something worth pondering in this context is what comes after Corbyn. Chances are that his shadow chancellor of the exchequer John McDonnell will be his replacement. At that point it will be time to really be concerned, because for some reason voters find this radical Marxist “trustworthy”.
In my view the Labour Party will split, Momentum and the Corbyn/McDonnell grouping on one side and the old Blairites and Labour centrists on the other.
Going forward a large Labour opposition with 200-250 seats will be split and result in 2 separate parties, with perhaps the Blairite/Centrists pulling in the rump of whats left of the Lib/Dems (who will not do as well as the media make out they will)
The result may be 2 parties with between 100-140 seats each, Tories with a majority and a sprinkling of Independents along with the SNP and DUP’s seats totaling 60 or so.
Corbyn/McDonnell will become irrelevant.
Just what I’m thinking at the moment…
If Labour loses badly and the Marxists try to stay in charge then a split is definitely in the cards.
“Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour”
Had it not been for BoJo’s warmongering idol, Winston Churchill, the Labour party would probably have disappeared into oblivion before it ever came to power in the ’20s.
Churchill: WWI (Liberal) First Lord of the Admiralty & cabinet member most enthusiastic about Britain’s disastrous entry into WWI.
Churchill: 1925 Chancellor of Exchequer returned Britain to gold standard at pre-WWI price, leading to Britain’s gold loss (mostly to US).
Churchill: WWII (Conservative) backbencher hounded Chamberlin for ‘appeasement’ leading to Chamberlin’s disastrous war guarantee to Poland’s Col. Beck, who broke off talks with Germans instead of granting them easier transit to E Prussia.
Johnson: 2020 PM of UK after ‘Brexit’, turns up heat on Russia to delight of US neocons.
Excellent point re: Poland guarantee, but I think Churchill had realized long before Chamberlain that the Nazis were gangsters who were violating every rule of civilized diplomacy to extend their tyranny.
Your parallel holds in another respect, too : Churchill was the heroic voice of the people, gifted with the poetic passion to inspire the democracies to resist and to hope and to never surrender ; Johnson cannot equal his hero, but his charisma and his oratorical turn of phrase could be crucial. “Where there is no vision, the people perish.”
This one person blog covers British politics more than the entire 600+ person staff of the Washington Post. Why is it so important?
If you want impeachment hearings watch WaPo
If you want stories on farting (I am serious) watch ZH.
There has not been a lot of economic news lately. I can cover British politics or US politics. The latter is coming soon enough and people won’t like that either.
I like it, better than the UK’s coverage.
You can’t call most of the media coverage, it is a lot of make believe and partisan. Mish much less so, you notice that people of opposing sides manage to share the page here ? I don’t know how important it is to be covering it though, but I guess if you don’t think it is important then there is no need to read related articles. Europe has a population roughly the size of the US I think, UK is a large part of that, plus the US is large part British and Irish descent, etc. etc. – I think it matters.
EU of the 28=550 m 27=495, US=385 ?
Infinity to one.
Corbyn leads Labour into the abyss….and Johnson will lead the way to Brexit.
Anyone want to give odds of Brexit now?
77% by electoral calculus.
They did not say so directly, rather that is their odds of a Tory Majority.
Nearly any majority will do. Perhaps even a minority.
I suggest about 85%