The Center Left was hammered but another “Grand Coalition” appears likely.
International Reaction
Here’s the International Reaction to German Election
Trump on Truth Social
“Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years. This is a great day for Germany.”French President Emmanuel Macron on X
“I just spoke with Friedrich Merz to congratulate him on his victory in the German elections. “I also had an exchange with Olaf Scholz to express my friendship on this evening. “We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.”British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
“Congratulations to Friedrich Merz and CDU/CSU for the results in Germany’s election.Ukrainian President Voldymr Zelensky on X
“I congratulate the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz on their victory in the Bundestag elections. A clear voice from the voters, and we see how important this is for Europe.“We look forward to continuing our joint work with Germany to protect lives, bring real peace closer to Ukraine, and strengthen Europe.
“Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe.”
How Long to Build a Coalition?
Had FDP and BSW managed to get 5 percent, a Grand Coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD may not have been possible.
Now it looks doable, but the results will be anything but Grand.
Regardless, with less than 30 percent of the vote, Merz Will Have a Very Weak Hand
Merz is set to become Germany’s next chancellor but he heads into coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand.
While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second worst post-war result.
It remains uncertain whether he will need one or two partners to form a majority.
Lengthy coalition talks could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months.
That would delay urgently needed policies to revive the German economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.
It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe as it deals with a host of challenges such as Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.
“We have eight weeks now until Easter, and I think that is enough time, enough maximum time in which to form a government … If we have one partner it will be easier, if we need two partners it will be harder, but even in that case it will have to be successful, ” Merz said during a post-exit poll roundtable with other leaders.
“The main thing is to create a government in Germany that is capable of acting as quickly as possible, with a good parliamentary majority. Because dear friends, the world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.”
Good luck with any quick parliamentary decisions. CDU and SPD disagree on green policy, immigration, defense, and industrial policy.
Merz would do better with AfD.
NATO Won’t Last in Present Form
The reaction from the winner is interesting. Please consider Merz Questions the Longevity of NATO’s ‘Current Form’
“I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week…it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Merz told German public broadcaster ARD.
Last week, the Trump administration shocked European allies by telling them they must take care of their own security and rely less on the United States, while announcing talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine without involving Europe.
Referring to a NATO summit scheduled for June, Merz said he was curious to see “whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form then or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.
On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with NATO’s mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.
He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the U.S. with regard to their nuclear umbrella, too, and advocated talks with Europe’s nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.
Without a doubt Europe will need to depend more on itself. Germany is deindustrializing and Trump demands more for Europe on defense spending.
Merz will not be able to deliver 5 percent or 3 percent. I question it it will deliver 2 percent.
Related Posts
January 10, 2025: The Political Crisis in France Is About to Get Much Worse
The entire eurozone is in shambles, and Trump’s demands will accelerate the crisis. One seriously must wonder if that is his real goal.
February 16, 2025: Vance Shocks Europe by Supporting AfD and Blasting EU’s Lack of Free Speech
Vice President J.D. Vance took off the gloves in Europe. Many European leaders are shocked. Good!
January 9, 2025: Trump Demands Defense Spending 5 Percent of Europe GDP, No Chance of That
Much of the EU is struggling to get defense spending up to 2 percent of GDP. 5 percent of GDP has zero chance. Let’s discuss the math.
Factor in tariffs. Germany is in political and economic trouble.
I don’t understand how the Greens won anything. I understand the news is focused elsewhere, but what is wrong with Germans to vote for that empty husk of a group of nimrods?
The brainwashed are everywhere.
are you sure Merz would do better with AFD? SPD is a wrecked party and they’ll only get a few important seats in the government. All relevant policies will be controlled by CDU (budget, economic affairs, etc). Then,
which basically means Trump (or Biden before would have thought the same) wants European countries to buy defense equipment and services from US companies. But what if, EU-based defense companies start producing more and sell more and help EU countries in reaching 3 4 5 % of GDP in military spending?
I
Good question
I don’t believe CDU will get all the important offices.
Regardless, there will be a big clash on green policy and immigration that would not happen if AfD was the partner.
Does Trump not realize that Merz, who is a former Blackrock exec, supports the UN/NATO/WEF and has ignored the fact voters wanted a coalition with the AfD. Maybe Trump knows that nothing will change for Germany in 2025, which means capital will continue to flow to the US.
