Judging from early results and projections, the Conservatives led by Friedrich Merz but a coalition will be troubling.
Merz Claims Win for CDU
CNN reports Merz claims win for German conservatives as far right surges to second place
Election Highlights
- Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next German chancellor after his conservative CDU party topped the vote in elections, exit polls project. The stuttering economy and immigration were major voter concerns.
- The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) almost doubled its vote share and surged into second place. But it is likely to be frozen out of power as other parties are refusing to work with it.
- SPD, the party of current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, slumped to third place, with just 16% of the vote – its worst showing in decades.
- The election came against a backdrop of the Trump administration transforming historic security ties with Europe and moving ahead with peace talks on Ukraine.
- Whoever wins, coalition talks are a near-certainty. Single parties rarely win majorities in German elections so Merz will have to open talks with other parties on forming a government.
Live Updates
It will be harder to form a coalition the more fringe parties hang on. Die Linke will survive and BSW is right on 5.0 Percent.
Reuters has live updates noting Conservatives win but refuse talks with second placed far-right AfD
The leader of Germany’s pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), Christian Lindner, said he will leave active politics.
“The German election brought defeat for the FDP, but hopefully a new start for Germany. This is what I fought for. Now I will leave active politics, with just one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intense and challenging years full of creation and debate.”
The FDP look set to miss the 5% threshold needed to win parliamentary seats.
Linder served as finance minister during Olaf Scholz’s awkward three-way coalition. The FDP effectively triggered the snap election by abandoning the coalition in a dispute over government spending and the budget.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said whether the next government would be a coalition of two or three parties will not make a huge difference.
“A three-party alliance would be more difficult to handle, see the old three party ‘traffic light alliance’ which eventually foundered.”
“But in terms of policies, the difference between a coalition of two or three mainstream parties would not be huge. In any case, it would be an alliance of centre-right and centre-left forces.”
Read more reaction from analysts and economists here.
Are you getting reports of massive fraud?
Geographically speaking, looking at the map above the following things are clear:
1) AfD dominated in former East Germany and a curious area southwest of Frankfurt. 2) CDU/CSU dominated in the south, west, and northwest portions – areas with the strongest connection to Europe. 3) Lower-population areas in the north along the North Sea and Baltic Sea are more likely to not be mainstream with most “Other” and the only SPD province. 4) “Other” is also dominant in the southwest, which borders France and Switzerland with Stuttgart is the main city.
The old East/West Germany is by far the most striking pattern. This was not unexpected but the voting map really shows how strong it is.
What other geographic patterns do you see?
There is talk that this time, it will not be the “traffic light coalition” but instead, the “Afghan flag coalition” (black, red and green) with a combined majority of about 57 percent.
Could be the Palestine flag too 🙂
Breaking news: Germany is still gay!
At least one talking head suggested another election six months down the road, since the natural coalition of CDU/CSU with AfD is ruled out by the former.
There is no viable stable alternative, but the German political establishment, i.e. MSM, “think tanks” won’t even contemplate it.
Only a deep recession will change that.
A hatred of Ellen Mush and Donald Trump might force a quick coalition together – America is hated across Europe now – they see Trump trying to swindle resources right out of their own back yard while betraying them to Putin.
Trump does whatever Elon & Putin tell him to do.
Just wait until Xi enters the chat.
Good luck with that
Nice to see so many parties running. Would like to see at least one more party in the US, but the two existing parties don’t seem to allow that to happen. More parties might reduce the high level of divisiveness in the US. Heck, with a third party, I might even get out to vote some day.
It’s the big donors who don’t let it happen, as they don’t donate millions of dollars to third party candidates.
Ours is not a parliamentary system.
-4?
Who on earth would downvote that.
Your last sentence is curious. There are numerous minor parties, but evidently you are waiting for others to make one more significant on the national level? A plurality don’t vote in U.S. presidential elections, so there are plenty of votes to be had for another party!
https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_political_parties_in_the_United_States
Trump 2.0 Brings Cuts to Cyber, Consumer Protectionsget ready to be hacked
your on your own https://krebsonsecurity.com/2025/02/trump-2-0-brings-cuts-to-cyber-consumer-protections/
SPD worst showing since 1887
So basically they selected the evil Blackrock bustard and Germany will continue down the path of destruction