All elections are the same. Approximately 50% vote right and 50% vote left.
It’s ridiculous and dangerous when the winner say every election night “People want this, people love me, etc.”
1) Why is Zelensky talking about a clear choice from voters. He has no voters in UKR 2) Dissappointed they did not start screaming about Nazis and Hitler.
3) Bet $1 that the deindustrialization mania is coming to an end.
I know a lot of Republicans don’t know this, but Zalensky was actually elected.
Not as of last May, 2024.
His term officially ended.
His public support is less than 10%.
He has refused to allow elections.
He could not get reelected in any scenario.
People who get their news from Donald Trump are hilarious.
Thanks for agreeing he was elected, though.
Zalensky is literally as much a dictator as Winston Churchill lol
People who get their news from CNN should look elsewhere. Everything he said about Zelenski is factual.
You’re having a slow day today. Stop. Get some help.
Powerful counter-argument
how is he going to have elections when the country is under invasion?
parts of the country are occupied by enemy forces… do they get to vote? for which district/state? it’s like if Texas and Massachisetts were occupied, with a large chunk of the population fleeing to other states, and the rest of the country was under threat from an invading force that wanted to take over all the US, how are you going to have elections??
if you lived in a congressional district or state and then are forced to evacuate to another one… which one do you vote in/for? how are you campaigning if you are running for office when you have to live in a hidden location so you don’t get killed, and when large public gatehrigs are not happenning because of bombing risk? use the little brains you have.
I’m a libertarian Republican and I understand he was elected 6 years ago to a 5 year term. He canceled elections last year, outlawed opposition parties, declared martial law, and banned opposition media then consolidated all media into a single government run outlet. You know, like a dictator would.
He declared marshal law because they were invaded and are at war. Imagine organizing an election when hundreds of thousands of men are away in trenches.
Let’s call all of them back east to vote, the Russians will wait.
Let’s have the chief commander of the armed forces campaign against someone with basically the same ideology for months. That won’t be distracting.
If only Churchill had brought all his troops home to vote every couple years, he wouldn’t be remembered as such a dictator.
Being this dense must hurt.
yes, but fact is you can’t have actual elections when the country is invaded. there’s been a huge migration of people. so where do they vote? if half of Texas flees to other states and there’s an election, how are those votes counted, for which state, which district, the one you fled to or your old one? many people fled to other countries but want to come back when it’s over. do they get absentee ballots?
hundreds of thousands of men are actively deployed. they’re in trenches. there is no functioning system where their votes can be realistically counted.
the media in Ukraine is under active attack and infiltration by Russia, which is also trying to kill politicians. how are you campaigning if you’re running?
if he had elections a year ago, was reelected, and the war was now over, would that election stand? would anyone in their right mind say, yeah that was a good election so he’s president for 5 more years? pretty sure opposition would argue not.
“Factor in tariffs. Germany is in political and economic trouble.
Merz would do better with AfD.”
Yep…
German manufacturers cannot survive in their present form with the current high cost of electricity. If the coalition that Merz puts together is not successful in bringing down electricity prices sooner than later, his government will collapse and the AfD will do better in the next election. Germany has not had a majority government since before the Weimar constitution was adopted in 1919. The last time the US imposed big tariff increases on imports (1930), Germany’s Nazi party went from being a minor party to winning a plurality of the votes in two national elections in 1932.
Merz is a lawyer, a son of a lawyer, a millionaire and a pilot. Angela crushed him after he tried to compete with her. He became a judge, entered big business, but after the CDU lost election in 2021 he became the head of the party in its third attempt to win election. He won. He might change his mind about AfD. Coalition with the left paralyzed Germany. Coalition with the right might rejuvenate Germany. The math: 28,6% CDU + 20.8% AfD = 49.4% + [11.6% Green or 16.4% Scholz]. Alice Weidel AfD partner is Sarah Bossard.
Big pendulum swinging..
Look out beyond that black hole in the universe.
Are you looking?
Can you see it?
Thirty years from now you’ll probably think how quaint the world was.
BACK THEN.
sleep well comrades…
Trump’s shock therapy brought results. He cured Germany from decades of guilt feeling and insecurity. Germany is extremely complicated nation with many people from different nations, different languages and religions. The new gov might rule with an iron fist. They will get along with Trump.
They will also get along with Putin and Svoboda Bandera. Their economy and industries will benefit from cheaper energy and minerals from Russia and Ukraine.
Rule with an iron fist? More like the CDU will fist the German people.
Oh yes, the Germans have nothing to feel guilty about.
Any of them born after 1945 don’t
sanity slowly returns to the world, its amazing what shuttering USAID will do for the world.
Given Merz’s reaction, America has lost Europe. Maybe Putin will be the only friend left. Even the Canadians are booing our anthem (and then they beat us).
Thumbs up for “losing Europe”. First of all, we shouldn’t own them. Secondly, we shouldn’t want to own them. The only function they serve is to occasionally tag along on our military misadventures so we can pretend those misadventures are some kind of joint action. They can try to make amends to Russia for their perfidy, but most Russians finally comprehend the depth of Europeon hatred of Russians.
I can see a new axis of evil Washington-Moscow forming in MAGA heads.
Nonsense. America was founded on the principle of trading with everyone and avoiding foreign entanglement
Star Trek fans recognize this as the Prime Directive. It would be nice if the USA similarly developed an official Prime Directive.
– “Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration”
> Man did they ever! They are wide awake Now, and I don’t mean woke, but AWAKE!!!
– “We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France” Says Macron.
> Can you seriously “Trust Him” or France for that matter? He’s the equivalent of a Zelensky, as with the wind…
Zelensky: “We look forward to continuing our joint work with Germany to protect lives, bring real peace closer to Ukraine, and strengthen Europe.”
How does war do that? Allegedly, there could have been peace in 2022, except for Boris Johnson butting in and it seems as if the war could have been prevented in the first place. If only we knew what has been going on in secret behind closed doors, in our name.
It looks similar to the 2010 Ukraine election map. Total polarization between eat and west. http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/2014/02/world/ukraine-divided/media/ukraine_map_region_vote.jpg
Har, har. Looking at the map, it looks like West Germany doesn’t want to join with East Germany in a political coalition. East Germany, that famously “far-right” land.
The part of Germany closest to Russia is the least paranoid about Russia.
They’re also the “Least” afraid. They know Russia is no threat to Germany, unless they F@$# with them, but that goes for everybody.
Which is also why Trump deals so well with Russia. He doesn’t play games, and nor does Putin, and the same goes for “Independence” from one another (see above) and it’s all good!
Reunification was the economic engine. Along with other labor arb in Eastern Europe.
Muslim Europe is doomed. Do not visit. Do not invest. Do not defend.
– Muslim Europe is doomed.
> Great play on words!
– Do not visit.
> Many parts are overly priced, overly crowded, and not overly safe…
– Do not invest.
> The EU = CA. “With Laws” that handcuff, Way “overly indebted”, and most egregiously, far too overly “Green”
– Do not defend.
> It’s really “Tough to Defend Stupid”
It does leave me a little clueless that suggesting that the US shouldn’t shoulder the vast majority of the military expense for the left … is right wing xenophobic, yada yada yada. WWII ended 80 years ago. I’m not MAGA … but anyone who sees the US economy and thinks we can continue to play world policeman for free is not thinking.
It was George Washington himself, in his farewell address, who warned against entangling alliances. Radical concept.
And Thomas Jefferson agreed:
“Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none.” Thomas Jefferson
To the US it obviously is.
How do you play world policeman when foreign and economic policy now has the CCP sailing 3 aircraft carriers, stealth jets, a working space initiative, hypersonics etc. The US consumer, like a herd of sheep with cash, paid for all of it.
– How do you play world policeman?
Great question, but I have a better one for you…
How do you play world policeman, when you can’t get a grip on unmanned, unequipped “Drones” the size of School Buses (Harris/Biden Presidency of course) flying around Our Neighborhoods, like they “Own The Place”?
You become the world policeman when you fund 90% of Ukraine spending (US: $200B, all of Europe combined: $20B) … when you fund most of NATO … when you fund the Iron Dome in Israel, and when yoiu have something like 900 bases around the globe. And instead of paying for any of the protection … we pay these countries to use their land and resources. It’s a great gig … if you’re hosting a US base. We pay you billions and protect you.
Rather, we pay you billions and occupy you.
Except we paid hundreds of billions and didn’t occupy